6.1 Analysis of Existing Employment Land Supply Local Municipalities

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1 6. Land Supply 6.1 Analysis of Existing Employment Land Supply Local Municipalities This section discusses employment land supply in Halton with an emphasis on vacant land and future land supply. The discussion notes the attributes of employment lands in the four Halton municipalities, focussing on general characteristics and competitive factors such as zoning, site servicing, and access to transportation. The more urban south Halton municipalities of Oakville and Burlington currently accommodate a comparatively larger proportion of commercial uses than Milton and Halton Hills (which are further north, contain more rural areas, and are visibly dominated by industrial development). The land supply in each Halton municipality is discussed below, followed by an overview of the main factors that influence the competitiveness of vacant land supply across the Region. Oakville The employment lands in the older parts of Oakville have developed along the QEW and the Highway 403 link, indicating the importance of highway connectivity to such facilities (Figure 6.1). Very few vacant parcels remain on these lands, as can be seen in Table 6.1, with the exception of the Winston Park West lands and the Burloak lands. As the Winston Park West lands are not currently serviced, the only district with a range of serviced vacant parcels is the Burloak district. As of December 2007, the overall amount of vacant and occupied land in Oakville is estimated to be as follows. Table 6.1 Oakville Employment Lands Supply Occupied Vacant Total Existing districts 1, ,446 North Oakville East West and Sixteen Hollow Total 1, Source: Economic Development, Town of Oakville Official Plan and Zoning The last review of employment lands was undertaken for Oakville in 2000, and employment lands are being reviewed again as part of the current Official Plan Review. The 2000 review resulted in a rationalization and simplification of the Official Plan and Zoning categories into the following: Official Plan: Light Employment (E1 Zoning) General Employment (E2 Zoning) Transitional Employment (T1 Zoning) 76 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

2 Figure Distribution of Employment Lands in Oakville Source: Official Plan, Town of Oakville Constraints The Winston Park West lands were designated for employment through an Official Plan amendment in 1997, but the lands are still not serviced. Servicing of the southern part can proceed, but the northern part of the business park requires construction of the watermain on Dundas Street, which will occur as part of the servicing for the residential subdivisions north of Dundas Street. New employment areas have been designated in north Oakville along Highway 407, and these lands are not serviced. For the lands west of Sixteen Mile Creek, a secondary plan is being prepared for the two employment land areas named 401 West and Sixteen Hollow. It is expected that 250 hectares of employment land will be designated in the secondary plan. For the lands east of Sixteen Mile Creek, it is expected that servicing will be provided after the residential lands in north Oakville are serviced, as the services have to been installed through the residential area first. There are approximately 300 hectares of employment land in this area. Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 77

3 Burlington The employment lands in the older parts of Burlington are along the QEW and Highway 403 (Figure 6.2). Newer employment lands are in the vicinity of Burloak Drive and Upper Middle Road the Bronte Creek Business Park, and along Highway 407 the Alton Business Park. A new employment district has been identified in the northeast corner of Burlington at Tremaine and Highway 407, but a secondary plan has not been prepared for the district. The amount of occupied and vacant land is: Table 6.2 Burlington Employment Lands Supply Occupied Vacant Total Existing districts ,267 Alton district Total Source: Economic Development, City of Burlington The data in the table is from the Burlington Economic Development Corporation (BEDC), however, the amount of occupied land quoted is taken from the Sustainable Halton report on Land Supply. The BEDC provided information on the variety of parcel sizes that are available, and in comparison to the other municipalities, the parcel size is generally small, less than 5 hectares. Official Plan and Zoning A review of employment lands was undertaken for Burlington in 2002 by Metropolitan Knowledge International as part of the Official Plan Review. Sufficient employment land was found for a 20- year supply, recommended that all employment land in the City be retained, and that there be no re-designations to non-employment uses. It is also recommended that the Office/Business Park designation be changed to either of the other employment land designations; General Industrial or Business Corridor. The new Official Plan (OPA55) was approved by City Council in October 2006; all of the employment lands were retained, and the Office/Business Park designation was removed. A new Zoning By-law was drafted in February 2007 to implement the new Official Plan, but it has not been finally approved at this time. The new by-law removes the old Office/Business Park zones, OP1, OP2 and OP3, and replaces them with business corridor or general industrial zoning. The Zoning categories under the existing zoning are: Office/Business Park (OP1, OP2, OP3) Permitted Uses: office and research facilities. There are relatively minor differences between the zones; the main difference is that OP3 permits hotels and convention centres. Business Corridor (BC1, BC2) Permitted Uses: prestige office and industrial uses. General Industrial (GE1, GE2) Permitted Uses: general industrial and office facilities; the GE2 designation applies to industrial land near residential areas and contains requirements for landscaping and siting buildings to ensure that these land uses do not adversely affect the residential areas. 78 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

