Update on Transmission Planning for Wind Power in the Upper Midwest

Transcription

1 Update on Transmission Planning for Wind Power in the Upper Midwest The Road to Market Quarterly Meeting September 15, 2005 Regional Studies that include Significant Amounts of New Wind Power CapX 2020 Wind Generation Outlet Buffalo Ridge Incremental Generation Outlet SW MN to Twin Cities 345 kv MISO Exploratory Studies MISO MTEP-06 Dakotas Wind Transmission Study Access Initiative Wisconsin Minnesota Wind Integration Study Ongoing Work 2 WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

2 CapX Transmission planning study; 15 year horizon Utilities participating: Central Minnesota Municipal Power Agency Background CapX Formed Spring 2004 Eight utility partners Focused on serving growing load in our service territories; generation outlet, reliability, market efficiency Collaborative effort; utilities, regulators, legislators, and other stakeholders CapX 2020 Vision Study completed 15 year high level plan Integrated multiple planning studies Detailed studies completed on first anticipated projects Moving to implementation Project Group 1 CapX Transmission Development Partners 4 WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

3 Cap X planning is focused on high voltage regional grid expansion MISO MTEP Big Stone II CapX TIPS State Biennial Plan 500 kv 345 kv 230 kv 161 kv 115 kv 69 kv 41.6 kv 34.5 kv Regional Local 5 Cap X planning integrates regional and local planning activities MTEP CapX 2020 Study NW Exploratory Study NI/SMN Exploratory Study Exploratory Study C MISO Baseline Reliability Study Utility Studies Utility Studies Utility Studies Utility Studies 6 WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

4 CapX plans accommodate 2400 MW of wind generation in support of REO 7 Modeling resulted in sequenced list of transmission projects for development Process Three different generation scenarios were modeled Required transmission assessed for each scenario Many facilities common for all three scenarios Established sequence for Project Groups Capital cost estimated $2.3B System Modeling Project Group 1 8 WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

5 Project Groups established by timing and priority of needs Project Group Expected CON Filing Expected In-Service Group I CON to be filed within one year Big Stone II Transmission Buffalo Ridge Outlet Buffalo Ridge Metro 345 Boswell Wilton 230 Fargo Alexandria Benton County 345 Prairie Island Rochester LaCrosse 345 * Group II Around the Twin Cities Forbes - Arrowhead Benton County Chisago 345 Benton County Granite Fall 345 Benton County St Boni 345 Arrowhead Chisago 345 Group III Remote Generation Outlet Antelope Valley Jamestown Maple River 345 Columbia North LaCrosse 345 Chisago Prairie Island 345 Group IV Remote Generation Outlet Hettinger Ellendale Granite Falls rd qtr 05 1 st qtr 06 1 st qtr 06 1 st qtr 06 4 th qtr 06 1 st qtr Engineering modeling, regional planning, and need analysis established the Group 1 project list. Total Group 1 cost will exceed $600M Groups 2, 3, and 4 have also been forecasted but the project list will evolve as more detailed analysis proceeds. * The Prairie Island Rochester LaCrosse project involves RPU and other utility partners in coordination with CapX. 9 Project Group 1 meets a variety of needs Big Stone II Transmission Driver Big Stone II generation outlet Scope 80 miles (est), 230 kv Expected In-Service 2010 Buffalo Ridge Outlet Driver Buffalo Ridge projects together provide outlet for 1000 MW of wind Scope 50 miles (est), 115 kv Expected In-Service WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

6 Project Group 1 meets a variety of needs (cont) Buffalo Ridge Metro Area Driver Buffalo Ridge projects together provide outlet for 1000 MW of wind Scope 180 miles (est), 345 kv Expected In-Service Project Group 1 meets a variety of needs (cont) Boswell Wilton Driver Grand Forks and surrounding region reliability Scope 60 miles (est), 230 kv Expected In-Service 2010 Fargo Alexandria Benton Driver Fargo to Central MN regional reliability Scope 170 miles (est), 345 kv Expected In-Service WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

7 Forecasted capital investment Consolidated for all project groups 13 Clear accountabilities have been established by the partners CapX execution strategy Project development is executed by the TDP and its partners Drive cost efficiency through scale, no redundancy, clear definition of support roles and responsibilities Put together projects and get projects built. GRE MRES Transmission Development Partners + CMMPA MP OTP SMMPA Regional (>200KV) transmission planning Coordinate CON development Combined voice regulatory, legislative Facilitate Project Agreements Best practice standards MPC Xcel Asset owners Cost recovery through rates Siting and ROW Engineer and build Operate and maintain 14 WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

