Present and future of Renewable Energies in Europe

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1 Present and future of Renewable Energies in Europe Arnulf Jäger-Waldau and Nicolae Scarlat Scientific Technical Reference System on RE & EEE Renewable Energies Unit 1 The Renewable Energies Unit MISSION: By giving advice on related technology issues, the Renewable Energies Unit supports European Policies for implementing Renewables for a sustainable energy supply. It maintains in-house research on carefully selected, forward-looking fields which need further European efforts to increase share of Renewable Energies in the competitive market 2

2 Organisation of STRS RE&EEE Status of Renewable Energies Analysis of implementation measures for RE Efficient End-use of Electricity Status Renewable Energies Efficient End-use of Energy Monitoring of Policies Stand by loads Codes of conduct Analysis of implementation measures for RE New MS Renewable Energies Resources Energy in Buildings 3 Why STRS RE&EEE? Commission has the task and the mandate to continuously monitor and evaluate the progress achieved in implementing Renewable Energies and Energy End-Use Efficiency. Renewable Electricity Directive: Indicative renewable energy and energy efficiency targets for each of the 25 Member States. Larger frame is: European energy strategy and policy: the twin objectives of sustainability (incl. environmental aspects) and security of energy supply. 4

3 A Common System of S&T Reference The complexity of governance requires a broad knowledge base Measure efficiency Develop dependable procedures and measurements Quantify input S&T Reference Alert on new developments Identify opportunities and threats Monitor implementation Store and disseminate information Assess options 5 The Energy Challenge 6

4 2050: 10 billion people in the World Energy Needs: 2002: 10,230 Mtoe/year = 13.6 TW 2050: > 25,000 Mtoe/year = > 33.2 TW Electricity 2002: 1.8 TW, of which 0.3 nuclear Transport 2002: 2.5 TW If 50% of new capacity in 2050 nuclear = 10 TW: one reactor every second DAY 7 Sustainability The Energy Challenges De-coupling of economic growth from depletion of resources and global warming Security of Supply Ensuring long term availability of energy sources Safety of the Energy Chain Accidents, political stability, import dependence Growing Demand in Developing Countries 2000 million with no basic electricity service Distribution grid never economically viable 8

5 Options Decrease Energy Intensity (Mtoe/GNP) Increase Efficiency of Energy End-use Domestic, Industry, Transport Increase Efficiency of Electricity Generation Increase [indigenous] Supply New and Renewable Energies Examine Nuclear Option 9 Renewable Energies: Options Electricity Wind Solar Photovoltaics Geothermal Agro-Biomass Waste-Biomass Wave/Tide Heat Solar Thermal Geothermal Biomass Waste-Biomass Transport (electric car) (electric car) Biofuels 10

6 The Policy Frame 11 Policy Frame Green Paper* of the European Commission: Supply-dependence (50% imported now, with New Member States and Candidate Countries 80%) Targets to reduce Greenhouse-Gas emissions (- 8%) Uncertain future of nuclear energy Liberalisation of electricity markets Increasing demand of transport sector (+50% until 2010) Increasing demand in developing countries *Green Paper Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply COM(2000)

7 Renewable Energy: Indicative Targets White Paper*: Double Share of Renewable Energy Sources by 2010, from 6% to 12% Electricity Produced [TWh/a] Year Biomass Wind Photovoltaics x2 x10 x20 x100! ,03 Progress until ,50 *White Paper for a Community Strategy and Action Plan Energy for the Future: Renewable Sources of Energy COM(97)599 final (26/11/1997) 13 Instruments Directive 2001/77/EC ( ) on the Promotion of Electricity Produced from Renewable Energy Sources in the Internal Electricity Market. Elements: Indicative targets for Member States Regulates Grid-Access 2-year progress reporting intervals 2006 decision point on Implementation schemes 14

8 Renewable Electricity Sources: Targets Austria Belgium Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom 12.9% 21% Production Reference Year: 1997 (EU15) and 1999 (New Member States) Goal for % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 15 Renewable Electricity Targets Austria Belgium Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Production share in Reference Year: 1997 (EU15 ), 1999 (New Member States) Goal for share in 2010 Electricity from Wind in Germany 2005: 26.5 TWh Electricity Generation of a Nuclear Power Plant with 1.3GW capacity: 9.1 TWh Electricitry from PV in EU : 1.5 TWh Electricity from Renewable Energies [TWh] 16

9 Technology Options 17 Nuclear Fuel Processing Nuclear Fission H 2 H 2 Coal Treated Coal H 2 Catalytic/Steam Reforming Hydrogen Fuel Cell H 2 Crude Oil Refinery Gasoline /Diesel Steam Electricity Generation H 2 Natural Gas H 2 Combustion Turbines Combined Heat Power Heat Biomass/Waste Energy Crops Solar Thermal Geothermal Wind Wave Tide Hydro Biofuels Emissions Reciprocal Eng η Turbines Mech. Energy Propulsion Solar Electric Photovoltaic Conversion 18

10 Biomass 19 Bioenergy pathways agriculture forestry domestic & industrial waste oil crops rape, sunflower sugar & starch crops cereals, sugar beet, sorghum solid biomass crop residues SRF & grasses wood residues & waste wet biomass manure organic waste resource esterification hydrolysis/ fermentation pyrolysis gasification combustion anaerobic fermentation conversion technology liquid biofuels for transport (ethanol, FAME, DME, etc.) Electricity cogeneration heat steam mode of use 20

