HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT PHASE III REPORT ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES SAMPSON RESEARCH. Consulting Project.

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1 Consulting Project HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT PHASE III REPORT ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES Prepared for: Power Smart Quality and Assurance BC Hydro Burnaby, British Columbia By: Sampson Research August 15, 2003 Suite 306, 1465 Comox Street Vancouver, BC V6G 1N9 Phone:

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary This work updates the baseline electrical demand and consumption estimates for holiday lighting with information on household non-utilization and substitution behaviours - two key sources of variance identified in the Holiday Lighting Market Assessment - Phase II Baseline Estimates report released in March Non-utilization refers to holiday lights that are not used (i.e., remain in storage or are defective). The substitution effect refers to the removal or disconnection of outdoor lights while outdoor holiday light displays are in place. Information on these two behaviours was obtained from the Residential End-Use Survey conducted by BC Hydro Power Smart in April Summary Results Major observations from this research include: Peak demand is now estimated at 445 MW, a 43% reduction from the previous estimate. Total seasonal electrical consumption is estimated at 73.1 GWh. Of the two effects, the non-utilization of holiday light strings accounts for the vast majority (89%) of the reduction in peak demand from Phase II estimates. The weighted average percentage of holiday lights in use is 61%. This suggests that for every 10 strings in use of the C9, C7, or mini light style, another 6.5 remain in storage. Factors found to influence non-utilization are similar to those that influence overall holiday lighting use, including age of respondent, the presence of children in the household, and household income. Almost one-quarter (24%) of households displaying outdoor holiday lights disconnect or remove one or more outdoor lights while their displays are in use. These households disconnected an average of 2.3 outdoor lights each. Factors that influence the substitution effect are primarily the dwelling type and size. Strategic Issues Strategic issues arising from this research include: Impact on electrical Load The significant number of holiday light strings in storage, if brought into use, could significantly increase BC Hydro s seasonal peak demand. Impact on Program Planning - The large stock of unused holiday lights could dramatically limit the success of any trade-in style demand-side management (DSM) program. There is also the possibility that a trade-in or exchange style program could increase system load if households traded unused strings for energy efficient varieties and chose to augment their existing displays with these new strings rather than displace strings in use. * * * * * * * HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT I

3 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURES Page Figure 3.0 Seasonal Peak Demand Profile by Region 13 Figure 3.1 Hourly Demand Profile Indoor versus Outdoor Applications 14 Figure 3.2 Hourly Demand Profile by Type, Indoor Applications 15 Figure 3.3 Hourly Demand Profile by Type, Outdoor Applications 15 Figure 3.4 Hourly Demand Profile by Type, All Applications 16 HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT

4 LIST OF TABLES TABLES Page Table 2.0 Phase II Report Variable Matrix 2 Table 2.1 Utilization Category Transformations Question 37a 4 Table 3.0 Percentage of Indoor Holiday Lights Installed 7 Table 3.1 Percentage of Outdoor Holiday Lights Installed 8 Table 3.2 Outdoor Lights Disconnected / Removed 9 Table 3.3 Substitution Effect by Size of Dwelling 9 Table 3.4 Adjusted Peak Demand (MW) Indoor Applications 10 Table 3.5 Adjusted Demand (MW) Outdoor Applications 10 Table 3.6 Adjusted Peak Demand (MW) All Applications 11 Table 3.7 Adjusted Peak Demand (MW) by Lighting Style Indoor Applications 11 Table 3.8 Adjusted Peak Demand (MW) by Lighting Style Outdoor Applications 12 Table 3.9 Adjusted Peak Demand (MW) by Lighting Style All Applications 12 Table 3.10 Peak Demand (MW) by Hour and Region December 25, Table 3.11 Adjusted Annual Electrical Consumption (GWh) Indoor Applications 18 Table 3.12 Adjusted Annual Electrical Consumption (GWh) Outdoor Applications 18 Table 3.13 Adjusted Annual Electrical Consumption (GWh) All Applications 18 HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTENTS Executive Summary... i 1 Introduction Methodology and Assumptions Phase II Information on Residential Holiday Lighting Calculating Net Demand Non-Utilization Effect Substitution Effect Net Electrical Demand Calculating Net Electrical Consumption 5 3 Adjusted Baseline Estimates End Use Survey Results Non-Utilization Behavior Substitution Behavior Adjusted Electrical Demand Estimates Summary of Net Effects Lighting Style Seasonal Load Profile Hourly Load Profile Adjusted Electrical Consumption Estimates 17 4 Sources of Variance Household Behaviours Coincidence with BC Hydro s System Peak Demand 19 5 Summary & Conclusions Strategic Issues Strings Remaining in Storage Latent Potential to Boost Demand? Strings Remaining in Storage Implications for Demand Side Management Program Design 21 Page Frequency Distributions - Non-Utilization and Substitution Behaviours Appendix A HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT

