Cumulative Effects Assessment in Practice. Adrian Judd

Transcription

1 Cumulative Effects Assessment in Practice Adrian Judd

2 CEA Definition Cumulative effects assessment is a systematic procedure for identifying and evaluating the significance of effects from multiple pressures and/or activities. The analysis of the causes, pathways and consequences of these effects is an essential part of the process.

3 Background The thinking in this presentation derived from my work on: OSPAR Quality Status Report 2010 (human uses and impacts & ecosystem assessment) OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group Cumulative Effects (chaired by Adrian Judd & Prof. Thomas Backhaus) MMO OWF cumulative effects project (Cefas & PMSS) MMO environmental risk assessment project (Cefas, Fera & Cranfield University) EU FP7 research, e.g. ODEMM, Knowseas, COEXIST etc

4 Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) CEA requirement under, e.g. SEA, EIA, MSFD, Planning, Licensing policy & legislation; All OSPAR countries thinking/working on CEA concepts; Some [national] consensus on expectations from CEA, e.g. NERC/Renewable-UK Guiding Principles; No consensus on what CEA is; No consensus on how to undertake CEA ; Examples of multiple-activity assessment, e.g. Eastwood et al 2007; Stelzenmüller et al 2008; de Vries et al 2012 and 2010; Halpern et al 2008 and 2012; All EIAs / AAs include cumulative effect sections; No-one has ever undertaken a CEA! Logical to pool resources to progress work on CEA (if/where practicable)

5 Basics Cumulative effect from combined stressors is dependant on: The number of stressors; The nature of the stressor; The presence of susceptible receptors; The pathway between stressor and receptor; The likelihood of exposure; The individual strength of each stressor; The combined strength of multiple stressors; The interaction between stressors; The overlap of stressors in space and time.

6 Challenges: 2-D spatial interactions Limitations in spatial data Multiple pressure interactions Size Risk Uncertainty Nature Level 3-D spatial interactions (pressure mode of action) Sensitivity Location Stressor interactions Temporal interactions Complexity

7 GOVERNMENT / STAKEHOLDERS / INDUSTRY Scale GLOBAL REGIONAL SEA National, e.g. Charting Progress POPULATION DISTRIBUTION / MIGRATION PROJECT(S) e.g. North-East Atlantic (OSPAR) e.g. UK Gannet population SEA EIA / AA RESEARCH GOVERNMENT DEVELOPERS

8 CEA Definition Cumulative effects assessment is a systematic procedure for identifying and evaluating the significance of effects from multiple pressures and/or activities. The analysis of the causes, pathways and consequences of these effects is an essential part of the process.

9 Legislative Drivers (examples) EU EIA Directive likely significant effects of the proposed project on the environment [including] the direct effects and any indirect, secondary, cumulative, short, medium and longterm, permanent and temporary, positive and negative effects of the project EU MSFD EU Habitats Directive Any plan or project not directly connected with or necessary to the management of the site but likely to have a significant effect thereon, either individually or in combination with other plans or projects Marine strategies shall apply an ecosystem-based approach to the management of human activities, ensuring that the collective pressure of such activities is kept within levels compatible with the achievement of good environmental status The focus for all is the effects / pressures of activities 9

10 Single vs multiple sector effects Purpose of EU EIA, Habitats & MSF Directives is environmental protection Logical for assessments to be based on if and how the environment responds to pressures Environment will respond to cumulative and/or in combination effects whether from a single sector or multiple sectors (where effects overlap in space and time) Therefore cumulative / in combination effect screening, scoping & assessment should be based on multiple pressures/effects not sectors/activities 10

11 Cumulative / in combination principles Single sectors may have multiple activities Single activities may have multiple pressures Single pressures may effect multiple receptors Multiple sectors may have multiple activities Multiple activities may have multiple pressures Multiple pressures may effect multiple receptors 11

12 Sectors Activities - Pile driving - Dredging - Rock placement - Pelagic trawling - Electricity generation - Sea disposal - Grouting - Benthic trawling Pressures - Habitat loss - Habitat change - Underwater noise - Abrasion - Smothering - Contamination - Collision - Selective extraction of species Receptors

13 Combined effects 1. How sector(s) combine to have effect(s) [EIA] 2. Ecosystem based management (EBM) - how receptors respond to single or combined effects [CEA] Sector(s) 1 Effect(s) Receptor(s) 2 Response(s)

14 Options for Delivering Ecosystem based Marine Management (ODEMM) Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) (OECD, 2003)

15 ODEMM tools: Linkage Framework and Tables Degree of impact Persistence Recovery Frequency Spatial extent

16 ODEMM Methodology Understanding the pathways through which sectoractivities affect indicators is an essential first step in managing impact Assessed the link between Sectors and Ecological Components (via impact chains): 19 Sectors (105 activities) 25 Pressure types (mechanism of impact) 16 Ecological Components 7,600 chains if all links occurred 1,462 potential linkages identified Sector Activity generates Pressure impact Ecosystem A simple impact chain

17 From Pressure to Risk Impact Chains evaluated using 5 categorical assessment criteria: Spatial extent Frequency of occurrence Degree of Impact Pressure Persistence Ecological component resilience (recovery) Exposure Impact risk Recovery Lag Relative Risk From Knights et al (in prep) Group by: Sector Pressure Ecological component

18 Spatial map showing number of acute sector-pressures generated from (a) independent assessment, (b) Combined assessment and (c) difference between combined and independent assessment. From - Goodsir et al (in prep)

19 Are you confused yet? Now it gets really complicated!

20 Sectors Activities Pile driving New infrastructure Electricity generation Pressures Underwater noise Habitat loss Collision Habitat change Receptors

21 Stressors combine to have an effect equal to the sum of the component parts x = Stressors combine to have an effect greater than the sum of the component parts x = Stressors combine to have an effect less than the sum of the component parts x = Stressors combine to have the same effect x = Stressors combine to have a different effect x x = x x =?

22 Sectors Activities Pile driving New infrastructure Electricity generation Pressures Underwater noise Habitat loss Collision Habitat change Receptors

23 Outline CEA Framework

24 Definitions of key terms Regulatory context for CEA : SEA EIA HRA/AA Generic association matrices, e.g. -Sector - Sector Generic -Sector Activities Source Pathway Receptor - Activities Pressures conceptual models - Pressures - Receptors Site / Regional characterisation Risk-based assessment: - Problem definition - Likelihood of exposure (S-P-R) Filtering establish spatial and temporal boundaries for receptors/features (justification documented for which issues screened in and out) Refinement of issues for inclusion in the CEA Specific S-P-R associations and assessment (refined from generic matrices, analyses, assessment): Sector Sector interactions Activity Activity interactions Pressure Pressure Interactions CEA conclusion (evidence base and rationale documented)

25 Refinement of problem formulation when necessary FORMULATE PROBLEM ADDRESS RISK ITERATE COMMUNICATE LEARN ASSESS RISK APPRAISE OPTIONS Prepared by Cefas, Fera & Cranfield University for the MMO (2013) Reconsideration of options when necessary Refinement of risk assessment when necessary

26 TCE Discussion Paper Renewable-UK workshops Renewable-UK Guiding Principles MMO OWF CEA Report MMO Co-location Report MMO ERA Report Knowseas RESPONSE ODEMM FLOWBEC EBAO VECTORS QBEX Evolution of the Assessment Guidance for cumulative effects with in an increasing evidence base (MMO 2013)

27 Thank you Questions?