Climate change is having an impact now!

Transcription

1 Climate change is having an impact now! Andrew WATT, EUROCONTROL ART Workshop: Weather and Atmospheric Science University of Westminster, 25 th April 2017

2 Key impacts for aviation 2

3 Different stakeholders: different impacts Climate Impact Impact Area En-route airport operations airport infrastruture Precipitation change Temperature change disruption to operations e.g. airfield flooding, ground subsidence, reduction in airport throughput Changes in performance / noise impact drainage system capacity inundation of underground infrastructure e.g. electrical inundation of ground surface access heat damage to airport surface (runway, taxiway) increased heating and cooling requirements Sea-level rise Wind changes Extreme events Impact on en-route capacity due to loss of ground capacity loss of airport capacity loss of airport infrastructure convective weather: disruption to operations, route extensions jet stream: increase in en-route turbulence convective weather: disruption to operations local wind patterns: disruption to operations, changes to distribution of noise impact damage to infrastructure disruption to operations, route extensions disruption to operations damage to infrastructure Source: based on ACI-EUROPE, AEN, DGAC, EUROCONTROL, LHR, MMU, NATS (2014)

4 Overview of impacts 4

5 Growth and adaptation: a double challenge Projected changes in annual near-surface temperature (relative mean) Projected changes in annual precipitation (relative mean) Traffic Growth: by State 5 5

6 Climate Change: is it happening now? Well we can t associate it with specific events but 6

7 Hurricane Sandy 2012 Cancellation of nearly 17, 000 flights 20M USD hit for just one US airline Total impact on airline revenues: USD 0.5 billion. (IATA, 2012) 7

8 And it s only going to get worse IPCC AR5 (2013) Summary for Policy Makers figure SPM-8 The time to act is now! 8

9 What does it tell us? What are the key risks for aviation? How can you assess whether climate change is a risk for your organisation? What are other organisations doing (case-studies) Where can you get further information (resource list) Website with additional information 9

10 Risk assessment: where to start? Do you know how the climate will change in your area? Can your drainage system handle any projected increase in rainfall? Do you know how much it will cost to implement the climate adaptation measures you need? Will local climatic changes increase or decrease tourism demand in your region? Can your cooling system handle any projected increase in temperature? Can your electricity supply and critical systems (e.g. IT) be maintained in more frequent and extreme disruptive weather? Can ground access to the airport be guaranteed in case of increased precipitation (rain or snow) Who is responsible for climate change adaptation within your organisation? 10

11 Understanding Assessing the EUROCONTROL / MMU Workshop 09/15 the problem problem Adapting aviation: Identifying future priorities Top priorities for action Actions to adapt Communication and collaboration

12 Global challenge: global action ICAO Environment Committee ISG Knowledge on impacts from a science perspective Knowledge on risk and resilience WG2 Update to airport planning manual WG2 Climate Adaptation Synthesis

13 Adapting aviation to a changing climate: what do we need to do? What we need to do: Identify risks and vulnerabilities: global, regional, local Risk assesement is a good place to start Implementation of local and network resilience measures Build resilience into current infrastructure and operations planning: routine part of operational and business planning Balance resilience, costs and criticality Don t forget cascading effects. No-regrets and soft measures (e.g. training) are cost-effective Premptive action can be cost-effective but don t act in haste! And what next? Global industry = global perspective Uncertainties remain: what else do we need to know? Quantification of risks into operational impacts Communication and collaboration 13 Information and awareness-raising is key