Powering New York State with Wind, Water, and the Sun to Address Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Energy Security

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1 Powering New York State with Wind, Water, and the Sun to Address Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Energy Security A. R. Ingraffea The Dwight C. Baum Professor Of Civil and Environmental Engineering Cornell University, and Physicians, Scientists and Engineers for Healthy Energy, Inc. 1

2 Outline of Presentation OUR New York State Energy Plan The how (who?), the why (New York?), and the what (renewable sources?) of our Plan What is the SOLUTIONS PROJECT and how did it arise What is in our current plan for New York State: Type/number of renewable sources Health/climate impacts Job impacts Land use impacts Economics Energy security and independence 2

3 The Plan: Convert New York State s All-Purpose Energy Infrastructure to One Derived Entirely from Wind, Water, and Sunlight by 2050 Energy Technology NYS s 2050 all-purpose end-use power would be provided by: % of 2050 energy demand met by plant/device Additional capacity needed (MW) Number of new plants or devices needed Onshore wind ,391 3,678 Offshore wind ,924 11,784 Wave device 0.5 1,405 1,872 Geothermal plant 5.0 3, Hydroelectric plant Tidal turbine 1.0 2,544 2,544 Res. roof PV system ,910 8,382,042 Com/gov roof PV system , ,906 Solar PV plant ,521 1,150 Jacobson et al., Energy Policy,

4 How Did This Plan Develop? From a set of engineers, scientists, social scientists, celebrities, and, of course, grad students. In 2012, they asked the question: If not shale gas in New York, then what? We did the research, the modeling, wrote the paper, on our nickel. 4

5 What s the Problem? Why Act Quickly? Air pollution from fossil and biofuels causes million premature deaths worldwide annually. Climate change is real, and effects are becoming more evident. Arctic sea ice may disappear in years. Increasing fossil energy use increases pollution, warming, and energy prices. Higher fossil energy prices lead to economic, social, political instability. Drastic problems require immediate solutions. 5

6 How Much Time Do We Have? Danger Zone Dangerous Tipping Points Are Only 15 to 35 Years Into the Future Last Warning Zone Source: Shindell et al.(2012). Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science 335:

7 And Yet Here is the U.S. Energy Information Agency Forecast 7

8 Why New York State? 8 th largest economy in the world Both dense urban and rural environments NYC most energy efficient city in the United States Sufficiently large spatial scale for interconnected wind power Clear choice between renewables and the alleged bridge fuel of shale gas 8

9 Very Strong No to Natural Gas Disastrous for global warming, because of methane emissions times more CO 2 and air pollution per kwh than wind High-volume hydraulic fracturing requires large quantities of water, and has high levels of water and air pollution For shale gas, clustered, multi-well pads with long laterals with very high spatial intensity and heavy industrial footprint 9

10 Even without exports of LNG and conversion of autos to methane, we will exhaust our methane supply before

11 Why Not Clean Coal With Carbon Capture? 50 times more CO 2 emissions per kwh than wind 150 times more other air pollutant emissions per kwh than wind Requires 25% more energy, thus 25% more coal mining and transport and traditional pollution than normal coal Carbon capture has yet to be proven, and looks problematic on a commercial scale 11

12 Why Not Nuclear Power? 9 to 25 times more pollution per KWh than for wind, from mining, refining, and construction Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted down) High risk of nuclear weapons proliferation Unresolved high-level nuclear waste disposal issues Construction time too long: too late in the fight against climate change 12

13 MYTH: It Is Not Windy Enough in NYS to Make Wind Energy Practical Wind Capacity Factors at 90-m Hub Height in NYS. Capacity factors of 30% or higher are the most cost-effective for wind energy development. Jacobson et al., Energy Policy,

14 MYTH: It Is Not Sunny Enough in NYS to Make Wind Energy Practical NYS: kwh/m 2 /day)

15 Our Energy Plan for New York State Jacobson et al., Energy Policy, Feb

16 Outline of Presentation OUR New York State Energy Plan The how (who?), the why (New York?), and the what (renewable sources?) of our Plan What is the SOLUTIONS PROJECT and how did it arise What is in the current plan for New York State: Type/number of renewable sources Health/climate impacts Job impacts Land use impacts Economics Energy security and independence 16

