SMART ENERGY: STATUS QUO BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN GERMANY

Transcription

1 SMART ENERGY: STATUS QUO BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN GERMANY APRIL 2016 Heiko Staubitz Germany Trade & Invest

2 Development of Renewable Energy Systems Feed-in-Tariff Causes Dynamic Growth Total capacity of renewables (End 2000) 2005) 2010) 2014) ~ ~ , ,000 30,000 installations Wind energy PV Biomass The circle diameter is proportional to the electrical capacity Sources: 50HertzT, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, internal data Germany Trade & Invest 2

3 Electricity Generation Renewable Shares Increase from 5% to 32.6% Energy Source Share in Electricity Generation 1 (1998) Energy Source Share in Electricity Generation 1 (2015) Natural Gas 9,1% Hard Coal 27,5% Oil, Pumped Storage + Others 4,6% Total: TWh Export: 0.6 TWh Renewable Energies 5% Lignite 25,0% Nuclear Power 29,1% Wind (Offshore) 1,3% Hydro power 3,0% Biomass & waste 7,7% Oil and others 4,8% Natural Gas 9,1% Total: 651,8 TWh Export: 51,8 TWh Wind Onshore 12,2% Photovoltaic 5,9% Hard Coal 18,1% Nuclear Power 14,1% Lignite 23,8% Source: AG Energiebilanzen August 2015; 1) Gross Electricity Generation Germany Trade & Invest 3

4 Nuclear Power Lignite Biomass Hard Coal Hydropower Natural Gas Wind Power Oil Pumped Storage Photovoltaics Offshore Wind Utilization of German Power Plants Off-shore Wind Recognized for High Potential Energy Source Share of Installed Capacity (2015) Full Load Hours of Power Plant Types (2013) Wind Power (Offshore) 1,4% Photovoltaic 19,5% Nuclear Power 5,4% Lignite 13,6% Wind Power (Onshore) 19,3% Hard Coal 10,5% Hydropower 2,8% Biomass and Waste 3,9% Oil, Pump Hydro and Others 9,3% Natural Gas 14,3% Total: 200 GW Annual peak load: app. 80 GW Wind & PV: 80 GW Year: 8,760 h Source: Bundesnetzagentur 2016, *BDEW 2014 Germany Trade & Invest 4

5 German Energy Concept (2010) Main Objectives Climate protection measures GHG cuts vs % -80% Renewable share of 2020 (2025) 2050 Total energy consumption 18% 60% Electricity consumption 35% (40-45%) 80% Heat generation 14% 60% Energy efficiency measures Increase in energy productiveness 2.1% p.a. Reduction of energy consumption -50% (2050 vs. 2008) Reduction of electricity consumption -25% (2050 vs. 2008) Renovation rate Reduction of energy consumption for transportation 2% p.a. -10% (2020 vs. 2005) -40% (2050 vs. 2005) Germany Trade & Invest 5

6 Goals of Renewable Consumption Developments on Target Current Staus Current Staus (EU 2009/28//EG**) Goals German Energy Concept 2011 Corridor pursuant to coalition agreement 2013 Source: BDEW 2016 Germany Trade & Invest 6

7 Industrial Electricity Prices Electricity Tariffs in Germany are in the Upper Range Average annual industrial electricity prices with a consumption of 500-2,000 MWh¹ Average annual industrial electricity prices with a consumption of 20,000-70,000 MWh¹ Italy Germany UK Ireland EU-28 Spain Slovak Rep. Belgium Austria France Netherlands Denmark Poland Hungary Romania Czech Rep. Bulgaria Sweden 16,08 15,09 14,89 14,17 12,06 11,73 11,26 11,00 10,39 10,07 9,14 8,99 8,82 8,67 8,30 7,72 6,92 6,22 UK Italy Germany Ireland Slovak Rep. EU-28 Hungary Spain Denmark France Belgium Austria Czech Rep. Poland Netherlands Romania Bulgaria Sweden 13,36 12,49 11,11 10,05 9,35 9,33 8,46 8,31 7,77 7,71 7,68 7,64 7,41 7,06 7,03 6,53 5,50 4,80 Note: ¹2015 (first half), including taxes except VAT. All data in EUR-cent per kilowatt hour. Source: Eurostat 2016 Note: ¹2015 (first half), including taxes except VAT. All data in EUR-cent per kilowatt hour. Source: Eurostat 2016 Germany Trade & Invest 7

