IEA data collection on RES

Transcription

1 IEA data collection on RES Samantha Ölz Renewable Energy Unit Workshop on Data Gathering on Renewable Energies for New Member States and Candidate Countries Scientific Technical Reference System on Renewable Energy and Energy End-Use Efficiency Cavtat-Dubrovnik, November 2006 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Presentation outline IEA statistics: techno-physical data RES Policies and Measures RD&D expenditures IEA Implementing Agreements What the future holds

2 Energy Commodities: Non-Renewables vs. Renewables Primary Secondary Combustible Non Renewables Renewables Nuclear Heat and Non- Thermal Electricity Coals Crude Oil NGL s Natural Gas Oil Shale Wastes Biomass Petroleum Products, Manufactured Solid Fuels Liquids and Gases Any Fuels Derived from Renewable Sources Heat and Electricity Renewables and Wastes Questionnaire Electricity production Electricity and Heat questionnaire Table 1 Heat production Table 1 Gross Electricity and Heat Production Table 4 Technical Characteristics of of the the Installations at at the the end of of the the year Capacity Electricity and Heat questionnaire Table 7a Natural Gas questionnaire Table 1 Biogases Table 2 Supply, Transformation and Energy Sectors = Transformation + Energy + Distribution Losses + Final Energy Consumption Liquid biofuels Renewables as binding agents Oil Oil questionnaire Table 1 Coal questionnaire Table 1 Table 3 Energy end use Final Energy Consumption Table 5 Inputs to to Autoproducers Table 6 Production of of Wood // Wood Waste // Other Solid Waste Electricity and Heat questionnaire Table 6c

3 Fuel Shares of World Total Primary Energy Supply, 2004 Gas 20.9% Nuclear 6.5% Other 0.5% Hydro 2.2% Tide, % Wind 0.064% Solar 0.039% Oil 34.3% Renewables 13.1% Geothermal 0.414% Non-Renew. Wast e 0.2% Coal 25.1% Renewable Combustibles and Waste 10.4 % Fuel Shares of World Electricity Generation, 2004 Gas 19.6% Non-Renew. Waste 0.3% Nuclear 15.7% Other** 0.8% Oil 6.7% Renew ables 17.9% Hydro 16.1% Coal 39.8% Renew able Combustible s and Waste 1.0% ** Other: Geothermal, Wind, Solar, Tide

4 World renewable energy consumption by sector, 2004 Worldwide, 22% of RES use is for electricity generation In OECD countries it accounts for more than 50% Residential, Commercial and Public Sectors 57.9% Other Sectors 3.3% Industry Sector 11.3% Other Transformation and Energy Sectors 5.6% Electricity Plants 21.9% Annual Growth of Global Renewables Supply, 1971 to 2004 Annual Growth of Renewables Supply from 1971 to % annual growth rate 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 48.1% 28.1% 7.5% 0.3% Geothermal Solar Wind Tide, other 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 2.1% 8.2% 0% TPES Renew ables CRW Hydro Other**

5 Regional shares % 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% Non-OECD Europe OECD 14.6% Hydro Non-OECD Europe 2.0% 0.6% 8.8% 26.0% 0.6% 1.4% Non-OECD Europe 33.0% 7.6% 24.2% 12.6% 6.8% OECD 45.1% 3.5% 1.8% OECD 66.1% Combustible Renewables and Waste 21.0% 3.1% Others (or New ) OECD Africa Latin America Non-OECD Asia China Former USSR Non-OECD Europe Middle East Renewables Contribution to TPES in EU-10 & Candidate Countries TPES (MTOE) MTOE MTOE 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania FYR of Macedonia Malta Other RES Poland Romania Serbia and Montenegro Slovak Republic Slovenia Turkey

6 Which RE technologies? TPES (MTOE) MTOE MTOE 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania FYR of Macedonia Hydro Geothermal, Solar, Wind, Tide CRW Malta Poland Romania Serbia and Montenegro Slovak Republic Slovenia Turkey IEA JREC Renewables Database

7 Example: Turkey Policy Chronology RD&D Investment Incentives Tax Measures Incentive Tariffs Voluntary Programs Obligations Tradable Certificates DK FI DE BE CA NZ IE AT AU PT FR LU SG HU GH CK IT GR KP TR PY JP ZA NL NO ES SE CH GB US DK FR IN IT TR DE FI HU AT NL CN AU CA NO SG BR NZ ES IE US KP GR BE CZ SE UG LT CK GB CH JP EE LU NP PH CY PE PT US FR IE LU GR BE AT SG CA DK CZ KP AU HU PH TR IT SE NL FI ES CN MX DE GB LT NO GH PT US ES DK PT GB DE IT LU AT BE FR SE FI CZ HU CA NL CN CH GR IE EE NO KP IL LT IL CH US PT DE AU CA FR JP LU BR PH ML IT LV CY ZA PL AR CH DK AT AU BR NL IT HU FR CA MX FI BE ES IE DE CZ PY NZ NO GR PE SE JP GB KP NP LU GH PH NL IT AU AT BE DK CZ FI JP SE HU KP NO GB BR Introduction date of policy