17 One Thing Leads to Another, And Prof. Mark Jacobson Prof. Bob Howarth And a few others Dr. Jannette Barth Mark Ruffalo Josh Fox 17

18 The SOLUTIONS PROJECT thesolutionsproject.org 18

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20 Device/Plant Counts for Renewable Sources of Energy in New York State Energy Technology % of 2050 energy demand met by plant/device Capacity needed (GW) Number of new plants or devices needed Onshore wind ,678 Offshore wind ,784 Wave device ,872 Geothermal plant Hydroelectric plant Tidal turbine ,544 Res. roof PV system ,382,042 Com/gov roof PV system ,906 Solar PV plant ,150 TOTAL: 254 GW Current All-Purpose Power Demand in NYS = 64 GW 2050 All-Purpose WWS Power Demand = 60 GW 20

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22 Efficiency Gains in the Home: Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater Midlandpower.com Conservpros.com Heat pump water heater Adaptivebuilders.com

23 Fossil-fuel air pollution causes 4,000 deaths per year in New York State. Deaths and other health costs = $33 billion per year in New York State. Aerosol particle pollution in NYC during winter 2009 (values above 7 ug/m 3 increase mortality the most) 23

24 And NYS s own emission decreases would reduce 2050 U.S. climate costs by $3.2 billion/yr. 24

25 Conversion to Renewable Energy will Create Jobs in New York State Average number of jobs in the US per million dollars spent on energy production: 3.7 for fossil fuels 9.5 for wind 9.7 for solar Info.ussolarinstitute.com Source: The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy, U. Mass, Dept. of Economics & Policy Research Institute, June

26 Estimated Job Creation in New York State with SOLUTIONS PLAN Energy Technology Construction Jobs Operations Jobs Onshore wind 1,832 2,745 Offshore wind 10,148 37,128 Wave device 474 3,325 Geothermal plant 1, Hydroelectric plant Tidal turbine 752 5,770 Res. roof PV system 62,514 19,206 Com/gov roof PV system 110,213 22,259 Solar PV plant 51,510 16,808 TOTALS 238, ,926 26

27 Footprint of New Renewable Energy Sources for SOLUTIONS PLAN in New York State Energy Technology Footprint area (km 2 ) Spacing area (km 2 ) Footprint area (% of state) Spacing area (% of state) Onshore wind % % Offshore wind % % Wave device % % Geothermal plant % % Hydroelectric plant % % Tidal turbine % % Res. roof PV system % % Com/gov roof PV system % % Solar PV plant % % Total 1.42% 5.67% New land = Land - Roof - Offshore 0.86% 1.34% 27

28 MYTH: WWS Take Too Much Space 28

29 Estimated Cost of Renewable Energy Sources for SOLUTIONS PLAN in New York State Energy Technology Cost (billion) Compared to what? 50,000 shale gas wells, alone, will cost $250B Onshore wind $ 25.7 Offshore wind $ Wave device $ 4.2 Geothermal plant $ 5.9 Hydroelectric What choice plant do we really $ have? 1.8 Tidal turbine $ 7.6 Res. roof PV system $ 73.3 Com/gov roof PV system $ Solar PV plant $ 86.2 Climate change will dominate all costs TOTAL $

30 Costs of Energy, Including Transmission ( /kwh) Delucchi & Jacobson (2010) Energy Technology Wind onshore Wind offshore Wave >> Geothermal Hydroelectric 4 4 Solar PV Tidal >> Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5)= (+5.5) =

31 Our Plan Stabilizes and Reduces Energy Costs Compared to Fossil Fuels 31

32 Outline of Presentation OUR New York State Energy Plan The how (who?), the why (New York?), and the what (renewable sources?) of our Plan What is the SOLUTIONS PROJECT and how did it arise What is in the current plan for New York State: Type/number of renewable sources Health/climate impacts Job impacts Land use impacts Economics Energy security and independence 32

