Impacts and Risks from High-End Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions

Transcription

1 Impacts and Risks from High-End Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions Timothy Carter Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE (on behalf of the Consortium) Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union Contract Number:

2 IMPRESSIONS Despite the Paris agreement, current emissions trends highlight that high-end scenarios are still very plausible. However, there are few studies that assess: their potential impacts, the ability of adaptation options to reduce vulnerabilities, and the potential synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. Thus, IMPRESSIONS aims to: advance understanding of the consequences of high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios, and work with decision-makers to explore how such knowledge can be applied within integrated adaptation and mitigation plans.

3 Multi-scale: 5 case studies Global and Central Asia case studies European case study 3 regional/local case studies (Scotland, 2 Iberian catchments, 2 Hungarian municipalities)

4 Developing integrated scenarios Why integrated scenarios? Set of plausible climate and socio-economic future outlooks up to 2100 which provide the challenging context within which future decisions on mitigation and adaptation must be developed and implemented. Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): Regional extensions of a global set of socio-economic scenarios to cover a wide range of uncertainties. RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): Future emissions outcomes that influence the climate Paired with SSPs

5 Modelling climate change impacts Large range of climate change impact models across case studies (>20). Multi-scale modelling framework that links climate change impacts across scales (global to European to regional). Cross-sectoral modelling to better understand how impacts in one sector affect another sector.

6 Designing integrated solutions Where we want to be: Vision Pathway A Pathway B Where we are today: Baseline Shortfall: Additional actions (A, M & T) Where we might get: Pathway (A & M) Ultimate aim is to identify sustainable solutions that take account of climate change adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development Where we re heading: RCP x SSP

7 Shared Vision for Europe

8 Scenarios and impacts for Europe RCP4.5 Climate change (HadGEM/RCA4) ΔT ( C) δp (%) RCP8.5 Example impacts Vulnerability to water scarcity in European river basins for SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5 in the 2080s (CC is coping capacity)

9 Transformative solutions Sub-European case studies Healthy and sustainable lifestyles (Hungary, Iberia and Scotland) Sustainable water management (Hungary and Iberia) Integrated environmental planning and resource management (Scotland, Iberia) Inclusive and multi-level government/governance for sustainability (Hungary) Local community empowerment (Scotland) Central Asia Transboundary water governance Regional connectivity (internally and with neighbours) Europe A transformational accounting framework (natural capital, well-being, social equity) Contentment with living with less (requires education)

10 Policy recommendations Europe Develop a long-term sustainability vision (common European goal) Set up task force to integrate sustainability into the education system Adaptation has limits; continue strong efforts to meet Paris agreement Strengthen coping capacity by reducing inequality and investing in human, social and natural capital Encourage adoption of Beyond GDP accounting by countries Counter trade-off between sustainable farming and loss of forests Invest in creating connected habitat networks to promote species migration Game-changers 1. Green growth 2. Full-cost pricing to increase public investment 3. Towards a sustainable economy 4. Local resilient communities

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