International Efforts to Control Climate Change

Transcription

1 International Efforts to Control Climate Change IPCC Open Symposium New scientific findings on climate change and the importance of GHG inventory to assess mitigation progress Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan Jim Penman Environment Institute University College London

2 Prehistory & context Chronology Malthus (1798), Arrhenius (1896), Hardin (1968), Club of Rome (1972), Ozone hole (1985), Pearce (1989) 1985 Villach Climate Conference 1988 UNEP and WMO establish IPCC 1992 Rio Earth Summit negotiates UNFCCC 1995 UNFCCC COP agrees Berlin Mandate 1997 Kyoto Protocol agreed 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 2009 Copenhagen Accord 2012 KP 2nd commitment period rules agreed; Advisory Group on Durban Platform established 2015 New comprehensive treaty?

3 Villach Historical climate no longer a guide to economic and social decisions Climate change and sea level rise closely linked to atmospheric changes due to man s activities Some degree warming inevitable Govt policies on energy & GHGs could profoundly affect rate and degree of warming Climate sensitivity Arrhenius 1906 :2.1 C Villach 1985 : 1.5 to 4.5 C IPCC 2013 : 1.5 to 4.5 C (high confidence)

4 Prehistory & context Chronology Malthus (1798), Arrhenius (1896), Hardin (1968), Club of Rome (1972), Ozone hole (1985), Pearce (1989) 1985 Villach Climate Conference 1988 UNEP and WMO establish IPCC 1992 Rio Earth Summit negotiates UNFCCC 1995 UNFCCC COP agrees Berlin Mandate 1997 Kyoto Protocol agreed 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 2009 Copenhagen Accord 2012 KP 2nd commitment period rules agreed; Advisory Group on Durban Platform established 2015 New comprehensive treaty?

5 IIPCC Science and the negotiations UNFCCC 1 st Assessment Report 1990 UNFCCC agreed nd Assessment Report 1996 Kyoto Protocol negotiated IPCC GHG Inventory Guidelines 3 rd Assessment Report 2001 Marrakesh Accords 2001 Good Practice GHG Inventory KP Entry into Force 2005 Guidance 2000 and IPCC GHG Inventory Ready for new treaty Guidelines 4 th Assessment Report 2007 Copenhagen Accord guidance for new KP rules and Wetlands 5 th Assessment Report 2014 Ready for new treaty

6 IIPCC Science and the negotiations UNFCCC 1 st Assessment Report 1990 UNFCCC agreed nd Assessment Report 1996 Kyoto Protocol negotiated IPCC GHG Inventory Guidelines 3 rd Assessment Report 2001 Marrakesh Accords 2001 Good Practice GHG Inventory KP Entry into Force 2005 Guidance 2000 and IPCC GHG Inventory Ready for new treaty Guidelines 4 th Assessment Report 2007 Copenhagen Accord guidance for new KP rules and Wetlands 5 th Assessment Report 2014 Ready for new treaty

7 Why IPCC works Scientists Policy makers Agreement of policymakers summaries

8 1992 UNFCCC Arguably the most effective of the Treaties negotiated at the Rio Earth summit, because: 1) of linkage to continuously updated science consensus, via IPCC, and because 2) emissions are quantifiable through greenhouse gas inventories using a single metric (CO 2 equivalent, using global warming potentials) The second of these is a prerequisite to interaction with the global economy, via a carbon price

9 1992 UNFCCC at a glance Item Framework and process Overall objective Common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) Greenhouse gas inventory requirements National communications Quantified commitments Assessment Success Diplomatic triumph of ambiguity Necessary but needed to evolve Great success, more demanding for developed countries Success Very weak; not binding

10 1992 UNFCCC Objective Article 2: The ultimate objective is to achieve stabilization of [GHG] concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference... Such a level should be achieved within a time frame to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

11 Interpretation Cancun, Cancun Agreements, para 4: Further recognises that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the [IPCC], with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 C and that Parties should take urgent action to meet this longterm goal, consistent with science and on the basis of equity; also recognizes the need to consider strengthening the long term global goal on the basis of the best available scientific knowledge, including in relation to a global average temperature rise of 1.5 C

12 1992 UNFCCC at a glance Item Framework and process Overall objective Common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) Greenhouse gas inventory requirements National communications Quantified commitments Assessment Success Diplomatic triumph of ambiguity Necessary but needed to evolve Great success, more demanding for developed countries Success Very weak; not binding

13 UNFCCC version of quantified commitments Each [developed country] shall adopt policies and measures by limiting its emissions of [GHG} and protecting and enhancing its [GHG] gas sinks and reservoirs. These policies and measures will demonstrate that developed countries are taking the lead consistent with the objective of the Convention, recognizing that the return by the end of the present decade [i.e. by 2000] to earlier levels of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG not controlled by the Montreal Protocol would contribute to such modification, and taking into account the differences in these Parties [national circumstances] the need to maintain strong and sustainable economic growth, available technologies and other individual circumstances, as well as the need for equitable and appropriate contributions by these Parties to the global effort.

14 Kyoto Protocol 1 st attempt to link to wider economy Item Legally binding quantified commitments by country Compliance arrangements with consequences Market mechanisms Clean Development Mechanism More rigorous GHG reporting and review Assessment Basis for greater ambition; scope for differentiation. Good first step. Still developed countries only Way to ensure action; relatively weak because international. Achilles heel Mode of engagement with global economy. Essential step Mode for developing country engagement. Essential but insufficient. Essential underpinning. Review underresourced

15 Issues with the KP Though the KP has the essential elements to mitigate climate change, for the second commitment period it has contracted and is not seen as a global solution. Issues include: International compliance arrangements vs national sovereignty List based approach to CBDR Weight of the subsequent Decisions Resourcing of review process

16 Prospects Global emissions rising at 1.2% pa; slower than GDP (3.2%) but still rising For 66% chance of ΔT <2C need to peak before 2020, then fall to about 40% of the present value Existing pledges for emissions reductions by 2020 less than half the requirement to close the gap Technically feasible but no chance of success without greater ambition via a new treaty with effective action from all countries Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2013

17 Example pledges 2020 pledge KP 1 st commitment period generally wrt 1990 Australia 5% to 15%/2000 unilateral, review in 2015 [8%] Brazil 36.1% to 38.9%/projected NA Canada 17%/2005; aligned with US 6% China 40% to 45% CO2 per GDP/2005 NA EU 20%/1990 (unconditional); 30%/1990 with 8% global deal India 20% to 25% per GDP/2005 NA Indonesia 26%/2020 NA Japan 3.8%/2005 for the time being 6% Mexico 30%/BAU NA New Zealand 5% unconditional; 10% to 20% with global deal 0% Norway 30% unconditional; 40% with global deal [1%] Republic of Korea 30%/BAU NA Republic of South Africa 34%/BAU NA Russian Federation 25%/1990 0% Switzerland 20%/1990 (unconditional); 30%/1990 with 8% global deal United States ~17%/2005 NA

18 Lessons learned: what might work? Strong, efficient international rule set including: Long term goal and pathway Agreed shorter term commitments consistent with it Agreement on compliance arrangements Agreed emissions estimation methodology Implementation maximally devolved Country commitments not necessarily of one kind, but mathematically inter convertible. Absolute necessity of internationally agreed greenhouse gas inventory methodologies as consistent underpinning essential to engage global economy