Analyzing low emissions policy scenarios in an European context:

Transcription

1 Analyzing low emissions policy scenarios in an European context: A contribution to the LinkS project Christian Skar 1, Gerard Doorman 1 and Asgeir Tomasgard 2 NTNU Trondheim Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Electric Power Engineering 1 Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management 2 Annual Conference, November 29 30, 2012 Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 1 / 50

2 Outline 1 Part I Asgeir Introduction to the LinkS project The global climate assessment model (GCAM) Motivation for regional study Power system investment model 2 Part II Christian Analysis of the 650 ppm scenario Analysis of the 450 ppm scenario Conclusion and remarks about the policy study Future work Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 2 / 50

3 What is LinkS? The LinkS project Working (mainly) with long term sustainable energy system development Multi-disciplinary (and integrated) research group Integrated assessment modeling Power market modeling Gas market modeling Regional energy system modeling Scenario analysis Policy analysis Global and regional perspective Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 3 / 50

4 What is LinkS? The LinkS project Working (mainly) with long term sustainable energy system development Multi-disciplinary (and integrated) research group Integrated assessment modeling Power market modeling Gas market modeling Regional energy system modeling Scenario analysis Policy analysis Global and regional perspective Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 3 / 50

5 What is LinkS? The LinkS project Working (mainly) with long term sustainable energy system development Multi-disciplinary (and integrated) research group Integrated assessment modeling Power market modeling Gas market modeling Regional energy system modeling Scenario analysis Policy analysis Global and regional perspective Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 3 / 50

6 What is LinkS? The LinkS project Working (mainly) with long term sustainable energy system development Multi-disciplinary (and integrated) research group Integrated assessment modeling Power market modeling Gas market modeling Regional energy system modeling Scenario analysis Policy analysis Global and regional perspective Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 3 / 50

7 What is LinkS? The LinkS project Working (mainly) with long term sustainable energy system development Multi-disciplinary (and integrated) research group Integrated assessment modeling Power market modeling Gas market modeling Regional energy system modeling Scenario analysis Policy analysis Global and regional perspective Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 3 / 50

8 What is LinkS? The LinkS project Working (mainly) with long term sustainable energy system development Multi-disciplinary (and integrated) research group Integrated assessment modeling Power market modeling Gas market modeling Regional energy system modeling Scenario analysis Policy analysis Global and regional perspective Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 3 / 50

9 Understanding regional impacts of climate targets Waste heat Biomass District heating/cooling HP Industry & Oil Centralized energy supply Electricity Gas Solar Biomass Hydro PV DSM/DR Biomass Wind Wind CHP HP Natural gas Hydrogen Buildings & Transport Biomass Analyze optimal development of the European power system given global GHG emission mitigating strategies. Linking of a global top-down energy/climate model and a regional power system model. Address the feasibility of long-term climate stabilization strategies. Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 4 / 50

10 Interaction between research tasks Global / Climate level Regional / Local Technology level Aggregated annual data (TWh/year) Global Climate & Energy Models Atmospheric composition Climate and Sea level Ecosystems Human activities Short-term stochastic market & system model Regulation & Policy instruments Aggregated annual data (TWh/year) Long-term regional infrastructure model Breakdown and adjusted Energy demand Capacities Technologies Market clearing prices Emissions/Penalties Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 5 / 50

11 Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) I An integrated assessment model developed at The Joint Global Change Research Institute in Maryland. Dynamic recursive partial equilibrium model. Comprises an economic module, an energy system module, an agricultural and land use module and a climate effects module. Essentially models interlinked regional markets and finds an equilibrium solution by adjusting prices. World is modeled as 14 regions and annual demand and supply of energy available in 5 year time steps. Horizon is until Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 6 / 50

12 Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) II From KateCalvin&JaeEdmunds Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 7 / 50

13 Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) III demand Energy System Economy Biomass demand Agricultural & Land Use Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 8 / 50

