Energy, Economics and Sustainability

Transcription

1 Energy, Economics and Sustainability Michael J. Kelleher and Timothy Volk SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry Syracuse, New York November 5, 2008

2 World Energy Use Patterns The U.S. uses almost 25% of the world s energy But we are less than 5% of the world s population

3 World Energy Use Exajoules

4 Global Energy Use Energy Consumption and Affluence are Linked (J.R. Fisher, 2005

5 The Global Energy Situation 2025 Oil Projections China/India China 10.9 (million barrels per day) India 5.5 (million barrels per day) (J.R. Fisher, 2005)

6 World primary energy consumption

7 World primary energy consumption

8 Changes in the Artic Ice Sheet

9 History of U.S. Energy Use (EIA 2007)

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11 For every 100 BTUs of energy supplied, 44 BTUs are consumed, and 56 BTUs are lost due to inefficiencies (primarily combustion)

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13 Why Can t We Regulate Our Way There? Million barrels per day Actual Projected Transportation Oil Use NHTSA Proposal 20% CAFE Increase (=28.8 mpg) 40% CAFE Increase (=33.6 mpg) 10 60% CAFE Increase (=38.4 mpg) 5 0 Domestic Production Biofuels Production Initiative CAFE increases include light trucks Beyond 2020, EIA data extrapolated

14 US Fleet Fuel Economy CAFE for US Fleet Peak 26.2 mpg in Miles per gallon Light Trucks Passenger Cars Year vs Total Fleet Year

15 Energy Summary - EtOH from Corn Grain Corn Products Cost x 10 9 cals from 140 bu/acre EtOH DDG Loss Farm Processing % of Energy in Corn 50% of energy in corn grain converted to EtOH; represents ~ 25% of energy in total plant biomass 66% of energy in EtOH is used in its production from grain an inconvenient truth? How useful is co-product DDG? (Duxbury 2007)

16 Michael Wang, Argonne Nat. Lab., 2006

17 U.S. Department of Energy Genome Programs and provide the website

18 U.S. Department of Energy Genome Programs and provide the website

19 Biofuel GHG Balances Fossil C Total GHG Biofuel GHG Fuel Type Emissions Emissions Savings g CO 2 /MJ g CO 2 e/mj % Gas/Diesel EtOH (USA) ~ 68 ~ 20 Biodiesel Rape (UK) Soybean (USA) 19?? Switchgrass 5?? Wood Chips Heat CHP (Duxbury 2007)

20 Sustainable Fuels and More Efficient Use of Resources: The Wood-based Biorefinery Concept

21 Electric Generation: heated gases push engine pistons, converting thermal energy into mechanical energy.

22 U.S. Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2006 Sources: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-906, "Power Plant Report;" and Form EIA-920 "Combined Heat and Power Plant Report."

23 Average Retail Price of Electricity by State, 2006

24 Comparision of Electric Price and CO2 Emmissions Electric Price $/kwh $0.18 $0.16 $0.14 $0.12 $0.10 $0.08 $0.06 $0.04 $0.02 $0.00 New York Georgia West Virginia State CO2 Emmissions Tons/MWH Electric Price CO2 tons/mwh

25 Fuel Cell, Efficient Power and Heat Generation Funded by Grants: NYSERDA US DOE EPRI ~$1.5M ~80% Conversion efficiency 17% of campus electrical requirements

26 Renewable Energy Plays a Role in the Nation s Energy Supply (2007) About Half of States Have Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Renewables Mandates, 2007

27 Renewables (EIA 2007)

28 Energy Economics Why do you buy energy? Price Demand willingness to pay - quantity goes down as price goes up Quantity

29 Demand for Energy is a Derived Demand We want energy services such as heat, cooling, refrigeration, transport. Demand for energy is determined by: Amount of energy service demanded, and Efficiency of energy conversion. Energy conversion requires a capital investment in conversion technology. Car, refrigeration, light fixture (and light bulb), furnace

30 Rational Energy Decisions? Access to information Make good or efficient choices Bounds to the extent that people are rational. When do you see the price of most goods? When do you see the price of electricity? Gas? Do you spend the time to learn and shop to make efficient energy decisions?

31 What is Renewable Energy Any energy resource that is naturally regenerated over a short time scale and derived directly or indirectly from the sun or other natural movements and mechanisms of the environment.

32 Historical Emissions 16 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 8 Historical emissions

33 The Stabilization Triangle 16 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Stabilization Triangle Current path = ramp Easier CO 2 target ~850 ppm Interim Goal 8 Historical emissions Flat path Tougher CO 2 target ~500 ppm

34 Stabilization Wedges 16 8 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Historical emissions Current path = ramp Flat path 16 GtC/y Eight wedges Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today

35 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) 16 GtC/y Fuel Switching (1) CO 2 Capture & Storage (3) Stabilization Triangle 8 GtC/y Nuclear Fission (1) Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Forest and Soil Storage (2)

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