THE ENERGY MARKET IN BRAZIL

Transcription

1 THE ENERGY MARKET IN BRAZIL Seminar: El desafío energético del Siglo XXI La estrategia de los países vecinos frente a la crisis energética Mauricio T. Tolmasquim CEO Energy Research Office - EPE May 18 th, 2010 Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 1

2 ENERGY SUPPLY STRUCTURE IN BRAZIL: AN EXAMPLE FOR THE WORLD Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 2

3 ENERGY SUPPLY STRUCTURE: BRAZIL X WORLD BRAZIL 2009 Sugar Cane 18.1% Oil 37.8% Biomass (*) 13.9% Hydraulic Energy and Electricity 15.3% Uranium (U 3 O 8 ) 1.4% Natural Gas 8.7% Coal 4.8% Uranium (U 3 O 8 ) 5.9% Hydraulic Energy and Electricity 2.0% OECD 2008 Renewables (*) 5.2% Oil 37.8% (*) includes firewood, charcoal and other Renewables in the Energy Matrix = (Hydraulic + Sugar Cane Products + Biomass) = 47.3% Coal 20.9% Natural Gas 23.7% (*) includes renewable fuels, waste, solar power, wind power, geothermal and other Sources: EPE [BEN Preliminary Results] and IEA [Key World Energy Statistics ] Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 3

4 QUALITY OF THE ENERGY MATRIX: BRAZIL X WORLD OECD Countries (2008) World (2007) Brazil (2009) Renewable 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Non-Renewable Sources: EPE [BEN Preliminary Results] and IEA [Key World Energy Statistics ] Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 4

5 ELETRIC POWER SUPPLY STRUCTURE: BRAZIL X WORLD WORLD 2007 Hidráulica Hydraulic ³ 85.0% 85,0% BRAZIL 2009 Natural Gas 20.9% Coal 41.5% Wind Eólica 0.24% 0,24% Biomassa (*) (*) ² 5.4% 5,4% Derivados de Oil Petróleo 2.9% 2,9% Nuclear 2,5% 2.5% Gás Natural Natural Gas 2,6% 2.6% Carvão e Derivados ¹ Coal 1,3% 1.3% 90.6% Renewable Nuclear 13.8% Hydraulic 15.6% Other 2.6% 18.2% Renewable Oil 5.6% (*) mainly generated from the co-generation with sugar cane Sources: EPE [BEN Preliminary Results] and IEA [Key World Energy Statistics ] Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 5

6 CHALLENGES FOR IMPROVING THE ENERGY SYSTEM How is the energy system that we want Energy security Affordability Sustainability (social, economic and environmental) Resiliency to energy prices volatility Diversification of sources Efficiency in the production and consumption TECHNOLOGY Main conditions to consider Current energy system Resources availability Economic endowment Social conditions Priorities and solutions strictly related to country profiles Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 6

7 TECHNOLOGY CHOICE: BEST FIT FOR THE RIGHT GOALS TECHNOLOGY CHOICE Hydro plants Best fit technologies Alternative Renewables Oil offshore E&P Bioenergy from sugarcane Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 7

8 huge system strongly interconnected hydro predominance BRAZILIAN POWER SYSTEM Users(1) Energy supply(2) 65.5 million (55.9 million households) 509 TWh (includes 42 TWh from Itaipu Paraguay share) (about 60% of South America) (France, 2007: 513 TWh) growing market Peak Load (3) 70,450 MW (Italy: 54,100 MW; France: 86,300 MW) Sources: EPE, ONS (1) National interconnected system + stand-alone systems (Dec, 2009) (2) National interconnected system + stand-alone systems (2009) (3) National interconnected system only (Feb, 2010) Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 8

9 BRAZILIAN POWER SYSTEM: GENERATION Hydropower plants in Brazil > 6,000 MW > 2,000 MW > 1,000 MW < 1,000 MW Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 9

10 BRAZILIAN POWER SYSTEM: TRANSMISSION Source: EPE (PDE 2019) (Dec, 2009) Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 10

11 Brazil has the third biggest hydro potential of the world... Estimated Brazilian hydro potential 260 GW TWh/year BRAZILIAN HYDRO POTENTIAL Others, 44% China, 13% Russia, 12%... however only one third of it has been developed Brazil, 10% 66% 34% USA, 4% Congo, 5% India, 5% Canada, 7% in operation or under construction to develop Source: Tolmasquim, M. (coord). Geração de Energia Elétrica no Brasil. Ed. Interciência, Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 11

12 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES HAVE ALREADY USED MOST OF THEIR HYDRO POTENTIAL % of technical potential Notes: 1. Based on data from World Energy Council, considering plants in operation and under constructions, at the endd of In the case of Brazil, based on data from EPE and Atlas de Energia Elétrica do Brasil, published by ANEEL. In the case of China, based on data from Worldwatch Institute. 3. Selected countries have 2/3 of developed world hydro potential. Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 12