14 Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) III Primary energy Secondary energy (electricity) End-use demand Energy System Economy Biomass demand Agricultural & Land Use Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 8 / 50

15 Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) III demand Energy System Output Energy use Energy prod. Fuel prices GHG Emiss. Economy Biomass demand Agricultural & Land Use Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 8 / 50

16 Why more detail? (I) Germany France GreatBrit. Italy The rest Spain Sweden Poland Norway Netherlands Finland Austria Switzerland Czech R Greece Romania Portugal Figure : Share of total demand for electricity European countries (WE+EE) 2010 (Source: ENTSO-E) % Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 9 / 50

17 Why more detail? (II) Figure : ECMFW wind field data for Europe (source: European Environment Agency) Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 10 / 50

18 Why more detail? (III) Figure : Average solar irradiation in Continental Europe (source: solargis) Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 11 / 50

19 Load and intermittent resource availability in Spain Load Wind rat. Solar rat. GWh/h Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 12 / 50

20 Load and intermittent resource availability in Spain Load Wind rat. Solar rat. GWh/h Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 12 / 50

21 Load and intermittent resource availability in Spain Load Wind rat. Solar rat. GWh/h Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 12 / 50

22 Load and intermittent resource availability in Spain Load Wind rat. Solar rat. GWh/h Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 12 / 50

23 Interaction between models Power system model Global IAM break down Demand, fuel prices, CO2 prices Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 13 / 50

24 We were picturing the following interaction between our models GCAM WE EE FSU Investment model EMPS (Econ. Dispatch) Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 14 / 50

25 Power system investment model Modeling assumptions Investments are continuous Lines are independent (i.e. no Kirchoff s laws) Independent operational scenarios (e.g. no ramping, simplified storage) Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 15 / 50

26 Structure of investment model The investment model is a fairly standard two-stage stochastic model where Investments in generation capacity and transmission capacity are done in the first stage Uncertainty in availability of intermittent resources and in load are then revealed Second stage decisions, which are production levels, network flows and unserved energy, are then made given the investments. Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 16 / 50

27 Formulation of the investment model The basic formulation of the two-stage stochastic model is: Minimize investment cost and expected operation costs Subject to: Investment bounds (don t let the model go wild) Max/min capacity requirements on generation within GCAM regions Load constraints Flow constraints (basically just upper/lower bounds on lines) Production constraints Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 17 / 50

28 Scenario structure 1 2 T 1 2 T 1 2 T Investment Operation 1 2 T Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 18 / 50

29 Scenario structure 1 2 T Operation given T 1 2 T Investment Operation 1 2 T Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 18 / 50

30 Scenario structure 1 2 T Operation given 1 & T 1 2 T Investment Operation 1 2 T Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 18 / 50

31 Scenario structure 1 2 T 1 2 T 1 2 T Investment Operation 1 2 T Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 18 / 50

32 Second stage problem, node n, year y MC [e/mwh] LL Oil Bio Coal Hydro Gas RES Nuclear Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 19 / 50

33 Second stage problem, node n, year y MC [e/mwh] LL Fixed load Oil Bio Coal Hydro Gas RES Nuclear Import/Export Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 19 / 50

34 Second stage problem, node n, year y MC [e/mwh] LL Uncertainty Fixed load Oil Hydro Gas Coal Bio RES Uncertainty Nuclear Import/Export Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 19 / 50

35 Second stage problem, node n, year y MC [e/mwh] LL Fixed load s 1 Oil Bio Coal Hydro Gas RES Nuclear Import/Export Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 19 / 50

36 Second stage problem, node n, year y MC [e/mwh] LL Fixed load s 1 s 2 Oil Coal Hydro Gas Bio RES Nuclear Import/Export Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 19 / 50

37 Second stage problem, node n, year y MC [e/mwh] LL Fixed load s 1 s 2 s 3 Oil Coal Hydro Gas Bio RES Nuclear Import/Export Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 19 / 50

38 Scenario structure 1 2 T 1 2 T 1 2 T Investment Operation 1 2 T Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 20 / 50

