NAAQS Attainment & PSD Modeling Update

Transcription

1 NAAQS Attainment & PSD Modeling Update Jim Boylan Manager, Planning and Support Program Georgia EPD - Air Protection Branch Air & Waste Management Association REGULATORY UPDATE CONFERENCE Atlanta, GA May 10, 2017

2 BACKGROUND Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Formed in the atmosphere & directly emitted Local and regional pollutant Cardiovascular health effects Ozone Formed in the atmosphere (NOx + VOC + sunlight) Regional pollutant Respiratory health effects Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) and Lead (Pb) Directly emitted Local pollutant SO 2 Respiratory health effects Pb Neurological, cardiovascular, and renal effects 2

3 EXCEEDANCE vs. VIOLATION Exceedance of the NAAQS PM hour measurement > 35 mg/m 3 Ozone 8-hour measurement > 70 ppb SO 2 1-hour measurement > 75 ppb Pb 24-hour measurement > 0.15 mg/m 3 Violation of the NAAQS PM 2.5 Annual arithmetic mean, averaged over 3 years > 12.0 mg/m 3 PM th percentile of 24-hour daily average, averaged over 3 years > 35 mg/m 3 Ozone Annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour concentration, averaged over 3 years > 70 ppb SO 2 99 th percentile of 1-hour daily maximum concentrations, averaged over 3 years > 75 ppb Pb Rolling 3-month average > 0.15 mg/m 3 3

4 EXCEEDANCE REPORTS GA EPD writes detailed reports for every exceedance of the NAAQS (O 3, PM 2.5, SO 2, Pb). INITIAL REPORT Must be completed within 2 business days after the exceedance. FINAL REPORT Submitted after all relevant information has been collected. This could be days, weeks, or months. Reports include discussions on meteorology, emissions, and air quality. Wind rose, pollution rose, time series plots, location of emission sources, precursor analysis, HYSPLIT back trajectories, satellite images, etc 4

5 PM 2.5 NAAQS 5

6 ANNUAL PM 2.5 DESIGN VALUE TRENDS 6

7 ANNUAL PM 2.5 NAAQS 1997 NAAQS 15 mg/m 3 Atlanta redesigned to attainment on February 24, 2016 (Prior to February 24, 2016) 2012 NAAQS 12 mg/m 3 All counties in Georgia designated attainment on September 6,

8 PM 2.5 NAAQS EXCEEDANCES Wildfires impacted PM 2.5 monitor in Columbus on November 24, μg/m 3, Columbus Airport, (Muscogee) Prescribed fires impacted PM 2.5 monitor in Albany on March 21, μg/m 3, Albany, (Dougherty) Wildfires impacted PM 2.5 monitors in Georgia from November 10 18, monitors in Georgia 8

9 COLUMBUS - NOVEMBER 24,

10 ALBANY - MARCH 21,

11 PM 2.5 MONITOR HITS (CONTINUOUS) AIRS Monitor County Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov Macon-Forestry Bibb Savannah L&A Chatham Athens Clarke South DeKalb DeKalb Confederate Avenue Fulton Gwinnett Tech Gwinnett McDonough Henry Warner Robins Houston Columbus Airport Muscogee Augusta Richmond Rossville Walker Red bold values were analyzed as possible exceedances of the PM 2.5 NAAQS. 11

12 PM 2.5 MONITOR HITS (FRM) AIRS Monitor County Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov Macon-Allied Bibb Macon-Forestry Bibb Savannah-Mercer Chatham Athens Clarke Forest Park Clayton Kennesaw Cobb South DeKalb DeKalb Fire Station #8 Fulton GA Tech Near Road Fulton Brunswick Glynn Gwinnett Tech Gwinnett Gainesville Hall Warner Robins Houston Augusta Richmond Rossville Walker Sandersville Washington Gordon Wilkinson 55.5 Red bold values were flagged in AQS as possible exceptional events due to wildfires. 12

