In Hot Water: Climate and Water in the West

Transcription

1 In Hot Water: Climate and Water in the West Pacific Gas and Electric San Francisco, CA March 25, 2008 Barry Nelson Western Water Project Natural Resources Defense Council San Francisco, CA 1

2 In Hot Water -- Key Contents Water-related climate impacts In Hot Water -- Key Contents Water-related climate impacts Climate-related activities involving water decision makers in the West 2

3 In Hot Water -- Key Contents Water-related climate impacts Climate-related activities involving water decision makers in the West Framework for incorporating climate issues into water management Human-Caused Climate Change is Underway Source: National Assessment Synthesis Team Climate Change Impacts on the United States. Report for the United States Global Change Research Program. Cambridge Univ. Press. 3

4 Water Management Impacts Water Management Impacts Snowpack loss 4

5 Water Management Impacts Sea level rise (Golden Gate) Source: USGS Fact Sheet Water Management Impacts Earlier and larger peak streamflows More frequent and extreme droughts and floods Potential reductions in total streamflows 5

6 Water Management Impacts Drier summers Greater evaporation Water Management Impacts Temperature impacts - ecosystem 6

7 Water Management Impacts Temperature impacts - demand Water Community Analyses AWWA Report Climate Change and Water Resources: A Primer for Municipal Water Providers (2005) State of California Progress on Incorporating Climate Change into Management of California s Water Resources (2006) 7

8 In Hot Water -- Recommendations Vulnerability Analysis Response Strategies Prevention Public and Decision Maker Awareness In Hot Water -- Recommendations Vulnerability Analysis Response Strategies Prevention Public and Decision Maker Awareness 8

9 Vulnerability Analysis Location precipitation predictions based on latitude Watershed characteristics -elevation, soils, aspect, vegetation Allocation over allocation/already stressed Changes in runoff Diversity of water supply Flood control Water quality Endangered species / aquatic ecosystem impacts Vulnerability Analysis There are a large number of potential effects on California water resources infrastructure due to global warming. Much depends on the degree of warming and whether future changes are large or small. - California Water Plan Update 2005 Accounting for Climate Change Vol. 4, p

10 Vulnerability Analysis Agency Analyses -- Denver, Seattle, Portland, East Bay MUD, Santa Clara Valley WD Regional Analyses Sierra Nevada Foothills (CABY) State Analyses California and New Mexico In Hot Water -- Recommendations Vulnerability Analysis Response Strategies Prevention Public and Decision Maker Awareness 10

11 Response Strategies -- Highlights Climate impacts on future water tools Response Strategies -- Highlights Climate impacts on future water tools Integrated regional water management 11

12 Response Strategies -- Highlights Climate impacts on future water tools Integrated regional water management Integrating energy issues into water management Performance of Water Management Tools Today 12

13 Climate Change Impacts on Performance of Water Tools Climate Change Will Make Some Tools More Effective Increased evapotranspiration 13

14 Climate Change Will Make Some Tools More Effective Increased evapotranspiration Landscape conservation Conservation rate structures Agricultural water conservation Water marketing Climate Change Will Make Some Tools More Effective More extreme weather events Higher peak streamflows Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources 14

15 Climate Change Will Make Some Tools More Effective More extreme weather events Higher peak streamflows Floodplain management Urban stormwater management Watershed restoration System reoperation Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources Climate Change Will Make Some Tools More Effective Sea level rise 15

16 Climate Change Will Make Some Tools More Effective Sea level rise Groundwater intrusion barriers Source: Solinst Canada Climate Change Will Make Some Tools More Effective Landscape conservation Conservation rate structures Agricultural water conservation Water marketing Floodplain management Urban stormwater management Watershed restoration System reoperation Groundwater intrusion barrier 16

17 Climate Change Will Make Some Tools More Effective Landscape conservation Conservation rate structures Agricultural water conservation Water marketing Floodplain management Urban stormwater management Watershed restoration System reoperation Groundwater intrusion barrier Integrated regional water management Climate Change Will Make Some Tools More Effective Landscape conservation Conservation rate structures Agricultural water conservation Water marketing Floodplain management Urban stormwater management Watershed restoration System reoperation Groundwater intrusion barrier Integrated regional water management Incorporating energy issues 17

18 Climate Change Will Not Reduce the Effectiveness of Some Tools Wastewater recycling Interior water conservation Groundwater clean up Climate Change Will Reduce the Effectiveness of Some Tools Traditional surface water diversions Surface storage projects Traditional groundwater pumping 18

19 Climate Change Will Reduce the Effectiveness of Some Tools Traditional surface water diversions Surface storage projects Traditional groundwater pumping All rely on historic, natural hydrology Climate Impacts on Traditional Surface Water Diversions Shorter and earlier high flow periods Lower summer flows Potential reductions in total streamflows 19

