Tribal Climate Change Webinar Series

Transcription

1 Tribal Climate Change Webinar Series June-July 2013 Hosted by Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals Northern Arizona University 1

2 Tribal Climate Change Webinar Series June 13: Climate Change What it is and why it s important June 18: Indicators of Climate Change June 25: Climate Change Impacts on Tribes July 12: Climate Change Outreach and Education For more information about the webinars: 2

3 Contact us at: Sue Wotkyns Climate Change Program Manager Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals Cristina González-Maddux Research Specialist For more information about ITEP, please visit our website: 3

4 Climate Change The Basics Zack Guido Research Staff Scientist Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) 4

5 Climate Change 101(+): An overview of the climate system, observations & projections ITEP Climate Change Webinar Series (part 1) June 13 Zack Guido Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS)

6 Big Picture Outline 1. The Climate System (20 mins + 5 for Q&A) 2. Observations (15 mins + 5 for Q&A) 3. Projections (15 mins + 10 for Q&A)

7 In the Next 20 mins 1. Why we care 2. How the climate system works 3. Energy Balance 4. Paleoclimate 5. Greenhouse gasses

8 The Rio Grande 1. Why we care AZ NM

9 Acre Feet (1000s) The Rio Grande 1. Why we care AZ NM 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

10 Acre Feet (1000s) The Rio Grande 1. Why we care AZ NM 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

11 1. Why we care Food supply

12 1. Why we care Food supply Water supply

13 1. Why we care Food supply Water supply Disasters

14 Sun Drives Circulation 2. The Climate System Image from

15 342 W/m2 Energy Balance 2. The Climate System Solar Constant = 1370 W/m 2 Image from

16 Energy Balance: Sun drives the climate system and is moderated by GHG Energy Balance After reflection: 235 Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997

17 4. Paleoclimate Warmer Climates; High Solar Radiation Glaciation; Low Solar Radiation Petit et al. 1999; Siegenthaler et al. 2005

18 4. Paleoclimate

19 Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from:

20 Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from:

21 Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from:

22 Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from:

23 Orbital changes 4. Paleoclimate Images obtained from:

24 2010 ties 2005 as the warmest year in the 131-year instrumental record NASA, Jan

25 Temperature and CO2 in lockstep 5. greenhouse gasses 398 Image courtesy of Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Science

26 April 2013: greenhouse gasses

27 5. greenhouse gasses IPCC, 2007 GHG emitted by humans (data for 2004) IPCC, % CO 2

28 In greenhouse gasses

29 5. greenhouse gasses Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ave) 8.3 ± 0.4 GtC/yr 90% 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC/yr 46% 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC/yr ± 0.5 GtC/yr 10% 28% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components Global Carbon Project 2012: ± 0.5 GtC/yr 26%

30 Summary Sun s energy sets up atmospheric circulation GHG moderate the energy within our atmosphere Climate changes over longer timescales influenced by orbital changes Over periods important to humans, GHG play major role

31 In the next 15 mins: Observations 1. Temp 2. Feedbacks 3. Impacts 4. Extreme events

32 Some definitions What s the difference between weather & climate? Weather is the conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time Climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time. - NASA

33 Some definitions What s the difference between weather & climate? Weather is the conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time Climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time. - NASA Isn t climate just made up of a whole bunch of tiny weathers? Stephen Colbert

34 ~ 1.33 F (~0.7 C) global temperature rise in last century 1. Temp 2010 ties 2005 as the warmest year in the 131- year instrumental record (NASA, Jan 2011) NASA, GISS

35 Global Temperature Movie: 1. Temp

36 1. Temp

37 1. Temp Temperature changes are not same across geographies Polar Amplification

38 2. Feedbacks Why Polar Amplification? Feedbacks Positive Feedback: Stock market decline more selling more stock declines

39 2. Feedbacks Why Polar Amplification? Feedbacks Negative Feedback: Stock market decline good opportunity to buy stocks stabilize

40 Reflectivity (Albedo) 2. Feedbacks Images from: NASA

41 3. impacts Arctic Sea Ice on the decline: NSIDC:

42 Growing season for SW increased ~7% (17 days) during compared to 20 th century ave. 3. impacts From SW Climate Assessment Report, 2013 Data for AZ, NM, UT, CO, NV, CA

43 Winter Trends: Less Snow, More Rain Most important at low-to-mid elevations (<8,500) 3. impacts More Rain, Less Snow More Snow, Less Rain Data: NOAA Co-op Network Courtesy of Noah Knowles, USGS

44 Water Supply 3. impacts Fire

45 People matter: impacts emerge from interaction of people and climate 3. impacts

46 What about Extreme Events? 4. Extr Events

47 MOVIE Steriods and Climate 4. Extr Events

48 4. Extr Events Extremes getting Extremer: Jun-Aug temp anomalies over NH Land Hansen et al., 2012, PNAS

49 Summary Temperature on the rise: global increase ~1.33 F Feedbacks can amplify or dampen change Impacts across many sectors, including agr, snow packs, etc. Some evidence for increasing extreme events, most notably in temperatures

50 In the next 15 mins: Projections 1. Models 2. Temperature & Precipitation 3. Extreme events 4. Impacts

51 Models: 1. Models Imperfect representations of reality, but useful for some things

52 How Climate Models Work 1. Models Physical processes Energy Balance

53 1. Models The moving parts IPCC, 2007

54 1. Models GHG Trajectories SRES, IPCC 2007

55 Temperature Projection 2. T & P Annual average temperature projections relative to baseline (IPCC 2007)

56 Temperature Projection 2. T & P Similar climate change Divergent paths Annual average temperature projections relative to baseline (IPCC 2007)

57 2. T & P A2 B1 mid- and latecentury warming over the US under higher (A2) and lower (B1) scenarios Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press.

58 Precipitation 2. T & P SW Climate Assess. Report, 2013

59 Cooler periods within warming trend 2. T & P Meehl, 2011, Nature Climate Change

60 2. T & P Winter (Oct-Mar) Drying in Southwest 24 models using A1B Seager R, Vecchi G A PNAS 2010;107:

61 3. Extremes Intensification of hot Extremes A1B Scenario Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, 2010, GRL HOTTEST SUMMER = hottest summer between HEAT WAVE = Longest heat wave in period

62 4. Impacts Water Supply Fire Drought

63 Summary Models are imperfect but do some things well Temperatures very likely to increase Dry places get drier and wet places wetter Extreme events will likely increase in frequency, intensity, and/or both

64 Questions?