A Short Primer on the PRISM2 DSS

Transcription

1 A Short Primer on the PRISM2 DSS Paul Conrads, USGS Drought and Salinity Intrusion Workshop December 14, 2011

2 Memory Lane

3 Memory Lane 2002

4 Quiet Desperation Bull Creek Intake

5 Fast Forward FERC Re-licensing

6 PRISM: Controlled Releases Effect on Salinity Intrusion What causes the large salinity intrusions along the coast? What is the minimum flow to control salinity intrusion? Is there enough water in NC to control salinity intrusions?

7 Data Mining The physics is manifested in the data Learn/quantify important cause-effect relations Data driven models are virtual processes evaluate alternatives

8 Description of the Salinity Models Cascading models Decomposed Water-level signal 1 st Simulates daily SC response 2 nd simulates hourly SC response

9 Input Data for Models Riverine Flows Pee Dee* Little Pee Dee Lynches Black Waccamaw Freshwater Saltwater Tidal Forcing Mean Water level Tidal Range Little River Inlet Note: Specific conductance is not used as an input *User controlled input

10 SC Model Hagley Landing Black measured Gray simulated

11 Model Performance Pawleys Island

12 Decision Support Systems Models embedded in an Excel application Integrates: Historical database Models and model controls Streaming graphics Optimization routines Simulation outputs Excel levels the technical playing field

13 DSS Architecture

14 Graphical User Interface

15 Application Controls Simulation controls period and time step Flow control percent historical or constant Input data Wind speed and direction Water levels Flows

16 Graphical Display Specific Conductance daily predictions Actual data black Model prediction red User specified condition green Difference b/w user and actual - gray Input data - wind, water level, and flow Specific Conductance hourly predictions

17 Looking Inside the Black Box 3D response surfaces Surface created by ANN model Unseen variables set to constant value Manifestation of historical behavior of system Insight to the process dynamics or physics

18 What Conditions Cause Large Intrusions? 3-D Response surface Q, XWL, and SC Low water High water Low Coastal Water Level High Coastal Water Level

19 Convergence of Conditions

20 PRISM2: Threaten Intakes along SE Coast Due to Climate Change Sea-level rise Changing streamflow patterns Inputs from GCMs

21 PRISM > PRISM2 User control of uncontrolled and controlled rivers User control to bias sea levels User specified hydrographs for rivers

22 PRISM2: User Controls Riverine Flows Pee Dee* Little Pee Dee* Lynches* Black* Waccamaw* Freshwater Saltwater Tidal Forcing Mean Water level* Tidal Range Little River Inlet * User controlled inputs

23 Conceptual Model Global & regional circulation models Precipitation Temperature Gridded rainfall input to watershed model Watershed model Salinity intrusion model <Sea-level rise

24 Data Stream Geo Data Portal GCM downscale data Precipitation Temperature HSPF Watershed model PRISM2 <Sea-level rise

25 Upload shape file of study area Climate data for each subwatersheds 25

26 Configure retrieval statistics/format Pull data for any number of models and scenarios User-defined climate projection period 26

27 PRISM2: Splash Page

28 Run Page

29 Input Set Points Page

30 User Defined Hydrographs

31 Output 132 output columns All input values All input setting Measured values at each gage Model Output Measured User specified Delta Measured + delta Daily & hourly values

32 Results Sea-level Rise Grand Strand Pawleys Island Gage Simulated a 0.5, 1.5, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 ft SLR 14 year simulation Comment on extrapolation Large range in historical data annual coastal water levels Lower ranges of SLR (<2.0 ft) within range of historical data

33 Output Example 25% Reduced Flows

34 Flows and Delta SC

35 Sea-level rise projections Springmaid Pier Modified NRC-III Modified NRC-II Modified NRC-I Local Trend Analysis based on USACE methodology

36 Multiple Model Runs Results - SLR Grand Strand Pawleys Island Gage 14 year simulation 0.5 ft incremental SLR up to 3 ft

37 Results SLR & Reduced fow Grand Strand Pawleys Island Gage Reduced flows by 5% up to %25

38 Pee Dee Flows Waccamaw Flows Pee Dee, Wacammaw and AIW System Behavior Tidal range 4 ft Tidal range 3 ft Freshwater slug Figure 1. Study area including the Pee Dee and Waccamaw River Basins and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway in South Carolina. With sea-level rise, appears that it will push more freshwater to the north. Water level rises in the slug and forces more water to the north and pushes out the salt.

39 South End Response

40 North End Response

41 Paul Conrads USGS South Carolina Science Center