6 1 INTRODUCTION 1 Introduction This report updates BC Hydro s estimates of baseline electrical demand and consumption attributable to residential holiday lighting as first presented in Holiday Lighting Market Assessment Phase II Baseline Estimates, March 3, Specifically, this report incorporates new information on household holiday lighting utilization and substitution behaviours obtained from BC Hydro Power Smart s April 2003 Residential End-Use Survey. This new information has a significant impact on the baseline estimates and significantly increases BC Hydro s understanding of the dynamics of residential holiday lighting use. This report has six sections. The methodology and assumptions are presented immediately following this introduction. Section 3 presents the results of the analysis of electrical demand, consumption and system peak. Section 4 discusses remaining sources of potential variance. Section 5 summarizes the report s major findings and conclusions. Strategic implications for BC Hydro load forecasting and demand-side management program design are presented in Section 6. Appendix A provides the frequency distributions and cross tabulations from the 2003 Residential End-Use Survey. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 1

7 2 METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS 2 Methodology and Assumptions 2.1 Phase II Information on Residential Holiday Lighting Estimates of the technical potential (gross) electrical demand and consumption for residential holiday lighting, as presented in the Phase II report, represented the maximum possible impact of residential holiday lights on BC Hydro s overall electrical system. A summary of the electrical demand and consumption detail provided in the Phase II report is shown in Table 2.0. Table 2.0 Variable Matrix Holiday Lighting Market Assessment Phase II Baseline Estimates Peak Demand Consumption Lighting Application Indoor Outdoor Indoor Outdoor Lighting Style C9 Strings C7-7 Watt Strings C7-5 Watt Strings Mini Light Strings Mini Light Variations Rope Lights. n/a n/a BC Hydro region: Lower Mainland / Coast / Fraser Valley; Vancouver Island / Gulf Islands; Thompson / Okanagan / Kootenay (South Interior) Northern BC (North). Hour of the Day n/a n/a Day of the Holiday Season n/a n/a n/a = not applicable Because of the gross nature of the estimates in the Phase II, the net contribution of holiday lighting to BC Hydro s system peak demand needed to consider the following factors: household s decision to not install / operate some light strings (i.e., non-utilization effect); the temporary disconnection / removal of traditional outdoor lighting for outdoor holiday light displays (i.e., substitution effect). deviations from reported operating schedules (i.e., diversity); the presence of non-operating or missing bulbs; non-coincidence in system and holiday lighting hourly peak demands; non-coincidence in system and holiday lighting seasonal peak demands; HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 2

8 METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS 2.2 Calculating Net Electrical Demand BC Hydro s Residential End-Use Survey administered to households in April 2003 provided an opportunity to gain information on two of the most important factors influencing holiday lighting demand and consumption the non-utilization and substitution effects Non-Utilization Effect Households were asked to indicate the total number of holiday lights they put up in the 2002 holiday season. Predefined response categories included: All of them (100%) Most (75% - 99%) A fair amount (51% - 74%) Some (25% - 50%) Few (Less than 25%) None (0%) Households were asked to answer this question for their indoor lights and their outdoor lights separately. If they did not have any holiday lights, they were asked to skip the questions. To convert the six response categories into a weighted average utilization estimate for each region, the following formula was used: UWr = (Wj * Ujr ) Where: r = region (Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, South Interior, North) UW = weighted average utilization rate j = response category (all, most, fair amount, some, few) W = category value (see Table 2.1) U = % of households responding by response category (weight) Four of the six response categories for this question represented a range of possible values. To calculate a weighted average utilization rate, a mid-point estimate for each of these ranges was assumed (Table 2.1). HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 3

9 METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS Table 2.1 Utilization Category Transformations Question 37a Original Value / Mid-Point Value 100% % to 99% % to 74% % to 50% < 25% % Substitution Effect The April 2003 end-use survey also asked users of outdoor holiday lights whether they temporarily disconnected or removed any of their regular outdoor lights during the 2002 holiday season. This question specifically sought to substantiate anecdotal evidence that some households disconnect or remove a portion of their regular outdoor lights while their holiday light displays are in place. While not queried specifically, reasons for disconnecting / removing regular lights likely include: gaining access to an electrical connection (e.g., an adapter plug is screwed into the receptacle of an existing outdoor light); and/or, to reduce the light interference with holiday light displays (i.e., to improve the aesthetic appeal of the outdoor holiday light display). If households answered yes to the first question, they were then asked to indicate how many outdoor lights they disconnected or removed. Households were not asked whether they temporarily disconnected or removed any indoor lights. The substitution effect was calculated by taking this information and applying the following formula: Total KWs r = ((Ws * Ns r ) / 1000) * HH r Where: r KWs Ws Ns HH = region (Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, South Interior, North) = kilowatt demand substitution effect = wattage per displaced bulb (60 watts assumed) = average number of bulbs removed or replaced = number of households disconnecting lights It was assumed that the substitution effect lasted as long as the outdoor holiday lights were in use. Once the holiday lights were taken down for the season it was assumed that the disconnected or removed outdoor lights would be reactivated. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 4

