Utility scale bulk energy storage. Current use in the NEM, and its importance in a future low carbon electricity system

Transcription

1 Utility scale bulk energy storage Current use in the NEM, and its importance in a future low carbon electricity system Dan Manderson MandersonD@pbworld.com October 2016

2 A DIVERSIFIED GLOBAL FIRM

3 AGENDA Defining utility scale bulk energy storage Why talk about this category of storage? What have we currently got in the NEM? New capacity technology options and costs Conclusions

4 DEFINING UTILITY SCALE BULK ENERGY STORAGE Molten Salt Region of interest Source: Energy Storage for Commercial Renewable Integration South Australia Milestone 3 Report: Energy Storage Systems (Executive Summary)

5 WHY BULK ENERGY STORAGE? TYPICAL SUMMER WEEK Utility scale bulk energy storage Optimistic baseload Source: AEMO 100% renewables study modelling outcomes report (Chapter 6 Page 43)

6 WHAT HAVE WE CURRENTLY GOT IN THE NEM? Wivenhoe, 500MW (2 x 250MW) Shoalhaven, 240MW (2 x 80, 2 x 40MW) Tumut3, 600MW (3 x 200MW) Sources: Snowy Hydro Website Sources: Google Maps, CS Energy Wivenhoe Brochure Sources: Roam Pumped Hydro in Australia Study

7 CURRENT USE IN THE NEM Characteristic Wivenhoe Shoalhaven Tumut 3 Charging capacity factor 1.1% 3.3% 0.2% Average station load when pumping 37% 46% 30% Discharging capacity factor 0.5% 3.0% Not separable from Average station output when generating 24.0% 39.0% overall Snowy operations Indicative cycle efficiency under typical operating conditions ~ 45% ~ 72% <68%* Estimate of storage capacity (output) 5GWh 4.7GWh ~15GWh** Duty description Ancillary services / CS Energy Portfolio Management Peaking Not really used *Based on operating optimum number of units, based on plant specifications for Tumut 3 rather than on AEMO data **Based on lower reservoir capacity assuming minimum 40% level for successful return pumping; only 3.3GWh pumping without generating observed in the 3 years of data. Shoalhaven operation week commencing 8 th Jan 2016

8 WHAT ARE OUR OPTIONS FOR MORE CAPACITY? Molten Salt, Integral to concentrating solar thermal (CST) Batteries NaS or Li-Ion More pumped hydro Compressed air

9 MOLTEN SALT (INTEGRAL TO CST) Source: NaNO 3 / KNO 3 blend, o C operating temperature range, dense & high heat capacity fluid Cheap (<$20/MWh), reliable, very high cycle efficiency Inherently tied to the fate of concentrating solar thermal technology

10 BATTERIES 50MW/300MWh NaS battery installation at Buzen substation, Japan ~75% AC cycle efficiency Source: NGK Buzen Substation Project Presentation Planned 20MW/80MWh Tesla Li-Ion project at Mira Loma substation, California 89% AC cycle efficiency Source: Tesla website Powerpack concept illustration and technical specifications

11 MORE PUMPED HYDRO What is the realistic potential in Australia? - NOBODY KNOWS (YET) Genex: Old mine sites ROAM: Use existing large water bodies as one reservoir, create another upper or lower reservoir Melbourne Energy Institute Seawater only; SA and VIC only Andrew Blakers (ANU): Closed cycle sites; Araluen Valley (ACT region) case study Sources: ARENA website Genex update Roam Pumped Hydro in Australia Study Melbourne Energy Institute Report: Opportunities for pumped hydro energy storage in Australia

12 COMPRESSED AIR ENERGY STORAGE (CAES) Compress air to high pressure during low price periods (charging) Store air in a salt cavern Expand through a turbine to generate power during high price periods (discharging) Existing plants use gas firing during; many new concepts are fuel-free 70% cycle efficiency is likely best achievable Source: _plant/compressed_air_energy

13 CAES IN AUSTRALIA What is the realistic potential in Australia? - NOBODY KNOWS (YET) Boree domal salt deposit Source: Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology and Geophysics, Evaporites in Australia, 1980

14 INTEGRAL SOLAR AND STORAGE COSTS Back of the envelope only Only considering solar here: to enable direct comparison with CST because daily cycling is a good application for bulk energy storage CST - $150/MWh PV + NaS batteries - $230/MWh PV + Li NMC batteries - $230/MWh PV + PHS potentially $150/MWh PV + CAES - $180/MWh Generic system sized for 70% capacity factor Assumes $80/MWh PV energy cost Considers capex, opex, cycle efficiency, cycle life 5% discount rate, 25 year life

15 CONCLUSIONS Utility scale bulk energy storage will be a critical element of our future low carbon electricity supply Whilst many expect significant cost reductions in batteries, non-battery energy storage options should not be ignored, particularly for bulk energy storage applications

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