Communicating scientific forecasting techniques to end users

Transcription

1 Communicating scientific forecasting techniques to end users for CIFDP Project Bangladesh Khan R. Rahaman (Wilfrid Laurier University) Val Swail (Environment Canada) Boram Lee (World Meteorological Organization)

2 Content. Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) Why is CIFDP important for countries with coastal areas? User Requirements Plan (URP) in CIFDP framework Case Study Bangladesh Conclusion Questions and comments.

3 Casualties by cyclones and flood (Until 2008) Source: WMO, 2012.

4 CIFDP With a view to improving safety related services for the community, as a fundamental priority of the WMO, the Joint WMO IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM ) and the WMO Commission for Hydrology (CHy) have initiated this Project in order to meet the challenges of coastal communities safety and socio economic sustainability through the development of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems at the regional scale.

5 User Requirements Plan (URP) There are five phases of the CIFDP Project: Phase 0 : Project preparation Phase 1 : Information gathering Project Adaptation Phase 2 : System Development / Implementation Phase 3 : Pre operational Testing and Capacity Development Phase 4 : Live Running and Evaluation URP, reviewed at each Phase of the CIFDP implementation, is to compile high level inventory of the institutional end users information and communication needs for emergency management before/during/after extreme coastal flooding events.

6 Status The CIFDP was initiated in 2009 It facilitates the implementation of integrated forecasting and warning systems to protect from coastal inundation in disaster prone countries Sub Project under way in Fiji, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Caribbean URP is a part of implementing CIFDP Sub Project in each country and to involve stakeholders for effective communication

7 What would URP facilitate? Transferring technology Enhancing the communication system Empowering the responsibilities of government organizations Developing capacity of the professionals at local, regional and national level

8 URP A stand alone system? URP is not a stand alone system in CIFDP It does not recommend changes of the existing system It is a tool to enhance existing system that a country has, with more input It enhances the communication among national agencies and stakeholders working in the same area

9 Bangladesh Case Study for URP Almost 785 km long coastal area At least 3 major cyclones each year. Coastal inundation is also bringing salt water intrusion and threats to coastal settlement Almost 20 million coastal people at risk

10 Respondents to our questionnaire! Respondents Need for forecasting and warning system (CIFDP) Water Development Board Bangladesh Meteorological Department Department of Disaster Management Yes Yes Yes

11 Cyclone warning dissemination processes

12 Signals in Numbers

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16 Tropical Cyclone Warning

17 How does it work in the field?

18 Responsible authorities for collecting records and data Socio-economic Data Technical Data DMB BMD District City Corporation Municipality Technical Staffs Data Other Ministries Upazilla/Sub-districts Field Staffs Field Staffs Union office

19 Concluding remarks CIFDP is to enhance the existing mechanism for coastal inundation forecasting and warning, not to create new structure/system Emphasizing the need of stakeholders involvement in each steps of decision making URP stresses the need of stakeholders participation in the project implementation Recommending capacity development opportunities for the technical people in the local government level Collaborate with stakeholders for understanding the meaning of signals and warnings

20 Questions and Answers. Thank you very much.