10 METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS Net Electrical Demand The technical potential electrical demand by region from the Phase II study was adjusted by the regionalspecific weighted average utilization rate using the following formulae: Indoor Holiday Lights KWn r = KWt r * UW r Where: r KWn KWt UW = region (Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, South Interior, North) = kilowatt demand net of the non-utilization effect = technical kilowatt demand (from Phase II study) = weighted average utilization rate Information on bulb wattages, regional weights, hours and days of use were taken from the Phase II study. The electrical demand estimates by indoor lighting style (C9, C7, mini, variations, rope) were adjusted by the regional-specific utilization rates in a similar manner. Outdoor Holiday Lights Total KWns r = (KWt r * UW r ) - KWs r Where: r = region (Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, South Interior, North) KWns = kilowatt demand net of non-utilization and substitution effects KWt = technical kilowatt demand (from Phase II study) UW = weighted average utilization rate KWs = kilowatt demand substitution effect Information on bulb wattages, regional weights, hours and days of use are unchanged from the Phase II study. 2.3 Calculating Net Electrical Consumption System electrical consumption estimates for holiday lighting were adjusted for the utilization and substitution effects using the following formulae: HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 5

11 METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS Indoor Holiday Lights Net KWh r = (KWn r * Hi r * Di r ) Where: r Net KWh KWn r Hi Di = region (Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, South Interior, North) = consumption (kwh) adjusted for non-utilization effect = kilowatt demand adjusted for non-utilization effect = hours of use per day for indoor lights (Phase II estimate) = number of days in use per season for indoor lights (Phase II estimate) Outdoor Holiday Lights Net KWh r = (KWn r * Ho r * Do r ) - (KWs r * Ho r * Do r ) Where: r Net KWh KWn KWs Ho Do = region (Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, South Interior, North) = consumption (kwh) adjusted for non-utilization and substitution effects = kilowatt demand adjusted for non-utilization effect = kilowatt demand substitution effect = hours of use per day for outdoor lights (Phase II estimate) = number of days in use per season for outdoor lights (Phase II estimate) The revised estimates of system wide consumption were then used to adjust the detailed findings by lighting application and style. The relative contributions of the various holiday lighting styles to system peak demand and system consumption were assumed unchanged from Phase II study. Each lighting style was assumed to be reduced by the non-utilization and substitution effect in the same proportion as their contribution to overall system demand as determined in the Phase II report. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 6

12 3 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES 3 Adjusted Baseline Estimates 3.1 End Use Survey Results Non-Utilization Behaviour Tables 3.0 and 3.1 present the weighted survey results for the non-utilization questions from the April 2003 Residential End-Use Survey, differentiated by indoor versus outdoor applications. The bottom row of each table presents the weighted average result based on the formulae and assumptions presented in Section 2. Table 3.0 Percentage of Indoor Holiday Lights Installed in the 2002 Holiday Season By Response Category and Region Unweighted and Weighted Average Results April 2003 Residential End-Use Survey Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North Total Unweighted 100% 32% 29% 32% 31% 31% 75% to 99% 14% 18% 16% 16% 15% 51% to 74% 13% 12% 13% 15% 13% 25% to 50% 13% 14% 14% 15% 14% < 25% 15% 17% 16% 14% 16% 0% 12% 11% 10% 9% 11% Weighted average percentage of lights installed 59% 60% 61% 62% 60% Of note, 60% of all indoor holiday lights were installed / activated during the 2002 holiday season. For outdoor holiday displays, 61% were activated during the 2002 season. Combining indoor and outdoor styles and expressing them in terms of the most common lengths of C9, C7, or mini light strings reveals that for every 10 strings lit during the 2002 season, another 6.5 remained in storage (i.e., unlit). 1 Appendix A includes the residential end-use survey results for utilization cross-tabulated against dwelling characteristics (i.e., type, size, number of floors, ownership status), respondent age, gender, number of people in the household, education and income. The utilization rate for indoor holiday lights is influenced by age, the number of people in the household, and household income. Seniors, those living alone, and households with less than $40,000 annual income are significantly more likely to leave all their indoor holiday lights in storage or put up less than 1 These estimates were derived by taking the number of C9, C7 and mini light bulbs, as reported in the Phase I Holiday Lighting Market Assessment Report, and expressing them in terms of the most common lengths by string type. C9 and C7 strings were assumed to have 25 bulbs each. Mini light strings were assumed to have 100 bulbs each. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 7

13 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES 25% of their stock. Conversely, families, younger respondents (i.e., between 18 and 34 years of age), and those with the highest household incomes were more likely to install all or most of their indoor lights. These results are consistent with findings from Phase I of the holiday lighting market assessment. The use of outdoor holiday lights is influenced by dwelling type, age, and household income. Apartment dwellers, respondents aged between 18 and 34, and those with less than $40,000 annual household income were significantly more likely to leave all their outdoor holiday lights in storage. Table 3.1 Percentage of Outdoor Holiday Lights Installed in the 2002 Holiday Season By Response Category and Region Unweighted and Weighted Average Results April 2003 Residential End-Use Survey Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North Total Unweighted 100% 35% 34% 36% 35% 35% 75% to 99% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16% 51% to 74% 10% 12% 14% 14% 11% 25% to 50% 12% 11% 10% 13% 11% < 25% 9% 10% 11% 10% 10% 0% 17% 16% 13% 12% 15% Weighted average percentage of lights installed 62% 61% 64% 64% 61% No significant variations in indoor or outdoor holiday light utilization are apparent between the four BC Hydro regions Substitution Behavior Table 3.2 presents the percent of respondents with holiday lights that disconnected or removed outdoor lights and the average (mean) number of lights (bulbs) disconnected. It was assumed that all traditional outdoor bulbs removed or disconnect were 60 watts each. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 8

