Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Risks, Opportunities and Tough Choices. Danielle Kreeger Science Director

Transcription

1 Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Risks, Opportunities and Tough Choices Danielle Kreeger Science Director

2 The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary Non-Profit Organization, Established 1996 One of 28 EPA National Estuary Programs Tri-state, multi-region NEP Coordination, Outreach, Education, Restoration and Science Advancement Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), multisector Along the Christina River Wilmington, DE

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4 Science & Management Committees Water Quality Advisory Committee Monitoring Advisory Committee Climate Work Group Fish & Wildlife Cooperative Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Fish Consumption Task Force *Prospective Regional Restoration Workgroup Benthic Inventory Workgroup STAC DE Estuary Wetland Work Group Toxics Advisory Committee Shellfish Stock Assessment Workgroup Atlantic Coast Fish Habitat Partnership*

5 Climate Ready Pilot Adaptation Planning Case Studies ID Vulnerabilities Loss of Nature s Benefits Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish Adaptation Options Recommendations Drinking Water DK 5

6 Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary 1. Likely Physical Changes Temp Salinity Sea Level Rise Storms 2. Example Effects on Key Resources Water Wetlands Fish & Wildlife DK 6

7 Climate Combined Impacts Vulnerability on Drinking and Confidence Water Levels Supply Prototype flooding sea level rise disruptions to aquatic ecosystems storm surge lightening and electrical disturbances increased number and intensity of wild fires increased frequency of short-term drought decreased groundwater levels decreased river discharge and stream flow changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover extreme flooding increased groundwater levels 20 increased runoff increased river discharge and stream flow 0 Erosion of Infrastructure Overflowing Reservoir Capacity Examples Decreased Reservoir Supply Power Outages

8 Relative Cost/Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Options Prototype flooding sea level rise disruptions to aquatic ecosystems storm surge Drinking Water Tough Questions How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary? Will more reservoirs be needed, which have their own issues? Where should infrastructure be protected from SLR versus strategic retreat? lightening and electrical disturbances increased number and intensity of wild fires increased frequency of short-term drought decreased groundwater levels decreased river discharge and stream flow changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover extreme flooding 0 Campaign to Retrofit old Pipes New Salt Resistance Infrastructure Create designated flood zones Stream Buffers Controlled Burns increased groundwater levels Examples

9 Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait of System Near Contiguous Band Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes Nature s Benefits Flood Protection Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Natural Areas Carbon Sequestration

10 Wetland Benefits (Ecosystem Services) Milenium Ecosystem Assessment 1º Service Provisioning Regulating Cultural/ Spiritual Human Well Being Supporting 2º Service 3º Service 4º Service Food Genetic Materials Biochemical Products Fiber and Fuel Sequestration Sediment Stabilization Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/ Flood Protection Gas Regulation Health Lives Livelihoods Fisheries Support Algae and invertebrate production Phragmites control research Research in Antifungal Agents Cellulose stock Carbon Erosion control Protect Property Values and infrastructure Carbon Sequestration Oxygen production Health Carbon Caps, mitigation Meet TMDLs for sediment Water Quality Sequestration, Filtering TMDLs: Nutrients, Health Pollutants Recreation Bird watching, hunting, boating Spiritual and Inspirational Native American Uses University reasearch & school Health Educational projects/trips Landscape pictures, paintings, Aesthetic Value open space Habitat Wildlife, shellfish, insects Biodiversity Maintain Plant Communities Production Primary Production Water Cycling/Hydrologic RegimeHealth Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Maintain trophic cycles, soil Processes building

11 Ecosystem Response Ecosystem Response Are Coastal Wetlands Crossing a Tipping Point? Example Critical thresholds can be breached even if conditions change gradually Smooth Response Abrupt Response Unlikely Likely Threshold Extent of Climate Change Extent of Climate Change Slide adapted from Carlos Duarte DK 11

12 Tidal Wetlands Long-standing Concerns Degradation Conversion and Loss Growing Concerns Sea Level & Salinity Rise Storms Sediment budget Living Shorelines 2008 DK 12

13 Summer, 2006 Angola Neck Rehoboth Bay, DE Sudden Wetland Dieback Marsh Browning Severely Stressed 35% Minimally or Not Stressed 17% Moderately Stressed 48% Slide from Chris Bason and Amy Jacobs

14 Changes in Wetland Function Natural versus Restored Reference Wetland Condition Benefits (functions) Existing Wetlands Restored Wetlands time Slide adapted from Amy Jacobs (DNREC)

15 Tidal Wetland Vulnerability? Freshwater Tidal Marshes Salinity Rise Causes Conversion to Brackish Barriers to Landward Migration Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting Salt Marshes Sea Level Rise, Subsidence and Sediment Deficits Lead to Drowning Storms and Wind Wave Erosion Barriers to Landward Migration Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives

16 Options? Living Shorelines

17 Elevation Increase % Delaware Estuary Living Shorelines Log Double Log Shellbag + Log Treatment Control

18 Tidal Wetlands Adaptation Planning Goal: Maximize long-term ecosystem health and resiliency Wetland Tough Choices Where will wetlands will be converted to open water? Where can we save them? Where is strategic retreat the best option? DK 18

19 Bivalves of the Delaware 11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels Corbicula fluminea Elliptio complanata Rangia cuneata Mya arenaria Geukensia demissa Mytilus edulis Ensis directus Crassostrea virginica Mercenaria DRBC mercenaria DK 19