8 Components of the Electricity Price Cost of Generation, Transport and Distribution are below 1998 Development and Composition of Electricity Prices for Industrial Customers in Germany ( , in EUR ct/kwh) ,15 0,08 0,26 0,09 9,15 8,51 1,23 1,23 0,35 0,42 0,31 0,36 0,2 0,24 5,46 5,62 5,99 6,17 1,23 1,23 0,51 0,69 7,02 7,65 1,23 1,23 0,88 1,02 9,26 9 1,23 1,16 10,7 1,537 1,537 1,537 1,54 1,537 1,537 1,537 1,23 3,53 3,59 5,28 1,31 2,05 6,24 6,17 6,35 8,7 8,63 8,83 8,98 7,85 6,95 7,19 6, Generation, Transport Distribution Concession levy Renewable Energy Act contribution CHP-Allocation Electricity tax abla-contribution 19 allocation Offshore liability apportionment Source: BDEW, ) electricity consumption from 100 kw/1600h up to 4000 kw/5000h Germany Trade & Invest 8

9 Electricity Prices for Private Households Electricity Prices in Germany above EU Average Avg. annual electricity prices for private households with a consumption of 1,000-2,500 kwh¹ Avg. annual electricity prices for private households with a consumption of 2,500-5,000 kwh¹ Denmark Germany Ireland Spain Norway Austria UK Belgium EU-28 Italy Sweden Czech Rep. France Slovak Rep. Poland Romania Netherlands Hungary Bulgaria 33,37 32,12 30,98 27,15 24,90 24,19 23,52 22,49 22,43 20,82 20,67 19,67 18,25 17,42 15,35 13,30 12,12 11,67 9,54 Note: ¹2015 (first half), including all taxes. All data in EUR-cent per kilowatt hour. Source: Eurostat 2016 Denmark Germany Italy Ireland Spain Belgium UK EU-28 Austria Netherlands Sweden France Norway Slovak Rep. Poland Romania Czech Rep. Hungary Bulgaria 30,68 29,51 24,50 24,26 23,09 21,26 21,25 20,78 20,09 19,57 18,51 16,24 16,14 15,06 14,44 13,03 12,73 11,27 9,42 Note: ¹2015 (first half), including all taxes. All data in EUR-cent per kilowatt hour. Source: Eurostat 2016 Germany Trade & Invest 9

10 Green Paper, White Paper, Electricity Market Act moving forward to a modern electricity market design in Germany 1. GREEN PAPER October WHITE PAPER July ELECTRICITY MARKET ACT Spring 2016 Source: BMWi Sophie Müller-Godeffroy / IIIB1 General Issues of Electricity and Security of Supply Germany Trade & Invest 10

11 Electricity Market Act Fundamental Decision for Electricity Market 2.0 Guarantee free price formation Strengthen obligations to uphold balancing group commitments Open up balancing markets for new providers Capacity reserve From 2021 up to 2 GW new and flexible power plants for South Germany Source: BMWi Sophie Müller-Godeffroy / IIIB1 General Issues of Electricity and Security of Supply Germany Trade & Invest 11

12 Smart Meter Roll-Out Smart Metering Systems to be rolled out in Germany from 2017 New draft law Digitizing the Energy Transition : Smart Metering System (SMS) = Electronic Meter + Secure Communication Gateway Electronic meters new standard in 16-year meter replacement cycle for all users Mandatory roll-out of full SMS starts 2017 with large users > 10,000 kwh/a and producers with installed capacity between 7 and 100 kw From 2020 possibility to require other consumers and producers to install SMS Price ceilings apply when equipment is installed Source: Landis + Gyr SMS can always be fitted on a voluntary basis Germany Trade & Invest 12

13 Smart Meter Roll-Out Systems to be required first for Energy Producers and large Energy Users By 2017: Consumers >100,000 kwh: no price cap By 2017: Consumers 50, ,000 kwh and producers kw: 200 /a By 2017: Consumers 20,000-50,000 kwh and producers kw: 170 /a By 2017: Consumers 10,000-20,000 kwh and producers kw: 130 /a By 2017: Producers 7-15 kw: 100 /a By 2020: Consumers 6,000-10,000 kwh: 100 /a By 2020: Producers > 100 kw: no price cap Option: Measuring point operators can extend roll-out, if it stays below price cap. By 2020: Consumers 4,000-6,000 kwh: 60 /a By 2020: Consumers 3,000-4,000 kwh: 40 /a By 2020: Consumers 2,000-3,000 kwh: 30 /a By 2020: Consumers < 2,000 kwh: 23 /a Source: BMWI 2016 Electricity SMS market potential: 50 million meters! Germany Trade & Invest 13

