Current and Possible Future Trends in Nuclear R&D. Phillip Finck Chief Scientist, Idaho National Laboratory

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1 Current and Possible Future Trends in Nuclear R&D Phillip Finck Chief Scientist, Idaho National Laboratory October 2014

2 Outline Current Needs Can they be extrapolated? World Trends Towards new approaches? Possible Future Trends My best guess 2

3 DOE-NE Strategy is Articulated Through Five RD&D Objectives Objective 1: Improve the reliability and performance, sustain the safety and security, and extend the life of current reactors by developing advanced technological solutions. Objective 2: Meet the Administration's energy security and climate change goals by developing technologies to support the deployment of affordable advanced reactors. Objective 3: Optimize energy generation, waste generation, safety, and nonproliferation attributes by developing sustainable nuclear fuel cycles. Objective 4: Enable future nuclear energy options by developing and maintaining an integrated national RD&D framework. Objective 5: Advance U. S. international civil nuclear energy priorities and objectives through collaboration. Structural Materials System Design Studies Power Conversion Systems Dry Heat Rejection Systems Materials Recovery UNF Disposition Fuels and Cladding Hybrid Systems Waste Forms Safeguards & Security Safety and Risk Analysis Advanced Manufacturing Systems Analysis Space & Defense Power Systems Instrumentation & Control Systems Modeling and Simulation 3

4 Current Nuclear Energy R&D Programs Address 5 R&D Objectives 4

5 The Big Picture / Energy Growth Net Growth 33% From: IEA WEO

6 Trends that Influence Energy Mix Different issues dominate the choice of energy mix, regionally, nationally, and globally Markets Disruptive Events Change Energy Mix Resources Policies U.S. and world energy picture are fundamentally different. The nuclear market is global Nuclear energy growth in Asia Uncertain future for nuclear growth in the U.S. absent new policies (e.g., CO 2 ) or capital cost reduction History shows the nuclear power industry is highly vulnerable to external factors that, while generally predictable, are often underestimated 6

7 Nuclear Energy Growth in Short to Medium-Term 7

8 Possible Attributes for Large Scale Deployment of Nuclear Energy Less reliance on active safety systems Equals/exceeds current proliferation resistance Non-electric applications Lower capital costs (how much/where), lower investment risk (if possible) Competitive electricity costs (how much/where) Market driven technologies Developed in collaboration with evolving NRC Subject to NRC licensing and regulation Flexibility Resource and waste management Next Advanced Reactor No CO 2 limit LWR s (AP1000, SMRs) X High Temperature Reactors Incremental steps X X Resource and Waste Issues Fast Neutrons CO 2 limit X X X X Future nuclear energy uses might be expanded outside electricity market Future nuclear energy will need to interact with a flexible supply environment Resource issues and waste management are not considered urgent priority today 8

9 The Role of Innovation Status Lengthy timescale from idea to deployment (AP-1000; Nuscale ) Powerful but rigid licensing process Inward looking research community Needs Capture external innovations Rethink licensing approach for novel concepts Accelerate RD&D process Market driven technology 9

10 Possible Trends in Future Nuclear Energy R&D Used fuel management LWR designs (Licensed) Continue support LWR life extension Can/Should LWRs handle variable demand How much? Will this impact life extension? Prepare for/prevent the next nuclear accident Support incremental improvements 10

11 Possible Trends in Future Nuclear Energy R&D Advanced Reactor Designs Reduce capital cost Minimize civil/structural construction and materials Increase modularity Increase passive safety Rethink current advanced concepts in view of emerging needs Support market driven technologies 11

12 Future Nuclear Energy R&D Flexibility (hybrid systems) What percentage of renewables can the grid support without changes to operating nuclear power plants What simple storage solutions can be buffers between renewable energy sources and base load supply, including NPP What industrial applications could vary operations to accept excess energy on the grid Non-electric applications Cyber security Revolutionary (Game changing technologies/advanced technologies) What technologies would completely change the mix energy Is it possible to prepare for or develop these technologies Material science R&D will lead to break through 12

13 Infrastructure for Nuclear Energy R&D Knowledge Management Experience database, learn from previous accidents and R&D programs Provide resource for experimental data, V&V codes Determine what experiments are needed to V&V advanced tools Basic Science Materials Safety Fabrication Construction Techniques Etc. Modeling and Simulation tools Facilities and experimental techniques People 13

14 The National Nuclear Laboratory 14