4 Figure Distribution of Employment Lands in Burlington Source: Official Plan, City of Burlington Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 79

5 Constraints Water and wastewater servicing is provided by Halton Region. Both the Bronte Creek Business Park and Alton Business Park lands need water services extended before development can occur. Development has started in the Alton residential community, and the water mains are being installed in the residential area, and will be extended to the business park by New servicing is required for the Bronte Creek Business Park. There is no provision for servicing the new business park at Tremaine and 407 at this time. The majority of the land in the Bronte Creek Business park, lands on the south side of Highway 403 between King Road and Waterdown Road, and some lands at Highway 407 and Appleby Line, are all owned by one landowner who does not market or sell the lands for employment uses. This is a constraint for Burlington, and means that there is significantly less land available for employment land development than would appear from the vacant and occupied statistics. Milton Figure 6.3 shows the distribution of employment lands in Milton. The occupied and vacant employment land in Milton is: Table 6.3 Milton Employment Lands Supply Occupied Vacant Total Original Urban Area Phase 1 Employment lands Phase 2 Employment lands Total Source: Economic Development, Town of Milton There is a wide variety of parcel sizes available in the employment lands, including parcels of under a hectare to several large parcels of 10 to 60 hectares, so there is a good choice of land for potential users. Official Plan and Zoning Milton was chosen for significant urban expansion in the Halton Urban Structure Plan of To implement the plan, Official Plan changes were made to the Halton Plan in 1999 and to the Milton Plan in Pre-expansion industrial areas in Milton were located along Highway 401, as well as some small sites along Bronte Road and around the GO station. The main expansion employment land area is known as Phase 1, and is located on the north side of Highway 401 between Highway 25 and James Snow Parkway. Services have recently been extended to the Phase 1 area. The Phase 2 area has been designated south of Highway 401 on the east side of the Milton urban area. The lands are designated in the Official Plan as Employment area, Business Park area and Industrial area. The uses permitted are: Employment area Business Park area entertainment uses Industrial area light industrial uses and office uses, light industrial and office uses, including hotels, restaurants and light and general industrial uses The zoning generally follows the Official Plan designations, with the Employment area zoned Employment Zone EMP, the Business Park area zoned Business Park Zone M1 and the Industrial area has two zones, General Industrial Zone M2 and Extractive Industrial Zone MX. 80 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

6 Some areas are zoned Future Development Zone FD, which is essentially a zone that freezes existing development until further approvals are obtained. Constraints At the present time there are no real constraints on the employment lands in Milton aside from servicing Phase 2 of the business park. If the absorption of lands remains at the current pace, then there could be a shortage of available land within a few years. Figure Distribution of Employment Lands in Milton Source: Economic Development, Town of Milton Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 81

7 Halton Hills Industrial land in Halton Hills is located in the Georgetown Urban Area, the Acton Urban Area, and in the new employment land area in the south of the municipality, along the north side of Highway 401. Employment lands in the urban areas are generally occupied, although much of the land is in small parcels. Halton Hills considers that its most marketable employment lands are located in the newer areas along Highway 401 and 407. The employment corridor is approx 9km long extending from James Snow Parkway to Winston Churchill Boulevard in Georgetown and Acton. Availability of Employment Lands Currently, the amount of vacant and occupied land in Halton Hills is: Table 6.4 Halton Hills Employment Lands Supply Occupied Vacant Total Acton and Georgetown /407 Corridor Serviced land Un-serviced land Total Source: Economic Development, Town of Halton Hills The Highway 401/407 corridor lands have a range of parcel sizes, and with the eastern part of the 401/407 corridor coming on stream in the next few years there is the opportunity to subdivide the land into sizes that are in demand. Official Plan and Zoning The Official Plan, which was approved in September 2006, is currently awaiting approval by Halton Region. In the Official Plan, the designation General Employment is used for the Georgetown and Acton areas, and the designations Gateway and Prestige Industrial are used for the Highway 401/407 corridor. Zoning follows the Official Plan designations. The uses permitted in the gateway and prestige industrial designations of the Highway 401/407 business park are business and professional offices, computer electronics or data processing establishment, exhibition or conference facilities, wholly enclosed industrial and/or manufacturing use, restaurants, research facilities, warehouse use conducted wholly within an enclosed building, telecommunications services, and ancillary and complementary uses. The Gateway Zone also permits hotels. 82 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