8 Incremental Generation Outlet (Xcel) Buffalo Ridge Incremental Outlet Transmission Study for the next increment of wind power (above 825 MW) Investigated feasibility of an Interim Step transmission plan for achieving MW of additional outlet capacity (2008/2009) Evaluated multiple lower voltage options (mainly 115kV) Report completed June 2005, recommends: Nobles Co-Fenton 115 kv #2 Lk Yankton-Marshall 115 kv misc reconductors, rebuilds, substation upgrades, reactive additions Source: Xcel Energy / Excel Engineering WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

9 Generation Outlet Electric Transmission Study Southwest Minnesota-->Twin Cities 345 kv Interest in Buffalo Generation development significantly exceeds post-brigo outlet levels BRIGO Study concluded that next development will need to be higher voltage Losses are very high at 115/161 kv Voltage stability challenging due to high reactive losses MISO Exploratory studies have formulated/tested/revised many conceptual 345 and 500 kv options for Buffalo Ridge and Dakotas generation outlet CapX 2020 Study examined future load-serving & generation needs; concluded extensive EHV additions will be required, including a line from SW MN to Twin Cities Big Stone II interconnection study identified need for 230 kv additions Source: Xcel Energy / Excel Engineering 17 Generation Outlet Electric Transmission Study Southwest Minnesota-->Twin Cities 345 kv 18 Outlet study for southwest Minnesota & eastern South Dakota Buffalo Ridge area generation additions determine MW increase in Buffalo Ridge outlet capability achievable with a 345 kv-class development between southwest Minnesota and the Twin Cities (as suggested by previous studies); gauge the 345 kv development s impact on regional power transfer capabilities; resolve details of the 345 kv line addition s integration into the existing transmission system: A base 345 kv transmission plan will be evaluated, will address delivery of power from the Buffalo Ridge primarily to the Minneapolis/St Paul ( Twin Cities ) load center, and delivery of Big Stone II output to that project s participants. Source: Xcel Energy / Excel Engineering WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

10 19 Source: Xcel Energy / Excel Engineering Generation Outlet Electric Transmission Study Southwest Minnesota-->Twin Cities 345 kv Buffalo Ridge area generation will be assumed to start at a base level of 1200 MW. 500 MW existing wind generation (primarily Chanarambie and Buffalo Ridge) 350 MW new generation, north side of Buffalo Ridge (Yankee, Brookings, Toronto) 350 MW of new generation, south side of Buffalo Ridge (Fenton, Nobles Co) Outlet capability will be determined by technical analyses performed under traditional planning methods, criteria, and assumptions. Performance characteristics to be addressed: Steady-state performance (powerflow), Dynamic stability,voltage stability Constrained interface ( flowgate ) impacts, Losses Possible enhancements/revisions to the Base Plan to be tested: Double circuit construction, Series compensation, Twin Cities (eastern terminus) optimization, Improvements to underlying (lower-voltage) system facilities Principal System Alternative: Granite Falls-Twin Cities 345 kv Studied scheduled to be complete November WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

11 Northwest Exploratory Study - MISO High level study of increasing the transmission capability to deliver power from new generation sources in North and South Dakota to the Minnesota Twin Cities market. New generation: 1500 MW wind, 500 MW coal Primary conclusions: Line conversions didn t add much capability A single circuit cross system addition at 345 kv should add around 800 MW of new transfer capability. A single 500 kv cross system line will not add a significant amount of additional capability above that of a 345 kv line the underlying system can t support the increased flows. A two line 345 or 500 kv cross system plan should be sufficient to add around 2000 MW of new thermal capability WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

12 23 MISO 2006 Transmission Expansion Plan (MTEP 06) Principles 1. Make the benefits of a competitive energy market available to customers by providing access to the lowest possible electric energy costs 2. Provide a transmission infrastructure that safeguards local and regional reliability 3. Support state and federal renewable energy objectives by planning for access to all such resources, and 4. Make available to state and federal energy policy makers transmission system scenarios and models to provide context and inform the choices they face MISO 2006 Transmission Expansion Plan (continued) 24 Scope 2011 Horizon Inputs Stakeholder, Appendix A, Models, Con files, Operational data Effectiveness of Planned Projects Steady-State powerflow, Dynamic stability simulations, Voltage stability screening, Load Deliverability, Small-signal stability Effectiveness of Proposed Projects Selected tests for issues which remain after Phase 1 Optimization of Reliability Solutions Identify Opportunities for More Efficient Dispatch - economic removal of constraints Identification of Commercially Beneficial Regional Expansions Provide Information Relative to Expectations of FTR Coverage Under the Propose Regional Plan Schedule Started August 2005; scheduled completion June WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