11 100 % % GHG avoided, WTW % DME Synth. diesel biodiesel Wood H 2 +FC ethanol Sugar beet to SSCF ethanol bioethanol Sugar beet pulp burnt Sugar beet pulp to feed Hydrogen/FC from wind & nuclear If we replace 5% of conventional diesel/gasoline with alternative fuel, 100% GHG avoided corresponds to 37 Mtonnes CO 2 equivalent saved per year. update Direct costs of avoiding GHG by alternative transport fuels Hydrogen/FC from NG Ethanol from wheat, no straw FIG. 1 On-board gasoline reformer+fc CNG DME from NG 0% JRC "Well-to-Wheel" Study, /tonne CO 2 eq. avoided Biofuels in transportation in ,500 2,000 1, t 1, Austria Belgium Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary From Member States Reports in the frame of Directive 2003/30EC biodiesel Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg bioethanol Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK

12 Share of biofuels in transportation in Austria Belgium Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland From Member States Reports in the frame of Directive 2003/30EC 23 France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK wheat & barley production (tons/region) Potential energy from straw in EU25+2 at the level of regions (year 2000) straw (tons/region) straw energy (TJ/region) + grain/straw = from 0.62 to t straw = GJ source: Eucronos 24

13 Biomass: Strategy Biomass Action Plan (2005) Secure existing Bioenergies in agricultural areas Sustainable forestry and agriculture Establish new technologies in existing Markets Introduction of Bioenergy crops (10% of European agricultural area can replace 10% of Diesel fuel Exploitation of innovation and research results Hydrogen from Biomass 25 Wind Energy 26

14 Wind Energy Growth in EU Top Total Installed Capacity [MW] EU 25: 40,504 MW Annual Electricity Production: ca.83 TWh Germany Spain Denmark Italy UK Netherlands Portugal Austria From: EWEA - European Wind Energy Association 27 Wind Energy World Wide 2005 Japan 2,1% China 2,1% UK 2,3% Italy 2,9% Denmark 5,3% 28 India 7,5% Netherlands 2,1% USA 15,4% From: WWEA - World Wind Energy Association Others 12,4% Germany 31,1% MW Spain 16,9% Total: 59,322 MW EU 25: 40,504 MW

15 Electricity Production and Wind Energy 2005 Annual Electricity Production from Wind 2005 Total: ca. 120 TWh EU 25: ca.83 TWh Annual Electricity Production Total: 16,000 TWh Wind: ca. 120 TWh (0.75%) EU 25 Total Electricity: TWh Wind: ca.83 TWh (2.8%) 29 Photovoltaic 30

16 World PV Cell/Module Production PV Production [MW] United States Japan Europe Rest of World A new Economic Force: Environmental Technologies! PV in EU25: 40,000 Jobs From PV News, Paul Maycock, editor; yearly February editions. 31 Accumulated Installed EU-25 + CCs Cumulative installed capacity [MW] ,1 0, ,001 DE ES NL IT FR LU AT UK EL SE FI PT DK BE CY CZ PL IE SI HU SK LT MA LV EE CR BU RO TR From: Eurobarometer 32

17 Surface area needed to reach 1 % of the national electricity consumption with Photovoltaics 2,00 1,80 1,60 PV modules [m 2 /capita] 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 AT BE CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT SE SI SK UK Generation costs of solar electricity from large central PV power station (5 MWp) EU25 Average Electricity Price system costs: 4 eur/wp capital investment payback time: 20 years interest rate: 3% inflation: 2% yearly maintenance costs 1% of the investment mounting at an optimum angle 34

18 EU Projections up to Installed Capacity if 2001 to 2005 growth rates can be maintained > 10 GWp Cumulative Installed Capacity [MWp] Growth Rate Required for White Book Target 36% White Book Target 3GWp 2006 estimates Electricity generated from RES in EU Electricity generation [TWh] Wind Biowaste Photovoltaics Biomass Biogas Geothermal

19 10000 White Paper-Targets Electricity Generation TWh by three Renewable Electricity Sources 1000 Wind EU Biomass-E EU Bio- Electricity Target 10 Wind World 2010 Wind Target EUR 25 1 PV World PV EU Photovoltaic Target EUR 25 0, RES power capacity [GW] EU 25 US Developing countries China Japan India Germany Spain Small hydro Wind Biomass Geothermal PV Solar thermal electricity 38

20 Direct Generation Costs Biomass co-firing Biowaste Biomass Biogas Geothemal electricity Solar themal electricity Photovoltaics Wind offshore Wind onshore cent / kwh 39 Renewables: Trends (RefSys) EU targets 2010 (12% of all Energy, 21% of Electricity) probably reached with current trends: Wind: by 2005/6 PV: by 2007 Biomass slow, major impact expected from Biofuel directive Revision of RES-E Directive A RES-Heat Directive? Energy source with decreasing cost-trend 40

21 The questions we will try to answer with our Reference System are: Not anymore How much Renewables will COST But: How much will Renewables SAVE How much the new economy will GROW 41