Environmental Science & Policy (in press)

Transcription

1 Environmental Science & Policy (in press) Timothy J. Sullivan a, Charles T. Driscoll b, Colin M. Beier c, Dallas Burtraw d, Ivan J. Fernandez e. James N. Galloway f, David A. Gay g, Christine L. Goodale h, Gene E. Likens i, j, Gary M. Lovett i, Shaun A. Watmough k a E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc. b Civil & Environmental Engineering, c Forest and Natural Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry d Resources for the Future e School of Forest Resources & Climate Change Institute f Department of Environmental Sciences g Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene h Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology i Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies j Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology k School of the Environment, Trent University

2 Goals Ø Inform public discourse regarding role of science in resource management amidst a(empts to negate value and relevance of scien4fic data and fact-based analysis in face of par4san opinion and ideology Ø Show decreases in air pollu8on and its effects a:ributable to policy informed by research and monitoring

3 Examples Ø S and N emissions and deposi8on Ø Elimina8on of tetraethyl lead from gasoline Ø Visibility Ø Tropospheric ozone Ø Water acidifica8on Ø Hg bioaccumula8on

4 Example Time Series Trends in Air Pollu8on Levels

5 SO 2 or NO X (million tons yr -1 ) SO 2 NO X Na8onal emissions of oxidized nitrogen (NO x ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) throughout the U.S. from U.S. EPA s Na8onal Emissions Inventory.

6 S or N deposition (kg ha -1 yr -1 ) Wet S Wet N Total S Total N Annual wet deposi8on of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) since 1979 as measured by the Na8onal Atmospheric Deposi8on Program at Hun8ngton Forest, NY and total (wet plus dry) deposi8on es8mated by Schwede and Lear (2014) since 2000 at Big Moose Lake, NY.

7 - Air concentration of Pb (µg m 3 ) National Standard Mean air concentra8on of lead (Pb) measured at eight United States monitoring sites from Data are annual maximum 3-month averages from U.S. EPA ( h:ps://

8 35 Average haze index (deciviews) Haziest 20% of Days - Annual Average Haziest 20% of Days - Glide Path Annual average haze index on the haziest 20% of days at Shining Rock Wilderness, NC, since 1995, plus the glide path of con8nuous improvement needed to meet the Regional Haze Rule requirement of zero human-caused haze by the year Data source: h:ps://webcam.srs.fs.fed.us/graphs/vis/index.php?wilderness=shinin

9 Example Time Series Trends in Air Pollu8on Effects

10 100 Hydrogen ion (µeq l -1 ) Decreasing concentra8ons of hydrogen ion in precipita8on at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH over the period of available data. (Data source: Holmes and Likens 2016)

11 Al i (µmol l -1 ) or ph units SO Al i ANC Water chemistry at Big Moose Lake, NY (data source: Adirondack Lakes Survey Corpora8on [h:p:// Adverse impacts on aqua8c life are generally associated with inorganic aluminum (Al i ) concentra8ons above 2 µm, ph below about 6.0, and acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) below 50 µeq l -1 (U.S. EPA 2009a). Sulfate (SO 4 2- ) is the major driver of effects. or ANC (µeq l -1 ) SO 4 2-

12 Ozone concentration (ppb) National Standard Fourth Highest 8-Hour Average 3- Average Atmospheric ozone concentra8on at Look Rock, Great Smoky Mountains Na8onal Park, TN, expressed as the fourth highest 8-hour annual average and three-year average concentra8on data. Data source: h:ps:// Note that ozone is considered as an effect because it forms in the atmosphere in response to emissions of its precursors nitrogen oxides and vola8le organic

13 Calcium (µmol l -1 ) Decreasing concentra8on of calcium in streamwater at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, reference watershed, in part reflec8ng delayed recovery of the soil from acidifica8on.

14 Economics Ø Air quality improvements from 1970 to 1990 under the Clean Air Act provided $22 trillion in cumula8ve health benefits, with $0.5 trillion in costs (1990 $) Ø In 2011, the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments were es8mated to yield $2 trillion in addi8onal benefits by 2020, with compliance costs equal to $65 billion.

15 Conclusions Ø Pollutant reduc8ons have provided environmental, social, and economic benefits Ø Data from long-term research and monitoring are cri8cal for fact-based decision making Ø If not us, then who?