Beyond the Limits to Growth -New Ideas for Sustainability from Japan-

Transcription

1 Asian Leadership Program on Sustainable Development and Climate Change in Seoul, Korea 7 April 2014 Beyond the Limits to Growth -New Ideas for Sustainability from Japan- Hiroshi Komiyama President, Platinum Society Network Chairman of the Institute, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. President emeritus, University of Tokyo Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank, or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this presentation and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The countries listed in this presentation do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's terminology.

2 Contents 1. What is the 21 st century? 2. What is Japan? 3. Platinum Society as a Vision of 21 st century 4. We need Platinum Revolution

3 21 st century is a turning point Towards equally rich countries Per-capita GDP of a country normalized by that of the world Platinum-Revolution Informational- Revolution Agricultural- Revolution Industrial- Revolution Japan Italy France UK Germany USA Japan China India source:angus Maddison :Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, AD Hiroshi Komiyama

4 21 st century is a turning point Majority of people enjoy Longevity The change of life expectancy in the world years studies Angus Maddison estimated Egypt England UK France Japan USA India World source: Hiroshi Komiyama

5 Production of Cement per Person (ton/person) 21 st century is a turning point Annual Cement Production per-capita 人口一人当たりセメント生産量 ( トン / 人 ) Japan China USA France Year Hiroshi Komiyama

6 21 st century is a turning point Saturation of artifacts The number of automobile ownership(2007) No. of automobiles (million) No. of automobiles per population Japan USA Britain France Germany China (2012) 0.02 India Source:Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications

7 What is Japan? Japan overcame environmental pollution 出所 : 課題先進国日本 P27( 北九州市提供 )

8 Energy for production What is Japan? 6,000 (MJ/t) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Japan overcame energy crises by increasing energy efficiency. US Denmark Belgium France Sweden Japan Theoretical Source: Japan Cement Association year 出所 : 課題先進国日本 P114

9 What is Japan? Closed in Edo Meiji restoration 2000 One of the peaks in the world Ind. Revolution in Europe vs. Spiritual Culture in Japan Achieving high economic growth (1868~) Answering the pollutions by innovation (1960~) Answering the energy crises by innovation (1970~) Realizing the world longest lifespan by innovation (1970~) Global issues caused by finite earth Aging of society Japan faces challenges ahead of the world and needs innovations.

10 Platinum Society as a Vision of 21 st century Now, majority of regular citizens in developed countries own food, clothing, shelter, mobility, information, and longevity It will not be later than mid 21 st century that majority of the people in the world will own them. What do we want under this satisfaction? Quality of Life What is the quality that we desire?

11 Platinum Society Network [Local Governments] 122 Governor:30 Mayor:92 [Corporate CEO s] 81 [Individuals]48 Tokyo districts 東京 23 区 governors 知事が入会の都道府県 mayors 市町村長のみ入会の都道府県 CKomiyama

12 Necessary condition for platinum society Society in Harmony with Nature Yokkaichi at 1950s present CYokkaichi City Beyond pollution control

13 Smart Agriculture in Japan Innovative agriculture with ICT, engineering, private company Community Garden Area Vegetable plant by textile company Farm Field in Chiba University Vegetable plant by convenience store company Vegetable Plants Area Kashiwa-no-ha Smart City (Photo)Plant Factory Association of Japan 13

14 (Photo)Annual Report on Trends in Forests and Forestry, The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan Smart Forestry in Japan Scale expansion Mechanization Supply chain restructuring Land slide after heavy rain Self-sufficient Environmental conservation Job creation

15 Necessary condition for platinum society Energy Efficiency was improved in manufacturing in 1970s Energy Efficiency should be improved in daily life now FY1970 Business, 8.5 Household, 10.1 Transport, 15.2 Industry, 66.2 Manufacturing 66% FY2010 Daily Life 57% Transport, 23.8 Business, 15.1 Household, 18.3 Industry, 42.8

16 Fuel Consumption [L/km] Necessary condition for platinum society Energy Efficiency of Automobiles to 10 times US/European Cars Japanese Cars Hybrid Cars 0 Electric & Fuel cells Cars Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos Vehicle Weight [kg]

17 Necessary condition for platinum society Energy Efficiency as well as QOL Komiyama Eco-House Heat Pump Water Heater: COP=4 High Insulation: K=1.6 W/m 2 K New air conditioners & refrigerator LED & efficient fluorescent lamps Solar Power Generation: 3.6kW 81 % Energy Reduction refundable in 12 years