13 MTEP06 Scope Input MTEP 03 (June 2003) highlighted benefits to energy costs of significant regional transmission MTEP 05 (May 2005) focused on ensuring plans to maintain reliability are being developed and advanced select regional concept plans Goal for future MTEP: balance efforts of reliability assurance with efficient plan integration, and more identification / development of regionally beneficial projects 25 Reliability Reliability Commercial Commercial TOs Test all Report MISO Roll-up Test NERC Regional View 200 kv + Limit duplication 26 WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

14 Reliability Reliability Commercial Commercial MISO TOs MP Constraint relief / lower production cost NW regional projects IA MN WI regional projects S. IL S. IN W. KY regional projects 27 Process Reliability MTEP06 Process / Timeline Test Reliability Determine Reliability Projects Constraint Relief Identify additional cost effective projects to relieve higher cost constraints Identify beneficiaries Recommend cost responsibility Finalize Project Set and Cost Responsibility Regional / Access Identify additional projects to enable access to new generation resources (Wind, Lignite Coal, Illinois Basin Coal) Identify benefits and beneficiaries Recommend cost responsibilities Policy File RECB File RECB Economic? June 05 December 05 June WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

15 Dakotas Wind Transmission Study (WAPA) 29 Placement of 500 MW of new wind power in North and South Dakota and associated transmission Study Scope: Analyze Non-Firm Transmission Potential Assess Potential of Transmission Technologies Study Interconnection Study the Delivery to Market 30 WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

16 Access Initiative (Wisconsin) 31 American Transmission Company Evaluating transmission investments to improve transfer capability into (and within) ATC Focused on economic issues (including those arising from MISO Day 2 Market) and reliability Scenarios to date have included 1500 MW of new wind generation in Iowa and Minnesota Additional wind scenarios will be developed including wind development within Wisconsin 32 ATC Access Initiative WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

17 Legislation MN Wind Integration Study 33 Minnesota Laws 2005, Chapter 97, Article 2, Sec. 6 all electric utilities, as defined in Minnesota Statutes, section 216B.1691, subdivision 1, paragraph (b) [REO requirements] an engineering study of the impacts on reliability and costs associated with increasing wind capacity to 20 percent of Minnesota retail electric energy sales by the year 2020 identify and develop options for utilities to use to manage the intermittent nature of wind resources The reliability administrator shall manage the study process.. completed by November 30, 2006 Preliminary Schedule MN Wind Integration 34 Develop Study Scope September 2005 Develop & Issue RFP for Study Contractor Complete Selection of Study Contractor October November Complete Study Dec 05 to Nov 06 WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,

18 Key Questions & Issues MN Wind Integration Wind generation to be studied? How much (MW); Where (e.g. wind resources, interconnection queues, proposed projects, etc); What type (e.g. transmission connected / distribution connected)? What are the technical and economic characteristics of the projected wind generation? Should multiple penetration levels be studied? Nameplate Wind (MW) 6,250 6,000 5,750 5,500 5,250 5,000 4,750 4,500 4,250 4,000 3,750 3,500 3,250 3,000 2,750 Projected Wind Capacity % of MN Retail Sales (2.0% annual growth) Year 2. Year & generation mix to be studied? Legislation calls for 2020; Power system models (e.g. PROMOD, PSS/E, etc) are available for 2011; Results are sensitive to system generation assumptions. Should multiple generation scenarios be studied? 25% 20% 15% Key Questions & Issues (continued) Types of impacts to be studied could include: a. Operating impacts / ancillary services (e.g. regulation, load following, unit commitment, etc) b. Reliability impacts (e.g. Loss of Load Expectation, capacity value) c. Markets impacts (e.g. regional Locational Marginal Prices, system congestion) d. Transmission system impacts (e.g. delivery, ability to absorb operating impacts from variability) e. Interconnection impacts (e.g. system protection, voltage regulation, transient & dynamic stability) 4. Types of solutions to be identified and developed could include: a. Wind forecasting / System operating strategies (e.g. short term redispatch) b. Balancing area consolidation / Dynamic scheduling/ Aggregation benefits c. Market rules / Reserve sharing rules d. Power system design strategies / Generation expansion planning / Price responsive load 5. Basis for comparison? What are the comparable impacts of other forms of generation, other loads, and other consumers of ancillary services? 6. How can multiple study questions and issues be balanced and focused in order to achieve a manageable study schedule and budget? WOW Quarterly Meeting - September 15,