Climate Change, and the importance of science and policy in achieving a sustainable future

Transcription

1 Climate Change, and the importance of science and policy in achieving a sustainable future Ministerial Open Dialogue Westin Chosun Hotel 22 November, 2017 Seoul, Korea

2 Outline of talk The risks of climate change How science and innovation can make clean energy and a clean environment a low cost option.

3 Outline of talk The risks of climate change

4 Global average temperature increased by 1º C since 1970 Between rise since

5 Cummulative worldwide GHG emissions (GtCO 2 eq.) We are at over ~ 400 ppm CO 2 (490 ppm CO 2-equivalent ) today. The U.N. goal is 450 ppm to keep temperature rise to 1º C increase from today s temperature. We will go like go over 550 ppm. 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, If you don t change direction, you will end up where you are heading. Lao-Tze ( 老子 ) Father of Taoism 2,900 GtCO 2 3/4 of GHG emissions occurred in the last 65 years

6 Outline of talk The risks of climate change: new data How science and innovation can make clean energy and a clean environment a low cost option.

7 Energy efficiency Everywhere: transportation, industrial processes, buildings, cities, agriculture, 7

8 Renewable energy costs (L.C.O.E.) at the best sites around the world is going below 3 /kwh Saudi Arabia 300-megawatt PV plant bid on October 3, 2017: 1.79 /kwh. Abu Dhabi Electricity and Water Authority (September 2016) JinkoSolar Marubeni bid: 2.42 /kwh was accepted 8

9 Comparison of solar energy resources. Korea has ~ 0.58 the solar irradiation as Saudi Arabia and U.A.E 9

10 57.50/MWh bids for Hornsea Two (Dong Energy A/S) and Moray East (EDP Renovaveis SA and Engie SA) for guaranteed contract price (tied to inflation) / MWh

11 Moray East Hornsea 2

12 Wind Map of Great Britain

13 Future Energy Scenarios (National Grid) July 2017 Subsidy-free offshore wind by 2040

14 UK Electricity Costs Offshore wind Onshore wind Natural gas Wholesale price 14

15 Korea has ~ m/s average wind speeds compared to m/s in Great Britain

16 The full cost of renewable energy includes backup generation capacity, the enhanced transmission and distribution system and and energy storage. 16

17 European Undersea HVDC Grid Connections Existing Under construction Under consideration

18 Energy Storage 18

19 Progress in Batteries and other forms of energy storage Pump water when the wind blows or the sun shines 19

20 600 MW solar energy; 300 MW pumped storage Estimate: $1,300 per installed kw of generating capacity and < $10/kWh. Chemical battery goal: < $150 kwh in 5-8 years

21 The cost of lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles are expected to drop to 10% of the 2006 price. $1500 $1000 $500 Tesla Giga Factory projection General Motors: manufacturing cost for their EV cells will be $100/kWh by $

22 Silicon Anode manufacturing tool (very low anode resisitance) Potential commercialization of nanowire technology

23 In 2016, California 29% of used electricity was renewable. The 2020 goal is 33%. The 2030 goal is 50%. There are increasing challenges for the transmission & distribution system. Electrical power will be a mix of central and distributed generation. Multiple layers of real time monitoring and contpol will be need to integrate micro-grids, increased electric vehicle use and the distribution and transmission system. 23

24 Ke Jie AlphaGo sees the whole universe of Go, while I could only see a small area around me it s like I play Go in my backyard, while AlphaGo explores the universe. Machine Learning can be used to automatically manage electricity distribution and learn to forecast energy use. 24

25 2015 and 2016 forecasts of electric vehicles sales 500% increase in sales estimate in 1 year By 2032, 70 million EVs may be on the road. By 2040, EVs may be 35% of car sales ~ million EVs/year

26 The gasoline-powered internal combustion engine rapidly replace horse powered vehicles. New York, 5 th Avenue, ~1890s Detroit, circa 1920 Automobile technology ultimately proved to be superior, but required a oil-gasoline supply chain, paved roads, and other infrastructure. A serious environmental pollution issue hastened the transition. The ~160,000 horses in New York in 1880 were producing 3-4 millions pounds of horse manure and 40,000 gallons urine a day. 26

27 Particulate matter PM 2.5 (diameter < 2.5 μm) is deadly. Hazard Ratio = 1.18 for every 5 μg/m 3 of PM 2.5 based on people followed for ~ 12 8 years incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed. (The Lancet Oncology 14, (2013) The average air in Beijing in 2016 is ~ 76 μg/m 3. Risk of getting lung cancer (1.18) 76/5 = 200x higher? WHO guideline is currently 10 μg/m 3. Estimated 4.5 million deaths/year due to air pollution Coronary disease, stroke, lung cancer, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) See Nature Commentary, 2017)

28 Comparison of heath risks of nuclear vs. coal power (Analysis done before PM 2.5 risks were known) Deaths: coal vs. nuclear energy/twh 470:1 lignite vs. nuclear 627:1 Serious illness: coal vs. nuclear 1000:1 Source: Electricity generation and health, Anil Markandya, Paul Wilkinson, Lancet. 370(9591), (2007)

29 The full cost of renewable energy includes backup generation capacity, the enhanced transmission and distribution system and and energy storage. How much baseload power will be needed? It depends on where you are. California electricity generated and used is ~ 35%. renewable (wind, solar and hydropower). Our goal is to achieve 50% by Japan, Taiwan, Korea, do not have abundant renewable resources. 29

30 Nuclear Fission provides carbon-free energy (Korean APR 1400 in UAE) The nuclear waste issue is solvable. Nuclear proliferation requires international cooperation.

31 Small Modular Reactors may allow mass production al better quality control

32 Adsorption Desorption with small temperature increase Cooling Conditioning Target capture costsco 2 using MOFs or other materials < $30/ton of CO 2 Low heat capacity nano microstructured materials for absorption and regeneration with Metal Organic Frameworks (MOFs) and other advanced materials.

33 A challenge for the 21 st Century We need to produce liquid hydrocarbons from splitting water into H 2 and O 2 and reducing CO 2. 33

34 100% renewable energy will require recycling combustion products CO 2 Thermochemical Electrochemical Photochemical Biochemical H 2, CO H 2, O 2 Liquid hydrocarbon H 2 O 34

35 How much does it cost to ship and store oil any where in the world? 2 /gallon of gasoline. Oil tankers are transcontinental energy transmission lines 35

36 Earthrise from Apollo 8 (December 24, 1968) "We came all this way to explore the moon and the most important thing is that we discovered the Earth. Bill Anders, Apollo 8 Astronaut 36

37 end 37

38 Comparison of annual irradiation of Korea and the U.S.