Observed Climate Change and the Negligible Global Effect of Greenhouse-gas Emission Limits in the State of Washington

Transcription

1 Observed Climate Change and the Negligible Global Effect of Greenhouse-gas Emission Limits in the State of Washington [202]

2 Contents Summary for Policy Makers 3 Observed Climate Change in Washington 4 Annual Temperatures 4 Seasonal Temperatures 5 Precipitation 6 Drought 8 Snowpack 8 Agriculture 11 Sea Level Rise 12 Impacts of State Mitigation Measures 17 Costs of Federal Legislation 20 Washington Scientists Reject UN s Global Warming Claims 21 References 22 2

3 Summary for Policy Makers T hrough an Executive Order, Washington s Governor Christine Gregoire has set ambitious goals for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions originating from the state of Washington. By 2020 she has set the goal to reduce the state s emissions to what they were in Additional goals include 25% below 1990 levels by 2035 and 50% below 1990 levels by However, nowhere does she present an analysis that demonstrates to the people of Washington what meeting those reduction goals would mean for the future climate of the state she governs. Nowhere does the Governor present an analysis that demonstrates to the people of Washington what meeting those reduction goals would mean for the future climate of the state she governs. The likely reason that such an analysis is inconspicuously absent is that it would show that actions to reduce greenhouse gases in Washington have no impact on local, regional or global climate. In this report, we provide an overview of the observed climate history of Washington with an eye towards any signs that global warming may be impacting the state. While temperatures generally appeared to have risen slightly across the state over the past century, precipitation changes have been largely limited to the early portion of the 20 th century, and other climate impacts, such as drought and snowpack variations are significantly influenced by natural variations and cycles driven in part by decadal variations in the Pacific atmosphere/ocean system. Further, future sea level rise will be muted by Washington s tectonic processes which generally act in opposition to rising oceans by raising the level of the state s coastlines. We also demonstrate how fruitless any efforts at greenhouse emissions limitations will be on the climate. In fact, even a complete cessation of all carbon dioxide emissions originating in Washington would produce no detectable or scientifically meaningful impact on local, regional, or global climate. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the economic, social and political consequences of greenhouse gas emissions legislation they have been recently estimated to be large, and negative, for the citizens of Washington. 3

4 Observed climate change in Washington Annual temperature: The historical time series of statewide annual temperatures in Washington begins in Over the entire record, there has been a slight upward trend, which has resulted in temperatures in the early 21 st century being about 1ºF warmer than temperatures at the beginning of the previous century. Despite this long-term rise however, the record is largely dominated annual and decadal-scale variability. The run of recent warm years comes on the heels of a period of steady to slightly falling temperatures that extended from the early 1930s through the mid 1980s. The highest annual average statewide temperature in Washington was recorded in Washington annual temperatures, Annual mean temperatures Figure 1. Annual statewide average temperature history for Washington, (available from the National Climatic Data Center, 4

5 Seasonal temperatures: Likewise, there are no unusual long-term seasonal temperature trends in Washington. Recent warming trends during the winter and summer seem to be offset by recent cooling trends during the spring and fall. Instead of strong long-term trends, year-to-year and/or decade-to-decade variability is most evident. In no season do recent temperatures appear out of the ordinary when compared with the observed temperature history. There is no evidence of unprecedented climate change. Washington seasonal temperatures, Seasonal mean temperatures Winter Spring Summer Fall Figure 2. Seasonal statewide average temperature history of Washington. (Source: National Climatic Data Center, As a back drop to state temperatures, it should be considered that average global temperatures have been in decline in recent years, and are currently sharply below normal. This hardly portends planetary catastrophes being prophesied by some. 5

6 Precipitation: The precipitation history of Washington indicates that the early portion of the 20 th century was typically drier than the time since, and therefore, the long-term record exhibits an apparent overall upward trend. However, much like the state s temperature history, the statewide precipitation totals show strong annual-to-decadal scale variability. The 1910s and 1920s were relative dry, while the 1950s and 1960s were relatively wet. Since then, recent decades have seen a variety of wet and dry years. Nothing in this pattern of precipitation resembles changes driven by a strong influence 6