18 Small Hydro Development & Dissemination In Asia Grasp Potential of Small Hydro Development in Each Countries Disseminate Small Hydro by Volume Production and Technology Transfer for O&M Scale of Small Hydro Less than 30MW World s Potential:150~200GW High Potential in Asia Electricity Generation in Asia:8,517 TWh as of 2011 Possible sites of Small Hydro Potential Feasible Developed Rivers Agricultural Waterways Water and Sewerage Factories Four Issues & Measures Africa Asia Australia Europe North South Oceania Central America Source: NEDO America Issues Water Rights Profitability Operation & Maintenance PPA/FIT Measures Need to Develop or Improve Legal Framework Need to Reduce Initial Costs by Volume Production Need to Develop Sustainable Framework by Technology Transfer Need to Develop Policy and Legal Framework

19 Necessary condition for platinum society Energy: Renewable energy is abundant Solar Wind Hydro Biomass Geothermal Invest Now and Enjoy Later

20 Necessary condition for platinum society Energy is Self-Sufficient artifacts saturate and efficiencies improved Decrease by Efficiency improvement % 32/45 = 0.7 renewable(solar wind geo biomass hydro) 32% 2008 年 2020 年 2030 年 2040 年 2050 年 domestic 国産エネルギー import 輸入エネルギー Ckomiyama

21 Necessary condition for platinum society Urban mines from Natural mines artifacts saturated and energy saved Iron Aluminum Gold ratio of energy for reduction and melting 27 times 83 times ratio of concentration of mines and mobile phones 50 times Human will become free from excavation.

22 Necessary condition for platinum society Toward Resource Self-Sufficient Japan at 2050 Energy 70% Mineral 70% Food 70% Wood 100% Water 100% 20 th century low cost resources 21 st century low price artifacts

23 Necessary condition for platinum society Aging: Most seniors can be independent until 2~3 years before death selfsupport resilient (11%) early decline (19%) gradual decline (70%) death age male 出典 )Akiyama et al. (2008) アメリカ老年学会 2008 年年次大会 23

24 Necessary condition for platinum society Physically weaker but Intellectually stronger 55 Change of Cognitive Ability 50 Performance score Ability of daily problem-solving Language ability (vocabulary) Ability of short-term memory AGE Source)Cornelius and Caspi(1987, p150)

25 Necessary condition for platinum society Healthy and Independent Longevity Conditions for Happy Aging Nutrition Exercise Exchange Flexibility Positive Thinking HAL(for care) Produced by CYBERDYNE (JAPAN) PHOTO:MRI Communication Robot - Giraffe Produced by Robot Dalen(Sweden) Assistive eating device - Bestic Produced by Robot Dalen (Sweden)

26 Necessary condition for platinum society New businesses for Health and Independence Housing for Health Utilization of ICT in daily life Urban Development for Healthy life Vehicle, transportation relaxation Entertainment Eco-money Ｐｒｅｓｃｒｉｐｔｉｏｎ Body ICT Smart Wellness Life-style, medical biography, biological information, gene information, etc. Conventional medical care Treatment Food Service insurance System Disease sports Device, tool Education symptom back problem, migraine, cardiac disease, atopy, depression, allergy, dependence, tranquilization industrial promotion PHR service Cause Body-Care dietary education, physical exercise, intellectual education, forest bathing, recreation, medication, molecular target treatment, etc. tourism Innovative evolution of ICT R&D Advanced ICT utilization medical-care nursing-care robot regeneration medicine drug Preventive health-care Copyright 小宮山宏( Dr. Hiroshi Komiyama)

27 Necessary condition for platinum society Industrial Revolution Standardization, Mass Production, Supply-Side Platinum Revolution, Diversity, Free Production, Demand-Side Copyright 小宮山宏 ( Dr. Hiroshi Komiyama)

28 Necessary conditions for Platinum Society ecology renewable energy urban mines healthy and creative longevity participated by all rich spiritually as well as materially abundant in job opportunities We need Platinum Revolution!

29 Two Crucial Demands for Economic Growth Diffusive Demand Demands for quantitative wealth to saturate Car/TV/house/appliances/ /Present Industry Creative Demand Demands for QOL to create new industries Health Care/New Energy/Eco-House/ /Platinum Industry We need Platinum Revolution

30 Action with Vision is inevitable NOW! Contents: Preface 1. Diffusive Demand and Creative Demand 2. The 21st Century Paradigm and the Role of Information Technology 3. Vision 2050 as the Rescue of a Limited Earth 4. Finding a Way Out Through Creative Demand, I 5. Finding a Way Out Through Creative Demand, II 6. Toward the Realization of a Platinum Society Thank you!