20 Climate Impacts on New Surface Storage Impacts that may decrease yields Snowpack loss Earlier and larger peak streamflows -- more flood reservation space More extreme weather events -- floods and droughts Drier summers -- higher evaporative losses Temperature increases -- fisheries impacts Climate Impacts on New Surface Storage Impacts that may increase yields in highly developed watersheds Increased uncaptured spills from existing facilities 20

21 Climate Impacts on New Surface Storage Warmer conditions across the Colorado River are likely to contribute to a reduction in annual runoff and streamflow. National Research Council. Colorado River Basin Water Management. Feb Climate Impacts on New Surface Storage Immediate prospects for major new water supply reservoirs or inter-basin transfers are limited. National Research Council. Colorado River Basin Water Management. Feb

22 Climate Impacts on Traditional Groundwater Pumping Shorter natural recharge periods Greater evaporation during drier summer months What About Desalination? Source water less affected than traditional sources 22

23 What About Desalination? Source water less affected than traditional sources Sea level rise presents design issues What About Desalination? Source water less affected than traditional sources Sea level rise presents design issues High energy requirements 4,000+ kwh/acre-foot 1/3 more energy than So. Cal s next most energy-intensive option Energy requirements are declining 23

24 Summary -- Performance of Tools After Considering Climate Impacts Lower future yields from historic hydrology -- traditional snowpack, surface and groundwater sources Summary -- Performance of Tools After Considering Climate Impacts Lower future yields from historic hydrology -- traditional snowpack, surface and groundwater sources Higher or unchanged yields from efficiency and recycling 24

25 California s State Water Plan Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources Key Strategy -- Integrated Regional Water Management Cross-agency Watershed-based Address multiple issues Water supply Water quality Wastewater Flood management Ecosystem Etc. 25

26 Key Strategy -- Integrated Regional Water Management Potential multiple benefits (supply, quality, wastewater, ecosystem, energy, greenhouse gas reductions, flood management) Key Strategy -- Integrated Regional Water Management Potential multiple benefits (supply, quality, wastewater, ecosystem, energy, greenhouse gas reductions, flood management) Potential cost savings 26

27 Key Strategy -- Integrated Regional Water Management Potential multiple benefits (supply, quality, wastewater, ecosystem, energy, greenhouse gas reductions, flood management) Potential cost savings Funding and implementation partners (i.e. energy, land use, stormwater and wastewater) Key Strategy -- Integrated Regional Water Management Potential multiple benefits (supply, quality, wastewater, ecosystem, energy, greenhouse gas reductions, flood management) Potential cost savings Funding and implementation partners (i.e. energy, land use, stormwater and wastewater) Key tool to maximize new water sources 27

28 Case Study -- Integrated Regional Water Management Santa Ana River Watershed -- Tools Groundwater desalters Methane digesters -- cow power Dairy waste composting Groundwater recharge using stormwater and treated waste water Case Study -- Integrated Regional Water Management Santa Ana River Watershed -- Benefits Water supplies Reduced reliance on imported water Reductions in groundwater contamination Flood management Enhanced wetlands Marketable organic composted dairy waste Reduced air quality problems Renewable energy generation Reduced energy use and greenhouse gas emissions Marketable greenhouse gas credits 28

29 Case Study -- Integrated Regional Water Management Santa Ana River Watershed -- Benefits Water supplies Reduced reliance on imported water Reductions in groundwater contamination Flood management Enhanced wetlands Marketable organic composted dairy waste Reduced air quality problems Renewable energy generation Reduced energy use and greenhouse gas emissions Marketable greenhouse gas credits Easier implementation Case Study -- Integrated Regional Water Management Santa Ana River Watershed -- Benefits Water supplies Reduced reliance on imported water Reductions in groundwater contamination Flood management Enhanced wetlands Marketable organic composted dairy waste Reduced air quality problems Renewable energy generation Reduced energy use and greenhouse gas emissions Marketable greenhouse gas credits Easier implementation State and federal funding 29

30 Key Strategy Integrating Energy into Water Management Key Strategy Integrating Energy into Water Management Energy utilities should be strong funding partners in water conservation programs 30

31 Energy Impacts of Water Supply The State Water Project represents 2-3 % of CA electricity consumption Energy Impacts of Water Supply The State Water Project represents 2-3 % of CA electricity consumption Water agencies (Ca. Energy Commission) 19 % of CA electricity consumption 30%+ of natural gas 31

32 Case Study -- Electricity Savings from Conservation In San Diego, energy savings from relying on conservation instead of additional deliveries from the Bay-Delta to provide 100,000 acre-feet would be approximately 770 million kwh Enough electricity for 118,000 households for year 25% of the household electricity use in the City of San Diego Integrating Energy and Water What s New? CARB - AB 32 implementation CEC - Water/energy standards for buildings, appliances and irrigation PUC - Pilot water/energy projects Legislature 32