14 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES Table 3.2 Percent of Respondents Disconnecting / Removing Regular Outdoor Lights & Mean Number of Bulbs Disconnected / Removed Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North Total Percentage of respondents who disconnect outdoor lights Mean number of lights disconnected 25% 23% 23% 21% 24% System wide, 24% of all respondents that used holiday lights in 2002 disconnected or removed outdoor lights. On average, 2.3 lights were disconnected per each of these households. Appendix A includes the survey results for the substitution questions cross-tabulated against dwelling characteristics (e.g., type, size, number of floors, ownership status), respondent age, gender, number of people in the household, education and income. The number of lights disconnected / removed is correlated with the size of the dwelling (Table 3.3). Those with homes exceeding 3000 square feet tended to disconnect / remove nearly twice the number of outdoor lights as those with 1000 square feet or less. Table 3.3 Substitution Effect by Size of Dwelling June 2003 Residential End-Use Survey Home Size (Square Feet) Number of Lights Disconnected / Removed 1000 or less to to The propensity to temporarily disconnect or remove outdoor lights is also correlated with dwelling type. Apartment and condominiums, where outdoor light displays are smaller, disconnect significantly fewer lights than those with single-detached properties. This likely explains why respondents in the Lower Mainland disconnected fewer outdoor lights, on average, than respondents in the other BC Hydro regions. Beyond dwelling type and size, no other significant correlations were found between substitution behavior and participant characteristics. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 9

15 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES 3.2 Adjusted Electrical Demand Estimates Summary of Net Effects Table 3.4 displays the results from calculating the non-utilization effect and removing it from the technical potential estimates for indoor lighting. The new peak demand estimate for indoor holiday lighting is 97 Megawatts (MW), 60% of the original technical (gross) estimate. For outdoor lights (Table 3.5), the compound effect of non-utilization and substitution behaviors is to reduce peak demand to 348 MW or 56% of the technical potential estimate. The non-utilization effect accounts for the vast majority of the reduction in peak demand. Table 3.4 Residential Holiday Lighting Peak Demand (MW) Analysis of Non-Utilization Effect * Indoor Applications Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North BC Hydro System Technical Potential Less: Non-Utilization Effect Net Demand Percent of Technical Potential Non-Utilization Effect 41% 40% 39% 38% 40% Net Demand 59% 60% 61% 62% 60% * No substitution effect for indoor lights was queried in the end-use survey Table 3.5 Residential Holiday Lighting Peak Demand (MW) Analysis of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Outdoor Applications Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North BC Hydro System Technical Potential Less: Non-Utilization Effect Substitution Effect Net Demand Percent of Technical Potential Non-Utilization Effect 38% 39% 36% 36% 38% Substitution Effect 6% 5% 9% 5% 6% Net Demand 55% 56% 55% 59% 56% HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 10

16 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES Table 3.6 combines indoor and outdoor lighting applications. The net effect of the non-utilization and substitution effects is to lower the estimate of baseline electrical demand for holiday lighting from 780 MW to 445 MW, a 43% reduction. The non-utilization effect explains the vast majority (89%) of the downward revision in the estimate. Table 3.6 Residential Holiday Lighting Peak Demand (MW) Analysis of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Indoor and Outdoor Applications Combined Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North BC Hydro System Technical Potential Less: Non-Utilization Effect Substitution Effect Net Demand Percent of Technical Potential Non-Utilization Effect 39% 39% 37% 37% 38% Substitution Effect 5% 4% 7% 4% 5% Net Demand 56% 57% 57% 59% 57% Lighting Style Tables 3.7 to 3.9 display the revised system and regional peak demand for indoor, outdoor, and combined indoor and outdoor holiday lighting styles. Technology Table 3.7 Residential Holiday Lighting Peak Demand (MW) by Lighting Style Indoor Applications Net of Non-Utilization Effect * Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North BC Hydro System C7 7 Watt Strings C7 5 Watt Strings Mini Strings Mini Variations Rope Lights Total * No substitution effect for indoor lights was queried in the end-use survey HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 11