7 from anthropogenic global warming, but instead, is more reflective of ongoing natural variability. Washington annual precipitation, Figure 3. Statewide average precipitation history of Washington. The early 20 th century was a drier period in Washington than the time since (source: National Climatic Data Center, Nothing in this pattern of precipitation resembles changes driven by a strong influence from anthropogenic global warming, but instead, is more reflective of ongoing natural variability. 7

8 Drought: Since 1895, there has been a slight overall trend towards wetter conditions across Washington, primarily the result of the extremely dry period that characterized the 1920s and early 1930s. Despite this long-term trend however, clearly evident is the fact that annual and decadal variations play a large role in the pattern of long-term moisture status across the state and both dry periods and wet periods occur with regularity in the natural climate of Washington. Washington drought severity, Palmer drought severity index Figure 4. Monthly statewide average values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the state of Washington, (data from the National Climate Data Center, Snowpack: Much of the state s water supply comes from the melting of the annual snowpack that accumulates over the winter and spring in the Cascade Mountains. Widespread recording of the Cascade snowpack only began in the 1950s and trends since then indicate a decline in the late spring snowpack on the order of 20-40%. A few, mostly higher elevation locations have snowpack measurements that extend back to around 1930, and these records show that the overall snowpack decline is less than in the records that begin in the mid-1950s (Mote et al., 2008a). A proxy reconstruction of the snowpack using stream flow records and other climatological data confirms the reduced trend (Stoelinga et al., 2008). The trend differences arise because the mid 20 th century was characterized by high annual snowfall totals, while the 1930s and the end of the 20 th century were characterized by relative lower annual totals. 8

9 Cascades reconstructed April 1 Snowpack, Figure 5. The reconstructed April 1 snowpack (SWE) in the Cascades, showing the long-term trend and its confidence intervals (National Climate Data Center, Stoelinga et al., 2008) Some of the variations in historical snowpack conditions across Washington can be related to large-scale patterns of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns in the Pacific Ocean. These patterns, primarily the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Index (NPI) are naturally occurring quasi-oscillations with periods on the order of a few decades and which are known to impact many aspects of the climate and ecology of the Pacific Northwest. There is some concern that even after the possible influence from these natural cycles are accounted for, there is still an overall decline in the state s snowpack since the mid-20 th century (Mote et al., 2008a). And rising temperatures from anthropogenic global warming is often discussed as a possible explanation. However, the character of the global temperature record since the mid-20 th century little change from the mid 1940s through the mid-1970s and then a relatively steady rise thereafter does not fit well with the character of the Cascade snowpack record, which 9

10 shows a large decline from the early 1950s through the late-1970s, and then little change (or even a slight rise) from the late-1970s through the present (Stoelinga et al., 2008). In fact, the winter of had the greatest snowpack on record at several locations across the state. Figure 6. The reconstructed April 1 snowpack (SWE) in the Cascades, showing the long-term trend and its confidence intervals (National Climate Data Center, Stoelinga et al., 2008) Thus, a closer review of the snowpack records across Washington shows that as is the case with the other climate elements that we have reviewed, Cascade snowpack is largely dominated by year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability which makes the determination of a long-term trend difficult to establish and even more difficult to assign a cause to. While some are quick to assign the blame to man-made global warming, a careful look at the data, and the complex interactions of natural processes that lie behind them, is not forthcoming as to causality attribution. The winter of had the greatest snowpack on record at several locations across the state. 10