8 Measures Today Category Policy Actions including Laws Number of Measures/Actions 185 % of Total 29 Information Financial/Economic Regulatory/Administrative Voluntary RD&D Targets Total countries reporting Policy analysis Cost-effectiveness of various types of policies at various levels of market growth; Investment towards mainstream; Scenarios for renewables: implications for fossil fuel demand and reduced CO 2 emissions; and Energy security implications Final report: Trends in Global Renewable Energy Markets and Policies Publication: 1 st semester 2008

9 Renewable RD&D budgets, IEA Renewable RD&D Budgets Small Hydropower (<10 M W) 1200 B io mass 1000 Solar Thermal- Electric 800 Large Hydropower (>10 M W) Million USD Ocean Solar Photovoltaics Geothermal Wind Solar Heating & Cooling Average annual renewable RD&D budgets, IEA % Million USD Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States Solar Heating & Cooling Solar Photovoltaic Photo-Electric Solar Thermal-Electric Wind Ocean Biomass Geothermal Large Hydro (>10 MW) Small Hydro (<10 MW)

10 RD&D priorities - key messages Renewables are one important means to improve energy security and to mitigate CO 2 emissions. RD&D leads to cost reduction and makes renewables competitive. Market deployment policies are key for the realization of renewable energy potentials. Strategies need to be developed further since most renewables have not reached their potential. IEA Technology Collaboration Programme (Implementing Agreements) 9 focusing on renewables out of 41 current Agreements (ImpAgs) Over 100 tasks Nearly 500 participating institutions Average 12 countries per Agreement USD million spent each year under the collaborative programme Non-IEA Member countries and industries can and do participate

11 IEA Network for Technology RD&D and Deployment Renewable Energy Working Party (REWP) oversees ImpAgs on Renewables: Bioenergy Hydropower Geothermal Photovoltaic Solar Heating and Cooling SolarPACES Ocean Energy Wind Energy Renewable Energy Technology Deployment New ImpAg data on RES Annual reports and task publications Joint ImpAG IEA Secretariat workshops Techno-physical data Socio-economic data: market developments

12 Future possible pathways IEA projections World Energy Outlook: to 2030 Energy Technology Perspectives: to 2050 Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand Other renewables Nuclear Biomass Gas Mtoe Coal Oil Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

13 Reference Scenario: Energy-Related CO 2 emissions by Region Gigatonnes of CO Rest of non-oecd China United States Rest of OECD China overtakes the US as the world s biggest emitter before 2010, though its per capita emissions reach just 60% of those of the OECD in 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario Examines the effects of policies presently under consideration by governments, aimed at encouraging energy efficiency and the uptake of non-fossil fuel energy technologies Objective: to reduce energy demand, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions; to increase energy security through geographic and fuel-supply diversity

14 Alternative Policy Scenario: Global Fuel Shares in Electricity Generation 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Reference Scenario 2015 Alternative Policy Scenario 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Wind Other Over a quarter of global electricity comes from renewable energy sources in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario: Cumulative Power-Sector Investment by Region, Brazil Middle East Other Latin America Africa Rest of developing Asia India China Transition economies OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America Total developing countries = 57% of world total Transition economies = 5% of world total Total OECD = 38% of world total billion dollars (2005) Power generation Transmission Distribution Most power-infrastructure investment goes to developing countries, with China alone investing $3 trillion

15 The Alternative Policy Scenario: Electricity-Supply Investment, % billion dollars (2005) % -35% % Nuclear power generation Renewables-based generation Fossil-based generation Transmission and distribution Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario Electricity-supply investment are $2.1 trillion lower than in RS, but renewables and nuclear investment are higher Alternative Policy Scenario: Capital Costs of Renewables-Based Technologies Biowaste Solar photovoltaic Tide and wave Medium-scale CHP plant Solar thermal Geothermal Wind offshore Wind onshore Co-firing dollars (2005) per kw The capital costs of renewables fall over time, with wind power the most competitive for new plant

16 Alternative Policy Scenario: Shares of non-hydro Renewable Energy in Power Generation by Region Transition economies India China Brazil OECD Pacific Africa World OECD North America Other developing Asia OECD Europe 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Most of the growth in non-hydro renewables use occurs in OECD Europe, where incentives are the strongest Energy Technology Perspectives Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Our current energy path is unsustainable Five Accelerated Technology Scenarios (ACT) A portfolio of current and emerging technologies can enhance energy security and avert the trend of increasing CO 2 emissions. Much can be done even if certain key technologies would not deliver but a CO 2 reduction incentive is necessary. A sustainable energy future is achievable! INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE

17 Mt CO 2 Global CO 2 Emissions Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios +137% ACT Scenarios Other Buildings Transport % +21% +27% Industry Transformation % Power Generation Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 Map No CCS Low Efficiency TECH Plus 2050 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE Global Electricity Generation by Fuel 100% 80% 4% 9% 60% TWh 40% 20% 0% 2003 Baseline 2050 ACT Map TECH Plus 2050 Coal Coal-CCS Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE

18 8 000 World Liquid Fuel Supply by Scenario Mtoe Hydrogen Biofuels Synfuels Oil Baseline 2030 (WEO 2005) INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 ACT Low Efficiency 2050 TECH Plus 2050 Primary oil demand is below 2030 baseline level and returns to today s level in TECH Plus AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE IEA Renewable Energy Publications

19 Contacts IEA Technology Agreements: sp Samantha Ölz: