Power Generation: A Continued Role for Coal?

Transcription

1 Power Generation: A Continued Role for Coal? Keith Burnard Head, Energy Supply Technology Unit International Energy Agency Clean Coal Day Tokyo, Japan 8-9 September 2015

2 Founded in 1974 as an autonomous agency of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 29 Member Countries Asia Pacific: Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea and New Zealand North America: United States, Canada Europe: Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA Chile is in the process of accession to become a member of the IEA Headquarters: Paris Decision making Body: Governing Board Consists of member country representatives Under the Governing Board, several committees are focusing on each area Secretariat: The International Energy Agency Staff of around 230, mainly energy experts and statisticians from its member countries

3 IEA 3 Es Energy Security Promote diversity, efficiency and flexibility within the energy sectors of the IEA member countries. Remain prepared collectively to respond to energy emergencies. Expand international cooperation with all global players in the energy markets. Environmental Protection Enhance awareness of options for addressing the climate change challenge. Promote greenhouse gas emission abatement, through enhanced energy efficiency and the use of cleaner fossil fuels. Develop more environmentally acceptable energy options. Economic Growth Ensure the stable supply of energy to IEA member countries and promote free markets in order to foster economic growth.

4 Coal is abundant and widely available Global hard coal reserves: 728 Gt Global lignite reserves: Gt Source: IEA (2013), Resources to Reserves, OECD/IEA With globally recoverable reserves of hard coal and lignite at over 1 trillion tonnes, coal is abundant and, with recoverable reserves in around 75 countries, it is widely available. Sufficient reserves of coal for over 120 years of generation at current consumption rates. 4

5 Coal production Mt OECD Total China World

6 Demand for coal continues to rise EJ World OECD Total China Total final consumption of coal Primary energy demand mix, 2012 Renewables 14% Nuclear 5% Natural gas 21% Oil 32% Coal 28% If current trends continue, coal will surpass oil within the next 5 years.

7 Global coal demand leveling off Global coal demand by key region Mtce World Other India Chinese coal demand plateau China India: : European coal demand 2005: peak US largest coal coal demand peak consumer by 2020 India United States Europe Source: IEA (2014), World Energy Outlook New Policies Scenario: Global coal demand growth slows rapidly due to more stringent environmental policies, underlining the importance of high efficiency plant & CCS to coal s future.

8 Coal is the backbone of electricity 2012 Non OECD Americas 41% Eastern Europe and FSU Other developing Asia Middle East Africa India China Other OECD European Union Other OECD Americas United States 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass and waste Hydro Solar PV STE Wind Other renewables Nuclear Opportunities to decarbonise the electricity mix exist in non OECD countries.

9 Net change in power generation capacity by fuel, Source: IEA (2014), World Energy Outlook New Policies Scenario: Both coal and gas will account for almost one quarter of total global installed capacity by China will still be the main constructor of coal fired plants.

10 Performance drivers air pollution Air pollution emission standards for coal-fired plants in China, EU and the US (mg/m 3 ) Pollutants China EU US SO 2 NOx New Existing New Existing / / / / / /160/640 5 PM New & Existing Mercury New Existing ) 400 for four provinces with high-sulphur coal 2) 500 until end 2015; 200 as from ) 160 for plants built ; 640 for plants built ) 100 for plants built ; 200 for plants built before ) 117 for plants built after 2005; 160 for plants built ; 640 for plants built Source: WRI (2012)

11 Performance drivers climate change China s Intended nationally determined contributions 2030 Target 2012 Energy Mix Carbon intensity trends Non fossil sources to provide 20% of primary energy mix 60% to 65% CO 2 emissions reduction per unit of GDP compared to Target

12 Coal-fired power generation CO 2 intensity World United States China gco 2 /kwh

13 Current power generation efficiency Coal-fired heat and electricity generation efficiency, Percentage Source: OECD (2015), OECD Economic Surveys: Indonesia, OECD OECD countries are still leading the advance of power efficiency.