11 Agriculture: Agriculture is the number one employer in Washington. The state s farmers and ranchers produced crops and livestock totaling $6.7 billion in 2006 contributing to the state s $34 billion agriculture and food industry making up 11% of the state s economy and providing jobs for 160,000 people. Across the state, the annual yields from field crops such as wheat, potatoes, and corn, have risen dramatically during the past 100+ years, while, as we have seen, the climate in Washington has changed relatively little. This is clear indication that factors other than climate are largely responsible for the rapid yield rise. Crop yields increase primarily as a result of technology better fertilizer, widespread irrigation, more resistant crop varieties, improved tilling practices, modern equipment, and so on. The level of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a constituent that has a proven benefit of aerial fertilization for plants 1, has increased as well. The relative influence of weather is minimal compared with those advances. While temperature and precipitation show but small long-term trends, they are likely responsible for some of the year-to-year variation in crops yields. Even under the worst of circumstances, minimum crop yields continue to increase. Through the use of technology, farmers continue adapting to the climate conditions that traditionally dictated what they did and how they did it, instead producing more output than ever before. There is no reason to think that such adaptations and advances will not continue into the future. Thus, projections of negative impacts to Washington s agriculture that may result from climate change are unfounded. The opposite is more likely. To assume that future climate change in Washington will greatly harm Washington s agricultural crops is to assume the dumb farmer scenario that is, farmers will doggedly persist in planting the same crop varieties, employing the same farming methods, not adjusting planting and harvesting times, etc. in the face of changing climate and variable yields. Such a scenario has never been true. Again, as Washington s ever-increasing crop yields attest, just the opposite occurs farmers constantly change their methods to produce better yields from their fields and efforts. Projections of negative impacts to Washington s agriculture that may result from climate change are unfounded. There is every reason to believe that this pattern will continue into the future. Crop science is a major subject of study at many universities and laboratories across the country. Technological improvements and plant genetic breakthroughs should continue enhancing yields and insure that crop varieties are available that take the best advantage 1 See: 11

12 of the variable climate. Indeed, if current climate trends continue, tomorrow s climate will produce better, higher-yielding crops than present. Figure 7. History of crop yields ( ) of three economically significant crops in Washington, wheat (top), potatoes (middle), corn (bottom). There is no indication that long-term climate changes are negatively impacting crop yields just the opposite (source: U.S. Department of Agriculture). Sea Level Rise: Despite predictions of rising sea level from global warming, in Washington, like the entire Pacific Coast, other processes dominate the level of the shoreline. The most important of these is plate tectonics. The active geology that gives rise to frequent earthquakes in Washington also influences the relative level of the shoreline. The complex system of faults and fractures along the Pacific coast gives rise to 12

13 large-scale land movements that have led to some areas experiencing a relative sea-level rise, while neighboring locations have experienced a relative sea-level drop. For instance, the sea level along much of the Washington coast is influenced by the land movements associated with the Juan de Fuca plate the same movements that are responsible for the state s many earthquakes and volcanic activity in the Cascades. The ocean floor is slipping under the continental landmass and slightly raising it. The complex system of faults and fractures along the Pacific coast gives rise to large-scale land movements that have led to some areas experiencing a relative sea-level rise, while neighboring locations have experienced a relative sea-level drop. This uplift results in a relative sea-level drop along many portions of Washington s coast. However, in some locations where the Juan de Fuca plate interacts with other tectonic features, the land levels are actually falling, resulting in a relative rise in sea level. Figure 8. Two independent determinations of the vertical rate of land motions along the Washington coastlines (expressed as mm/yr). Both solutions show that in general, the land level is rising, which acts to offset global sea level rise from the rising global average temperature (Mote et al., 2008b). This complicated association of rising and falling sea levels is a strong sign that geologic forces dominate over climatic forces in determining the level of the seas along the Pacific Coast of the United States (Aubrey and Emery, 1991; Mote et al., 2008b). These natural changes, along with Washington s predominately rocky coastline, make the detection of 13

