Energy transition and implications for energy access. Dr Roger Dargaville, Melbourne Energy Institute ADB Workshop, August 30, 2016

Transcription

1 Energy transition and implications for energy access Dr Roger Dargaville, Melbourne Energy Institute ADB Workshop, August 30, 2016

2 Overview Melbourne Energy Institute Designing an electricity system of the future Generation technologies Renewable (and fossil) resources Transmission connections Demand patterns Storage options Case study Suro Craic, Timor L Este Off-grid or on-grid? How much demand? Cost

3 Melbourne Energy Institute overview Focal point for energy related research Facilitator for multi-disciplinary research (i.e. seed funding) Teaching (MES, PhD College), outreach (i.e. seminars) Research areas: Large-scale system modelling Energy storage Regulatory frameworks Biofuels Efficient combustion Urban air quality EVs Geothermal Energy Markets Building material Carbon capture and storage Demand response Transmission & Dist. modelling Governance Policy Use to find a researcher in your field

4 Types of generators Dispatchable Non-renewable Coal, gas, diesel, nuclear Renewable hydro, bioenergy, concentrating solar thermal, geothermal Can be switched on/ramped when needed (at different rates) Non-Dispatchable (or semi-dispatchable) Wind, solar PV Only available when the sun shines/wind blows

5 Costs of different technologies Current market prices

6 Best combination? Factor that need to be considered Cost per MWh Emissions Reliability Dispatchability Ramp rates

7 Resource Assessment Not all resources are available everywhere Can use in situ observations or models to determine renewable resource quality IRENA has global maps: Some locations have good wind, others good solar, some good biomass.

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9 By world standards, Australia has first class wind and solar resources

10 Transmission Access to transmission allows Expensive to build Low cost (scales of economy) More reliability (greater redundancy) Stand alone grid (i.e. micro grid) Less expensive to build Less reliable Needs more generation capacity

11 Demand What does the demand profile look like? Just when required? Constant component (baseload) High peaks? Can load be shifted from one time to another

12 GW demand in Victoria for a) Heatwave in Jan 2014 Wind Hydro Gas Intermediate Peak b) Normal week Coal Base-load Jan

13 Storage Store electricity when generation available but demand low Return power to grid when demand increases and generation is low Lead acid Lithium ion Pumped hydro Generally expensive, but maybe suitable for small amounts of demand

14 Energy access in remote communities What level of demand is required? How to best meet that demand Use model (OSeMOSYS Open Source Energy Modeling System) Look at off grid and grid connected options => what is the best course of action?

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16 The case study Approximately 350 households No grid connection Limited usage of electric appliances, powered by stand alone systems (diesel or pico PV) Suro Craic, Timor L Este Open-fire is the main cooking method

17 Discussion: Which members of the community are responsible for the different energy consumption types?

18 Electricity demand Appliances related to each tier of access (World Bank definition) Discussion: Which members of the community are responsible for the different energy consumption types?

19 Electricity model Simplified reference energy system for electricity

20 OSeMOSYS Open source long-run energy planning model Uses freely available optimisation routines Has similar functionality to MARKAL TIMES and other professional tools. Finds the least cost combination of technologies.

21 Results: Electricity demand Lighting Communication Water heating Other Food processing Communication Air circulation/cooling

22 Model results Renewables cheaper than fossil

23 Model results Grid at 10 km Total discounted cost for household in the years for reaching different tiers of electricity access in the rural village of Suro Craic Grid electricity may be cheap or expensive Grid connection begins to make sense for tier 4 and 5 Off grid solutions

24 Conclusions OSeMOSYS applied for rural energy modeling Insights for: Estimating the costs of different energy access targets Grid vs Mini-Grid vs Stand Alone dynamics Possible future developments include other cases studies and integrating the model with geo-spatial approaches

25 Discussion points What is the appropriate level of energy demand? What role does gender play in terms of energy use? Which generation technologies to use? Grid or off-grid?