The role of climate and ocean drivers on fish productivity

Transcription

1 The role of climate and ocean drivers on fish productivity Jennifer Boldt, Ian Perry, Jaclyn Cleary, Matt Thompson, Nathan Taylor, and many others Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Biological Station 3190 Hammond Bay Road, Nanaimo, B.C., V9T 6N7, Canada.

2 Long-term Variability in Fish Populations (Baumgartner et al. 1992) 1,700 years of Sardine and Anchovy Population Trends

3 Common Patterns in Fish Recruitment & Survival Salmon and herring in the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska Mueter, F.J., J.L. Boldt, B.A. Megrey, and R.M. Peterman Recruitment and survival of Northeast Pacific Ocean fish stocks: temporal trends, covariation, and regime shifts. CJFAS 64:

4 Fish Recruitment and Survival (Cury) Hjort critical period (1913): oceanographic environment affects larvae survival and affects recruitment success. Cushing match-mismatch hypothesis (1969): production of fish larvae matches or mismatches production of their food. Lasker stability hypothesis (1975, 1978): stable environment is needed to allow successful feeding for larvae. Parrish et al. transport hypothesis (1981) : Larvae transported by currents offshore are lost for recruitment. Rothschild and Osborn/MacKensie turbulence hypothesis (1988): micro turbulences increase the encounter rates between larvae and their food. Sinclair member/vagrant hypothesis (1988): constraints imposed by mesoscale oceanographic events on the life cycle. Bakun triad hypothesis (1993): enrichment, retention, concentration

5 Pacific Currents

6 Atmospheric Forcing and Ocean Responses (Di Lorenzo et al. 2013) Temperature Salinity Water column structure Currents/transport Freshwater input Upwelling Oxygen Nutrients

7 Pacific Ocean Indices (Crawford 2014) Crawford Global temperature in 2013, and anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska. In Perry, R.I. (Ed). State of the physical, biological and selected fishery resources of Pacific Canadian marine ecosystems in Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3102: vi p.

8 Sea Surface Temperature Crawford, 2014

9 The Warm Blob Courtesy of Ian Perry January 2014 Difference from normal temperatures January 2015 Difference from normal temperatures Very intense warm water (3 C above normal) in NE Pacific, but cool along BC coast NE Pacific has cooled, but warm water now along BC coast 2015 U.S. Canada collaborative project: Evaluate hypotheses regarding the expected response of fish to anomalous ocean conditions in the GOA, BC, PNW.

10 Primary Productivity and Temperature Mueter, F.J., et al Ecosystem responses to recent oceanographic variability in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ecosystems. Progress in Oceanography 81:

11 Primary & Zooplankton Productivity Hecate St., QCI Ware, D., and McQueen, D Retrospective estimates of interannual and decadal variability in lower trophic level production in the Hecate Strait-Queen Charlotte Sound region from 1958 to Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2656: vii + 31 p.

12 Primary & Zooplankton Productivity Hecate St., QCI Ware, D., and McQueen, D Retrospective estimates of interannual and decadal variability in lower trophic level production in the Hecate Strait-Queen Charlotte Sound region from 1958 to Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2656: vii + 31 p.

13 Carrying Capacity and Bottom-Up Forcing Ware and Thomson (2005) Positive correlation between: chl-a and fish yield for NPac fish, BC groundfish & herring

14 Carrying Capacity and Bottom-Up Forcing Perry and Schweigert (2008) Correlation between primary & herring productivity

15 Drivers of change acting on the Strait of Georgia 15 natural and human Driver & Pressure (explanatory) variables examined for statistical relationships with 22 State & Impact (response) variables for the Strait of Georgia, Explanatory variables identified to be statistically significant (using redundancy analysis) were: sea surface temperature, wind speed, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation; human population, recreational fishing effort, number of Chinook salmon released from hatcheries Perry and Masson, Progr in Oceanogr.