14 gradual sea-level rise due to the warming of the ocean waters both difficult to detect and greatly reduced in impact. There is no reason to believe that the processes of plate tectonics and continental drift will cease, and therefore the trends in apparent sea-level rise and land subsidence during the past 100 years will likely persist with or without an increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide level. Global warming or not, Washington will have to maintain its ongoing efforts to adapt to these changes. Resources wasted on futile CO2 mitigation plans will render sensible adaptations more expensive and difficult. The latest projections of future sea level rise, as given in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggest a potential sea level rise in the coming century of between 7 and 23 inches, depending of the total amount of warming that occurs. The IPCC links a lower sea level rise with lower future warming. One suggested warming rate of the earth is 0.18ºC per decade, which is near the low end of the IPCC range of projected warming for the 21st century which is from 0.11 to 0.64ºC per decade. Therefore, since we observe that the warming rate is tracking near the low end of the IPCC projections, we should also expect that the rate of sea level rise should track near the low end of the range given by the IPCC in this case, a future rise much closer to 7 inches than to 23 inches. Thus, the reasonably expected rate of global sea level rise in the coming decades is not much different to the rate of sea level rise that Washington coastlines have been experiencing for more than a century and have adapted to. Figure 9. Range of sea level rise projections (and their individual components) for the year 2100 made by the IPCC AR4 for its six primary emissions scenarios. There are a few individuals who argue that sea level rise will accelerate precipitously in the future and raise the level of the ocean to such a degree that it inundates portions of coastal Washington and other low-lying areas around the world and they clamor that the 14

15 IPCC was far too conservative in its projections. However, these rather alarmist views are not based upon the most reliable scientific information, ignoring our best understanding of how a warmer world will impact ice loss/gain on Greenland and Antarctica, and correspondingly influence global sea level. It is a fact, that all of the extant models of the future of Antarctica indicate that a warmer climate leads to more snowfall (the majority of which remains for hundreds to thousands of years due to extreme interior cold) which acts to slow the rate of global sea level rise (because the water remains trapped in ice and snow). New data suggest that the increasing rate of ice loss from Greenland observed over the past few years has started to decline (Howat et al., 2007). Another recent study reported that the Greenland ice sheet mass balance actually grows about 2 inches per year.2 At any rate, the Greenland ice sheet survived each of the previous three interglacial periods, each of which was 5 degrees Celsius warmer than the present. It survived atmospheric CO2 concentrations of up to 1000 ppmv (compared with today s 385 ppmv). It last melted 850,000 years ago, when humankind did not exist and could not have caused the melting. Again, scenarios of disastrous rises in sea level are predicated on Antarctica and Greenland losing massive amounts of snow and ice in a very short period of time an occurrence with zero likelihood. 2 Colors indicate ice-sheet elevation change rate in cm/year from satellite altimeter data, The spatially averaged increase is 5.4 ± 0.2 cm/year. 15

16 In fact, one author of the IPCC AR4 chapter dealing with sea level rise projections, Dr. Richard Alley, recently testified before the House Committee on Science and Technology concerning the state of scientific knowledge of accelerating sea level rise and pressure to exaggerate what is known about it. Dr. Alley told the Committee: This document [the IPCC AR4] works very, very hard to be an assessment of what is known scientifically and what is well-founded in the refereed literature and when we come up to that cliff and look over and say we don t have a foundation right now, we have to tell you that, and on this particular issue, the trend of acceleration of this flow with warming we don t have a good assessed scientific foundation right now. [Emphasis added] Thus, the IPCC projections of future sea level rise, which average only about 15 inches for the next 100 years, stand as the best projections that can be made based upon our current level of scientific understanding. These projections are far less severe that the alarming projections of many feet of sea level rise that have been made by a few individuals whose extremist views lie far outside of the scientific consensus.3 The median scenario for sea level rise projections along the Washington shoreline by the year 2050 only ranges from 0 inches near Puget Sound, to around 5 to 6 inches along the central and southern coasts, and about double that (from 2 to about 13 inches) by the year Combining these future estimates of global sea level rise with the on-going geological processes of tectonic land uplift along most of the Washington coastline, the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group together with the Washington Department of Ecology, have estimated that the median scenario of sea level rise projections along the Washington shoreline by the year 2050 ranges from 0 inches to near the Puget Sound, to around 5 to 6 inches along the central and southern coasts and about double that (from 2 to about 13 inches) by the year 2100 (Mote et al., 2008b). These rates of sea level rise are not dissimilar to the sea level rise that has occurred along the Washington coastal regions during the past 100 years, and to which Washingtonians have successfully adapted, if even noticed. 3 Moerner (2004), who has studied sea level throughout his distinguished, 30-year professional career and is recognized as the world s foremost expert, says there is no basis even for the UN s best estimate of a 0.43 m (17 in) rise in sea level to His own best estimate is that there will be little increase above that which was observed in the 20th century just 8 inches. 16