13 MOST OFBRAZILIAN HYDRO POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP IS ON THEAMAZONBASIN Hydro potential to develop Amazon basin, 59% Total hydro potential Amazon basin, 42% Amazon biome area as percentage of Brazilian territory 41% Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 13

14 BRAZILIANAMAZON OCCUPATION (environmental protected areas and indigenous lands) Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 14

15 AMAZON HYDRO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING: ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Spawning Chanel fishes swim upstream Chanel entrance Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 15

16 AMAZON HYDRO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING: THE CASE OF THEMADEIRARIVERHYDROPOTENTIAL minimization of environmental impacts only one dam solution low fall power plants Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 16

17 AMAZON HYDRO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING: THE CASE OF THEMADEIRARIVERHYDROPOTENTIAL only one dam solution minimization of environmental impacts reservoirs were limited at level a little higher than natural level of the river low fall power plants Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 17

18 BELO MONTE POWER PLANT XINGU RIVER BASIN OLD VS NEW INVENTORY UHE KAIAPO UHE SÃO FÉLIX UHE POMBAL UHE IPIXUNA Old Inventory (80 s) UHE BABAQUARA UHE ALTAMIRA UHE BELO MONTE UHE KARARAO Source: Eletrobras [ Hydroelectric Inventory of the Xingu River Basin - October 2007 ] Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 18

19 BELO MONTE POWER PLANT XINGU RIVER BASIN OLD VS NEW INVENTORY UHE KAIAPO UHE SÃO FÉLIX UHE POMBAL UHE IPIXUNA Old Inventory (80 s) New Inventory (2007) UHE BABAQUARA UHE ALTAMIRA UHE BELO MONTE UHE KARARAO Source: Eletrobras [ Hydroelectric Inventory of the Xingu River Basin - October 2007 ] Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 19

20 AMAZON HYDRO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING: THE CASE OF THEBELOMONTEHYDROPROJECT Capacity = 11,233 11,000 MW Reservoir = 1, km 22 Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 20

21 AMAZON HYDRO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING: NEW CONSTRUCTION SCHEME Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 21

22 TECHNOLOGY CHOICE: BEST FIT FOR THE RIGHT GOALS TECHNOLOGY CHOICE Hydro plants Best fit technologies AlternativeR enewables Oil offshore E&P Bioenergy from sugarcane Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 22

23 BIOMASS FROM SUGARCANE IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE Sugarcane has a high energetic content 153 kg sugars and ethanol 608 x 10 3 kcal 35% 276 kg bagasse (50% humidity) 598 x 10 3 kcal 35% 1 ton sugar cane 1,718 x 10 3 kcal 165 kg cuts & leaves (15% humidity) 512 x 10 3 kcal 30% 1 crude oil barrel 1,386 x 10 3 kcal 1 ton sugar cane = 1.2 crude oil barrel Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 23

24 BIOMASS IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE Brazil has a huge bioenergy potential (biofuel and bioelectricity) Favorable geographic and natural conditions land availability for agriculture soil characteristics climate conditions (sun, rain, etc.) Technology developed ethanol cogeneration from bagasse other uses Low production cost Sources: Henniges, O.;Zeddies, J.: Fuel Ethanol Production in the USA and Germany a cost comparison, F.O. Lichts World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol 1, nº 11, 11/02/2003. Country/Region Ethanol Production Cost (US$/liter) Brazil United States European Union Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 24

25 TECHNOLOGY IS RELEVANT FOR BIOENERGY STRATEGY Because technology provides Managerial agricultural practices Sustainable crops Plant variety selection Maintenance of disease-free crops and biomass Efficient harvesting transport and storage Control of the plant's maturity and crop's harvest period Minimization of losses Efficient industrial converting process Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 25

26 SUGAR CANE PRODUCTIVITY(t/ha) Source: EPE based on data from MAPA and on PDE 2019 Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 26

27 LAND OCCUPATION INBRAZIL 10 6 ha Amazon Forest and Protected Areas 405 Cities, lakes and roads 20 2,4% 4,5% Production areas ,9% Pasture 220 Agriculture 72 47,6% 45,6% 7,3% Cultivated forest 5 0,5% Available areas 91 10,7% Other uses 38 BRAZIL 851 Source: MAPA, 2006 (Plano Nacional de Agroenergia Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 27

28 BRAZIL. LIGHT VEHICLES SALES 100% 75% 50% 25% Flex-fuel E-100 Gasoline 0% Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 28

29 BRAZILIAN LIGHT VEHICLES FLEET EVOLUTION Gasoline Ethanol Flex fuel 40 icles Million light vehi % % Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 29