13 PM 2.5 Concentrations NOVEMBER 10, 2016 Hazardous Mapping System 13

14 PM 2.5 Concentrations NOVEMBER 11, 2016 Hazardous Mapping System 14

15 PM 2.5 Concentrations NOVEMBER 12, 2016 Hazardous Mapping System 15

16 PM 2.5 Concentrations NOVEMBER 13, 2016 Hazardous Mapping System 16

17 PM 2.5 Concentrations NOVEMBER 14, 2016 Hazardous Mapping System 17

18 PM 2.5 Concentrations NOVEMBER 15, 2016 Hazardous Mapping System 18

19 PM 2.5 Concentrations NOVEMBER 16, 2016 Hazardous Mapping System 19

20 PM 2.5 Concentrations NOVEMBER 17, 2016 Hazardous Mapping System 20

21 ANNUAL PM 2.5 DESIGN VALUES 21

22 24-HOUR PM 2.5 DESIGN VALUES 22

23 OZONE NAAQS 23

24 OZONE DESIGN VALUE TRENDS 24

25 OZONE DESIGN VALUES 25

26 2008 OZONE NAAQS (75 PPB) data 77 ppb (above 75 ppb) Bumped up to Moderate by EPA on August 27, data 73 ppb (below 75 ppb) Maintenance Plan submitted to EPA on July 18, 2016 EPA proposed redesignation to attainment on 12/23/16. Waiting for final EPA approval 26

27 October 1, 2015 NAAQS = 70 ppb 2015 OZONE NAAQS (70 PPB) October 1, 2016 EPD recommended 8 counties as nonattainment Based on data 5 factor analysis Photochemical grid modeling October 1, 2017(?) EPA designations finalized? Atlanta would likely be Marginal No additional emission controls required 27

28 5-FACTOR ANALYSIS (FACTOR 1) Air Quality Data Georgia has five violating ozone monitors based on data. County AQS Site ID Local Site Name DV DV Fulton Confederate Avenue Rockdale Monastery Henry McDonough-County Extension Office Gwinnett Gwinnett Tech DeKalb South DeKalb Douglas W. Strickland Street Pike Georgia Station Cobb Kennesaw-National Guard Dawson Dawsonville, Georgia Forestry Commission Coweta Newnan Paulding Yorkville, King Farm Clarke Fire Station #

29 5-FACTOR ANALYSIS (FACTOR 2) Emissions and Emissions-Related Data NOx emissions VOC emissions Population data Vehicle use data EXAMPLE: NOx emissions NOx emissions > 10,000 TPY More than double the CSA average NOx emissions NOx emission density > 26 tpy/mile 2 More than 75% higher than the Atlanta CSA average NOx emission density Fulton, Gwinnett, DeKalb, Cobb, Bartow, and Clayton account for 51.5% of all NOx emissions in the Atlanta CSA 29

30 5-FACTOR ANALYSIS (FACTOR 3) Meteorological Data HYSPLIT 24-hour back-trajectory analysis for all exceedance days (> 70 ppb) at each violating ozone monitor for 2013 and HYSPLIT maps generated by EPA Ozone Designation Mapping Tool. 30

31 5-FACTOR ANALYSIS (FACTORS 4 AND 5) Factor 4: Geography/Topography This factor did not play a significant role in this evaluation of the Atlanta CSA since it does not have any geographical or topographical barriers significantly limiting air pollution transport within its air shed. Factor 5: Jurisdictional Boundaries All counties discussed in this technical analysis are within Georgia and fall within the jurisdiction of GA EPD. The Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville CBSA has previously established nonattainment boundaries associated with both the 1-hour and the 8- hour ozone NAAQS. Atlanta nonattainment boundary for the 1-hour ozone standard Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Paulding, and Rockdale. Atlanta nonattainment boundary for the hour ozone standard Barrow, Bartow, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Hall, Henry, Newton, Paulding, Rockdale, Spalding, and Walton. Atlanta nonattainment boundary for the hour ozone standard Bartow, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Newton, Paulding, and Rockdale. 31