16 These six variables describe regime-like behaviour of the SOG since 'Parsimonious' RDA Perry (Scaling=0) and Masson, Progr in Oceanogr. RDA Axis 2, 6% of total variance , , RDA Axis 1, 66% of total variance

17 Courtesy of Di Lorenzo, 2014

18 Zooplankton Vancouver Island Galbraith et al State of the Ocean Report Southern Vancouver Island Boreal Shelf Copepods Northern Vancouver Island Boreal Shelf Copepods Biomass anomaly Subarctic Copepods Southern Copepods Subarctic Copepods Southern Copepods

19 Environmental Effects on Biology Light - amount and timing of primary production Temperature distribution, primary production timing, spawn timing and amount, fecundity, egg size, egg development, hatching rates, metabolism, growth rates, swim speeds, disease, increased predation, presence of new predators or competitors... Salinity water column structure and production, hatch time, growth Water column structure amount and timing of primary production Currents/transport respiration for eggs, transport and distribution of animals, retention or loss of larvae, concentration of animals/prey, prey species composition Freshwater input - amount and timing of primary production, retention of larvae Sea level - retention Upwelling nutrients, oxygen, temperature Oxygen life or death, distribution Nutrients amount of primary production Acidification amount of shell-forming prey

20 Environmental Effects on Biology effects: lethal, controlling, directive, limiting, and masking levels: organ, organism, population, or ecosystem dependent on previous history, exposure, sensitivity, rate of change, and presence of other synergistic or antagonistic factors

21 Primary production amount (12) Temperature (10, 13) Temperature (10) Water movement (9) Salinity (9) Temperature (11) Temperature (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) River discharge (3, 4, 5) Salinity (1, 4, 5) Sea level (4, 5) Ekman transport (2, 4, 5) Upwelling (6) May-Jun Primary production timing (7) Publication 1 Dreyfus-Leon and Schweigert Zebdi and Collie Stocker et al Stocker and Noakes Schweigert and Noakes Williams and Quinn Schweigert et al Ramey and Wickett Alderdice and Hourston Tanasichuk and Ware Tanasichuk Perry and Schweigert Hay and Kronlund Ware and Thomas 2005

22 Pacific Herring Recruits, (DFO)

23 Juvenile Herring and Nearshore SOG Pelagic Survey (Thompson et al., 2014) Annual, (except 1995) September-October Night-time sampling Fish species composition, relative abundance, morphometrics 8 9 Zooplankton CTD 10 Core Transects (1 st stage sampling units) 5 stations (2 nd stage sampling units) per transect Open water and channel type habitats (strata) Strait of Georgia 6

24 SOG Age-0 Herring Catches (Boldt et al. in progress; DRAFT!)

25 SOG Age-0 Herring and Spring Bloom Timing (Schweigert et al. 2013) The largest herring year-classes occurred when the spring bloom began between DOY 60 and 80. Stronger year-classes most frequent when spawning extends to ~DOY 90. Support for Match-Mismatch hypothesis

26 Herring and Sardine Distribution WCVI Nighttime trawl survey Sardine (Boldt et al. 2012) Herring

27 Herring and Sardine Diets 2012 (Boldt et al. 2012) Species overlap= Species= Species Co-occurrence ANOSIM Global R (p-value) (0.001) (0.001) ANOSIM on Bray-Curtis similarity matrix based on 4 th -root transformed data

28 La Perouse Survey, 2014 Herring Mix

29 Herring Sardine Zooplankton Location SST etc.. Generalized Additive Model Sardine & herring distribution ~ biological & environmental variables

30 Pacific Herring Weight-at-Age, (J. Cleary, DFO, pers. comm.)

31 Otolith Growth Chronology (Black et al. 2013) Growth chronologies used to: Improve accuracy of ages used in stock assessments Assess declines in size-at-age of species that may be related to declines in growth rate and productivity.

32 Growth Chronology Current DFO SPERA Project: Develop multidecadal growth chronology for Pacific Herring (& hake, sablefish) using historically-collected scales Evaluate hypotheses regarding declines in size-at-age Identify coast-wide climate-growth relationships Develop coast-wide proxies of past environmental variability Examine patterns across species, latitudinal, or topographic gradients related to the impact of oceanographic drivers on ecosystem productivity. Project Lead: John Holmes Collaborators: Shayne MacLellan, Stephen Wischniowski, Darlene Gillespie, Bryan Black, Jennifer Boldt

33 ? Courtesy of Matt Thompson, DFO, 2015

34 Summary Environmental variables affect fish productivity through enrichment, concentration, retention Effects at organism to ecosystem-level and can depend on previous history Temperature appears to be important at all life stages and processes Research projects are underway Current factors that may be important: warm blob, and?

35 Contributors & Acknowledgements Kristen Daniel Linnea Flostrand Charles Fort Moira Galbraith Stéphane Gauthier Doug Hay Vanessa Hodes Terry Quinn Chris Rooper Jake Schweigert Tom Therriault Pacific Salmon Foundation Herring Conservation Research Society W.E. Ricker captain, crew, participants SOG juvenile herring survey participants Zotec Services Emanuele Di Lorenzo Doug Henderson Sandy McFarlane Chris O Grady