Electricity well below 2 degrees: from challenges to opportunities

Transcription

1 Electricity well below 2 degrees: from challenges to opportunities Laszlo Varro, Chief Economist Grantham Research Institute, London, 26 July 2017 IEA

2 On the journey towards well below 2... but there s a tough climb still ahead We made it to the base camp...

3 Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace? Average capacity additions in different periods in the B2DS Last year Last Decade GW per year Fossil CCS (Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables This decade the slowdown of nuclear and hydro has largely compensated the acceleration of wind and solar

4 Can we change the landscape of transport? Vehicle sales and technology shares under different scenarios B2DS stock of LDVs Million vehicles Fuel cell Battery electric Plug-in electric Hybrids CNG/LPG Diesel ICE Gasoline ICE A well below 2 path has 500 million less cars due to smart transport systems and accelerated electrification

5 Enhanced buildings efficiency with high electrification 2014 (123 EJ) Energy use in the buildings sector under different scenarios B2DS 2060 (112 EJ) 123 EJ Electricity 112 EJ Electricity 31% 61% Electricity Fossil fuels Traditional biomass Renewables Other Electricity Efficiency technologies can provide the same level of comfort while reducing energy demand despite doubling floor area Buildings electrification can also support renewables integration

6 Moving below 2: the challenge of industry and heavy transport Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS 40 Agriculture Buildings GtCO Industry Transport Power Other transformation DS Other transformation (negative) 2DS Industry and transport account nearly all remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050.

7 Heavy duty transport: no easy routes Overhead lines are a mature technology than needs policy driven rollout whereas fuels cells still need innovation and R&D but less infrastructure

8 Translating the climate challenge into industrial terms Global direct industrial CO 2 emissions 12 Other industries GtCO Pulp and paper Aluminium Chemicals and petrochemicals Cement Iron and steel RTS total B2DS total Significant transformations would be needed in all industrial sectors to achieve a 75% reduction of direct CO 2 emissions by 2060 compared to current levels

9 Material efficiency opens opportunities for energy savings 1 = Mt production in ,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 Global materials production growth , showing shares of raw material inputs in 2060 Secondary Primary Clinker 0,5 0,0 RTS 2060 B2DS 2060 RTS 2060 B2DS 2060 RTS 2060 B2DS 2060 RTS 2060 B2DS 2060 RTS 2060 Pulp Aluminium Plastics Crude steel Cement B2DS 2060 Cement additives Wider implementation of material efficiency strategies leads to a reduced demand of materials, as well as to increased shares of secondary routes of production in the B2DS

10 Switching to lower-carbon fuels: every tonne of CO 2 counts in a B2DS world Global crude steel and cement energy mix and direct CO 2 intensity 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 1,6 1,2 0,8 0,4 t direct CO₂/t product Biomass, waste and other renewables Imported heat Electricity Gas Oil 0% 2014 RTS 2060 B2DS RTS 2060 B2DS ,0 Coal Cement Crude steel The energy mix of fossil fuel-reliant sectors get significantly transformed in the B2DS

11 How can the industrial low-carbon transition be realised? Global direct industrial CO 2 emissions 12 Material efficiency GtCO Fuel and feedstock switching Energy efficiency and BAT deployment Innovative processes and CCS RTS total B2DS total A number of strategies contribute to industrial emissions reductions there is no silver bullet

12 Recent progress with CCS

13 Exploring sustainable innovation in industry Cement based on magnesium oxides from magnesium silicates - Could enable net negative CO 2 emissions by circumventing carbon-based raw materials and absorbing CO 2 while curing. - Research needed to prove feasibility. Iron production through molten oxide electrolysis - Carbon-free process when coupled with renewable electricity - Technology development phase. Power-to-gas fuels for high temperature heat - Displacing fossil fuels in industrial processes can be achieved by producing hydrogen fuel from low-carbon electricity, but hydrogen storage or stablisation (by conversion to methane) need to be solved - Electrolysis is on track, but pilot plants needed for hydrogen technologies Audi