17 Global sea level measured by surface gauges between 1807 and 2002 (24) and by satellite between 1993 and 2006 (25). Satellite measurements are shown in gray and agree with tide gauge measurements. The over-all trend is an increase of 7 inches per century. Intermediate trends are 9, 0, 12, 0, and 12 inches per century, respectively. This trend lags the temperature increase, so it predates the increase in hydrocarbon use even more than is shown. The long-term trend is unaffected by the very large increase in hydrocarbon use, showing no correlation between the two. Impacts of State climate-mitigation measures G lobally, in 2003, humankind emitted 25,780 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (mmtco2: EIA, 2007a), of which emissions from Washington accounted for 78.7 mmtco2, or only 0.31% (EIA, 2007b). The proportion of manmade CO2 emissions from Washington will decrease over the 21st century as the rapid demand for power in developing countries such as China and India rapidly outpaces the growth of Washington s CO2 emissions (EIA, 2007b). Globally, in 2003, humankind emitted 25,780 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, of which emissions from Washington accounted for only 0.31%. During the past 5 years, global emissions of CO2 from human activity have increased at an average rate of 3.5%/yr (EIA, 2007a), meaning that the annual increase of anthropogenic global CO2 emissions is more than 10 times greater than Washington s 17

18 total emissions. This means that even a complete cessation of all CO2 emissions in Washington will be completely subsumed by global emissions growth in just a single month s time! In fact, China alone adds more than six Washington s-worth of new emissions to its total emissions each and every year. Clearly, given the magnitude of the global emissions and global emission growth, regulations prescribing a complete cessation let along a small reduction of Washington s CO2 emissions will have absolutely no effect on global climate, temperature or sea level. Wigley (1998) examined the climate impact of adherence to the emissions controls agreed under the Kyoto Protocol by participating nations, and found that, if all developed countries meet their commitments in 2010 and maintain them through 2100, with a midrange sensitivity of surface temperature to changes in CO2, the amount of warming saved by the Kyoto Protocol would be 0.07 C by 2050 and 0.15 C by The global sea level rise saved would be 2.6 cm, or one inch. Even a complete cessation of CO2 emissions in Washington is only a tiny fraction of the worldwide reductions assumed in Dr. Wigley s global analysis, so its impact on future trends in global temperature and sea level will be only a minuscule fraction of the negligible effects calculated by Dr. Wigley. To demonstrate the futility of emissions regulations in Washington, we apply Dr. Wigley s results to the state, assuming that the ratio of U.S. CO2 emissions to those of the developed countries which have agreed to limits under the Kyoto Protocol remains constant at 39% (25% of global emissions) throughout the 21st century. We also assume that developing countries such as China and India continue to emit at an increasing rate. Consequently, the annual proportion of global CO2 emissions from human activity that is contributed by human activity in the United States will decline. Finally, we assume that the proportion of total U.S. CO2 emissions in Washington now 1.4% remains constant throughout the 21st century. With these assumptions, we generate the following table derived from Wigley s (1998) mid-range emissions scenario (which itself is based upon the IPCC s scenario IS92a ): Table 1 Projected annual CO2 emissions (mmtco2) Year Global emissions: Wigley, ,609 41,276 50,809 75,376 Developed countries: Wigley, ,934 18,308 18,308 21,534 U.S. (39% of developed countries) 5,795 7,103 7,103 8,355 Washington (1.4% of U.S.) Note: Developed countries emissions, according to Wigley s assumptions, do not change between 2025 and 2050: neither does total U.S or Washington emissions. 18

