Assessing the Risk of 100-year Freshwater Floods in the Lamprey River Watershed of New Hampshire Resulting from Changes in Climate and Land Use

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1 Assessing the Risk of 100-year Freshwater Floods in the Lamprey River Watershed of New Hampshire Resulting from Changes in Climate and Land Use Cameron Wake, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, UNH Steve Miller, Great Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve Robert Roseen & Ann Scholz, UNH Stormwater Center Fay Rubin, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, UNH Michael Simpson, Antioch University New England Lisa Townson & Julia Peterson, UNH Cooperative Extension Project funded by NOAA - Cooperative Institute for Coastal and Estuarine Environmental Technology (CICEET)

2 Assessing Flood Risk in the Lamprey River Watershed 100,000 16,000 Population 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Population (all towns with at least a portion of their area in the watershed) Urban & Developed Land (Lamprey River Watershed) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Acres of Urban & Developed Land 20,000 2,

3 4 Inch Precipitation Events by Decade Durham, NH 8 7 Lawrence, MA Number of Events per Decade Decadal Periods from 1948 to Decadal Periods from 1948 to 2007

4 Assessing Flood Risk in the Lamprey River Watershed Daily Discharge for Lamprey River near Newmarket, NH July July / ,000 FIS 100 year flood (7300 cfs) 4/ / discharge (cubic feet per second) 6,000 4,000 2,000 3/ Year

5 Costs from Presidentially Declared Disasters in NH $ millions

6 Assessing Flood Risk - Lamprey River Watershed Project Objectives: Assess flood risk associated with combined land use and climate change scenarios out to 2100 Produce maps of the 100-year flood risk boundaries and river discharge at specific locations Demonstrate the use of our products to support land use decision-making in coastal communities Serve as a model for other New England watersheds

7 Assessing Flood Risk in the Lamprey River Watershed 40,000 30,000 acres 20,000 Residential Development (239 acres per year) 10,000 Commercial and Industrial Development (35 acres per year)

8 Assessing Flood Risk - Lamprey River Watershed Land Use & Climate Scenarios to be Evaluated (6 total)

9 Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

10 Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Downscale Global Projections to Regional Level

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12 Engaged Scholarship at UNH At UNH, engaged scholarship is defined as: a mutually beneficial collaboration between the University of New Hampshire and community partners for the purpose of generating and applying relevant knowledge to directly benefit the public Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching officially recognized the University of New Hampshire as a community engaged university in 2008

13 Assessing Flood Risk in the Lamprey River Watershed Advisory Committee Cliff Sinnott Rockingham Planning Commission Cynthia Copeland Strafford Regional Planning Commission Jack Munn Southern New Hampshire Planning Commission David Cedarholm Durham Public Works Jennifer Perry Exeter Public Works Diane Hardy Newmarket Town Planner Carl Spang Lamprey River Watershed Association Eric Williams NH DES -Watersheds Division Joanne Cassulo New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning Mike Goetz Federal Emergency Management Agency Ron Poltak New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Agency Becky Weidman New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Agency Sharon Meeker Lamprey River Advisory Committee Keith Robinson United States Geological Survey

14 Assessing Flood Risk in the Lamprey River Watershed Legal Research & Analysis Collaboration with John Echeverri & others, Vermont Law School Funded by National Sea Grant Law Center What if communities fail to act in response to new floodplain data? What policy options exist for communities accounting for larger floodplains? Do communities have legal authority to adopt regulatory changes based on projected climate change? How could an ordinance which incorporates the new maps be challenged? Are communities exposed to takings liability in their responses?