8 Figure Employment Lands in Halton Hills Source: Official Plan, Town of Halton Hills Constraints Servicing is constrained in Acton, and new users of vacant industrial land may not be able to obtain sufficient servicing capacity. Full servicing is available in the Georgetown urban area, but there is little excess capacity. The western part of the Highway 401/407 corridor currently has water and wastewater servicing, between James Snow Parkway and Fifth Line. The land between Fifth Line and Trafalgar Road will be serviced in The eastern half of the Highway 401/407 corridor east of Trafalgar Road does not have water and wastewater servicing; any current industrial development there is without services Halton: The Overall Supply Situation As part of the work undertaken for Sustainable Halton, the amount of employment land was documented in Table 6 in the May 2007 Technical Background Report Urban Land Supply by Hemson Consulting. Table 6 is re-produced below. Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 83

9 As a comparison, the information collected in December 2007 for this 2007 Analysis is produced in the same format below so that the numbers can be compared. Between the two tables, there is consistency with the exception of Milton where there is a discrepancy that is probably due to the size of the Phase 2 employment land area. Table 6.5 Ownership Patterns In each of the four area municipalities there are a range of landowners in the employment areas. There are some cases of lands not being available for development, either because the land is not being released, or it is being held for future development (land banking). Although a review of ownership of employment lands was not conducted for this assignment, the Study Team notes 84 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

10 the repeated emphasis and concern of various members of Halton s business community that the supply of lands in Halton are constrained by land banking. There are other significant examples of this type of situation in other areas of the GTA, although the problem appears to be particularly acute in Burlington. As noted above in the Burlington section, large areas are held by a small number of owners or a single developer, hence they are off the market as a result. There is no apparent solution to this problem, aside from the designation of new lands elsewhere, and so the competitiveness of Burlington is reduced. Servicing Issues The growth of many employment areas in Halton has been affected by a lack of servicing. As noted in section 2.3, there was a substantial increase in the pace of growth in Milton in 2004 and in Halton Hills in 2005, and both of these increases were due to new serviced land becoming available. Water and wastewater servicing was extended to the areas north of Highway 401 in 2004, thus opening up significant areas of new employment land. Servicing is a key issue in the availability of employment land in Halton. The Winston Park West Employment Areas in Oakville has been waiting for servicing for 10 years. Some of the land was used for temporary storage of cars for Ford for two years, but no buildings can be erected until water and wastewater servicing is extended to the area.. Oakville is also waiting for the lands north of Dundas Street to be serviced, and has been waiting and discussing servicing schemes for several years. Businesses have been interested in locating in the area, particularly when Highway 407 was opened on the northern boundary of the area. In 1998 an Official Plan and Zoning Amendment was approved to allow an industry into the Highway 407 West area (Zenon Environmental/GE Water & Process Technologies) as it could operate without servicing. New employment areas have been designated in northeast Oakville along Highway 407, and these lands also do not have servicing. These employment lands have to wait until the residential lands in north Oakville are serviced, as the services have to been installed through the residential area first. These servicing constraints mean that the availability of a range of types of parcels of employment land in Oakville will continue to be constrained. Burlington has generally had serviced employment lands available. Some new employment areas have had to wait a few years for services to be extended, for example, the land along Highway 407 in the Alton community has been waiting for servicing to be extended through the Alton residential area. In Halton Hills servicing has been a constraint and will continue to be a constraint. In Acton, new servicing is being investigated, but in the meantime the vacant parcels of employment land are for dry industry only. In Georgetown there is virtually no vacant land. The only supply of new employment land in Halton Hills is the area along Highway 401, which was serviced two years ago. Previously Halton Hills effectively had no available employment land because of the servicing constraint. A similar situation occurred in Milton. Milton had virtually no residential or employment land growth until 2001 because there was no servicing available. As a result of the Halton Urban Structure Plan, Milton was chosen for significant urban expansion, and new residential and employment areas are now developing. Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 85

