Air pollution in large cities Bjarne Sivertsen Norwegian Institute for Air Research. Sino-Norwegian cooperation, EXPO 2010

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1 Air pollution in large cities Bjarne Sivertsen Sino-Norwegian cooperation, EXPO 2010

2 城市化 Urbanization 导致人口对空气污染的曝露和健康损害上升 causes increased population exposure and health effects Rise of megacities 中国的城市化目标 China's Low Carbon Eco-city Development Strategy: between 70 and 75 per cent of Chinese will live in cities by 2050

3 Urban development Waste Management Urban transport Air Quality Managm. Energy and sources New technologies Health impact ADB 2001, Urban indicators...

4 企业需要整合的能源和空气质量管理 Integrated energy and air quality management 目前我们同时面临着空气质量和气候变化的挑战 At this stage in time, when we are faced both with climate change and air pollution challenges 我们必须分辨和采用合适的政策和技术能同时作用这两个挑战 we must identify and implement policies and technologies that act on both problem areas 并且发展整合的基于费用效益分析的发展战略 and develop integrated cost-effective strategies

5 Integrated assessment Urban Air Quality Planning + Green house gas reductions CO2 GHG emissions Urban emission inventories SO2, NOx PM, VOC toxics National inventory Energy production, fuel consumtion industrial emissions, traffic, waste burning Reduced CO2 emissions Actions for improved local Air quality Co-benefit Improve local Air Quality + Reduce green house gas emissions Urban transport Energy souces industries

6 空气质量管理软件 Air Quality management software 污染排放 空气质量监测 暴露/损害计量 模型运算 各种控制方案 费用-效益分析 剂量/反 应 最佳方案

7 山西省 以及项目重点执行城市 Shanxi Province, action plan SO2 concentrations, heating season 3个项目执行重点城市: 太原 大同 阳泉 The project included 3 pilot cities: 二氧化硫浓度等值线土 供热季节的平均浓 度 SO2 model results Taiyuan Taiyuan, Datong and Yangquan. 基准年２０００ Base-case 2000 实行全部的减排措施后 目标年２０１５年 2015 w/ full set of control scenarios

8 费用效益分析 Cost benefit analysis 不同针对SO2和TSP的控制方案费用效益分析列表比较 太原 A comparison of cost-benefit of various control options for SO2 in Taiyuan Control option Conc red. Cost benefit ratio µg/m3 negative payback positive payback Centralized heating 52,0 Natural gas utilization 20,0 Clean coal technology 6,2 Desulphurization in power 6,5 Productivity policies 5, Similar analyses for TSP indicate same top two control options

9 A joint ChinaNorwegian project proposal, applying for funding from the Royal Norwegian Government 二氧化碳排放量预测 MEP, PRCEE, Tsinghua/Renmin/Beijing Normal Universities

10 Cooperation project between Hubei Environmental Protection Bureau (EPB) and the (NILU) 荆楚网消息 (湖北日报 记者李新龙 通讯员李飞)昨从省环保厅获悉 湖北 省将与挪威大气研究所合作 建设武汉环境空气灰霾自动监测站 PM2,5 monitoring GIS based planning tool Air Quality management Emissions and models Forecasting and Early Warning Institutional building

11 (Nearly) all rural population still uses COAL or BIOMASS as main source of energy (i.e. cooking and heating) NISP Review Team Health impacts 3476 households Shaanxi, Hubei, Zhejiang Estimated burden of disease in China Indoor smoke from solid fuels Interventions: Stove improvements Fuel changes Coal and biomass combustion Emission of gaseous compounds such as CO, CO2, NOx, SO2, formaldehyde, Acrolein, Benzene, 1,3-Butadiene, Toluene, Styrene and particulate matter containing heavy metals, As, Hg, PAHs, Si, fluorides, OC, EC, (Zhang and Smith, 2007; Environ. Health Perspec. 115, 6, ). Solid Fuel Combustion (>70% of China s households rely on solid fuel (biomass and coal) for their domestic energy) WHO (2007), Indoor Air Pollution

12 Use of coal & biomass Indoor exposure Cleaner fuels Renewable energy Impact on all scales Indoor exposure Ambient air GHG Climate change IPCC

13 Possible actions Structural changes better than end-of-pipe From fossil fuels to renewable Energy efficiency improvements Energy savings Improvement of housing: construction and heating/cooling From individual to public transport From road (and air) to rail Requirements Needs for detailed data, on: Emissions Control options and their costs AP source-receptor and exposureeffects relationships Costly and time consuming tasks Requires skilled expertise

14 Integrated Assessments and Co-controls are needed to support Sustainable Urban Developments.

15 The Norwegian Institute for Air Research Making a difference for the environment Founded in 1969 Independent foundation from 1986 Annual turnover 184 MNOK (24 MEuro) 9% 33 % International project 58 % National projects Basic grant 192 employees 56 scientists with PhD Offices in 4 countries

16 One of the largest Air pollution institutes in Europe Main office at Kjeller, Norway Branch offices in Norway and other countries Undertakes about 400 projects yearly Advanced observatories from pole to pole Several projects in China Clients: EEA (Topic Centre), EU, WHO, WMO, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank, ADB, International Authorities etc.. NILU international observatories: Arctis, Europe, Antarctica NILUs office in Abu Dhabi