14 Smart Meter Roll-Out By 2032, >50 million Meters will be Electronic and many smart Metering points in Germany (in millions): Producers CHP plants (>7 kw) Renewable energy plants (>7 kw) 0,01 1 >100,000 kwh/a 0,3 Mandatory SMS from 2017 / , ,000 kwh/a 2 Consumers 6,000-10,000 kwh/a 2,4 4,000-6,000 kwh/a 3,000-4,000 kwh/a < 3,000 kwh/a 5, Optional SMS from Required installation of electronic meters everywhere lays groundwork for SMS. Full SMS mandatory where economic and business case is strongest. Source: BMWI 2016; Ernst & Young, 2013 Germany Trade & Invest 14

15 Distribution grid Operators in Germany 20 Companies with a Market Share of 60% No. Operator Majority shareholder Number of offtake points at low-voltage Number of offtake points at medium-voltage 1 Westnetz GmbH RWE Netze BW EnBW Bayernwerk AG E.ON Stromnetz Berlin GmbH Vattenfall envia Mitteldeutsche Energie AG RWE E.ON E.DIS AG E.ON E.ON Avacon AG E.ON Stromnetz Hamburg GmbH Vattenfall EWE Netz GmbH Syna GmbH RWE Stadtwerke München GmbH (SWM) E.ON Mitte AG E.ON E.ON Hanse AG E.ON Thüringer Energienetze GmbH (TEN) LEW Verteilnetz GmbH (LVN) RWE VNB Rhein-Main Neckar GmbH & Co. KG Stadtwerke Düsseldorf Netz GmbH EnBW ENSO Netz GmbH NRM Netzdienste Rhein-Main GmbH Mainova Locations of the headquarters of the distribution grid operators Germany Trade & Invest 15

16 Distribution Grid Innovative Concepts and Smart Technologies leads to Significant Cost Reduction Conventional grid development by 2032 Innovative concepts by 2032 Expansions of 130,000km up to 280,000km Investment needs for the grid extension and conversion: 23bn 49bn Increase of grid fee by 10-20% Regional grid fee differences 70% must be invested in the first 10 years 60% cost reduction in grid expansion 40% through 3% curtailment of renewable plants and further 20% with smart technologies possible 20% cost reduction with ICT and ront Levelizing of regional grid fee differences Source: BMWi Distribution Grid Study 2014 Germany Trade & Invest 16

17 The Smart Grid Market Overview New power structure in 2022 will lead to bottle necks in Germany Power balance 2012 Power balance 2022 Source: Netzentwicklungsplan 2012 Germany Trade & Invest 17

18 Expansion of the electricity grid in Germany An enormous expansion of the high voltage grid system is required by 2024 Grid Expansion Distance in Km. AC-New Construction 648 DC-Corridor 1,750 DC-New Interconnections 350 AC- Grid Reinforcement 2,750 AC-DC Convertor 300 Total 5,798 Expansion and Reinforcement Transmission grid Baseline scenario with overhead lines requires: 22 bn Additionally the connection of the offshore-grid is estimated to bn Source: BNetzA 2015 B2024 Szenario Fossil: 84.9 GW Renewable GW / Offshore transmission capacity 2x900 plus 1x500MW Germany Trade & Invest 18

19 European Grid Extension projects Approx. 48,000 km transmission lines needed in the coming decade 150 billion grid expansion proposed by the TYNDP 2014 enhanced market integration will reduce bulk power prices by 2 to 5 /MWh Pan-European Significance investments Long-term horizon (>=2019) TYNDP 2014 investment portfolio breakdown per technology Source: TYNDP-2014 Ten-year network development plan ENTSO-E Germany Trade & Invest 19

20 AmpaCity Flagship Project in Essen World longest superconductor system replace inner city high voltage cable Situation 2010 Goal 2020 Source: RWE AG Germany Trade & Invest 20