17 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES Technology Table 3.8 Residential Holiday Lighting Peak Demand (MW) by Lighting Style Outdoor Applications Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North BC Hydro System C9 Strings C7 7 Watt Strings C7 5 Watt Strings Mini Strings Mini Variations Rope Lights Total Technology Table 3.9 Residential Holiday Lighting Peak Demand (MW) by Lighting Style Indoor and Outdoor Applications Combined Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North BC Hydro System C9 Strings C7 7 Watt Strings C7 5 Watt Strings Mini Strings Mini Variations Rope Lights Total Seasonal Load Profile The regional load profile for residential holiday lighting in the 2002 holiday season, adjusted for nonutilization and substitution effects is shown in Figure 3.0. Despite some very modest variations in the regional rates of non-utilization and substitution behaviour, the shape of the profile remains largely unchanged from that published in the Phase II report. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 12

18 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES 525 Figure 3.0 Residential Holiday Lighting Seasonal Peak Demand Profile by Region (Cumulative) Indoor and Outdoor Applications Combined Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Peak Demand (MW) North South Interior Vancouver Island Lower Mainland 0 11/01/02 11/08/02 11/15/02 11/22/02 11/29/02 12/06/02 12/13/02 12/20/02 12/27/02 1/03/03 1/10/03 Day Hourly Load Profile Figures 3.1 to 3.4 present the non-utilization and substitution effect adjusted hourly load profiles for indoor and outdoor holiday lighting applications for an average day during the week of Dec 20 27, The hourly shapes remain similar to that observed in the Phase II report. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 13

19 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES Figure 3.1 Hourly Demand Profile Residental Holiday Lighting Indoor Versus Outdoor Applications Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Megawatts Demand - Week Outdoor Indoor Hour Figure 3.2 shows the roughly equal contribution of mini light strings and C7 strings to the demand associated with indoor lighting displays. In contrast, Figures 3.3 and 3.4 demonstrate the overwhelming share of demand attributed to C9 and C7 strings. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 14

20 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES 120 Figure 3.2 Hourly Demand Profile Residential Holiday Lighting by Type Indoor Applications Net of Non-Utilization Effects Megawatts Demand - Week Rope Mini Variations Mini Strings C7-5W C7-7W Hour Megawatts Demand - Week Figure 3.3 Hourly Demand Profile Residential Holiday Lighting by Type Outdoor Applications Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Rope Mini Variations Mini Strings C7-5W C7-7W C9-7W Hour HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 15

21 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES 550 Figure 3.4 Hourly Demand Profile Residential Holiday Lighting by Type Indoor and Outdoor Applications Combined Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Megawatts Demand - Week Rope Mini Variations Mini Strings C7-5W C7-7W C9-7W Hour A regional breakdown of the hourly load profile is provided in Table HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 16

22 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES Table 3.10 Residential Holiday Lighting Peak Demand (MW) by Hour and Region December 25, 2002 Indoor and Outdoor Applications Combined Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Hour Lower Vancouver South BC Hydro North Beginning Mainland Island Interior System Peak Adjusted Electrical Consumption Estimates Tables 3.11 to 3.13 provide regional detail on electrical consumption associated with indoor and outdoor holiday lighting technologies, adjusted for non-utilization and substitution effects. Total BC Hydro system wide electrical consumption attributable to holiday lighting is estimated at 73.1 gigawatt-hours (GWh). HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 17

23 ADJUSTED BASELINE ESTIMATES Technology Table 3.11 Annual Electrical Consumption (GWh) Indoor Applications Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North BC Hydro System C7 7 Watt Strings C7 5 Watt Strings Mini Strings Mini Variations Rope Lights Total Technology Table 3.12 Annual Electrical Consumption (GWh) Outdoor Applications Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North BC Hydro System C9 Strings C7 7 Watt Strings C7 5 Watt Strings Mini Strings Mini Variations Rope Lights Total Technology Table 3.13 Annual Electrical Consumption (GWh) Indoor and Outdoor Applications Combined Net of Non-Utilization and Substitution Effects Lower Mainland Vancouver Island South Interior North BC Hydro System C9 Strings C7 7 Watt Strings C7 5 Watt Strings Mini Strings Mini Variations Rope Lights Total HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 18

24 4 SOURCES OF VARIANCE 4 Sources of Variance 4.1 Household Behaviors This study addressed two major sources of variance for residential holiday lighting. Other possible factors that may reduce the estimates of baseline demand and consumption for residential holiday lighting include: Type of holiday light string left in storage / unused Because bulb and string wattage varies depending on the holiday lighting style, the impact of the non-utilization effect could be more or less than estimated in this analysis depending on the style of string left in storage. As an example, if the proportion of C9 and C7 strings in storage is greater than that used in the installed (i.e., lit) displays, the demand estimates reported in this study would be overstated. Deviations from average daily operating schedules (daily diversity) For those households that do not use a timer to control their lights, operating hours of use may vary somewhat on a day to day basis depending on variations in household schedules. Deviations from average seasonal operating schedules (seasonal diversity) The number of days in the holiday season where holiday lights are in use may vary depending on variations in household schedules. Non-operating / missing bulbs Bulb counts, as reported by households, most likely include some burnt out or missing bulbs which means that baseline estimates of demand and consumption are somewhat overstated. There is no information at present to quantify the influence of these factors, individually or cumulatively on the electrical demand and consumption for residential holiday lighting. 4.2 Coincidence with BC Hydro s System Peak Demand Residential holiday lighting s impact on BC Hydro s system peak demand may be less than stated in this report because of: Non-coincident hourly peak demands The hourly peak demand for residential holiday lights may not coincide exactly with the hourly timing of the system peak demand. Non-coincident seasonal peak demands Peak demand for residential holiday lights occurs in the few days prior to, including, and immediately following Christmas day a time where other loads, particularly industrial, may be lower because facilities have shut down for the holiday period. Cross Influences Estimates of residential electrical demand in December that are typically associated with space heating (i.e., due to colder temperatures) and lighting load (i.e., due to fewer daylight hours) may be inadvertently capturing some of the increased load associated with residential holiday lighting. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 19

