! Problem formulation and sustainability assessment needs. ! Data: current status and gaps

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2 ! Problem formulation and sustainability assessment needs! Data: current status and gaps! How can models and other tools help to gain and disseminate insights! How to convince users and what can we learn from them?

3 definition of sustainability is still a topic of discussion.. We think that the following provided by the EPA fits well (note that the first part is from 1864)! Everything that we need for our survival and well-being depends, either directly or indirectly, on our natural environment *. To pursue sustainability is to create and maintain the conditions under which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony to support present and future generations.! National Research Council s report Sustainability and the US EPA (2011).! *Marsh, G.P Man and Nature; or, Physical Geography as Modified by Human Action. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

4 ! Climate change: Earth = very complex system! Demographic change/distribution/population growth: people move in function of needs and direct opportunities! Energy consumption/limitation! Food consumption: diversity and quality expectations resulting in transport and waste issues! Behavior of consumption and life style changes: pharmaceuticals, pesticides, very complex cocktails! Policy regulations: e.g. political games rule the arena => Code Napoleon (200 years) still rules in Belgium (a good old fashioned sword fight, even in Star Wars)

5 2015 is approaching Oops, passed by how can we meet the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive... at the lowest costs?! 5

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9 Needs for DSS tools Monitoring Modelling Responses management

10 ! Easy general definition, but many practical faces! We need to look at all aspects of implementation: convincing people and legislation as key bottle necks (rather than reliability of models?)! Role of models to inspire than to optimize? But do we have relevant data and are models enough used?

11 ! Problem formulation and sustainability assessment needs! Data: current status and gaps! How can models and other tools help to gain and disseminate insights! How to convince users and what can we learn from them?

12 ! How does a biological water quality assessment system work? 1. sampling the location 2. calculating the assessment method location to assess Taxon Count Tubificidae 20 Dreissena 8 Potamopyrgus 30 Gammaridae 100 Palaemonidae 12 Chironomidae NTP 3 list of species/taxa found (quantitative/qualitative) index 1 0 final assessment 12

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18 R 2 = 0.42±0.02 R 2 = 0.42±

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20 ! Basic data: do they serve our needs to gain the necessary insights?! Basic data are even not collected in many countries (developing countries)! Systems are changing rapidly! Many key data are not collected or available: relevant decisions?

21 ! Problem formulation and sustainability assessment needs! Data: current status and gaps! How can models and other tools help to gain and disseminate insights! How to convince users and what can we learn from them?

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23 Monitoring Data interpretation, assessment Modelling Management Simulations of management options Develop monitoring networks 23

24 River ecology River water quality Sewer and treatment plant

25 Selection of general mitigation options Representation of chemical and ecological water quality Selection of local mitigation options (water body specific) Presentation of the predicted ecological river basin quality and related costs 2 5

26 Implementation of measures EQR (-) Water body number (-) EQR_BOD EQR_P EQR_v EQR_s Overall EQR WWTP: Reducing BOD 5 concentration

27 Solar energy and water for drinking water production, food production (irrigation) or hydropower energy production?

28 ! Not only problem of necessary data! Challenges for integration/coupling of models: system component specific approaches! The system changes rapidly! Perhaps not that unexpected that models are not commonly used?

29 ! Problem formulation and sustainability assessment needs! Data: current status and gaps! How can models and other tools help to gain and disseminate insights! How to convince users and what can we learn from them?

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31 Objectives (examples) Yield Biodiversity Biodiversity Trade-off Multifunctionality! What is the capacity of the landscape? Where are the limits?! What can be improved without reducing the other objective? # " Inefficient solution Pareto front Ecosystem service (Yield)

32 Geo-physical system Limitations and opportunities Where are the geo-physical opportunities and limitations situated? Supply of ESS Land, soil and water management Limitations and opportunities How can we increase the delivery of ESSbundles? Where to look? Search zones for the realisation of additional ESS on the basis of ESS demand mapping Mismatch? Demand for ESS How to realise? Which are the juridical and administrative limitations and opportunities to realise changes in land, soil and water management? Socio-economic system

33 BiodivERsA-Project Coordinator: M. Volk

34 ! 6 million inhabitants! km² 25 % urbanized 53 % agriculture 10 % multifunctional forest 6 % nature 34

35 Accurately quantify and value the potential impact of changes in land, soil and water management practices on ecosystem services Compare the context and state of ecosystems and their services after implementation of management practices

36 Level 1: Static ES-demand, ES-supply mapping (2013) First version by end of 2013 Maps of baseline scenarios Database of Maps Level 2: Scenario exploration tool (BBN) First version by end of 2014 Assessment of land-use/land-cover changes Scenario exploration Quickscan Model Level 3: Scenario assessment tool More detailed quantification and valuation Changes in land, soil and water management Validation, modelling, monitoring Planning processes Full Model DUPLO DUPLO LEGO LEGO LEGO TECHNICS LEGO TECHNICS

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41 ! Taking step back in technical reliability, and two steps ahead towards users: credibility + visualisation! Getting feedback on what stakeholders need and want from models: inspiration and exploring rather than optimisation

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43 We need to get a better understanding of water systems and natural resources: functioning and cascades of impacts Better dissemination of knowledge needed to convince policy makers, stakeholders and users: and learn from their use We need support tools a basis to:! illustrate how essential components of human life are interacting! understandable and acceptable by people + visualisation

44 ! The journal facilitates the confrontation and integration of scientific knowledge and policy development related to water quality and ecology.! Contributions that design and evaluate adaptive and applied water policies at all levels are encouraged.! Emphasis is given to the development of monitoring, assessment and modeling tools to analyze and optimize science-policy interacting mechanisms

45 ! July 10 16, 2015! Session D10: The role of modelling in sustainable development