21 AmpaCity Flagship Project in Essen Economic comparison of different network configurations Source: RWE AG Germany Trade & Invest 21

22 AmpaCity Flagship Project in Essen Pre-prototype tests completed in 2012 and testing phase Source: RWE AG Germany Trade & Invest 22

23 PV-Batteries in Germany: >100% growth in 2015 Around 35% of newly installed PV-systems (<30 kwp) in Q also bought a battery using the KfW support program. Number of newly installed PV systems (<30 kwp) and number of KfW supported battery systems** Q2 13* Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Number of PV systems (<30 kwp) Share of new PV systems installed with batteries (right ordinate) Number of KfW-supported PV-Batteries (excluding retrofit) Note: * May and June 2013 figures only; **excluding retrofit battery systems ( : 10% retrofit; 2015: 17% retrofit); According to KfW Speichermonitoring, KfW supported battery systems make up about 55% of the total PV battery systems installed. Source: Federal Network Agency 2016; KfW 2016, EuPD 2015, PV-Magazine 2015 Germany Trade & Invest 23

24 The German PV-storage system market outlook By 2020, PV-battery systems could reach an annual installation volume of around 50,000 systems in Germany Number of newly installed PV-battery systems (<30 kwp) Number of new battery systems with new PV installations Number of new battery systems with retrofit installations Note: assumptions: new annual PV installations : 1.4 GWp Source: year 2015: Federal Network Agency, KfW Speichermonitoring, 2016; years : own calculation and estimate, 2016 Germany Trade & Invest 24

25 Organization of the German Electricity Market Control power market attractive option for flexibility providers Trading Wholesale Electricity Market OTC EEX Control Power Futures Market Spot Market Futures Market Spot Market Primary Control Power Secondary Control Power Tertiary Control Power Forwards/ Options/ Structured Products Physical and financial fulfillment physically Futures/ Options Mainly financial fulfillment physically Germany Trade & Invest 25

26 The German Control Power Market Interaction between primary, secondary and tertiary control power Outage in a power plant in Saxony-Anhalt Primary control power Secondary control power Tertiary control power Germany Trade & Invest 26

27 The German Primary Control Power Market PCR price development and break even calculation for battery systems Capacity price per week ( /MW) Weekly average 2,757 /MW 19, Weekly average Weekly average Weekly average 2,987 /MW 3,536 /MW 3,659 /MW 2016 Mean specific capacity price payment per year: 165,000 /MW (52 x 3,170 /MW) Interest rate: 5 % Operation costs: 2 %/a from CAPEX Amortization period: 10 a Energy/Power ratio: 1: max. CAPEX: 1,100 /kwh Source: regelleistung.net Germany Trade & Invest 27

28 Large-scale batteries balancing the grid Installed battery capacity in Germany for primary control power Total large-scale battery capacity until 2016/2017: 141 MW C A B G E F D 2012/ /2017 Year of commissioning J I H S T R Q P O N M L K A: Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall, [Hybrid: Li-Ion, NAS], 1 MW B: Völklingen-Fenne, Steag [Li-Ion], 1 MW C: Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall [LiFePo], 2 MW D: Pellworm, EON & Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG [Hybrid: Li-ion, Redox-flow], 0.76 MW E: Schwerin, Younicos & Wemag [Li-Ion], 5 MW F: Braderup, Bosch [Hybrid: Li-ion, Redox-flow], 2 MW G: Alt Darber, Upside Group[Lead-acid], 1.6 MW H: Dresden, Younicos & DREWAG [Li-ion], 2 MW I: Feldheim, Energiequelle GmbH [Li-Ion], 10 MW J: Various sites, N-ERGIE & Caterva [Li-Ion], 1 MW K: Lünen, Daimler [Li-Ion second life], 13 MW L: Aachen, Eon Energy Research Centre at RWTH Aachen University [Hybrid: Li-ion, hightemperature, lead-acid], 5 MW M: Dörverden, Statkraft [Li-Ion, ads-tec], 3 MW N: Neuhardenberg, Upside Group [Li-Ion], 5 MW O: Herne, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW P: Lünen, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW Q: Duisburg-Walsum, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW R: Bexbach, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW S: Fenne, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW T: Weiher, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW Source: IEK-STE Database, Energiespeicher Jülich Germany Trade & Invest 28

