Nuclear Power Today and in the Future

Transcription

1 Nuclear Power Today and in the Future Presented by H.L. Dodds, Ph.D., P.E. IBM Professor of Engineering and Head UT Department To UT Physics and Astronomy Department October 9, 2006

2 Overview of Presentation History of Nuclear Power Development Recent Developments National (U.S. Industry and Government) International Education U.S. Public Opinion Global Climate Change Renewable Energy Energy diversity Concluding Remarks

3 History of Nuclear Power Development Generation I Generation II Early Prototype Reactors Commercial Power Reactors Generation III Advanced LWRs Generation III+ Generation IV - Shippingport - Dresden, Fermi I - Magnox - LWR-PWR, BWR - CANDU - VVER/RBMK - AGR - ABWR - System AP600 - EPR Generation III Evolutionary Designs Offering Improved Economics - AP ACR ESBWR Highly Economical - Enhanced Safety - Minimize Wastes - Proliferation Resistant Gen I Gen II Gen III Gen III+ Gen IV

4 US Nuclear Power Then and Now Parameter 1979 Today Commercial Reactors Electricity Production (kw-hrs) 255 b. 789 b. Ave. Capacity Factor 56.3 % 90.5 % Unplanned Reactor Trips per 7000 Reactor Hours Industrial Safety Accidents per 200,000 hours worked

5 Today ~ 440 nuclear power reactors in 32 different countries producing ~ 20% of the world s electricity 103 power reactors in the U.S. producing ~ 20% of the electricity in U.S U.S. also has ~ 100 naval reactors in operation 5 power reactors in the Tennessee valley producing ~ 30% of electricity in the valley (seven states) Lithuania has 1 reactor producing ~ 90% France has 54 reactors producing ~ 75%

6 U.S. Industry Developments TVA re-start of Browns Ferry Unit 1 is on schedule and within budget (almost equivalent to a new order ~ $1.8 billion) TVA Watts Bar Plant Finishing construction of Unit 2 studied ($20 million study) Unit 1 producing tritium for national defense Power uprates and license renewals in U.S. are equivalent to 26 new 1000 MW plants Least expensive way to add generating capacity Several nuclear utilities seek Early Site Permits (ESPs) and Construction and Operating Licences (COLs) Davis-Besse incident (cavity created inside vessel head)

7 Nuclear Generated Electricity Costs At All-Time Low (cents per kilowatt-hour) Nuclear is the lowest cost generation

8 Industry Performance Is Excellent Capacity Factor (%) % in % in % in % in 2003* 55 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 * Nuclear Energy Institute estimate

9 U.S. Capacity Factors by Fuel Type 2005 Fuel Type Nuclear Coal (Steam Turbine) Gas (Combined Cycle) Gas (Steam Turbine) Oil (Steam Turbine) Hydro Wind Solar Source: Global Energy Decisions / Energy Information Administration Updated: 4/06 Average Capacity Factors (%)

10 Virtually All Nuclear Plants Will Renew Their Licenses 47 Have Not Announced Intention 23 Granted 16 Intend to Renew 17 Under NRC Review License Renewal Status

11 U.S. Government Developments National Energy Policy is pro-nuclear Nuclear Power 2010 Initiative Nuclear Hydrogen Initiative Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative $250 million requested in FY07 budget for GNEP (worldwide expansion of nuclear power while minimizing proliferation risks) One-step licensing process approved Early Site Permit (ESP) Construction and Operating License (COL) U.S. now has comprehensive energy legislation Nuclear power plant security increased since

12 National Energy Legislation Passed New law (July, 2005) supports existing nuclear plants and encourages construction of new nuclear plants Production tax credits and loan guarantees Protection from regulatory delays Price-Anderson Act extended for 20 years $2.7 billion for nuclear energy R&D $1.25 billion for advanced reactor at INL to produce electricity and hydrogen Assistant DOE Secretary for nuclear energy

13 The President and Congress Approved Yucca Mountain

14 Nuclear Power (NP) 2010 Initiative A joint government/industry cost-shared effort to: Identify sites for new nuclear plants Demonstrate new regulatory processes for operation of new nuclear plant designs in U.S. by NUSTART Consortium (Entergy) is considering two existing sites for COL ESBWR at Grand Gulf in MS AP1000 at Bellefonte in AL UNISTAR Consortium (Constellation) is considering two existing sites for an Evolutionary Power Reactor (EPR) Duke Power plans to build two AP1000s in Carolinas (sites not yet determined) 10 consortia considering new plants in U.S.

15 International Developments Finland has ordered a new nuclear plant. Japan has 4 ABWRs operating; planning two more. Taiwan has 2 ABWRs under construction. China plans to build 8-25 new nuclear plants. Europe plans to build 2 new nuclear plants (EPRs). South Africa is developing a Pebble Bed Reactor. Sweden is considering reversing its previous decision to shutdown its nuclear plants. Several prominent environmentalists now support nuclear power (e.g., James Lovelock, Patrick Moore). Germany is planning to shutdown its nuclear plants. They will have to purchase more power from France. Recent German elections may reverse this decision.

