How Can California Keep Up With Its Growth? Michael Woo Dean, College of Environmental Design Cal Poly Pomona

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1 How Can California Keep Up With Its Growth? Michael Woo Dean, College of Environmental Design Cal Poly Pomona

2 California s astounding pace of growth M M M M

3 Housing affordability and logismcs jobs expected to sustain Inland Empire growth Riverside and San Bernardino populamon expected to growth from 4 million to 5 million between 2008 and 2015

4 Inland Empire expected to conmnue to lead California populamon growth, with Riverside County growing from 2 million to 4.73 million by 2050 and San Bernardino County growing from 2.5 million to 3.66 million.

5 Riverside San Bernardino named namon s most sprawling metro area (2002) - - More than 66% of the populamon lives over 10 miles from a central business district - - Only 28 percent of Riverside residents live within one half block of any business or insmtumon - - Less than one percent of Riverside s populamon lives in a community with enough density to be effecmvely served by transit

6 Storm clouds ahead: Inland Empire has one of the lowest rates of educamonal a`ainment in the state, with the number of adults holding B.A.s rising only from 19% to 21% by 2015.

7 With jobs requiring college degrees going elsewhere, Inland Empire concentrates lower- wage jobs: IE average annual wage ($36,924) ranking next to last of 51 U.S. metro areas In 2006

8 Housing/jobs imbalance: Not enough job growth to prevent large percentage of local residents (30%) commumng long distances (outside county) to work (of the 20 most populous U.S. counmes, only Brooklyn and Queens boroughs have higher percentage of workers commumng outside their county

9 We consume too much, we import too much, and we produce too li`le, and we export too li`le. - - Bruce Katz, Brookings InsMtuMon, on what s wrong with the U.S. economy

10 What would it take to fill the shipping containers going back to the Port of L.A. with products for export designed and manufactured in the Inland Empire instead of sending most of them back empty?

11 Create knowledge- based jobs building upon the complex of colleges and universimes already located in the Inland Empire.

12 An example: Southern California Edison moving the core of its transmission and distribumon engineering staff to InnovaMon Village on University- owned land across the street from the main Cal Poly Pomona campus.

13 What kind of land use and transportamon pa`erns will appeal to knowledge- based workers?

14 Huge Shift in Age of Population Growth Income Earners & Taxpayers Under % 61.4% 11.1% Under % 38.9% 29.7% Demographic data and analysis provided courtesy Frank Wen, SCAG

15 - - The future for aging boomers and younger immigrants and their - - Growth concentrated in and 55+ ages children is linked - - Immigrants and their children and grandchildren replace boomers in the age groups

16 The U.S. will have a likely surplus of 22 million large- lot homes that s houses built on a sixth of an acre or more by That's roughly 40 percent of the large- lot houses in existence today. Our housing policy has to be amended to reflect our changing preferences. - - Professor Arthur Nelson, Director of Metropolitan Research at the University of Utah

17 Rising demand for new housing types More demand for small- lot detached and a`ached residences Declining demand for large- lot detached houses Trend towards compacmon of non- residenmal uses driven by increasing transport costs

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19 What does density look like? dwelling units/acre

20 What does density look like? dwelling units/acre

21 What does density look like? dwelling units/acre

22 What does density look like? dwelling units/acre

23 California s leadership role on climate policy (AB 32 & SB 375)

24 A`acking the #1 source of greenhouse AB 32 commits California to rolling back GHG emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020 Cars and light trucks are the largest single source of GHG emissions (38 40% of statewide total) SB 375 sets process for ambimous yet achievable regional targets to be defined in Sept gas emissions

25 SB 375 an opportunity to plan for transit- ready communimes which don t foreclose future opmons for mobility

26 Are AB 32 and SB 375 bad for business or job killers which undermine the economic recovery?

27 And, in closing, don t forget the connecmon between current events and our individual consumer choices.