Climate Change in New York City

Transcription

1 3 rd Annual Political Climate Change Forum: Pratt Manhattan Community June 22, 2011 Climate Change in New York City William Solecki City University of New York NPCC - Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response ClimAID Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State

2 Climate Change with Dynamic Urbanization New York City s population is expected to grow to 9.1 million persons by 2030 By 2030, the employment force will grow by 750,000 jobs Electricity and heating fuel consumption are also projected to increase 6/22/2011 Source: PLANYC 2

3 Adaptation Taskforce and NPCC Critical Infrastructure Stakeholders City Agencies Regional Authorities Private Corporations Stakeholder Task Force C W W Integration across Sector specific Working Groups - Energy (E) - Transportation (T) City wide Sustainability Office P Mayor or City Official E T Expert Panel Climate Risk Information Adaptation Assessment Guidelines High Level Buy In Coordinating Role Expert Knowledge Providers University scholars and private sector experts Social, biological, and physical scientists Legal and insurance experts Risk management professionals - Policy (P) -Water & Waste (WW) Climate Protection Levels Source: NPCC, /22/ Communications (C) 3

4 Developing Climate Risk Information Process used to develop climate risk factors for New York City s 6/22/2011 4

5 Hot Summer of 2010* Summer was hottest on record in New York City Daily maximum temperature anomaly ( F) July 2010 Central Park, NY July was the 2 nd warmest month on record at Central Park, with average temperature of 81.3 F (July 99 was the warmest 81.4 F) There were 16 days at or above 90 F, the normal for July is 6. In July 2009, the highest maximum temperature for the month was 86 F August 2010 Central Park, NY Mean temperature in August was 2.3 F above normal monthly average of 75.1 F Summer was hottest on record by 0.5 F At Central Park, there were 37 days at or above 90 F, tied for the 2 nd most on record Daily maximum temperature anomaly ( F) Mean number of days at or above 90 F per year for the 2050s is projected to be 38 days *Teachable moment 6/22/2011 5

6 Observed Climate Temperature Significant warming at century timescale Precipitation Interannual variability dominates long term trend Sea level Significant increase over the 20 th century at the Battery Observed climate in Central Park, New York City. Temperature data are not adjusted for urbanization effects. *Trend is significant at the 95% level. 6 Source: NPCC, 2010

7 Climate Scenario Methods Regional climate projections are based on 16 GCMs (7 GCMs for sea level) and 3 emissions scenarios Model output for the single gridbox covering New York City is used Future changes are presented for time slices relative to the baseline period ( for sea level) Time slices are 30 year periods (10 for sea level) centered around a given decade, for example, the 2050s is Model based probability The combination of GCMS and emissions scenarios produce 48 outputs for temperature and precipitation For each scenario time period and variable, the results constitute a model based probability function Bias corrected, spatially downscaled output from the 16 GCMs now being used (Maurer, 2007) Frequency distribution of model based temperature changes for the 2050s relative to the base period. 6/22/2011 7

8 Mean Annual Changes Air temperature Central range Precipitation Central range Sea level rise Central range Baseline Baseline Climate and Mean Annual Changes 2020s 2050s 2080s 55 F (1.5 to 3.0) 3.5 F (3.0 to 5.0) 7.5 F (4.0 to 7.5) 10 F 46.5 in -5 (0 to 5) 10 % -10 (0 to 10) 10 % -10 (5 to 10) 15 % NA + 2 to 5 in + 7 to 12 in + 12 to 23 in Rapid ice-melt scenario NA ~ 5 to 10 in ~ 19 to 29 in ~ 41 to 55 in Shown is minimum, the middle 67% of values, and maximum values from model-based probabilities; temperatures ranges are rounded to the nearest half-degree, precipitation to the nearest 5%, and sea level rise to the nearest inch. - Stakeholders requested the central range of values along with the maximum and minimum values be shown - Climate information was presented in a tearsheet format so that stakeholders could easily reference it Source: NPCC, /22/2011 8

9 Heat waves & Cold Events Intense Precipitation Coastal Floods & Storms Quantitative Changes The central range (middle 67% of values from model-based probabilities) across the GCMs and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios is shown. Extreme Event Baselin e ( ) 2020s 2050s 2080s # of days/year with maximum temperature exceeding: 90 F # of days/year with minimum temperature at or below 32 F # of days per year with rainfall exceeding: 1 inch Extreme Events to to to to to to to to to 16 Qualitative Changes Based on observations, model process studies, and expert judgment, ~once 1-in-100 yr flood ~once ~once ~once every to reoccur, on every every 65 every to average 100 yrs to 80 yrs to 55 yrs 35 yrs Flood heights (in ft) 8.8 to 9.2 to 9.6 to 8.6 Source: NPCC, 2010 associated with /22/ in-100 yr flood

10 Using Scenarios for Adaptation Climate scenarios developed for New York City were used to identify impacts on infrastructure and start the adaptation assessment process Climate information helped guide stakeholders through: Inventory of At risk Infrastructure Risk Assessment Matrix Strategy Prioritization Framework 6/22/

11 Science Policy Linkages and Adaptation Decisions Actions Enhance existing programs Moving pumps at the Rockaway Wastewater Treatment Plant to 14 feet above sea level from 25 feet below Planning NYC DEP Climate Change Integrated Modeling Project (CCIMP) analyzing climate impacts on NYC water supply NYC DEP RFP to study impacts of rising sea level on Wastewater Pollution Control Plants (WPCP), tide gates and other structures Standards and Regulations NPCC Recommendation to change 1/100 year floodplain standards Ashokan Reservoir, a component of the New York City Water Supply System WPCP in Bronx, New York 6/22/2011 Urban Design MOMA Source: NYC DEP 11

12 NYS ClimAID Adaptation Assessment Equity and environmental justice Economics Base line costs extrapolated with historic GDP growth rates (long term growth rate 2.4%) and increased by climate impact parameters (e.g., increase in floods) to give future costs with climate change but without adaptation. Future adaptation costs and benefits estimated from available data. 6/22/2011 Links to Policy ClimAID provided vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment for NYS Climate Action Plan process; links of mitigation and adaptation 12

13 Key Points for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Put context first add changing climate risks to ongoing policy planning processes Aka: Start with trajectories of population, gdp, poverty, etc. and of multiple stresses, e.g., on ecosystems Communicate that climate scenario process is interactive and ongoing make sure that stakeholders know that projections will be updated Clarify and characterize major known risks as well as uncertainties; quantitatively and qualitatively Monitor and evaluate adaptation decisions, including use of scenarios! 6/22/

14 References and Links PlaNYC Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response New York State Climate Action Plan ClimAID Synthesis Report 6/22/

15 Contact: William Solecki /22/