30 ETHANOLPRODUCTION(billionlitres) Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 30

31 TECHNOLOGY CHOICE: BEST FIT FOR THE RIGHT GOALS TECHNOLOGY CHOICE Hydro plants Best fit technologies AlternativeR enewables Oil offshore E&P Bioenergy from sugarcane Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 31

32 10-YEARENERGYEXPANSIONPLAN, Renewable sources (wind power, bioelectricity, small hydro plants) Installed capacity, MW Added capacity, MW Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 32

33 SUGAR CANE COGENERATION POTENTIAL 20 GW 17, , Source: EPE (PDE 2019) In ten years, estimated cogeneration potential from sugarcane will be about 90 TWh/yr (18% of current Brazilian power supply) Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 33

34 COMPLEMENTARITY BETWEEN HYDRO GENERATION AND BIOELECTRICITY GWme ed Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Sugar-cane biomass Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Hydro generation Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 34

35 BRAZILIAN WIND POWER POTENTIAL GW (50m) higher potential Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 35

36 BRAZILIAN WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY MW Sources: : Atlas de Energia Elétrica, 2ª ed.. Brasília: ANEEL, : World Wind Energy Report Bonn, Germany: WWEA, : ANEEL, 2010 (website) : Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia, EPE, ,36 68 MW 3,173.7 MW MW MW MW Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 36

37 p.u COMPLEMENTARITY BETWEEN HYDRO AND 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 WIND GENERATION Wind annual cycle Sazonalidade da geração eólica 0,2 Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov 2,2 Dez 2,0.. u p 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 CE RN BA RS Wind and water cycles are negatively correlated in the whole country but South Water annual cycle Vazões naturais afluentes Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 37 ITÁ TUC PCO PAF

38 THE NEW ENERGY AUCTIONS 2005-JULY/2010 THE SHARE OF THE ALTERNATIVE RENEWABLE SOURCES LNG 1,698 MW; 4% COAL 1,760 MW ; 4% DIESEL 617 MW; 2% GAS PROCESS 490 MW; 1% NATURAL GAS 508 MW ; 1% WIND 1,805 MW ; 4% OIL 7,502 MW; 18% % Total Supply [ 41,458 MW ] ALTERNATIVE RENEWABLES CONTRACTED MW [ 14% ] BIOMASS 3,477 MW; 9% SMALL HYDRO 362 MW; 1% HYDRO 23,240 MW; 56% Source: EPE Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 38

39 NATIONAL POWER CAPACITY EXPANSION Contracted Expansion MW Planned Expansion ,145 MW 22,337 MW FONTES ALTERNATIVAS Alternative Renewable URÂNIO Uranium 1405 FONTES Fossil Fuel FÓSSEIS HIDRO Hydro % 2.2% 19.2% 55.5% Source: EPE (PDE 2019) Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 39

40 TECHNOLOGY CHOICE: BEST FIT FOR THE RIGHT GOALS TECHNOLOGY CHOICE Hydro plants Best fit technologies AlternativeR enewables Oil offshore E&P Bioenergy from sugarcane Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 40

41 EVOLUTION OFBRAZILIANOILRESERVES Before Petrobras Onshore E&P Offshore E&P shallow water Offshore E&P deep water (< 300 m) (> 300 m) Billion boe Source: EPE based on data from Petrobras Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 41

42 OIL& GASEXPLORATION ANDPRODUCTION: THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY 124m 293m 492m 781m 1.709m 1.853m 1.886m 2.172m water depth Enchova Piraúna Marlim Marimbá Marlim Sul Roncador drilling depth Tupi Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 42

43 BRAZILIAN CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL FORECASTS, DETACHING THE PRE-SALT RESOURCES CONTRIBUTION million ba arrels per day EXTRA PRE-SALT PRE-SALT Source: EPE (PDE 2019)

44 OIL PRODUCTION AND DEMAND FORECAST INBRAZIL bbl/day MILHÕES DE BARRIS/DIA EXCEDENTE SURPLUS DEMANDA PRODUCTION DEMAND Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference Source: EPE (PDE 2019) ANO year In ten years: Production can be higher than 5 million bbl per day Surplus can be higher than 2 million bbl per day

45 BRAZILIANOILBALANCE TOWARDS SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND FURTHER 10 3 bblper day star-up of Tupi production (Santos basin, pre-salt) world oil crisis Albacora (1984) and Marlim (1985) discoveries st phase of Campos basin production (1980) start-up of Roncador production (1999) start-up of Jubarte production (2007) 1 st phase of pre-salt Source: Based on data from Petrobras Mauricio Tolmasquim, 33rd IAEE Intl Conference. The Rio 2010 Conference 45

46 Thank you very much! EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA - EPE < Av. Rio Branco, 1 11 o andar Rio de Janeiro RJ Tel.: + 55 (21) Fax: + 55 (21)