Towards Low Carbon Cities: Understanding and Analyzing Urban Energy and Carbon. Session IV: Energy and Emissions: Accountings and Policy Implications

Transcription

1 International Workshop Towards Low Carbon Cities: Understanding and Analyzing Urban Energy and Carbon Session IV: Energy and Emissions: Accountings and Policy Implications Extended Life Cycle Assessment of the Transportation System and Energy NAGOYA UNIVERSITY Naoki SHIBAHARA Feb 18, 2009, Nagoya, Japan

2 Agenda 1. Understanding the contribution of the transport sector to CO 2 emissions and the continuing trend in Japan. 2. Explaining the importance of technical innovation in cars as well as the modal shift from driving private cars to taking public transportation to achieve an 80% reduction of vehicular CO 2 emissions between 2000 and Using life cycle assessment and developing a methodology for evaluating CO 2 emissions with the introduction of various modes of transport. 4. Proposing different means of public transportation according to each type of city and calculating the total amount of CO 2 reduction. 2

3 Contribution of Each Sector to CO 2 Emissions (2006) Business 18% Others Waste 4% 廃棄物 3% Energy conversion エネルギー転換 6% Aviation 4% Rail 3% Domestic 13% Transport 20% Car 88% Industry 36% Ship 5% Car: 0.2% in all sectors, 88% in the transport sector 3

4 Trend of CO 2 Emissions from Passenger Transport Aviation +61% Car +39% Rail +6% [Year] CO 2 emissions from cars:139 in 2006 (1990s = 100) 4

5 Introduction of Technological Measures (2050) Vehicle Private car Type/secti on Reduction rate of fuel consumption [%] CO 2 emissions [g-co 2 /veh.-km] Diffusion rate [%] hybrid electric Bus hybrid Railway electrified 10.0 nonelectrified

6 CO 2 Reduction by the Technological Measures (2050) The amount of CO 2 emissions in many municipalities is reduced by more than 80%. (t-co 2 / 年 ) 150, ,000 50,000 0 The total amount of CO 2 emissions is reduced by 68.3% as compared to the case in km 6

7 Comparison of Travel/Flight Energy Consumption ~National Average~ Aviation 1,613 Rail 454 Bus Private car 749 2,560 Energy [KJ/passenger-km] Rail and bus consume less than private car 7

8 Problems in the Comparison of Travel/Flight CO 2 Emissions per Passenger-Kilometer 1. Average present observed emission This value cannot necessarily be used for the construction of a new railway An empty train is clearly bad for the environment May change due to demand and the level of service 2. Considered only as emissions from travel Improvement of railways affects the environment Need to calculate emissions from railway infrastructure and rolling stocks Need to evaluate using LCA 8

9 SyLCEL(System Life Cycle Environmental Load) Project life of infrastructure LCEL Infrastructure Vehicles Co onstruction Start of service SyLCEL(System Life Cycle Environmental Load) Lifetime of infrastructure Maintenance and Repair Running and Maintenance Production Production Production Disposal Disposal Disposal Disposal Year Lifetime of vehicles 9

10 Case Study: Medium Capacity Transport Systems Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) Light Rail Transit (LRT) Seeking the best alternative mode for different levels of demand Guideway Bus (GWB) Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) 10

11 Calculation of SyLCEL(CO 2 ) SyLC-CO 2 [g-co 2 /passenger km] 500 Demand 7,000 [passenger/day] Occupancy 11% Fuel/electricity Operation Infrastructure Vehicle production Attached structure Railway AGT LRT GWB BRT Fuel consumption Minor change AGT and GWB Large environmental load during the construction stage 11

12 Sensitivity Analysis of SyLC-COCO 2 by Demand [g-co 2 /passenger km] SyLC-CO AGT LRT BRT GWB Railway 0 1,000 2,000 7,000 10,000 40, ,000 The lowest mode Demand [passenger/day] 1,000~2,000 : BRT 2,000~40,000 : LRT 40,000~ : Railway 12

13 Relationship between Public Transport Demand and Population Density 120,000 y = x R 2 = ,000 Subway 80,000 60,000 Tram, AGT, Monorail (over 20 km/h) Demand [passenger] 40,000 20,000 0 y = x R 2 = y = x R 2 = ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Tram (under 20 km/h) DID population density along the line [person/km 2 ] DID: Densely Inhabited District (original Japanese definition) 13

14 Relationship between Public Transport Demand and Population Density along the Line System Life Cycle CO 2 [g-co 2 /passenger passenger-km] BRT(20km/h (over km/h) 以上 ) ) k m 160 / 人 O C (g 2 O 120 C - C 100 y L S り 80 たあ m 60 k 人送 40 輸 20 Cars / existing railway LRT/BRT/existing railway BRT(20km/h (under 以下 km/h) ) LRT/BRT LRT Monorail モノレール LRT(20km/h (under 20km/h) 以下 ) LRT(20km/h (over 20km/h) 以上 ) GWB Subway/AGT/Monorail AGT 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 DID 人口密度 ( 人 2 ) Population density in DID [person/km 2 ] Passenger 自動車 car ( 全国平均値 (running only) ) Bus バス (running ( 走行のみ only) ) Railway 鉄道 ( 新規整備 ) (Life cycle) Railway 鉄道 ( 走行のみ ) (running only) 14

15 Alternative Mode of Transport to Minimize LC-COCO 2 LRT: 573 municipalities BRT: 271 municipalities LRT 1.6 BRT 0.8 Railway, monorail, AGT, and GWB are not selected because the CO 2 emissions are caused by infrastructure construction km 15

16 Total CO 2 Reduction by Technological Measures and Modal Shifts (2050) Additional CO 2 reductions are observed in many municipalities (t-co 2 /yr) 150, ,000 50, km The total amount of CO 2 emissions is reduced by 79% as compared to the year

17 Summary of Today s Presentation Understanding the contribution of the transport sector to CO 2 emissions and the continuing trend in Japan. Explaining the importance of technical innovation in cars as well as the modal shift from driving private cars to using public transportation for 80% reduction in transportation origin CO 2 between 2000 and Using life cycle assessment and developing a methodology for evaluating CO 2 emissions with the introduction of various modes of transport. Proposing different means of public transportation according to each type of city and calculating the total CO 2 reduction. 17