Land-Based Wind Energy in New England

Transcription

1 Environmental Business Council of New England Seminar Series on Land-Based Wind Energy Session 1: Projects, Pipeline & Early Siting Issues - April 2, 2008 Land-Based Wind Energy in New England Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC Bob Grace, Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC Searsburg: 6.6 MW (10 x 660 kw) (NREL PIX database ) Overview The Market: Demand for Wind in New England Land-Based Wind Potential Project Trends Recent Project Highlights Limiting Factors & Barriers What Needs to Happen to Bring More Wind to NE? 3 Recent Demand Drivers for Wind Power CT Expanded Targets NH New Rules, 4 classes incl. solar tier Vermont RE Targets Increasing RPS Requirements (adding to MA, CT, RI) Goals ME New Class 1 RI Energy Independence (15% of load from in-state wind) MA Energy Legislation in conference committee (post-2009 RPS targets, existing tier, hydro eligibility, virtual net metering, etc.) Greenhouse Gas Goals -How will RGGI address new RPS? Targets? -Beyond RGGI New England Gov. s Conf. Goals Other Opportunities Stimulated by Policy Voluntary Demand Long-term contracting (CT, MA, RI, ME) Maine Gov s Wind Power Task Force 4 How Big is The NE Market? (today s policies) ~5500 to 6500 MW in 2020 assuming blend of wind and other RE Could the Market be Twice as Big? Estimate of how much RE needed to meet regional goals (RPS + RGGI + NEGC s GHG) 10,000 20,000 GW Mostly wind ME >> rest of NE Growing Uncertain Range of uncertainty has narrowed with recent events unless 5 From analysis for Maine Governor s Wind Task Force, commissioned by Natural Resources Council of Maine (cofunded by UCS, CLF, EDF, Kendall Foundation) Conducted by Sustainable Energy Advantage, LaCapra Assoc. & AWS Truewind 6 1

2 Wind Potential Where? 7 Land-Based Wind Potential How Much? Total MW ( ( ( ( (>800 Power Range W/m 2 ) W/m 2 ) W/m 2 ) W/m 2 ) W/m 2 ) State Total Maine 3, ,564 Vermont 1, ,117 New Hampshire ,594 Massachusetts ,122 Connecticut Rhode Island Grand Total This is one case many scenarios possible 9,426 Analysis presented to ME Gov s Wind Task Force winter 07/08 Commissioned by Natural Resources Council of Maine (co-funded by UCS, CLF, EDF, Kendall Foundation) By Sustainable Energy Advantage, AWS Truewind & LaCapra Assoc. Based on density of 7.5 MW/km 2 8 Project Size Largest Operating New RE in NE Hull 1 (photo credit: Bob Grace) WIND PROJECT DEVELOPMENT TRENDS Mars Hill/Evergreen (28 x 1.5 MW) 9 10 vantage Renewable (proprietary briefing) Source: Sustainable Energy Adv Energy Market Outlook 2007#3 ( Premium RE Development Pipeline What & Where? 366 projects or aggregations 4569 MW Total 11 Small Projects Proliferating Community-scale & Customer-Sited lots of activity! Customer-sited Net Metering Limits Programmatic support MTCLORI MA Energy legislation proposes virtual net metering RPS carve-out for MA behind-the-meter Comparison of current, proposed, and recently adopted net metering thresholds (kw) Source: New England Wind Forum newsletter #3 generation? 12 2

