Energy efficiency and Energy Conserva1on in Lao PDR

Transcription

1 Asia Pacific Regional Ini1a1ves on Energy, Environment and Ecosystems (3E) Nexus for Sustainable Development Hulhule Island hotel, Maldives, February 2014 Energy efficiency and Energy Conserva1on in Lao PDR By Khamphone Nanthavong, Faculty of Engineering Na1onal University of Laos

2 contents Some Background informa1on Lao Energy sector Some findings 2

3 Background informa1on Land locked Area: Sq. km Popula1on: 6.6 million Density: 28 people /sq.km) Terrain: 70% mountainous coverage Main Water artery: Mekong and its 8 tributaries Main income sources: Services Industry (mining, garment, power export) Agriculture and Forestry Electrifica1on rate: 84% (household base, 2012) 3

4 Background: Economic GDP: 9,418 mln US$ (current market price), 1,396 US$/capita (lower Middle Income) Growth: 7-8% GDP composi1on trend: 100% 90% 80% 40% 39% Services 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 28% 33% Industry 20% 10% 32% 28% Agricultur e 0%

5 GDP growth trend (source: WB) Lao PDR Cambodia Vietnam Thailand 5

6 Lao Energy sector Energy resources: Fossil fuels: Oil and natural gas: none Coal: proved reserve 600 million tons (mainly lignite) Renewable energy: Hydropower 26,000 MW Small hydropower 2000 MW (capacity less than 15 MW) Solar energy: radia1on kwh/sq.m/day Biomass: energy crops, agro- forestry wastes Wind power: rela1vely good poten1al in central part 6

7 Energy sector: final energy Final energy consump1on: 4% annual growth shares by types and sectors (MEM, 2010) Energy consump1on by type Charcoal 5.54% Coal 2.20% Oil 23.18% Agriculture 1% Energy Consump1on by sectors Industry 8% Transporta 1on 22% LPG 0.07% Firewood 59.93% Hydro electricity 9.08% Residen1al 55% Commercia l 14% 7

8 Energy sector: final energy Final energy consump1on: trend (MEM) Consump1on by types (unit: ktoe) Consump1on by sectors ((unit: ktoe)) 2, , , , , , residen1al 1, Fuel wood Hydro oil , Commercial Transport Industry Coal Oil LPG Hydro electricity Firewood Charcoal Industry Transporta1on Commercial Residen1al Agriculture 8

9 2,500 2,000 Final Energy intensity(fei) FEC ( ): KTOE FE demand: 4% growth, annual (MEM- JICA, 2012) GDP: 15,915 mln US$ (current PPP), FEI: 145 TOE/mln US$ (current PPP) Million US$(current PPPUS$ 15, , , , , , , ,500 1, , ,000 6, , , , , , FEC (KTOE) FEI(TOE/min US$) GDP (million Current PPP US$) - 9

10 GDP vs Final Energy Consump1on(FEC) Billion LAK 25,000 20,000 Current trend: FE Energy: à Servicesà Industryà A/C Dominant income: à Servicesà A/Cà Industry Future trend? Further Economic development (Industry, service) GDP growth Slowdown kg OE 350, , ,000 15, ,000 10, , ,000 5,000 50, FEC_AC FEC_Industry FEC_Services GDP_AC GDP_Industry GDP_Services - 10

11 CO2 Emission 0.3 T/capita, 2010 (source: WB) East Asia and Pacific Lower Middle Income Lao PDR 11

12 Electricity Produc1on and consump1on 14, , , ,000.0 GWh Year 2012 sta1s1cs: Power genera1on: ~100% hydropower Export = 81% of genera1on Import= 43% of consump1on 6, , , Genera1on Domes1c Supply Export Import 12

13 Electricity consump1on by sectors GWh Gov. offices 6% Int. Industry organiza1o 29% n 0% Agriculture 1% Entertainm ent 0% Residen1al Commercial Entertainment Gov. offices Agriculture Int. organiza1on By Sector Shares (2012) Residen1al 38% Commercia l 26%

14 Some reasons to start thinking about Energy Efficiency in Lao PDR Final energy demand (4% annual growth) 5900 ktoe by 2030 (~ 2.5 1mes of 2010): Industry à 31% (8% in 2010); 15% annual growth Transport à 29% (22%), 8% annual growth Residen1al à 21% (55%), decreasing share Commercialà 10% (14%), decreasing share The rest: negligibly small changes 14

15 Some reasons to start thinking about EE (cont.) Increasing energy import (MEM forecast) Oil import (~ 4 1mes of 2010 demand) Increased emission Electricity import Electricity demand in 2020 to increase by ~ 5 1mes of 2010 (energy and capacity) Power Deficit con1nues (at least by 2020?) EDL new capacity (including shares from PP) Concession of some large HPP comes to end 15

16 Some reasons to start thinking about EE (cont.) Commitment of GOL (at EMM5, Brunei Darussalam 2012) To reduce demand for final energy by 10% by the year 2030 Forecast (BAU): 5900 ktoe by 2030 To reduce: 590 ktoe? Will Lao PDR cope with given commitment? 16

17 Some reasons to start thinking about EE (cont.) Situa1on of Energy Efficiency Lack of public awareness on EE Energy users lack knowledge/awareness on EE products/ technologies/measures Lack of ins1tu1onal support to EE Insufficient informa1on on energy consump1on panern Lack of policy and legisla1ve framework to promote EE Lack of support measures for EE promo1on Insufficient ins1tu1onal capacity in rela1on to EE (planning, implementa1on) 17

18 Conclusions: Is it 1me to seriously think about EE in Laos? Draoing of EE policy is in progress (ADB support) Sectors of Focus: Industry Residen1al Commercial and Office Building Transport Biomass energy consump1on Series of stakeholders consulta1on workshops To propose for Prime Minister approval by end of

19 Asia Pacific Regional Ini1a1ves on Energy, Environment and Ecosystems (3E) Nexus for Sustainable Development Maldives, February 2014 Thank you for your kind anen1on! 19