Energy Security & Sustainability for Asia in the 21 st Century

Transcription

1 Energy Security & Sustainability for Asia in the 21 st Century 2012/2/21 Tokyo University Nobuo TANAKA Former Executive Director of the IEA Global Associate of Energy Security and Sustainability, IEEJ OECD/IEA 2011 Primary Energy Demand by Region (World) Reference 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Mtoe AAGR* World 1.8% 1.7% Asia 4.6% 2.6% N. America 0.7% 0.4% *Average annual growth rate IEEJ Outlook bil. toe 7.6 bil. toe Asia N.Amerca OECD Europe Non-OECD Europe World bil. toe bil. toe (1.5-fold increase) Asia bil. toe bil. toe (1.9-fold increase) L. America Middle East Africa Oceania By 2035, primary energy demand of Asia will double from the current level, reflecting high economic growth; 3.9 billion toe(2009) 7.6 billion toe(2035). Non-OECD will represent 90% of incremental growth of global energy demand toward OECD/IEA 2011

2 Figure 3.21 Breakeven costs, budget breakeven and commercially attractive pricesfor current oil production for selected producers, mid-2011 Dollars per barrel UAE Libya Saudi Arabia Algeria Iraq Angola Nigeria Ecuador Iran Russia Venezuala Super majors Budget breakeven Commercially a rac ve Breakeven cost Qatar Kuwait Oil produc on (mb/d) Notes: Only OPEC countries, Russia and the aggregation of the five super majors (BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and Total) are included. The breakeven cost is the realised oil price at which all operating expenses (excluding taxes) and capital costs (including a 10% capital discount rate), are fully recovered. Sources: IEA databases and analysis based on industry sources: APICORP (2011), Deutsche Bank (2011), Credit Suisse (2011), IMF (2011), PFC (2011) and CGES (2011). 3 Asian demand for gas grows much faster. Figure 2.18 bcm Natural gas demand and the share of imports by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2009 and 2035 Imports Domes c produc on IEA WEO United States Japan European Union China India Other Asia Note: Other Asia had net natural gas exports of 56 bcm in China s demand is 97 BCM in 2009, same as Germany, In 2035 it grows to 502 BCM same as Europe as a whole in

3 Harnessing Variable Renewables ppm Scenmario : what we need and where. Figure 6.2 World energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario 2 Gt OECD Non OECD Current Policies Scenario 450 Scenario New Policies Scenario 28% 71% 33% 65% 7Gt 15 Gt IEA WEO Note: There is also some abatement of inter regional (bunker) emissions which, at less than 2% of the difference between scenarios, is not visible in the 2035 shares. Figure 6.4 World energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Gt New Policies Scenario Efficiency Renewables Biofuels Nuclear CCS Abatement % 44% 17% 21% 2% 4% 5% 9% 3% 22% Scenario Total (Gt CO 2 )

4 Low Nuclear Case IEA WEO 2011 Table 12.3 Key projections for nuclear power in the New Policies Scenario and the Low Nuclear Case Low Nuclear Case New Policies Scenario OECD Non OECD World OECD Non OECD World Gross installed capacity (GW) in in Share in electricity generation in % 4% 13% 21% 4% 13% in % 5% 7% 21% 8% 13% Gross capacity under construction (GW)* New additions in (GW)** Retirements in (GW) *At the start of **Includes new plants and uprates, but excludes capacity currently under construction. 7 Second thoughts on nuclear would have farreaching consequences in Security Low Nuclear Case examines impact of nuclear component of future energy supply being cut in half Gives a boost to renewables, but increases import bills, reduces diversity & makes it harder to combat climate change By 2035, compared with the New Policies Scenario: coal demand increases by twice Australia s steam coal exports natural gas demand increases by two thirds Russia s natural gas net exports Renewables power increases by 550TWh = 5 times of RE in Germany power sector CO 2 emissions increase by 6.2% IEA WEO 2011 Biggest implications for countries with limited energy resources that planned to rely on nuclear power 8

5 700 Germany may needs much more Gas to phase out Nuclear by 2022 twh others Renewables nuclear Gas Coal Current Policy 2022 Germany needs to import 16 BCM of gas to achieve electricity mix with 10% demand reduction, no nuclear, 35% renewables and CO2 at the target level 9 Power grid in Europe UK Belgium Netherlands Norway Sweden France Germany Spain Swiss :Generation capacity :maximum powerflow Italy Austria Source: IEA Electricity Information 2010 Indicative value for Net Transfer Capacities (NTC) in Continental Europe 10