33 The Plan: Convert New York State s All-Purpose Energy Infrastructure to One Derived Entirely from Wind, Water, and Sunlight by 2050 NYS s 2050 all-purpose end-use power would be provided by: Energy Technology % of 2050 energy demand met by plant/device Additional capacity needed (MW) Or, we can have 50,000 to 100,000 Marcellus and Utica Wells; Jacobson et al., Energy Policy, 2013 Number of new plants or devices needed Onshore wind ,391 3,678 Offshore wind ,924 11,784 8,000 to 16,000 pads; Wave device 0.5 1,405 1,872 Geothermal 500 to plant 1,000 compressor 5.0 stations; 3, Hydroelectric Thousands plant of miles 5.5 of new pipelines; Tidal turbine Thousands of incidents 1.0 of well water contamination; 2,544 2,544 Res. roof PV system ,910 8,382,042 Com/gov Increase roof PV New York s contribution to global warming; , ,906 system Continue illness and morbidity from pollution; Solar PV plant ,521 1,150 Sequester forever twice the tonnage of the US Navy in non-recyclable steel casing. 33

34 Energy Security and Independence We Own the Wind, the Sun, the Water: Their Fuel Cost is Zero. Wind, water and solar energy will provide a stable, renewable source of electric power not subject to the same fuel supply limitations as fossil fuels and nuclear power. Due to the eventual depletion of coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium resources, their prices will continue to rise. We Own the Wind, the Sun, the Water: They Make Us Energy Secure and Independent 34

35 Our Plan: Summary Electrify transportation and commercial and domestic heating greater efficiencies lower total energy consumption (37%). Choose most environmentally benign generation technologies (50% wind, 36% photovoltaic, and 14% geothermal, hydro, tidal, and waves). Rely on technologies that are commercially available today. Use a variety of energy storage techniques, and approaches for balancing demand to production. Use hydrogen (generated from excess electricity production) for industrial process energy and as a transportation fuel for airplanes, long-distance trucks, and ships. 35

36 Our Plan: Summary Is cost effective ($486 billion price tag is paid off entirely in health-cost and climate-cost savings of $36 billion per year over 14 years) Creates large number of net new jobs in New York. Stabilizes energy prices, and greatly improves energy security; reduces energy prices on the time scale of 10 or more years into the future. Nobody owns the sun/wind/water. Hugely decreases air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from New York. 36

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38 Thank You for Attending and Participating Today 38

39 Direct Societal Benefits from the SOLUTIONS PLAN for New York State Reduces air pollution Fights climate change Prevents water and land contamination Reduces health costs Improves national security Sets an example for other states 39

40 Matching power generation to demand: Interconnect wind turbines over a large enough area to even out system-wide power generation Use hydro-power and stored solar power to help balance demand Oversize generation capacity, and produce hydrogen with excess (for feeding back into the grid through fuel cells, and for industrial process heat energy) Use demand-response management to shift demand to match power generation Store energy through pumped hydroelectric, compressed air, flywheels, and batteries (particularly in electric vehicles) Store heat energy seasonally through geothermal ground exchange. 40

41 No to liquid biofuels -- Greenhouse gas footprint, intensity of land use, conflicts with food production, and water and air pollution all too large -- A limited role for direct combustion of biomass to cogenerate heat & electricity 41

42 For Most If Not All Related Service-Sector Industries, Jobs Are Replaced in Kind 42

43 Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity, GW History of Installed Wind Capacity in the U.S Year 43

44 Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity, GW A Near-Term Projection of Wind Capacity in the U.S. y = 0.091x x 2 + 1E+06x - 7E+08 R² = The equivalent of GW nuclear power plants (assuming a capacity factor of 33% from 750 new GW of capacity) in the next 6 years Year 44

45 Cumulative U.S. PV Capacity, GW History of Installed Commercial Solar 8 Capacity in the U.S. 7 6 y = x x 2 + 1E+06x - 9E+08 R² = Year 45

46 Cumulative U.S. PV Capacity, GW A Near-Term Projection of Commercial Solar Capacity in the U.S y = x x 2 + 1E+06x - 9E+08 R² = The equivalent of 27 1-GW nuclear power plants in the U.S. (assuming a capacity factor of 15% from 180 new GW of capacity) in the next 6 years Year 46

47 No to liquid biofuels -- Greenhouse gas footprint, intensity of land use, conflicts with food production, and water and air pollution all too large -- A limited role for direct combustion of biomass to cogenerate heat & electricity 47