11 Summary Since the amount of vacant land is substantial and therefore broadly comparable between these municipalities, the quality of the supply in different municipalities becomes important in determining its attractiveness. Considering both geography and the dominance of industrial uses, Halton Hills and Milton s northern locations put them in direct competition with Brampton, Caledon and Vaughan. Oakville and Burlington, on the other hand are most influenced by the location advantages that Mississauga, Brampton and Hamilton offer, both with respect to industrial and commercial development. Transportation access and quality of the 400 series of highways influence the appeal of specific areas from both industrial and commercial perspectives, although the former s reasons may relate primarily to factors such as freight movement and the latter s to employees and proximity to related businesses. All of the employment land in Halton is considered well located and is comparable with Peel and York Regions. By and large, Halton s employment areas allow for easy access of a 400-series highway. The QEW and Highway 407 run through Oakville and Burlington. Oakville is also well connected to Regional Road 25 (Bronte Road), and Burlington with Regional Road 1 (Guelph Line). Highways 401 and 407 are in close proximity to Milton and Halton Hills, which are also well connected to Regional Roads 25, 22 (Tremaine Road), 19 (Winston Churchill Blvd), 7 (Derry Road), 6 (Britannia Road) and 3 (Trafalgar Road). In terms of transportation congestion, Halton Hills and Milton offer a significant advantage over Oakville and Burlington, as supported by Milton s concentration of logistics and transportation firms that require rapid goods movement. Taking into account the high congestion factor in Peel Region, the two south Halton municipalities hold a slightly higher hand, although congestion will likely heighten over time and with future development. Considering both serviced and unserviced land within Halton, Milton currently has the highest amount of designated vacant employment lands (approximately 1,000 hectares), followed closely by Oakville (approximately 830 hectares). Burlington and Halton Hills rank lower, with approximately 460 hectares and 250 hectares respectively. The zoning and Official Plan designations in all four municipalities are sufficiently flexible that a variety of users can be accommodated. There are a variety of parcel sizes in all municipalities, with the exception of Burlington, which has predominantly small parcels. Although the total vacant employment land in each municipality is ideally intended for future development, several factors will likely influence its long-term marketability. Across the Region, it is evident that by and large, new non-retail development will be shaped in newer areas because employment lands in existing areas are relatively built-out. For instance, although Oakville has the highest vacant land supply, only about 20% of land in existing employment districts exists for such development. The same is true for Halton Hills where only 40 hectares remains for development in Georgetown/Acton. Servicing is one of the most obvious constraints to this future development. Already, the current supply of employment land is barely meeting the needs of the market because of the amount of available serviced land that is constrained. The current supply in south Halton is constrained in areas including Winston Park and the Tremaine and Highway 407 Business Park. The availability of land in Burlington (which has the lowest supply in the Region) is further influenced by the presence of a landowner who is not marketing his land. In comparison, there is currently a sufficient supply in Milton and Halton Hills, from the perspective of amount of land, servicing and mixture of landowners. If serviced, the different employment lands in the Region may hold specific appeal for different types of business activity. For instance, Oakville s newer employment areas may be marketed towards industrial users on the basis that they run along Highway 407 and are relatively less 86 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

12 congested. Although Oakville s industrial tax rates are relatively high, its competitive commercial tax rates, land costs, and project costs for commercial development (when compared to Peel Region) could also lend strength to strategies geared at attracting commercial development to these areas. Similarly, Burlington s land prices, commercial and industrial tax rates and DCs are highly competitive with Peel, and could be marketed to attract both industrial and commercial users to the vacant employment lands along Upper Middle Road and Highway 407. In Halton Hills, the appeal of uncongested highway access is augmented by land prices that are noticeably lower than some Peel and York municipalities and taxes and DCs that are comparable with Caledon. Milton s continued appeal for the logistics and warehousing sector too benefits from its relatively uncongested highway access and low land costs and competitive tax rates, although the municipality s discounted development are higher than most municipalities. Overall, servicing of employment areas has been, and continues to be a primary issue for Halton Region. Several employment areas have been approved in local plans for development, but without servicing development cannot happen. In order to have a greater availability of competitive employment lands, servicing needs to be addressed. Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 87

13 Figure 6.5 Employment Lands in Halton Region Note: North Oakville lands not shown on GIS layer provided 88 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

14 6.2 Competitive Position in Availability of Lands Employment lands in the GGH cover an enormous range of geography and built form. Highrise office towers are located at major highway interchanges and business parks throughout the 905 regions. Toronto s employment areas are virtually built out with a very wide range of industrial and other uses; a few major employment areas have made the transition to offices or residential districts. In the Outer Ring 16, employment areas range from resource extraction areas in rural municipalities to lands used as prestige business parks, large manufacturing uses, and R&D parks in urban settings such as Barrie, Waterloo, and Guelph. Within this context, all municipalities are struggling to preserve and in many cases expand the amount of employment land available in order to meet anticipated employment growth over the next twenty years. As outlined earlier in this report, however, the GGH is in the midst of a time of considerable economic change; its traditional manufacturing base is eroding in the face of powerful economic headwinds, wholesale trade and warehousing uses are growing but at significantly lower employment densities, and the shift to a service-based economy continues with particularly rapid growth in business services, retail, and related sectors. The distribution of the current supply of vacant employment lands in the GGH varies widely Table 6.6 Vacant Employment Lands in the GGH, 2006/2007 Source: Municipal economic development and planning staff, municipal inventories, current employment lands studies 16 The Outer Ring refers to municipalities located in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, as defined by the Provincial Growth Plan, but outside the Greater Toronto Area. The full list of these municipalities includes the Counties of Brant, Dufferin, Haldimand, Kawartha Lakes, Niagara, Northumberland, Peterborough, Simcoe, Waterloo, Wellington, and the separated Cities within them. For the purpose of this study, several Outer Ring municipalities are of particular interest as they are increasingly in competition with Halton Region in particular the Region of Waterloo, Wellington County (City of Guelph). Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 89