25 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 5 Summary and Conclusions This work has addressed two key sources of variance identified in the Phase II analysis of holiday lighting in British Columbia. Baseline technical demand and consumption estimates for residential holiday lighting in 2002 have been reduced by non-utilization and substitution factors. Summarizing the major observations from this research: Peak demand is now estimated at 445 MW, of which 78% is attributable to outdoor lighting. Total seasonal electrical consumption is estimated at 73.1 GWh. Of the two effects, the non-utilization of holiday light strings accounts for the vast majority (89%) of the reduction in peak demand from Phase II technical estimates. The weighted average percentage of holiday lights in use is 61%. This suggests that 6.5 strings (C9, C7, or mini lights), on average, remain in storage for every 10 strings in use. Factors found to influence non-utilization are similar to those that influence overall holiday lighting use, including age of respondent, the presence of children in the household, and household income. Almost one-quarter (24%) of households using outdoor holiday lights disconnect or remove one or more outdoor lights while their displays are in use. Households with outdoor holiday light displays disconnect, on average, 2.3 outdoor lights. Factors that influence the substitution effect are primarily the dwelling type and size. These estimates may still somewhat overstate the true impact of holiday lighting on BC Hydro s system if the proportion of C9 and C7 strings in storage is greater than that used in the installed (i.e., lit) displays. Also, deviations from operating schedules (daily or seasonal) as reported in the Phase I study and the presence of burnt out or missing bulbs will also reduce the demand and consumption estimates. Quantifying these two latter effects would most likely require end-use monitoring, an expensive data gathering option. Finally. residential holiday lighting s contribution to BC Hydro s seasonal peak demand (day and/or hour) may be less than the estimates provided in this report if the timing of peak demand differs from that of BC Hydro s system peak. HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 20 PHASE II - BASELINE ESTIMATES

26 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 6 Strategic Issues 6.1 Strings Remaining in Storage Latent Potential to Boost Demand? The 2003 residential end-use survey revealed that for every ten holiday light strings in use at any given time, another 6.5 strings remain in storage. This is a significant number of unlit holiday light strings. If brought into use, this could significantly increase BC Hydro s seasonal peak demand. At present, there is no information to suggest the number of strings left in storage varies from year to year. Similarly, there is no information at present that identifies the factors influencing the number of strings installed in any given season. 6.2 Strings Remaining in Storage Implications for Demand-Side Management Program Design The large stock of unused holiday lights could dramatically limit the success of any trade-in style of demand-side management (DSM) program designed to reduce peak load. Households, if given the option to trade in strings to receive a credit, set of energy efficient holiday light strings, or other incentive, could simply trade in their unused strings. In this scenario, the reduction in peak demand would be significantly less than predicted. There is the possibility that a trade-in or exchange style program could increase system load. If, for example, households traded unused strings for energy efficient varieties and then subsequently chose to augment their existing displays with these new strings, household electrical load would increase above that where no program was offered. If this behavior was widespread, the effect could be an increase in BC Hydro system peak demand. * * * * * * * HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT 21 PHASE II - BASELINE ESTIMATES

27 Appendix A Frequency Distributions Non-Utilization and Substitution Behaviors BC Hydro 2003 Residential End-Use Survey HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT

28 APPENDIX A Q37a(1). Please indicate how much of your total number of INDOOR lights you put up in the 2002 holiday season. Region Type of Dwelling Ownership Age of Home (Yrs) Size of Home (sq.ft) Heated Floors ========================== ========================= ============ ====== ============ ========================== ================== Lower Dpl/ 1000 Main- Van. South Sgl. Row/ Apt/ Own/ 7 or or Total land Isl Int. North Det. Town Condo Other Coop Rent Less Less Total Unweighted base All of them (100%) 31% 32% 29% 32% 31% 31% 33% 31% 22% 31% 30% 34% 32% 30% 34% 33% 30% 28% 31% 32% 28% Most (75%-99%) 15% 14% 18% 16% 16% 17% 14% 11% 15% 16% 8% 17% 16% 15% 9% 15% 19% 19% 12% 16% 19% A fair amount 13% 13% 12% 13% 15% 15% 11% 10% 12% 13% 14% 12% 12% 14% 9% 12% 17% 12% 11% 15% 14% (51%-74%) Some (25%-50%) 14% 13% 14% 14% 15% 13% 15% 13% 14% 13% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 14% 11% 15% 13% 14% 12% Few (Less than 25%) 16% 15% 17% 16% 14% 16% 16% 15% 17% 15% 16% 11% 16% 16% 16% 16% 14% 17% 16% 15% 18% None (0%) 11% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 12% 21% 19% 10% 17% 11% 10% 11% 21% 9% 8% 7% 16% 8% 8% Don't Know/Refused * * * * - * - * * * - 1% * * * * 1% - * * - HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT A-1

