Challenges and Adaptation. Camyale Chao

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Extreme Weather: Challenges and Adaptation Camyale Chao

2 Resource: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 Global Warming Trend

3 Trend 1. Climate warming and frequent weather extremes Unstoppable Climate extremes, such as heat waves, severe storms and droughts, have been observed to increase significantly over most regions of the world in the last few decades. But climate extreme events are very difficult to predict. Therefore, IPCC2007 has been very conservative in projecting/predicting future changes in extreme climate events.

4 Top 20 typhoons with extreme heavy rain in last 40 years Extreme heavy rain for top 20 Typhoons: Before year 2000 => once per every 3~4 years After year 2000 => once per year or more. Taiwan has suffered greatly from serious flooding and huge mud slide disasters and in an increasing trend.

5 Trend 2. Global collaboration of the reduction of GHG emission: On going for new protocol in sight. We need to work on something all together

6 Climate Change issues Development 1979 World Climate Conference Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1990 World Climate Conference Earth Summit 1994 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2007 IPCC AR World Climate Conference COP17 in Durban

7 UNFCCC/COP17 in Durban, South Africa 195 Parties and hundreds IGO/NGO participated the conference

8 High Level Segment / Ministerial Meeting The Conference drew over 12,480 participants, including over 5400 government officials, 5800 representatives of UN bodies and agencies, intergovernmental organizations and civil society organizations, and more than 1200 members of the media.

9 Establishment of a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol for 5 yrs Long-term cooperative action under the Convention Legal force applicable to all parties to the Convention by 2020 Green Climate Fund

10 Global l Perspective

11 Global Framework for Climate Service Reduce the vulnerability of society to climate-related hazards through h better use of climate information. Advance the key global l development goals through h better use of climate information. Mainstream the use of climate information in decision-making making. Ensure better uptake, understanding of, and awareness of the need for climate information and climate services. Demonstrate the value of the services in terms of socio-economics, safety, and sustainability.

12 Global Framework for Climate Service Strengthen the engagement of providers and users of climate services. Build up relationships between providers and users of climate services at both the technical and decisionmaking levels. Maximise the utility of existing climate service infrastructure. Improve coordination, and strengthen and build this infrastructure t where needed. d

13 The Functional Components of GFCS

14 Users Government, Business, Research, Agriculture, Water, Health, Construction, Disaster Reduction, Environment, Tourism, Transportation, Energy, Urban Planning etc.

15 Question: We Need Adaptation Policies, and How Do We Make?

16 Rational Choice Policy Making Process Satisficing Choice Model: Herbert Simon(1955) Bounded Rationality Incremental Model: Charles Lindblom (1959) Muddling Through Garbage Can Model: Cohen, March and Olsen (1972) Problematic Preferences, Unclear Technology, Fluid Participation

17 Facing climate change uncertainty, what is the current decision i making process?

18 National Adaptation Strategy of Taiwan June 2012 Improve Land Use and Management Improve Disaster Prevention and Socio- Economic System Capability Comprehensive p Water Resource Governance Monitoring High Vulnerable Area Upgrade Adaptation Capacity in Urban Area

19 Conclusion Consider the Uncertainty Improve p Decision Making Process Well Use Weather Information Better Climate Service

20 Thank You