15 among municipalities. With no central source of vacant land information, and inventories conducted only periodically at the time of a relevant planning study, any comparison of vacant supply among areas is a moving target. However, MKI maintains a database of employment land supply data based on the most recent primary or secondary source available. Table 6-1 shows the vacant supply of employment lands for the comparator municipalities for this study. It should be noted that this list reflects the vacant supply at the time of reporting of these sources (generally 2007; some date to 2006 and a few to 2005). It is extremely important to note, however, that a large figure in terms of total inventory can be misleading, as the supply may include many parcels that are not particularly suitable for modern employment uses. For example, although Mississauga s supply shown above is substantial at 1,117 hectares, the supply consists of many smaller parcels scattered throughout the municipality. Although many are highly desirable due to their location, only a relatively small proportion of the supply consists of large parcels suitable for major users. This analysis focuses on Halton s competitive position with regards to other areas of the GGH. The data show that Halton competes more directly with some areas more than others. Simple geography and the strength of the west GTA market suggest that firms considering Halton are likely to consider Peel Region and potentially the City of Hamilton. Increasingly, land costs are driving firms to look further west than the GTA, making Wellington County (Guelph) and Waterloo Region (Kitchener, Cambridge, and Waterloo) more direct competitors. Finally, York Region (particularly Vaughan) is also likely to be a significant competitor due to its location and availability of industrial land. As listed above, Halton Region has 2,771 net hectares of vacant employment land. The land supply analysis completed as part of the Sustainable Halton Plan estimated that there is about 18 years supply available as of mid Absorption in the Region has averaged 70 net ha annually from 2001 to 2006, and the Milton Phase 2 business park is forecast to be built out in 20 years (Milton Phase II Business Park, Background Analysis, 2008) Peel Region has about 3,600 hectares available; while the City of Hamilton has roughly 1,000 net hectares of vacant employment land. The urban municipalities in York Region had approximately 2,000 hectares vacant as of 2005 (the number is likely closer to 1,700 today); however, servicing constraints encumber a significant portion of this supply. The three urban centres in Waterloo Region have only approximately 790 hectares of vacant land between them, while Guelph has some 672 hectares. Brantford reports having almost no employment land available at this time. The distribution of vacant employment lands in the most direct competitor areas is as follows: Peel Region s vacant employment lands are widely distributed through existing employment areas in Brampton, in three employment areas in Mississauga, and in the Bolton industrial park in Caledon. Peel has an extensive supply of lands with roughly 3,600 net hectares vacant as of mid A new employment area is about to come on stream near the Brampton border in Caledon (Mayfield West). The bulk of the supply is well served by 400- series highways, as outlined in the table below. In terms of the local municipalities: o Mississauga has approximately 1,100 net ha remaining but is heavily fragmented; build out means no additional supply available; supply constraints already affecting competitiveness (Source: 2007 Vacant Lands Inventory, Peel Employment Lands Study 2005). o Brampton approx. 2,000 net ha as of 2006; sufficient supply for >20 years (Source: Brampton Staff) o Caledon less than 3 years available currently; addition of Mayfield lands will create >20 year supply (Source: Caledon Employment Lands Study 2007) 90 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