32 MODELING DOMAINS (12 KM GRIDS) LADCO (SEMAP2) GA12C 12US2 32

33 SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION APPROACH A contribution threshold of 1.0 ppb was used to determine which counties significantly contribute to the violating monitors. Examined contribution from 39 counties to the 5 violating ozone monitors The 1.0 ppb threshold was chosen based on EPA s recently proposed significant impact level for single source PSD modeling Draft Guidance on Significant Impact Levels for Ozone and Fine Particles in the Prevention of Significant Deterioration Permitting Program,

34 COUNTY LEVEL CONTRIBUTIONS 34

35 RESULTS: 5-FACTOR ANALYSIS AND APCA 35

36 PROPOSED RECOMMENDATION Fulton Gwinnett DeKalb Cobb Bartow Clayton Henry Rockdale 36

37 Ozone [ppb] PIKE - OCTOBER 13, Pike (1-Hour O3) Conyers (1-Hour O3) Hour of Day 37

38 DAWSONVILLE - APRIL 10,

39 FINAL OZONE EXCEEDANCE REPORT Trend analysis of ozone concentrations and meteorological conditions in Atlanta during Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis HYSPLIT back trajectory Detailed analysis of VOC and NOx precursor measurements 39

40 CONTRIBUTION SUMMARY Low relative humidity in the afternoon; High daily maximum air temperature; Low cloud coverage; High ozone on previous days; Low wind speed; NOx emissions, mainly from on-road mobile sources VOC emissions, mainly from biogenic sources Local transport of emissions from the Atlanta urban core to monitors outside the urban core. Most of the ozone exceedances were local events rather than regional events. 40

41 SO 2 NAAQS 41

42 SO 2 DESIGNATIONS Round 1 Violating Monitors October 4, EPA designated 29 areas nonattainment in 16 states based on monitored violations using SO 2 data. Round 2 Sierra Club Consent Decree July 2, EPA makes designations Plant Scherer in Monroe County Monroe, Jones, Jasper, Butts, Lamar, Upson, and Crawford (July 12, 2016) July 1, Emission updates due for Plant Scherer Round 3 Modeling Approach January 13, Modeling analysis due to EPA December 31, EPA makes designations based on modeling Round 4 Monitoring Approach January 1, New monitors operational December 31, EPA makes designations based on monitoring data 42

43 SO 2 DATA REQUIREMENTS RULE Site Name County 2014 SO 2 (tpy) EPD Characterization Approach for Air Quality Georgia Power Company - Plant Scherer Monroe 5,176 Air Quality Modeling International Paper - Savannah Chatham 8,123 Air Quality Modeling Georgia Power Company - Plant Bowen Bartow 7,204 Air Quality Modeling Georgia Power Company - Plant Wansley Heard 2,443 Air Quality Modeling { Georgia Power Company - Plant McIntosh Effingham 2,268 Air Quality Modeling Georgia-Pacific Consumer Products (Savannah River Mill) Effingham 2,105 Air Quality Modeling International Paper - Rome Floyd 2,356 Ambient Monitoring Georgia Power Company - Plant Yates Coweta 8,105 Permanently Retired (Units 1-5) and Permit Limit (Units 6-7) Georgia Power Company - Plant Kraft Chatham 5,140 Permanently Retired Georgia Power Company - Plant Branch Putnam 32,545 Permanently Retired January 1, 2017 New monitor operational in Rome. January 13, 2017 Modeling analysis and documentation of retirements/permit limits due to EPA. 43

44 16:00 16:05 16:10 16:15 16:20 16:25 16:30 16:35 16:40 16:45 16:50 16:55 17:00 17:05 17:10 17:15 17:20 17:25 17:30 17:35 17:40 17:45 17:50 17:55 18:00 18:05 18:10 18:15 18:20 18:25 18:30 18:35 18:40 18:45 18:50 18:55 SO2 Concentrations [ppb] AUGUSTA SEPTEMBER 16,

