Solar electricity from and for buildings

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1 Solar electricity from and for buildings Solar electricity from and for buildings The silent revolution of photovoltaic technology Wim C. Sinke ECN Solar Energy, Utrecht University & European Photovoltaic Technology Platform

2 City of the Sun, Municipality of Heerhugowaard,, NL

3 Main solar energy (direct) conversion options light low temperature heat light high temperature heat electricity Concentrating Solar Power, CSP light electricity photovoltaic conversion, PV light chemical energy photo(electro)chemical fuel production, artificial photosynthesis light high temperature heat chemical energy thermo-chemical fuel production 3

4 The many faces of solar electricity (PV) sunlight solar cell electricity heat

5 Contents market: scenarios and plans achievements so far technology: requirements for very large-scale use state-of-the-art and developments economy and ecology: system prices & generation costs environmental aspects challenges and opportunities 5 Background photo:

6 Contents market: scenarios and plans achievements so far technology: requirements for very large-scale use state-of-the-art and developments economy and ecology: system prices & generation costs environmental aspects challenges and opportunities 6 Background photo:

7 Solar energy for sustainability: the challenge quantified EJ/a geothermal other renewables solar thermal (heat only) solar power (photovoltaics (PV) & solar thermal generation (CSP) wind energy biomass (advanced) biomass (traditional) hydroelectricity nuclear power gas coal oil the challenge: 100 ~ 1000 EJ 20 ~ 200 TWp 0.1 ~ 2 million km 2 PV modules year 2100 Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, (example scenario) 7

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9 Solar Europe Initiative / SET for 2020 (developed in the framework of the EU Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan)

10 Solar Europe Initiative / SET for 2020 (developed in the framework of the EU Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan) PV is indispensible for the energy transition (especially in the built environment) PV is not only a long term option potential contribution to the total EU electricity consumption in 2020: baseline scenario - 4% accelerated scenario - 6% paradigm shift scenario 12% M. Lippert,, SAFT

11 Cumulative installed PV capacity (EU27 and world)

12 PV systems: main types grid connected system PV inverter = / user electricity grid PV charge regulator stand-alone system (storage) user

13 Cumulative installed PV capacity per application type Cumulative installed capacity [MW] On-grid Off-grid Source: Stefan Nowak, NET, Switzerland and IEA-PVPS

14 Contents market: scenarios and plans achievements so far technology: requirements for very large-scale use state-of-the-art and developments economy and ecology: system prices & generation costs environmental aspects challenges and opportunities 14 Background photo:

15 Typical requirements for VLSPV (TW scale) Electricity generation costs <<0.10 /kwh turn-key system price <1 /Wp (now typicaly >2.5 /Wp) low-cost modules at high efficiency (20~30%) or: very low-cost modules at moderate efficiency (10~15%) Use of non-toxic, abundantly available materials and fully closed cycles Stability >20 years intrinsic (active materials) and extrinsic (passive materials) But: IEA PVPS, Task 8: VLSPV also need transition technologies, to develop the market and to demonstrate scientific/technical and economical potential 15

16 IMEC Cell & module technologies ( flat plate ) Commercial: wafer-based crystalline silicon - monocrystalline (cut) - multicrystalline (cut) - ribbons ( 85% of 2008 global market) Commercial: thin films - silicon - copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS) - cadmium telluride (CdTe) ( 15% of 2008 global market) Nuon Helianthos Konarka NanoSolar Pilot production and laboratory: emerging and novel technologies - super-low-cost concepts (printed organic & inorganic, etc.) - super-high-efficiency concepts

17 Cell & module technologies ( flat plate ) Commercial: wafer-based crystalline silicon module efficiencies 12 ~ 20% Commercial: thin films module efficiencies 6 ~ 12% Pilot production and laboratory: emerging and novel technologies module efficiencies 2 (0) ~ 10% (most not yet commercially available)