16 Global U.S. Leadership in Annual Nuclear Power Production billion kilowatt-hours US France Japan Germany Russia S. Korea UK Source: IAEA - Updated: 08/03

17 Educational Developments Enrollment in nuclear engineering is increasing nationwide Six new nuclear engineering programs U. of South Carolina, South Carolina State, U. of Nevada-Las Vegas, West Point Military Academy, Tuskegee Institute, Idaho State U. (new Ph.D. program) Distance Education is growing World Nuclear University has been created

18 UT Enrollment 250 NE Student Enrollment Grad 119 UG 46 Grad 130 UG 63 Grad 140 UG 59 Grad 157 UG

19 2006 NSPE Salary Survey Aerospace Agricultural Biomedical Chemical Civil Computer Electrical Environmental Industrial Materials Mechanical Nuclear $83,000 $78,700 $80,000 $91,600 $72,000 $90,000 $85,000 $75,000 $68,500 $65,998 $82,691 $109,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 $110,000 Median Annual Income

20 Public Supports Nuclear Energy 80 70% Favor % Oppose 20 May-05 Oct-04 Apr-04 Oct-03 May Source: Bisconti Research Inc. Percent Favor/Oppose

21 Another Public Opinion Survey Survey of ~ 1100 people all across the U.S. who live within 10 miles of a nuclear power plant Survey released October 12, 2005 Margin of error is 3 % 83 % favor nuclear energy 76 % willing to have a new reactor built near them NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) does not apply at existing plant sites because close neighbors have a positive view of nuclear energy

22 Global Mean Surface Temperatures Are Increasing

23 Glaciers Are Retreating Globally In Switzerland In Alaska

24 Worldwide CO 2 emissions U.S. is by far the largest emitter of CO Data

25 The Reality of Renewables Method Needed for 1000 MW Electrical Land Area (square miles)) Photovoltaic 100 km 10% efficiency 40 Wind 3,000 Wind 1 MW ea Biogas 60,000,000 pigs or 800,000,000 chickens 6,200 km 2 of sugar beets 2,400 Bioalcohol 7,400 km 2 of potatoes 2,800 16,100 km 2 of corn 6, ,000 km 2 of wheat 104,000 Bio-oil 24,000 km 2 of rapseed 9,000 Biomass 30,000 km 2 of wood 12,000 Nuclear <1 km 2 1/3

26 We Need Energy Diversity 80,000 New MWs by Fuel Type, ,000 60,000 Other Petroleum Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Natural gas prices have almost tripled in the past three years. Name Plate Capacity MW

27 Concluding Remarks Need energy diversity (fossil, nuclear, & renewables) Global warming appears to be real; correlates well with increased burning of fossil fuels We are messing with our planet Increased use of nuclear power coupled with hydrogen production and use could help alleviate global warming, if it s not too late! Nuclear power is Green Power, both economically and environmentally

28 Thank You! Contact information Phone: UTNE web page: Weekly Colloquium webcast Archived colloquia

29 Extra Slides

30 Definition of Two Main Areas Traditional deals primarily with nuclear power Radiological Engineering deals with applications of radiation in industry and medicine Considerable overlap between the two areas

31 Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems Initiative Develop technologies that achieve safety performance, waste reduction, and proliferation resistance while providing the next-generation nuclear energy system that is economically competitive, reliable, sustainable, and ready for deployment before $ (millions) FY2003 enacted FY2004 E&WD Program Funding

32 Nuclear Hydrogen Initiative Develop new concepts to produce hydrogen using nuclear reactors Conduct laboratory testing of candidate hydrogen production processes Complete design and initiate construction of two hydrogen production pilot plants - (200 kw) high temperature electrolysis plant and (500 kw) thermochemical plant Begin operation of the initial pilot plants Begin system optimization and scaling of thermochemical pilot plant Complete process improvements and scaling of thermochemical pilot plant to MW class Complete designs and start construction of engineering scale hydrogen production systems $ (millions) FY2003 enacted FY2004 E&WD Program Funding The energy from one pound of nuclear fuel could provide the hydrogen equivalent of 250,000 gallons of gasoline without any carbon emissions.

33 Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative Improve the understanding and performance of nuclear fuel and fuel cycles with respect to safety, waste production, proliferation resistance, and economics Selected topics include: - Concepts for material preparation and fuel production - Inherently safe fuel designs and core response - Understanding life-limiting phenomena for high burnup fuels - High-temperature fuel and material performance - Criticality safety and reactor physics data for advanced fuel designs $ (millions) FY2003 enacted FY2004 E&WD Program Funding

34 Emissions Avoided By Nuclear Power Plants SO 2 (million short tons) NO x (million short tons) Carbon (million metric tons of carbon equivalent) nuclear plant ,441.5 emissions avoided 2002 fossil plant NA emissions reduced Source: Environmental Protection Agency