3 Wind Power Development Pipeline Tip of the Iceberg Other Important Trends Much of project pipeline requires network transmission expansion/enhancement (ME, NH) Increased tolerance for merchant risk (who? why?) Equipment availability issues opportunities exceed equipment; Impacts delays and cost Permitting appeals common PTC extension uncertainty interfering with 09 lead times Public power s increasing role (investor w/long-term view) MMWEC s Wind Coop Berkshire, Princeton Siting dominates economics in development order Source: Sustainable Energy Advantage Proprietary Database; to be published in upcoming New England Wind Forum newsletter # Recent Approvals/Moving Forward Jiminy Peak (MA) 1.5 MW (photo credit: Sally Wright) PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS Kibby Wind Power Project (ME) 132 MW Stetson Ridge Wind Project (ME) 57 MW Lempster Wind Project (NH) 24 MW Berkshire Wind (MA) 15 MW purchase by MMWEC 2 lawsuits expected to be resolved 4.5 MW Beaver Ridge Wind Project (ME) Appeal to building permit denied CES partners w/ Jay Cashman to install 3 GE turbines in 08/09 Princeton (MA) 3.0 MW 15 Photo Credits: Mars Hill & Stetson: David Wilby, IEPM Stetson (38 x 1.5 MW) 16 Ongoing Appeals UPC s Sheffield Wind (VT) 40 MW approved but appealed Ibedrola s Hoosac Wind (MA) 30 MW initial iti appeal denied d higher appeal drags on Recently Hit the Wall Maine Mountain Wind (a.k.a. Black Nubble, Redington) (ME) 90/54 MW ME LURC denied rezoning petition East Haven (VT) 6 MW VT PSB rejects Section 248 Public Good application Orleans (MA) 3.3 MW wind Town Water Board (site host) pulls out citing insufficient financial benefits

4 Community-Scale Milestones Community scale (MA) examples: Holy Name High School, Williams Stone Co.; Forbes Park all preparing to install 600 kw wind turbines Several 100 kw installations slated for 2008 Varian Semiconductor, MA Military Res. approved, seek turbines Received IRS CREBs authorizations (zero-interest bonds) Templeton, Chester, Medford, Ipswich (MA) Barrington, Portsmouth, Narragansett Bay Commission (RI) 3 MW Fairhaven (MA) Negotiating for MTC s 2 turbines formerly slated for Orleans 12.5 MW Minuteman Wind (MA) Secured local bylaw change Wind Projects in New England (from: New England Wind Forum) To drill down on map detail, see: Limiting Factors & Barriers Windy land (how much?) Siting/public acceptance Exacerbated by info gaps, conflicting info, misinformation Transmission to interconnect, get to market, and integrate effectively (congestion/reserves) Grid integration at high penetration Questions raised by recent Texas incident Equipment Availability Federal Production Tax Credit extension uncertainty TO BRING MORE WIND TO NEW ENGLAND Maine Wind Task Force Recommendations (Feb. 2008) Multi-stakeholder consensus recommendations Setting 2/3 of state for expedited permitting ME goal: 3000 MW Wind by 2020 Other states should do their part! Implementing legislation just filed, on fast track Increased attention to proposals for renewables-related transmission But most of windiest areas not in the expedited permitting areas 23 Transmission Network expansions or upgrades needed for wind, especially in northern Maine, New Hampshire Policy & Planning Disconnect: ISO planning fails to incorporate State policy mandates Transmission for renewables often fails both reliability & economic tests applied by ISO Challenges = chicken & egg, cost allocation Other regions figured out how to link policy, planning California: renewable trunk lines (Tehachapi) Texas & Colorado: CREZs and ERZs Transmission infrastructure authorities (WY, ID, SD, NM, KS, CO) Thanks to Jose Rotger, ESAI for slide contents! 24 4

5 Proposals for Transmission Expansion (unlikely before 2013) CREZs?? Presented by Jim Robb, Northeast Utilities, Creating Benefits for New England: Putting the Pieces Together, Power from the North - MA Restructuring Roundtable, 2/29/09 25 Grid Integration Negligible issue at low % of load As wind penetration grows, esp. in constrained areas, are there reliability & cost issues? Studies elsewhere conclude high penetration (~10-20%) show reliability is maintained at modest costs to integrate wind ~5-10% of value of wind energy (e.g. operating reserves) Central wind forecasting improves integration (CA) ISO-NE Integration study planned (2009?) ISO hires Manager of Renewable Resource Integration 26 Good Information Helps Good Decisions New England Wind Forum web site and newsletter - NREL/DOE s Wind Powering America Program Thanks! Forbes Park in Chelsea, MA (photo credit: Boreal Renewable Energy Development) Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC 10 Speen Street, 3 rd Floor Framingham, MA bgrace@seadvantage.com