45 AUGUSTA OCTOBER 14,

46 ROME DECEMBER 18,

47 LEAD NAAQS 47

48 COLUMBUS NOVEMBER 20,

49 PSD MODELING 49

50 GA EPD GUIDANCE UPDATES Georgia EPD PSD Permit Application Guidance Document Last updated September, Adding updates to modeling section to account for revisions to EPA s Guideline on Air Quality Models (Appendix W) Toxic Impact Assessment Guideline Last updated March, 2017 (before that, 1998) MERs Minimum Emission Rates for screening Will be updated again in May, 2017 (minor/typos) 50

51 PSD EMISSIONS INVENTORY GA EPD created a statewide emission inventory for the PSD air impact analysis NAAQS & Increment PM 10, PM 2.5, NOx, SO 2, and CO Follow 40 CFR 51 Appendix W Contractor support from AMEC Facilities can submit updates to EPD Emissions Inventory Web Application Select location and radius AERMOD ready file Excel file with Q/d calculations Release to the public in June,

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55 REVISIONS TO APPENDIX W EPA published revisions to the Guideline on Air Quality Models (Appendix W). 82 FR 5182 (2017) Single-source impacts on ozone and secondary PM 2.5 Two tiered approach TIER 1 - Use existing modeling (e.g., MERPs) TIER 2 - Perform photochemical grid modeling EPA will allow one year to transition to the use of new models, techniques and procedures in the context of PSD permit applications and other regulatory modeling applications. 55

56 EQUIVALENT DIRECT PM 2.5 EMISSIONS PM 2.5 offset trading ratios can be used to account for secondary formation of PM 2.5 in AERMOD. Convert SO 2 and NOx emissions into equivalent direct PM 2.5 emissions. 100:1 100 TPY SO 2 = 1 TPY direct PM :1 100 TPY SO 2 = 10 TPY direct PM 2.5 1:1 100 TPY SO 2 = 100 TPY direct PM :1 100 TPY SO 2 = 200 TPY direct PM 2.5 This is ~100% conversion of SO 2 to (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 Lower PM 2.5 offset ratios will produce more secondary PM

57 DRAFT SO 2 AND NOx OFFSET RATIOS SO 2 Ratios Distance Winter Spring Summer Fall < 1 km 250:1 70:1 20:1 40:1 1 4 km 130:1 35:1 10:1 25:1 > 4 km 40:1 10:1 5:1 10:1 NOx Ratios Distance Winter Spring Summer Fall < 1 km 175:1 80:1 50:1 70:1 1 4 km 100:1 45:1 30:1 45:1 > 4 km 40:1 20:1 20:1 20:1 57

58 EXAMPLE PSD APPLICATION Direct PM 2.5 emissions = TYP SO 2 emissions = TPY NOx emissions = TPY Equivalent Direct PM 2.5 emissions = direct PM 2.5 emissions + (SO 2 emissions)/(so 2 offset ratio) + (NOx emissions)/(nox offset ratio) = (190.93)/5 + (340.65)/20 = = TPY Run AERMOD with TPY to account for secondary PM 2.5 formation 58

59 ANNUAL PM 2.5 vs. SIL 59

60 MERPs APPROACH EPA s Guidance on the Development of Modeled Emission Rates for Precursors (MERPs) as a Tier l Demonstration Tool for Ozone and PM 2.5 under the PSD Permitting Program MERP = Precursor Emissions SIL Conc. Max. Model Conc. EPA s recommended SILs for NAAQS Ozone SIL = 1.0 ppb Annual PM 2.5 SIL = 0.2 mg/m 3 Daily PM 2.5 SIL = 1.2 mg/m 3 GA EPD s approach Use MERPs for Eastern U.S. from EPA s MERPs guidance Use MERPs for Atlanta, GA from EPA s MERPs guidance Develop MERPs for locations across Georgia with photochemical modeling Perform photochemical grid modeling for select permit applications 60

61 CONTACT INFORMATION James Boylan, Ph.D. Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA

62 QUESTIONS? 62