20 Shifts in Species Ranges of Freshwater Mussels Patchy, Impaired Rare Extirpated Elliptio complanata Strophitus undulatus Alasmidonta heterodon State Conservation Status Scientific Name Scientific Name DE NJ PA ALASMIDONTA HETERODON DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL Endangered Endangered Critically Imperiled ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA TRIANGLE FLOATER Extirpated? Threatened Vulnerable ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA BROOK FLOATER Endangered Endangered Imperiled ANODONTA IMPLICATA ALEWIFE FLOATER Extremely Rare no data Extirpated? ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA EASTERN ELLIPTIO common common Secure LAMPSILIS CARIOSA YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Vulnerable LAMPSILIS RADIATA EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Imperiled LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS GREEN FLOATER no data Endangered Imperiled LEPTODEA OCHRACEA TIDEWATER MUCKET Endangered Threatened Extirpated? LIGUMIA NASUTA EASTERN PONDMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Critically Imperiled MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA EASTERN PEARLSHELL no data no data Imperiled PYGANODON CATARACTA EASTERN FLOATER no data no data Vulnerable STROPHITUS UNDULATUS SQUAWFOOT Extremely Rare Species of Concern Apparently Secure

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22 Figure from Cummings and Mayer (1992). Freshwater Mussel Larvae Require Fish Hosts Larvae are brooded in the ctenidia Most mussels depend on particular fish species

23 Shifts in Species Ranges of Freshwater Mussels Patchy, Impaired Rare Extirpated Elliptio complanata Strophitus undulatus Alasmidonta heterodon State Conservation Status Scientific Name Scientific Name DE NJ PA ALASMIDONTA HETERODON DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL Endangered Endangered Critically Imperiled ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA TRIANGLE FLOATER Extirpated? Threatened Vulnerable ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA BROOK FLOATER Endangered Endangered Imperiled ANODONTA IMPLICATA ALEWIFE FLOATER Extremely Rare no data Extirpated? ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA EASTERN ELLIPTIO common common Secure LAMPSILIS CARIOSA YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Vulnerable LAMPSILIS RADIATA EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Imperiled LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS GREEN FLOATER no data Endangered Imperiled LEPTODEA OCHRACEA TIDEWATER MUCKET Endangered Threatened Extirpated? LIGUMIA NASUTA EASTERN PONDMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Critically Imperiled MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA EASTERN PEARLSHELL no data no data Imperiled PYGANODON CATARACTA EASTERN FLOATER no data no data Vulnerable STROPHITUS UNDULATUS SQUAWFOOT Extremely Rare Species of Concern Apparently Secure

24 Oyster Disease and Salinity Salt Line Location From Rutgers HSRL From DRBC

25 Number per Bushel Oyster Management Can they maintain (or be maintained) until they might see more optimal conditions? DK No Help 1758 Longer With Help Growing Season Options? Shellplanting 2 Recruitment Events Intertidal Niche Expansion? Point of No Return Year Oyster Spat Mean Oyster Mean Spat Today Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory

26 Brandywine River, PA PA Elliptio complanata Delaware Estuary Marshes Geukensia demissa Delaware Bay Oysters Crassostrea virginica DK 26

27 Bivalve Vulnerability? Oyster Reefs Salinity Driven Disease Epizootics Others: Food, ph Salt marsh Mussel Beds Loss and Degradation of Wetland Habitat Others: Food, PH Freshwater Mussel Beds Range Shifts with No Dispersal Habitat Degradation (T, salinity, ph, fish hosts)

28 Nature s Benefits Bivalve Shellfish are Ecosystem Engineers CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project DK 28

29 Water Filtration Benefits Start No mussels 8 adult mussels Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech DK 29

30 Water Filtration Benefits Later No mussels 8 adult mussels Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech DK 30

31 Population-Level Water Filtration Water Benefits Processing Billions of Liters per Hour Elliptio complanata Geukensia demissa Crassostrea virginica

32 Nature s Benefits (Natural Capital) Shellfish Tough Decisions Livelihoods Which species and associated benefits can be Lives sustained? Which should we invest in? (since funding will always be limited) Health Livelihoods Health

33 Climate Change in a Complex Landscape DK 33 The Working River 4th largest US urban center world s largest freshwater port 70% of east coast oil past and present industrial center The Living Estuary Water fowl, finfish, shellfish Horseshoe crab population Extensive tidal marshes

34 Climate & Other Changes Together DK 34 Marcellus Shale Ecological Flows Dredging Withdrawals Added Complexity Wind Farms Land Use Change Development Emerging Pollutants Spills, NRDA

35 Many Other Issues Timing of Shorebird Migration and Horseshoe Crab Spawning Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network

36 Number per Bushel Principle: Restore for the Future Forecast future sustainable states (winners and losers) Smart restoration = climate adaptation Shift policy and management paradigms DK No Help With Help Point of No Return Year Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory Oyster Spat Mean Oyster Mean Spat Principle: Maximize Bang for the Buck Today 2030

37 Next Steps? 1. Science Strengthen adaptation plan with more rigorous monitoring and predictive modeling for likely consequences 2. Local Relevance Develop high resolution geospatial based planning tools that guide local actions, nested within a watershed-basis 3. Nature s Benefits Develop and use decision tools with bang for the buck estimates of environmental outcomes for various adaptation tactics 4. Collaboration Implement a coordinated strategy for advancing science, policy and on-the-ground actions

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