6 Power grid in Japan Hydro Gas Coal Generating company Hokkaido Oil Nuclear Power utility company Other In house generation Tohoku 60 hz < Chugoku Kansai Hokuriku Tokyo Kyushu 29GW Okinawa 2GW Shikoku 12GW Chubu 40GW hz Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Electric Power System Council of Japan, The International Energy Agency 11 Energy mix as Energy Security Mix ASEAN 96% 30% 0% IEA 51% 8% 11% EU 27 26% 10% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Self sufficiency =inland production / tpes (2010 estimates) Nuclear is an important option for countries with limited indigenous energy resources (low energy sustainability). 12

7 Does current IEA system continue to work? 60% IEA stockholding cover of global oil demand 40 % share of world oil demand 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% days of world oil demand cover IEA 90 days of stockholding, share of world demand with China with India with ASEAN Share of non OECD in global oil demand Growing share of non OECD oil demand results in declining global demand cover from IEA oil stocks 13 Figure 8.15 Selected gas field Planned LNG export Norway terminal Neth. Den. Sweden Finland Germany Export to Finland BalticSea Cz. Poland Estonia Rep. Export to Latvia Europe Lithuania St. Petersburg Slov. Rep. Hungary Belarus Romania Mol. Export to Europe South Stream Gas Supply Security and Russian Gas Pipelines IEA WEO 2011 Existing gas pipeline Pipeline planned/under const. Existing LNG export terminal Nord Stream Ukraine Major gas fields and supply infrastructure in Russia Moscow Northern Ligh ts Volga/ Urals Murmansk Barents Sea Shtokman Tyumen Yamal Peninsula South Tambei Bovanenkovo Yamburg Medvezhye Surgut S.Russkoe Zapolyarnoe Urengoy R U S S I A Orenburg Black Krasnoyarsk Sea Volgograd Tomsk Caspian Astrakhan Novosibirsk Kemerovo Georgia Turkey Khvalynskoe Tsentralnoe Kazakhstan Arm. Azer. Caspian Syria Sea China This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status U bof or kisovereignty over any territory covered by this map. Ukhta Timan Pechora Barents Sea Kara Sea Western Siberia Other offshore Arctic Eastern Siberia Chayandin Irkutsk Laptev Sea Mongolia Kovykta Other offshore Arctic East SiberianSea Chukchi Sea Yakutsk Daqing Sakhalin Sea of Okhotsk Sakhalin Island Komsomolsk China Khabarovsk Harbin North Korea Bering Sea Vladivostok Japan 14

8 Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies: Assessing the Drivers and Impacts 15 Connecting MENA and Europe: " Desertec" as Energy for Peace" Source: DESRETEC Foundation 16

9 Existing and proposed ASEAN Power Grid Interconnections 17 Delhi Mumbai Energy for Peace in Asia? A New Vision Demand Leveling (Time Zone & Climate Difference) Stable Supply (through regional interdependence) Fair Electricity Price Bhutan Gobi Desert Chengdu Dacca Bangkok Beijing Hong Kong Seoul Shanghai Taipei Manila Vladivostok Tokyo Phase 3 Asia Super Grid Kuala Lumpur Singapore Total 36,000km Presentation by Mr. Masayoshi SON 18

10 One cannot enhance energy security by risking someone else s. -Energy Security for the 21st Century must be Comprehensive Electricity Supply Security with diversified sources, such as oil, gas, renewables, cleaner coal and safer nuclear, under sustainability constraints. -EU Model of Collective Energy Security be applied to the growing Asia. Enlarge IEA s oil emergency preparedness to Asia and other fuels. Develop Regional Power Grid interconnection & Gas Pipelines including Russia. -Deploy a green growth paradigm by Efficiency, decentralized Renewables, EVs, Smart Grids, Storage, etc. -New technologies help; hydrogen economy, Methane-hydrate, 4G Nuclear power, Super-conductivity grid, CCUS, etc. -Develop unconventional gas resources and infrastructure. -For coal to remain the backbone of power supply, CCS readiness & highly efficient power plants are needed. -Japan s role after Fukushima: Share the lessons learned for safer Nuclear Power deployment in Asia. 19