29 APPENDIX A Q37a(2). Please indicate how much of your total number of OUTDOOR lights you put up in the 2002 holiday season. Region Type of Dwelling Ownership Age of Home (Yrs) Size of Home (sq.ft) Heated Floors ========================== ========================= ============ ====== ============ ========================== ================== Lower Dpl/ 1000 Main- Van. South Sgl. Row/ Apt/ Own/ 7 or or Total land Isl Int. North Det. Town Condo Other Coop Rent Less Less Total Unweighted base All of them (100%) 35% 35% 34% 36% 35% 36% 33% 34% 33% 36% 29% 37% 38% 35% 35% 37% 36% 35% 38% 34% 35% Most (75%-99%) 16% 17% 16% 16% 16% 19% 14% 7% 16% 17% 9% 18% 17% 16% 8% 16% 20% 25% 10% 19% 19% A fair amount 11% 10% 12% 14% 14% 13% 9% 6% 11% 12% 8% 9% 11% 12% 9% 11% 13% 12% 9% 13% 12% (51%-74%) Some (25%-50%) 11% 12% 11% 10% 13% 12% 12% 10% 10% 12% 11% 8% 13% 12% 9% 13% 11% 10% 11% 12% 11% Few (Less than 25%) 10% 9% 10% 11% 10% 9% 14% 8% 15% 9% 12% 12% 8% 10% 9% 10% 8% 8% 10% 10% 9% None (0%) 15% 17% 16% 13% 12% 11% 18% 34% 15% 13% 31% 16% 13% 15% 31% 12% 11% 10% 21% 12% 13% Don't Know/Refused * * * * * * - 1% * * - 1% * * * * 1% - * * * HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT A-2

30 APPENDIX A Q37b(1). If you put up any outdoor lights, did you disconnect or remove any of your regular outdoor lights? Region Type of Dwelling Ownership Age of Home (Yrs) Size of Home (sq.ft) Heated Floors ========================== ========================= ============ ====== ============ ========================== ================== Lower Dpl/ 1000 Main- Van. South Sgl. Row/ Apt/ Own/ 7 or or Total land Isl Int. North Det. Town Condo Other Coop Rent Less Less Total Unweighted base Yes 24% 25% 23% 23% 21% 25% 23% 17% 23% 24% 19% 19% 22% 26% 20% 26% 24% 22% 20% 26% 25% No 76% 75% 77% 77% 79% 75% 77% 82% 77% 76% 81% 81% 78% 74% 80% 74% 76% 78% 80% 74% 75% Don't Know/Refused * - * - - * - * - * - * * - * - * - * * - HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT A-3

31 APPENDIX A Q37b(2). Number of lights you disconnected/removed Region Type of Dwelling Ownership Age of Home (Yrs) Size of Home (sq.ft) Heated Floors ========================== ========================= ============ ====== ============ ========================== ================== Lower Dpl/ 1000 Main- Van. South Sgl. Row/ Apt/ Own/ 7 or or Total land Isl Int. North Det. Town Condo Other Coop Rent Less Less Total Unweighted base Mean SD SE % 45% 44% 46% 39% 42% 66% 39% 38% 43% 54% 43% 26% 50% 50% 47% 45% 28% 43% 44% 49% 2 21% 20% 23% 22% 21% 22% 15% 16% 31% 22% 10% 11% 24% 22% 15% 22% 26% 17% 23% 21% 17% 3 8% 7% 9% 9% 7% 9% 4% 1% 1% 8% 2% 16% 15% 4% 1% 7% 10% 14% 3% 9% 10% 4 4% 4% 5% 4% 7% 6% 1% 1% - 5% 2% 2% 9% 3% - 2% 6% 12% 3% 5% 6% 5 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% % - 4% 3% * - 1% 2% 6% 1% 2% 2% 6 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% * 1% - 1% 1% - 4% 1% * 1% 1% * 4% 1% * 2% 7+ 2% 1% 2% 4% 3% 2% - 1% 3% 2% 1% - 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 6% 2% 2% 3% No response 14% 17% 9% 10% 14% 11% 11% 38% 17% 13% 22% 12% 15% 13% 26% 15% 6% 8% 19% 13% 6% Don't know/refused 5% 4% 6% 3% 7% 5% 2% 5% 9% 4% 9% 8% 4% 4% 7% 5% 4% 4% 6% 4% 6% HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT A-4