39 Second stage problem, node n, year y + 1 MC [e/mwh] LL Oil Bio Coal Hydro Gas RES Nuclear Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 21 / 50

40 Second stage problem, node n, year y + 1 MC [e/mwh] LL Price Increase Oil Bio Coal Hydro Gas RES Nuclear Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 21 / 50

41 Second stage problem, node n, year y + 1 MC [e/mwh] LL Price Increase Oil Coal Hydro Gas Bio RES Nuclear Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 21 / 50

42 Second stage problem, node n, year y + 1 MC [e/mwh] LL Price Increase Investment Oil Coal Hydro Gas Bio RES Nuclear Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 21 / 50

43 Second stage problem, node n, year y + 1 MC [e/mwh] LL Price Increase Investment Oil Coal Hydro Gas Bio RES Nuclear Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 21 / 50

44 Second stage problem, node n, year y + 1 MC [e/mwh] LL Price Increase Investment Oil Load Increase Coal Hydro Gas Bio RES Nuclear Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 21 / 50

45 Second stage problem, node n, year y + 1 MC [e/mwh] LL Price Increase Investment Oil Load Increase Coal Hydro Gas Bio RES Nuclear Import/Export Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 21 / 50

46 Second stage problem, node n, year y + 1 MC [e/mwh] LL Price Increase Uncertainty Investment Oil Load Increase Coal Hydro Gas Bio RES Nuclear Uncertainty Import/Export Load [MWh] Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 21 / 50

47 Outline 1 Part I Asgeir Introduction to the LinkS project The global climate assessment model (GCAM) Motivation for regional study Power system investment model 2 Part II Christian Analysis of the 650 ppm scenario Analysis of the 450 ppm scenario Conclusion and remarks about the policy study Future work Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 22 / 50

48 650ppm stabilization scenario Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 23 / 50

49 Global emissions and CO 2 concentration 650 ppm 100 GtCO2 emissions per year CO2 concentration [ppm] Ref em Ref cons ppm em 650ppm cons Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 24 / 50

50 European electricity mix reference vs 650ppm TWh/yr Reference TWh/yr 650ppm Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 25 / 50

51 Fuel prices 650 ppm 150 Fuel price [2007$/MMBtu] 400 CO 2 price [2007$/tonne] Oil ref N Gas ref Coal ref Oil 650 N Gas 650 Coal 650 CO Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 26 / 50

52 Regional European electricity mix 650ppm TWh/yr Western Europe TWh/yr Eastern Europe Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 27 / 50

53 Cum. investments generation 2030, 650 ppm Austria Bosnia H Belgium Bulgaria Switzerland Czech R Germany Denmark Estonia Spain Finland France Great Brit. Greece Croatia Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Luxemb. Latvia Macedonia Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia Sweden Slovenia Slovakia GW Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 28 / 50

54 Total capacity 2030, 650 ppm Austria Bosnia H Belgium Bulgaria Switzerland Czech R Germany Denmark Estonia Spain Finland France Great Brit. Greece Croatia Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Luxemb. Latvia Macedonia Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia Sweden Slovenia Slovakia GW Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 29 / 50

55 Cum. investments generation 2050, 650 ppm Austria Bosnia H Belgium Bulgaria Switzerland Czech R Germany Denmark Estonia Spain Finland France Great Brit. Greece Croatia Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Luxemb. Latvia Macedonia Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia Sweden Slovenia Slovakia GW Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 30 / 50

56 Total capacity 2050, 650 ppm Austria Bosnia H Belgium Bulgaria Switzerland Czech R Germany Denmark Estonia Spain Finland France Great Brit. Greece Croatia Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Luxemb. Latvia Macedonia Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia Sweden Slovenia Slovakia GW Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 31 / 50

57 Investment options No invest 0.5 GW 1 GW 2 GW 3 GW 4 GW 5 GW 10 GW Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 32 / 50