33 In Hot Water -- Recommendations Vulnerability Analysis Response Strategies Prevention Public and Decision Maker Awareness The Public Context 86% of the California public believes that global warming will affect current or future generations. Public Policy Institute of California Survey, Special Survey on the Environment, July

34 Prevention Local Cities for Climate Protection Campaign Prevention Local Cities for Climate Protection Campaign 800 cities world wide 30+ Western cities with municipal water agencies Marin Municipal Water District 34

35 Prevention Local Cities for Climate Protection Campaign U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement Prevention Local Cities for Climate Protection Campaign U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement 500 mayors 52 Western cities with municipal water agencies 35

36 Prevention Local Cities for Climate Protection Campaign U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement Public/Private Partnerships Prevention Local Cities for Climate Protection Campaign U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement Public/Private Partnerships Sustainable Silicon Valley High tech businesses City and county governments Santa Clara Valley Water District 36

37 Prevention State Comprehensive Gubernatorial Initiatives Comprehensive California Initiative Global warming threatens California's water supply, public health, agriculture, coastlines and forests - our entire economy and way of life. We have no choice but to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, July 3,

38 Comprehensive Arizona Initiative Arizona and other Western States have particular concerns about the impacts of climate change and climate variability on our environment, including the potential for prolonged drought, severe forest fires, warmer temperatures, increased snowmelt, reduced snow pack and other effects. - Governor Napolitano s Climate Change Executive Order, February 2, 2005 Comprehensive Oregon Initiative Coastal and river flooding, snowpack declines, lower summer river flows, and increased pressure on many fish and wildlife species are some of the effects anticipated by scientists at Oregon and Washington Universities. - Oregon Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reductions, Governor s Advisory Group on Global Warming 38

39 Comprehensive New Mexico Initiative The southwestern United States will likely suffer significant impacts from such temperature changes, such as decreased annual precipitation, faster evaporation of surface water supplies, and increased runoff at the end of winter when snowmelt will melt faster. -Governor Bill Richardson, Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Executive Order, June 9, 2005 State-Level Programs To Reduce Carbon Pollution Automobile tailpipe emissions (e.g. California s AB 1493) Appliance standards Renewable energy generation requirements -- renewable portfolio standards 39

40 State-Level Programs To Reduce Carbon Pollution AB 32 The Nation s First Mandatory State Cap on Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Sept. 2006) State-Level Programs To Reduce Carbon Pollution AB 32 The Nation s First Mandatory State Cap on Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Sept. 2006) Supported by Santa Clara Valley Water District East Bay Municipal Water District Marin Municipal Water District 40

41 Prevention - National Mandatory Federal Limits on Global Warming Pollution Safe Climate Act (Waxman HR 1590) Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (Sanders - Boxer S. 3698) Climate Security Act (Lieberman-Warner S Prevention - National Water managers can help change the climate debate 41

42 In Hot Water -- Recommendations Vulnerability Analysis Response Strategies Prevention Public and Decision Maker Awareness Public Awareness A Call For Action On Climate Change The science is clear 42

43 Public Awareness A Call For Action On Climate Change The science is clear Water management implications are serious Public Awareness A Call For Action On Climate Change The science is clear Water management implications are serious Water managers are respected community leaders in the West 43

44 Water Agency Leadership Regarding MTBE "Communities really need to be concerned about MTBE because it spoils the water system. If Congress allows the oil industry liability immunity, the communities will be the ones paying the tab for the MTBE water pollution clean-up. -Jack Hoffbuhr, Executive Director of AWWA 5/03 MTBE Threatens Thousands Of Public Drinking Wells Science Daily Arizona Bans Gasoline Additive MTBE The Heartland Institute Water Leader Leadership Regarding MTBE The science was clear Water management implications are serious Water managers played key role in urging rapid action 44

45 Public Education Water managers can help change the climate debate In Hot Water -- Conclusions The climate is changing Serious water management implications Public and decision-makers look to managers for leadership 45

46 In Hot Water -- Conclusions The climate is changing Serious water management implications Public and decision-makers look to managers for leadership Water managers can change the climate prevention debate In Hot Water -- Conclusions The climate is changing Serious water management implications Public and decision-makers look to managers for leadership Water managers can change the climate prevention debate Broad array of options to respond to climate change 46

47 In Hot Water -- Recommendations Vulnerability Analysis Response Strategies Prevention Public and Decision Maker Awareness Water Districts Taking Action Water Utilities Climate Alliance Denver Water, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, New York City Department of Environmental Protection, Portland Water Bureau, San Diego County Water Authority, the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, Seattle Public Utilities and the Southern Nevada Water Authority, WUCA members supply drinking water for more than 36 million people throughout the United States. 47

48 The Past The Future 48