16 In York Region, the lands most directly competitive with Halton are those in Vaughan, which has extensive vacant employment lands located to the east of Highway 50, north of Highway 7. These lands represent a significant cluster of potential industrial expansion but are limited by the lack of expressway access, and other servicing issues, at the moment. In Markham and Richmond Hill, vacant lands along Highway 404 provide extensive high profile sites but are relatively expensive. Further north on Highway 404, significant vacant areas exist in the Town of Aurora (Wellington/Highway 404 Employment Area) and Newmarket (Mulock and Leslie South employment areas). Serious servicing constraints limit development in some areas of the Region. Although the overall supply in the Region is equivalent to about 16 years worth of absorption; constraints on supply mean the usable supply is more like 10 years (Source: York Region Employment Lands Inventory 2006) Hamilton s vacant employment lands are located in various industrial areas and business parks. Historically, the access of employment lands with excellent freeway access was limited by the lack of a north-south connection in the east part of the City, but with the completion of the Red Hill Valley Project, a new expressway link now provides good border access from the North Glanbrook business park, the Mountain Business Park, and potential future employment areas near Hamilton airport. This will improve the competitiveness of Hamilton s lands and there is evidence already of an increased pace of industrial development in areas such as the Stoney Creek Business Park (Hamilton Economic Development reports 500,000 square feet of speculative industrial development in this area alone since late 2006). Today, there is about 10 years supply, but the new lands in Airport area will expand this considerably (Source: Hamilton Employment Lands Study, 2007) Waterloo Region s employment lands are distributed throughout the Region. Although few municipally owned parcels remain, the Region has traditionally had municipally-led economic development. As of the end of 2006, roughly 75% of the total inventory of 1,300 vacant hectares is serviced. Cambridge has the bulk of available employment lands at about 400 hectares, concentrated near and along Highway hectares are available in Kitchener, also concentrated along Highway 401 near the Highway 8 interchange, and near the Waterloo Regional Airport. Waterloo has 154 hectares spread among several areas. From a competitiveness perspective, lands near Highway 401 in Kitchener and Cambridge are likely to be the most directly comparable to those in Halton Region. However, as Waterloo Region is dependent on groundwater sources, there are servicing constraints that may limit water services to these lands. In Guelph and Wellington County, recent decisions have brought considerably more employment lands into the development pipeline. Guelph has some 672 hectares of supply, concentrated in the York District and an employment reserve in South Guelph. While all areas are served by King s Highway 6 and not a 400-series highway, the relative lack of traffic congestion in Guelph leads to considerably more reliable transportation conditions in these areas than in the GTA. Toronto is built out to its boundaries and has no new greenfield employment areas possible; approximately 550 hectares of supply remain at this point; this is 20 years supply in theory but fragmentation and the unique nature of Toronto market means effective supply is much less (Source: Long-Term Employment Lands Strategy, 2006) Durham has approximately a 21-year supply of lands available, including the proposed new Central Pickering (Seaton) employment area along Highway 407. (Source: Growth Plan Conformity exercise, 2007) For virtually all competitor municipalities, a substantial supply of employment lands exists that can compete with Halton, although servicing constraints limit the pace at which lands in certain areas can be brought on stream. In Peel and York Regions, large supplies are available but are further constrained to some extent by highway congestion. In contrast, Hamilton s lands are located in areas where traffic congestion is a lesser concern, but travel times to intermodal facilities and the broader GTA market are longer. However, the development of a major new employment area at Hamilton Airport, which is anticipated to take about 5-7 years to come on stream, will create a significant competitive challenge for Halton Region. Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 91

17 Guelph and Waterloo Region also have extensive inventories of vacant land but are more remote from the GTA and some of the supply (in the City of Waterloo and City of Guelph) has less direct access to the Provincial expressway network. Despite the large supplies available elsewhere, Halton could be considered to be well positioned. It continues to have a relatively large supply of lands, although availability is concentrated in Milton and North Oakville. These lands have good highway access and are relatively close to intermodal facilities, Munro and Pearson airports, the US border, and the GTA market itself. However, as noted in the previous section, a key issue is servicing. While Halton has a relatively large and well located supply of vacant lands, many of these lands are awaiting servicing or face servicing constraints. Servicing Strategies Competitor Areas Servicing strategies vary by local municipality and regional municipality. Waterloo Region front-ending is not common at the Regional level, although some roads project have been expedited for economic development reasons. Staff note that the Region has invested heavily in the Waterloo Regional airport; this was a capital cost to the Region incurred in anticipation of future economic development benefits including industrial and office development in the areas surrounding the airport. The City of Kitchener has a $110 million economic development fund, but the expenditure of this fund has generally been to front-end major public buildings instead of piped infrastructure. By contrast, Cambridge remains generally on a pay-as-you-go approach, funding infrastructure as growth is required from DCs. City of Hamilton Hamilton is currently studying its servicing strategy for the Airport Employment Growth District. The terms of reference for this study include looking at the potential for public-private partnerships to front-end the servicing costs. The City of Hamilton has an economic development objective to ensure fully serviced lands are available to the market. City of Barrie, City of Guelph both municipalities have provided the upfront costs for servicing municipally-owned business parks in the recent past. Guelph is looking at bringing significant new employment areas on stream, including servicing the area; however the servicing strategy has not yet been established. Peel Region Mississauga s lands are almost completely fully serviced; most of Brampton s industrial lands are generally serviced with exception of some areas in the north (Highway 427) these lands remain a significant competitor to lands in Halton. As of summer 2007, approximately half of Caledon s industrial lands in Bolton were serviced; the other half are not. However, a significant employment land supply of 450 acres in Mayfield West has been approved by Secondary Plan and will begin to come on-stream in Although the extension of Highway 410 north of Mayfield Road will not be complete for some time, the extension of Hwy. 410 to the area makes employment areas in north Brampton and south Caledon a highly desirable location. York Region/Durham Region One of the most significant Regional servicing projects in recent years was the York-Durham Sewer System. This joint effort to bring additional wastewater capacity to growth areas was supported by the Province of Ontario. Many of the components of this project are being undertaken by the benefiting land developers groups, using credit agreements for DCs (front-ending by developers). Most local municipalities in York Region do not up-front the cost for servicing areas for economic development reasons, as few have the financial resources to do so without extensive debenturing. Many attempt to piggyback servicing costs for non-residential areas on top of planned servicing to residential areas. 92 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