58 Cum. investments transmission 2030, 650 ppm No invest 0.5 GW 1 GW 2 GW 3 GW 4 GW 5 GW 10 GW Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 33 / 50

59 Cum. investments transmission 2050, 650 ppm No invest 0.5 GW 1 GW 2 GW 3 GW 4 GW 5 GW 10 GW Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 34 / 50

60 450ppm stabilization scenario Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 35 / 50

61 Global emissions and CO 2 concentration 450 ppm 100 GtCO2 emissions per year CO2 concentration [ppm] Ref em Ref cons ppm em 450ppm cons Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 36 / 50

62 European electricity mix reference vs 450ppm TWh/yr Reference TWh/yr 450ppm Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 37 / 50

63 Fuel prices 450 ppm 150 Fuel price [2007$/MMBtu] 3000 CO 2 price [2007$/tonne] Oil ref N Gas ref Coal ref Oil 450 N Gas 450 Coal 450 CO Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 38 / 50

64 Regional European electricity mix 450ppm TWh/yr Western Europe TWh/yr Eastern Europe Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 39 / 50

65 Cum. investments generation 2030, 450 ppm Austria Bosnia H Belgium Bulgaria Switzerland Czech R Germany Denmark Estonia Spain Finland France Great Brit. Greece Croatia Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Luxemb. Latvia Macedonia Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia Sweden Slovenia Slovakia GW Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 40 / 50

66 Total capacity 2030, 450 ppm Austria Bosnia H Belgium Bulgaria Switzerland Czech R Germany Denmark Estonia Spain Finland France Great Brit. Greece Croatia Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Luxemb. Latvia Macedonia Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia Sweden Slovenia Slovakia GW Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 41 / 50

67 Cum. investments generation 2050, 450 ppm Austria Bosnia H Belgium Bulgaria Switzerland Czech R Germany Denmark Estonia Spain Finland France Great Brit. Greece Croatia Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Luxemb. Latvia Macedonia Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia Sweden Slovenia Slovakia GW Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 42 / 50

68 Total capacity 2050, 450 ppm Austria Bosnia H Belgium Bulgaria Switzerland Czech R Germany Denmark Estonia Spain Finland France Great Brit. Greece Croatia Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Luxemb. Latvia Macedonia Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia Sweden Slovenia Slovakia GW Solar Wind Hydro Geotherm. Nuclear Bio w/ccs Bio Oil w/ccs Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 43 / 50

69 Investment options No invest 0.5 GW 1 GW 2 GW 3 GW 4 GW 5 GW 10 GW Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 44 / 50

70 Cum. investments transmission 2030, 450 ppm No invest 0.5 GW 1 GW 2 GW 3 GW 4 GW 5 GW 10 GW Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 45 / 50

71 Cum. investments transmission 2050, 450 ppm No invest 0.5 GW 1 GW 2 GW 3 GW 4 GW 5 GW 10 GW Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 46 / 50

72 Conclusion This approach provides additional information about effects of a climate policy on a regional power system The results can now be used to adjust GCAM scenarios Can be useful for policymakers on a national level The results indicate that an optimal expansion involves high investments in transmission to support balancing of supply and demand. Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 47 / 50

73 Further comments on operational modeling Hydro power Including enough time steps to cover a full planning cycle for a big reservoir quickly makes the operational problem prohibitively large. One possible way to circumvent this is to construct scenarios for water values, that is, the alternative cost of the water in a reservoir. Water values can be used to represent different seasons in a year, but also different hydrological situations (dry year, wet year, normal year, etc) The plan is to use a specialized hydro power production model for making the water value scenarios. Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 48 / 50

74 Possible future extensions of the model A network flow model Integer values in the investment stage Relaxing the constraint that the energy mix computed by capacity expansion model should match GCAM. The GCAM results can be used to generate scenarios for climate policy uncertainty. Develop a multi-stage model with strategic uncertainty. Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 49 / 50

75 Thank you for your attention Tomasgard & Skar (NTNU) The LinkS project 50 / 50