14 Projections on technology and efficiency Source: IEA (2013), World Energy Outlook New Policies Scenario: In China, the share of generation from supercritical and high efficiency coal capacity rises from around one third to two thirds over , raising average efficiency from 36% to 40%.

15 Average coal fleet efficiencies 60% 50% 40% Sub critical 880 gco 2 /kwh Supercritical 800 gco 2 /kwh Ultra supercritical 740 gco 2 /kwh Advanced ultrasupercritical 670 gco 2 /kwh 30% 20% 10% 0% Fleet efficiency Non OECD OECD 2DS target Japan and Korea have led in the deployment of supercritical (SC) and ultra supercritical (USC) coal fired power plants. Today, SC and USC make up around one third of the Chinese coal power plant fleet.

16 Best practice pulverised coal plants Isogo New Units 1 & 2 Ultra supercritical steam conditions 25 MPa, 600 C/610 C Efficiency: >42% (LHV) Capacity: 2 x 600 MWe units (1200 MWe) Coal: bituminous Emissions: NOx 20 mg/m 3 SO 2 6 mg/m 3 particulates 1 mg/m 3 Ultra supercritical steam conditions 25 MPa, 604 C/612 C Efficiency: >44.7% (LHV) Capacity: 4 x 1000 MWe units (4000 MWe) Coal: bituminous Emissions: NOx 100 mg/m 3 SO mg/m 3 particulates 15 mg/m 3 Huaneng Yuhuan

17 Best practice lignite-fired power plants Ultra supercritical steam conditions 27.5 Mpa, 580 C/600 C Efficiency: >43.2% (LHV) Capacity: 1000 MWeunit Coal: lignite (50 60% moisture) Niederaussem K Sasan UMPP Supercritical steam conditions 24.7 MPa, 535 C/565 C Efficiency: 39 40% (LHV) Capacity: 6 x 660 MWe units (3960 MWe) Coal: lignite ( 40% ash) 17

18 Integrated gasification combined cycle With the latest C class gas turbines, efficiencies of 50% (LHV, net) may be achievable.

19 Best practice IGCC plants Plant began commissioning on syngas in November 2012 GreenGen IGCC Capacity: 250 MW Edwardsport IGCC Plant began commissioning on syngas in June 2013 Capacity: 618 MW 19

20 Retirements in the power sector Power capacity by source, GW Renewables Nuclear Oil Retirements Additions Gas Coal Despite limited demand growth, OECD countries account for one third of capacity additions to compensate for retirements & to decarbonise

21 The challenge of advanced USC Boiler tube/pipe C 700 C/ 30 35MPa C Steam turbine rotor/shaft Boiler Steam turbine ~ Generator Nickel based super alloys Ferrite/Austenitic alloys Nickel-based super-alloys will enable plant components to withstand temperatures to 700ºC and beyond.

22 Carbon capture and storage Average CO 2 intensity factor in 2DS (gco 2 /kwh) Average efficiency in 2DS 33% 34% 37% Efficiency improvement 42% 43% CO 2 abatement by CCS Share of CCS (1=100%) High efficiency acts as one of the preconditions that promote CCS to a considerable scale of deployment.

23 First commercial power plant with capture Boundary Dam 3: launched on 2 October 2014 Source: SaskPower Size: 110 MW Fuel: lignite Capture rate: 90% of CO 2, 100% of SO 2 Capture per annum: 1 million tonnes

24 Coal can continue to have a major role... but only if CO 2 emissions and other environmental concerns are addressed. So, As large point sources of CO 2 emissions, power generation must take the lead in emissions reduction. In the short-to-medium term, efficiency improvements to new and existing plants bring significant benefits. At the same time, ageing, inefficient plant must be retired. Advanced, highly efficient coal-fired plant must be promoted. R,D&D must continue. For deep cuts in CO 2, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has a critical role to play.

25 Thank you