18 6.3 Demand for Employment Lands in the Greater Golden Horseshoe In general, if there is a problem with the supply of employment lands in the GGH, it is not that the total amount of land is grossly insufficient, but that the supply may not be located where the demand is. The strength of the west GTA employment lands market was documented previously in this report. The forecasts of employment growth contained in Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe account for this trend in assigning relatively higher rates of employment growth to Halton and Peel Regions, and a slower rate of growth to Toronto and Durham Regions. Table 6.7 The Growth Plan s allocations also reflect the growing importance of certain outer ring municipalities as locations for employment growth. As illustrated in Table 6.7, by 2031, the Growth Plan sees Waterloo Region as having roughly the same amount of employment as Halton and Durham Regions, with Simcoe County also growing substantially. However, the allocations above include all types of employment. When employment growth is broken down by type, there are much more significant differences in the anticipated pattern of employment growth. The forecasts that supported the Growth Plan targets break down employment growth by type as follows: Table 6.8 Employment by Type - Greater Toronto Area, Thousands Major Office Population Related Employment Lands Total Toronto York Peel Durham Halton Hamilton Total ,377 Percentage 24% 34% 43% Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd., Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2005 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 93

19 Major Office employment is jobs that are expected to locate in large, freestanding office buildings. Population related employment occurs within communities, in institutional uses such as schools, retail uses, and personal services. Employment Lands employment includes jobs that typically locate in business parks and industrial areas, including manufacturing, warehousing, and office-based jobs that are not in major offices. Clearly, substantial employment lands employment growth is foreseen for York, Peel, and Halton Regions, as well as substantial major office employment. Although this forecasting work did not include publicly-released forecasts of employment growth by type for the Outer Ring municipalities, Simcoe, Waterloo, and Wellington counties are likely to see the most demand. At 60% of overall employment growth on employment lands, Simcoe County (including Barrie) will see 60,000 more jobs on employment lands, Waterloo region 78,000, and Wellington County (including Guelph), 35,000. Although there is currently considerable debate regarding the translation of these job figures into land requirements, it is clear that some regional municipalities do not have sufficient vacant supply to meet demand. York Region is short on land and is faced with serious servicing constraints. Waterloo Region also does not have enough vacant supply to meet demand. Peel also is likely to need further lands but not for some time; however, local shortages are more severe in Mississauga and the Region will shortly be reassessing whether their supply is sufficient. Hamilton is also short on land when the net effective supply is considered; its inventory includes a number of parcels that are likely to be undevelopable due to various constraints. All these municipalities are moving to expand their supply of employment lands (some have new employment areas well along in the planning process). Once these lands are brought on stream, Halton s current competitive advantage could be diminished. By contrast, although there are constraints on the current effective supply within Halton, the North Oakville and HUSP lands provide a solid basis for meeting demand within the Region. As noted above, a range of parcel sizes exist and the lands are well located. The major constraining issue is servicing. Halton s Competitive Position Future Employment Lands Supply As part of the Sustainable Halton Plan, a Land Supply Analysis was conducted that identified a net additional land need of 480 hectares in the Region through This calculation is based on an assumption of employment densities averaging 37.5 jobs per net hectare on employment lands in the Region. It is possible, given that growth in Halton is weighted toward lower-density sectors such as wholesale trade and warehousing (see Chapter 2), that the density of new development on employment lands will be considerably lower than this figure. This could result in substantially higher demand for land than currently forecast. In response, the Region may choose at a future date to pursue urban boundary expansions to designate additional lands. Forecasting future patterns of land development is always a highly risky proposition; so many factors affect the direction and timing of growth that any forecast beyond the current development pipeline period is difficult to attribute much confidence to. Nevertheless, there are certain factors and forces that will likely drive the pattern of land consumption in the GGH over the next two decades, and the path of these trends can be followed to suggest the location of future growth areas, giving some insight into the future competitive landscape for industrial development in Halton. 94 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