32 APPENDIX A Q37a(1). Please indicate how much of your total number of INDOOR lights you put up in the 2002 holiday season. Main Heating Fuel Age Gender Education HH Size HH Income ($000) ================================ =================== ============ ===================== ================== =================== Coll/ Nat. H.S. Voc/ 40- Total Elec Gas Wood Oil Oth M F or less Tech Univ <40 < Total Unweighted base All of them (100%) 31% 33% 31% 34% 22% 32% 37% 31% 30% 32% 30% 27% 30% 36% 27% 34% 31% 26% 33% 34% Most (75%-99%) 15% 13% 16% 17% 19% 15% 14% 17% 13% 17% 13% 13% 15% 17% 7% 15% 18% 10% 17% 19% A fair amount 13% 11% 14% 13% 14% 7% 14% 14% 12% 11% 15% 14% 15% 11% 7% 13% 16% 12% 13% 14% (51%-74%) Some (25%-50%) 14% 12% 14% 13% 14% 23% 14% 15% 11% 11% 16% 13% 15% 11% 11% 13% 15% 16% 14% 12% Few (Less than 25%) 16% 15% 16% 15% 17% 16% 13% 13% 19% 15% 16% 19% 16% 12% 21% 17% 13% 20% 14% 13% None (0%) 11% 16% 9% 8% 12% 6% 7% 9% 14% 12% 10% 13% 8% 12% 26% 9% 7% 16% 10% 7% Don't Know/Refused * * * - * - - * * * * * * * * * * * * * HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT A-5

33 APPENDIX A Q37a(2). Please indicate how much of your total number of OUTDOOR lights you put up in the 2002 holiday season. Main Heating Fuel Age Gender Education HH Size HH Income ($000) ================================ =================== ============ ===================== ================== =================== Coll/ Nat. H.S. Voc/ 40- Total Elec Gas Wood Oil Oth M F or less Tech Univ <40 < Total Unweighted base All of them (100%) 35% 36% 36% 37% 31% 34% 34% 33% 37% 37% 34% 33% 34% 39% 28% 38% 34% 30% 38% 37% Most (75%-99%) 16% 12% 19% 15% 15% 13% 17% 20% 13% 19% 14% 13% 18% 19% 6% 15% 22% 11% 16% 26% A fair amount 11% 12% 12% 10% 13% 11% 8% 12% 11% 10% 12% 13% 13% 9% 8% 11% 14% 11% 11% 10% (51%-74%) Some (25%-50%) 11% 9% 13% 12% 14% 7% 11% 12% 11% 10% 13% 12% 13% 8% 10% 12% 11% 13% 12% 11% Few (Less than 25%) 10% 8% 10% 12% 10% 16% 7% 8% 12% 9% 10% 13% 9% 7% 13% 10% 8% 16% 8% 6% None (0%) 15% 23% 11% 14% 17% 19% 22% 14% 15% 13% 17% 16% 13% 18% 34% 13% 11% 20% 15% 10% Don't Know/Refused * * * - * - - * * * * * * * * * * * * * HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT A-6

34 APPENDIX A Q37b(1). If you put up any outdoor lights, did you disconnect or remove any of your regular outdoor lights? Main Heating Fuel Age Gender Education HH Size HH Income ($000) ================================ =================== ============ ===================== ================== =================== Coll/ Nat. H.S. Voc/ 40- Total Elec Gas Wood Oil Oth M F or less Tech Univ <40 < Total Unweighted base Yes 24% 18% 27% 21% 24% 14% 22% 23% 25% 23% 24% 24% 24% 23% 22% 22% 25% 22% 23% 26% No 76% 81% 73% 79% 76% 86% 78% 77% 75% 77% 76% 76% 76% 77% 77% 78% 75% 78% 77% 74% Don't Know/Refused * * * - * - * - * * - * - - HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT A-7

35 APPENDIX A Q37b(2). Number of lights you disconnected/removed Main Heating Fuel Age Gender Education HH Size HH Income ($000) ================================ =================== ============ ===================== ================== =================== Coll/ Nat. H.S. Voc/ 40- Total Elec Gas Wood Oil Oth M F or less Tech Univ <40 < Total Unweighted base Mean SD SE % 42% 44% 46% 46% 50% 43% 46% 43% 44% 45% 45% 42% 46% 43% 43% 44% 38% 43% 49% 2 21% 18% 22% 23% 23% 9% 33% 21% 19% 24% 18% 21% 22% 19% 20% 23% 20% 16% 25% 19% 3 8% 6% 8% 9% 6% 5% 5% 9% 6% 7% 8% 4% 11% 7% 7% 6% 10% 5% 7% 11% 4 4% 3% 5% 6% 1% 9% 4% 3% 7% 6% 3% 3% 4% 7% 1% 5% 5% 3% 3% 8% 5 1% * 1% - 3% 4% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% - 2% 1% * 2% 2% 6 1% 1% 1% % 1% * 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - 2% * 7+ 2% 1% 2% % 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% Total No response 14% 23% 12% 4% 14% 17% 9% 11% 17% 11% 16% 17% 13% 12% 21% 14% 10% 29% 12% 4% Don't know/refused 5% 5% 4% 11% 7% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 8% 4% 3% HOLIDAY LIGHTING MARKET ASSESSMENT A-8