18 INTERMEZZO: electricity yield of PV systems (indicative figures for CH) 1 m 2 of optimally oriented system yields 100 ~ 200 kwh ac /yr (a.o. dependent on module type and location) roof of a family house (15 ~ 30 m 2 ) yields 1500 ~ 6000 kwh ac /yr

19 Developments in NL: new, integrated cell- and module design (ECN, Eurotron, Solland Solar) conventional lay-up A A n+ Base: p n+ Base: p n+ Base: p n+ Base: p n+ Base: p Cross-section AA

20 Developments in NL: new, integrated cell- and module design (ECN, Eurotron, Solland Solar) Glass sheet Encapsulant BC solar cell Interconnection foil world records module efficiency multicrystalline Si 120 µm cells: : 16% 180 µm cells: : 17% Contact pad

21 Photovoltaic conversion: basic process and losses recombination X gap energy X X light generation 21

22 Solar spectrum and spectral losses 1.6 UV visible infrared solar spectrum (Air Mass 1,5; 1000 W/m 2 ) power [W/(m 2.nm)] X available for conversion in crystalline Si 1100 nm 1.1 ev = Si bandgap 0.0 courtesy John Schermer, KUN X wavelength [nm] Courtesy John Schermer, RUN 22

23 Photovoltaic conversion efficiency: potential & limits (simplified) Ideal cells Loss factor Selected remedies - spectral losses - multi-gap & multi-band cells, η 30% spectrum shaping, hot carrier cells (1 sun) multi-carrier generation - recombination - concentration η<75~85% and curve loss Practical cells and modules: add - extra recombination - shadowing and reflection - transmission η = 042% 42% - resistance - non-optimal band gap (upward potential to >60%) Dr. Andreas Bett Fraunhofer ISE

24 Concentrator technology application form of choice for expensive (per m 2 ) super high efficiency cells world record efficiency PV conversion: 42% (Spectrolab, USA) system efficiency 25%, potential >40% mainly suited for regions with high fraction direct (i.e. not diffuse) sunlight

25 Contents market: scenarios and plans achievements so far technology: requirements for very large-scale use state-of-the-art and developments economy and ecology: system prices & generation costs environmental aspects challenges and opportunities 25 Background photo:

26 Price development solar modules: the learning curve (combined benefits of innovation, experience and scale % price decrease for every doubling of cumulative production wafer Si 2007 Thin film 2009 silicon feedstock shortage 2009 Source: EPIA, October 2009

27 Projected evolution of PV technology Rounded, indicative figures Long term potential Typical turn-key system price (2009 /Wp) >30 4 (range 2.5~5) 2 (range 1.5~3) Typical electricity generation costs NW / S Europe (2009 /kwh) >3 / > / 0.25 (low end 0.15) 0.20 / 0.12 (low end 0.08) 0.10 / / 0.03 Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies up to 8% up to 15% Up to 20% up to 25% up to 40% Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies ( 10%) up to 25% Up to 30% up to 40% up to 60% Typical system energy pay-back time NW / S Europe (yrs) >20 <3 / <2 <1.5 / <1 <1 <0.5

28 insolation map: Grid parity (consumer prices) in Europe 2008

29 Grid parity in Europe 2010 (lines to guide the eye)

30 Grid parity in Europe 2015 (lines to guide the eye)

31 Grid parity in Europe 2020 (lines to guide the eye)

32 Grid parity in Europe 2030 (lines to guide the eye)

33 Contents market: scenarios and plans achievements so far technology: requirements for very large-scale use state-of-the-art and developments economy and ecology: system prices & generation costs environmental aspects challenges and opportunities 33 Background photo:

34 Challenges and opportunities (PV technology related) improve price/performance ratio on module and system levels; reach grid parity and (far) beyond create selfsustained market segments a.s.a.p. maximize efficiency for optimum use of limited space on buildings (even further) increase product lifetime develop dedicated products for integration in built environment and physical infrastructure (including PV + T) optimize sustainability (multi-aspect concept) benefit from one of the most rapidly growing industry sectors worldwide

35 Greenpeace 35