20 The relative strength of the west GTA market is likely to change, but it is likely that other areas will catch up to the pace of growth in the West only gradually over coming decades. Among many other reasons, the presence of virtually all major intermodal facilities in inner area of the west GTA will be a focus for the transportation, warehousing, and wholesale trade economies into the future these facilities are not going to move, and construction of any new facilities will take decades to have an impact. For the foreseeable future, demand for land in Peel and Halton will remain very strong. Hamilton will become an increasingly competitive market, especially if servicing and transportation improvements to airport-area lands are brought on stream. The major unknown with regards to this market is the success of Munro Airport in expanding freight throughput. However, transportation congestion represents a real and pressing concern to Halton s future competitiveness. New employment areas in the Region are located along Highways 401 and 407, but are generally served by only one expressway. The impact of growing congestion (already a significant problem in Milton/Halton Hills on Highway 401 and especially in Oakville and Burlington on the QEW) may be a significant deterrent to employment uses. It is likely that it is not only cheaper land that draws certain sectors across the Greenbelt particularly timesensitive ones like those with just-in-time production processes. It can be anticipated that the future will see a further differentiation of employment uses between the area inside the greenbelt and those external to the greenbelt, with firms making trade-offs between central locations and less congested areas outside the greenbelt. It is significant that Toyota s most recent auto assembly plant located in Woodstock, in an area with little to no foreseeable highway congestion. A Major Change The Niagara-GTA and GTA-West Corridors Two projects currently in the planning stage could have a significant impact with regard to Halton s transportation accessibility. The Niagara-GTA (NGTA) corridor is a planning project that is examining options to expand the capacity of the transportation system between Niagara Figure 6.6 Approximate Location of Niagara-GTA and GTA-West Study Areas Overlaid on Schedule 6 of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 95

21 Region and the GTA. The NGTA study area begins in Halton Region and ends at the US border. To the north, an identical study is looking at transportation capacity between the northwest portion of York Region and the Guelph Area, including northern portions of Halton Region (Milton and Halton Hills) north of Highway 401 (as shown in Figure 6.7). These studies will not determine if additional road, rail, or other freight-related facilities will be constructed for some time. However, the potential expansion of transportation capacity through the Region that will result from the implementation of a preferred solution on these corridors will have significant and longlasting positive impact on the competitiveness of the Region. Office Location The long-term pattern of office location is also difficult to foresee. The past ten years has seen office flight to the 905 regions, with the bulk of new office construction occurring at major nodes outside of the City of Toronto, but inside the Greenbelt. More recently, the Toronto office market has seen major new projects announced and a tightening of the Downtown market. Certain office markets in some outer ring areas, such as the Region of Waterloo, have performed well; others such as Hamilton and Niagara have registered very little new office construction. The property tax differential that has driven some of the office flight is likely to continue for backoffice and administrative centres. The relative strength of office-based sectors in most economic forecasts would suggest increasing demand for these uses in all centres. Key to these locations are labour market factors (the location of current or potential future employees). Certainly, outer areas of the GTA and even the Outer Ring have succeeded in attracting office-based uses that formerly would have located in the City of Toronto. Among the examples: The Region of Waterloo s Research and Technology park is attracting significant high-tech development, both due to domestic strengths with anchor firms such as Research in Motion (RIM) and OpenText, and through spin-offs from the University of Waterloo The Bank of Montreal constructed a 250,000 square-foot data centre in Barrie, with 600 employees, replacing a facility at Steeles and Woodbine in the City of Toronto StateFarm insurance constructed a new, 325,000 square-foot Canadian Headquarters in Aurora (York Region), at an interchange on Highway 404 In closing, the most important consideration with regards to future employment lands trends is that geographic trends change slowly. While economic factors can change very quickly, the underlying factors that determine where industrial development occurs involve significant fixed or sunk costs that are very unlikely to change. The location of the existing highway network, of intermodal facilities, and of airports, are not going to change. Though some may expand, and certain new facilities may be constructed, the location of transportation infrastructure is largely fixed. Further, piped servicing usually must be extended through linear, contiguous development to be financially viable. 6.4 Summary The analysis of land supply has several important conclusions: The existing designated vacant supply in the Region is large and well situated, but faces significant servicing constraints to become an effective supply. Ownership patterns and some parcel size constraints limit the effective supply in Burlington and south Oakville. In terms of land availability, Halton municipalities can expect to face increasing competition from expanded employment areas in other west GGH municipalities. Hamilton Airport is 96 Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development

22 likely to be directly competitive with Halton, as are lands in North Brampton and potentially Caledon and newly-proposed lands in Guelph. For certain uses, the location of Halton s supply will allow it to remain a highly competitive location. Proximity to the rest of the GTA market, intermodal facilities, and good highway access will likely mean Halton remains more competitive for distribution uses than other areas. The Niagara-GTA and GTA-West corridors could reshape the Halton supply by creating new transportation capacity in and out of the Region. Halton Region - Competitiveness Study of Office and Industrial Development 97