19 In Table 2, we compare the total CO2 emissions saving that would result if Washington s CO2 emissions were completely halted by 2025 with the emissions savings assumed by Wigley (1998) if all nations met their Kyoto commitments by 2010, and then held their emissions constant throughout the rest of the century. This scenario is Kyoto Const. Table 2 Projected annual CO2 emissions savings (mmtco2) Year Washington Kyoto Const. 0 4,697 4,697 7,924 Table 3 shows the proportion of the total emissions reductions in Wigley s (1998) case that would be contributed by a complete halt of all Washington s CO2 emissions (calculated as column 2 in Table 2 divided by column 3 in Table 2). Table 3 Washington percentage of emissions savings Year Washington 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 1.5% Using the percentages in Table 3, and assuming that temperature change scales in proportion to CO2 emissions, we calculate the global temperature savings that will result from the complete cessation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in Washington: Table 4 Projected global temperature savings (ºC) Year Kyoto Const Washington Accordingly, a cessation of all of Washington s CO2 emissions would result in a climatically-irrelevant and undetectable global temperature reduction by the year 2100 of about two thousandths of a degree Celsius. This number is so low that it is equivalent to zero. Results for sea-level rise are also negligible: 19

20 Table 5 Projected global sea-level rise savings (cm) Year Kyoto Const Washington A complete cessation of all anthropogenic emissions from Washington will result in a global sea-level rise savings by the year 2100 of an estimated 0.04 cm, or less than two hundredths of an inch. Again, this value is climatically irrelevant and virtually zero. A cessation of all of Washington s CO2 emissions would result in a climatically-irrelevant and undetectable global temperature reduction by the year 2100 of about two thousandths of a degree Celsius. This number is so low that it is equivalent to zero. Even more telling, if the entire Western world were to close down its economies completely and revert to the Stone Age, without even the ability to light fires, the growth in emissions from China and India would replace our entire emissions in little more than a decade. In this context, any cuts in emissions from Washington would be extravagantly pointless. Washington s carbon dioxide emissions, it their sum total, effectively do not impact world climate in any way whatsoever. Costs of Federal Legislation And what would be the potential costs to Washington of legislative actions designed to cap greenhouse gas emissions? An analysis was recently completed by the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), under contract from the American Council for Capital Formation and the National Association of Manufacturers (ACCF and NAM), using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS); the same model employed by the US Energy Information Agency to examine the economic impacts. For a complete description of their findings please visit: 20

21 Figure 10. The economic impacts in Washington of federal legislation to limit greenhouse gas emissions green. (Source: Science Applications International Corporation, 2008, To summarize, SAIC found that by the year 2020, average annual household income in Washington would decline by $1,083 to $3,512 and by the year 2030 the decline would increase to between $4,497 and $8,200. The state would stand to lose between 24,000 and 36,000 jobs by 2020 and between 62,000 and 82,000 jobs by At the same time gas prices could increase by more than $5 a gallon by the year 2030 and the states Gross Domestic Product could decline by then by as much as $14.7 billion/yr. And all this economic hardship would come with absolutely no detectable impact on the course of future climate. This is the epitome of a scenario of all pain and no gain. Washington Scientists Reject UN s Global Warming Claims4 At least 603 Washington scientists have petitioned the US government that the UN s human-caused global warming hypothesis is without scientific validity and that government action on the basis of this hypothesis would unnecessarily and counterproductively damage both human prosperity and the natural environment of the Earth. 4 Questions about this survey should be addressed to the petition organizers. 21

22 They are joined by over 31,072 Americans with university degrees in science including 9,021 PhDs. The petition and entire list of US signers can be found here: Names of the Washington scientists who signed the petition can be viewed here: References Energy Information Administration, 2007a. International Energy Annual, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., Energy Information Administration, 2007b. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers, ( Mote, P., et al., 2008a. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades? Hydrology and Earth Science Systems, 12, Mote, P., et al., 2008b. Sea level rise in the coastal waters of Washington State. A report by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group and the Washington Department of Ecology ( National Climatic Data Center, U.S. National/State/Divisional Data, ( Stoelinga, M., et al., A look at the past 75 years of snowpack in the Cascades using a streamflow-based proxy for snowpack. Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop, February 29 March 1, 2008, Seattle, WA. Wigley, T.M.L., The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4 and climate implications. Geophysical Research Letters, 25,