29 Development of Renewable Energy Curtailment Disconnection of 1.6 TWh in 2014 with a wind power share of 77% (2014) % % % GWh Mio. wind energy solar energy others Source: Monitoring report , Bundesnetzagentur Germany Trade & Invest 29

30 National Innovation Program (NIP) A unique research program in Europe has been set up by the German government to promote R&D in the area of fuel cells and hydrogen The NIP is the most important R&D program for the H2 and fuel cells industry in Europe Total budget of 1.4 bn. from in the form of project grants ( 161 Mio) Main funding areas for R&D and demonstration activities are: Stationary applications Mobile applications Portable & Special markets Combined heat and power units on the micro scale for residential buildings Combined heat and power units for large commercial buildings and industry Fuel cell drive systems for vehicles (i.e. automobiles, buses) Supply of hydrogen (production, distribution, and fueling stations) Auxiliary power units for aircrafts, ships and trucks Micro applications (Mobile Phone, Laptop) Auxiliary power supply (RVs) Fuel cell drive systems for storage (i.e. forklifts, industrial trucks) Sources: German Ministry of Environment; IiG Research 2008 Germany Trade & Invest 30

31 Example: E.ON "Power to Gas" pilot "Falkenhagen" Key Parameters 2 MWel Hydrogen production: 360 m³/h Feed-in into the local gas grid (ONTRAS Gastransport) Start of construction: August 2012; Start of operation: August 2013 Owner: E.ON Gas Storage Goals Demonstration of the process chain Optimize operational concept (fluctuating power from wind vs. changing gas feed) Gain experience in technology, costs and consenting in cooperation with Source: E.ON Innovation Center Energy Storage, October 2013 Germany Trade & Invest 31

32 Example: Audi e-gas plant in Werlte Plant prequalified for secondary control power Key Parameters Project name: Audi e-gas Projekt Input power: 6 MWel Hydrogen production: m³/h Start of operation: Owner: Audi AG Carbon dioxide source: a biogas plant Goals Partner Demonstration of the process chain Optimize operational concept (fluctuating power from wind vs. changing gas feed) Gain experience in technology, costs and consenting Source: Audi AG SolarFuel GmbH Zentrum für Sonnenenergie und Wasserstoff- Forschung Frauenhofer Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik EWE Energie AG Germany Trade & Invest 32

33 Green Hydrogen and Power to Gas H2 Mobility action plan for the Construction of a hydrogen refueling network in Germany until 2023 TARGETS: 400 HRS until 2023 ( 100 HRS until 2017). 350 mio. investment. Max. 90 km distance between two HRS at the motorway. 10 HRS in each metropolitan area. Partner: Associated Partner: Source: NOW Germany Trade & Invest 33

34 SINTEG New Smart Energy Showcase Regions EUR 600 mln for cutting-edge technologies to showcase solutions for Germany s future energy system in 5 regions from HAMBURG 3 DÜSSELDORF FRANKFURT 2 1 STUTTGART 5 5 BERLIN DRESDEN 1 MUNICH 1. C/sells: interconnected, regional energy systems with cellular structure and focus on PV integration that balance each other 2. Designnetz: decentralized renewable power supplied flexibly to urban and industrial load centers 3. Enera: Stabilizing the grid by improved measurement and data analysis coupled with new market mechanisms. 4. NEW 4.0: Maximizing the efficient use of regional wind power overproduction by flexible demand response and interregional trade in electricity 5. WindNODE: Sectors electricity, heat, and mobility are integrated to flexibly accomodate fluctuating regional wind power Source: bmwi Germany Trade & Invest 34

35 Contact Us Smart Grid & Energy Storage Heiko Staubitz Senior Manager T +49 (0) heiko.staubitz@gtai.com Friedrichstr Berlin Germany Trade & Invest is the economic development agency of the Federal Republic of Germany. The company helps create and secure extra employment opportunities, strengthening Germany as a business location. With more than 50 offices in Germany and abroad and its network of partners throughout the world, Germany Trade & Invest supports German companies setting up in foreign markets, promotes Germany as a business location and assists foreign companies setting up in Germany. Supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy on the basis of a decision by the German Bundestag. Germany Trade & Invest All market data provided is based on the most current market information available at the time of publication. Germany Trade & Invest accepts no liability for the actuality, accuracy, or completeness of the information provided. 35