Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin

Transcription

1 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 1 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 2015

2 2 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Expert group: V. N. Korneev, А. А. Volchak, L. N. Hertman, I.P. Usava, V. N. Anufriev, A. V. Pakhomau, I. E. Rusaya, I. A. Bulak, E. P. Bahadziazh, S. A. Dubenok, S. V. Zavyalov, A. N. Rachevsky (Republic of Belarus); E. Rimkus, E. Stonevičius, А. Šepikas (Republic of Lithuania); P. Buijs (independent expert); G. Crema (independent expert), N. B. Denisov, (Zoï Environment Network), S. Koeppel (UNECE). The Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin / United Nations Development Programme in Belarus and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe; V. N. Korneev, А. А. Volchak et al. Brest, p. 64 The Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin has been developed under the international project River Basin Management and Climate Change Adaptation in the Neman River Basin and «Linking environment and security» with support of the Governments of Sweden and Finland through the Environment and Security Initiative. The project was implemented by the United Nations Development Programme in Belarus and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. This publication is not for sale. The electronic version of the document is available on the following webpages: and Composite author, 2015 Design, Ardytskaya V., 2015 Editor, Simon Mikio Lewis, 2015 United Nations Development Programme in Belarus, 2015

3 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 3 Table of Contents Acknowledgments...5 Forewords...6 Preface...8 Chapter 1 Background...10 Chapter 2 General Characteristics of the Neman River Basin Geographical Location and Hydrographic Characteristics Water Resources Climate Population Industry Ecological Status of Water Bodies Environmental Problems Basin Cooperation Tendencies and Prospects...17 Chapter 3 Observable Changes in Climate and Runoff in the Neman River Basin Observable Climate Change Observable Changes of Runoff...19 Chapter 4 Forecasting Climate Change for the Neman River Basin Climate Change Scenarios Climate Change Forecasts...21 Chapter 5 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and other Related Natural Resources and Industries in the Neman River Basin The Impact of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources Forecast of Runoff Change Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena Assessment of the Uncertainties in Forecasting the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources...29

4 4 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Forecasting the Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Quality Summary of the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources General Characteristics of the Impact of Climate Change on Natural Resources and Industries in the Context of Their Interrelation with Water Resources...31 Chapter 6 Assessment of the Vulnerability of Water Resources and Related Natural Resources and Industries to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin...36 Chapter 7 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change General Principles of Adaptation and Existing Tools in the Sphere of Water Resources Management and Climate Change Adaptation General Characteristics of the Strategic Framework...44 Chapter 8 Elaboration and Implementation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies...48 References...51 ANNEX А List of main regulatory acts and other ecological policy tools...53 ANNEX B Review of measures within the strategic framework for adaptation to climate change in the Neman river basin...54

5 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 5 Acknowledgments The Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin (hereinafter the Strategic Framework ) has been developed under the international project River Basin Management and Climate Change Adaptation in the Neman River Basin (hereinafter the Project ). The Project was implemented between 2012 and 2014 under the Program of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and with support from the international Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in the Republic of Belarus. This document has been developed based on the outcomes of the above Project 1, in whose implementation a team consisting of the following experts was involved: V. N. Korneev, A. A. Volchak, L. N. Hertman, I. P. Usava, V. N. Anufriev, A. V. Pakhomau, I. E. Rusaya, I. A. Bulak, E. P. Bahadziazh, S. A. Dubenok (Republic of Belarus), Egidijus Rimkus, Edvinas Stonevičius, Audrius Šepikas (Republic of Lithuania), Paul Buijs (the Netherlands) and Givanni Crema (Italy). The following experts provided support and substantial methodological assistance in the course of the implementation of the Project and the development of the Strategic Framework: N. B. Denisov (Zoi Environment Network, Geneva, Switzerland), Sonja Koeppel (Secretariat of the UNECE Convention on Transboundary Waters), S. V. Zavyalov (Head, Department of Atmospheric Air and Water Resources Impact Control, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus), A. N. Rachevsky (Deputy Head, International Cooperation and Perspective Planning Service, State Institution Republican Hydrometeorological Center, Republic of Belarus), I. I. Tchoulba (UNDP Ecological and Sustainable Energy Project Coordinator in Belarus). Papers on the Regional Climate Strategy of Kaliningrad Oblast prepared by B. V. Chubarenko, N. V. Shchagina and O. P. Mikhailova (Atlantic Division of the P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences) were used in formulating the Strategic Framework [1]. Acknowledgement is given by the authors to the experts of the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania for their review and support of this Strategic Framework. 1 The Project s outcomes are presented on the UNECE website, in the section entitled Transboundary Pilot Projects on Climate Change Adaptation, at:

6 6 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Forewords The Republic of Belarus was one of the first countries to sign the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on 11 June The Republic of Belarus ratified this Convention by Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus No. 177, dated 10 April The convention entered into force for the Republic of Belarus on 9 August Since 2005, the Republic of Belarus has been a Party to the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Activities to mitigate the impact of climate change and allow swifter adaptation, including studies on climate change, are prioritized in a number of documents at various legal levels that are important for Belarus s development. The National Strategy of Sustainable Socio-Economic Development in the Republic of Belarus until 2020 is the most significant and comprehensive policy document for the Republic of Belarus. Increasing the efficiency of water utilization and improving the quality of water resources, in balance with the public s needs and projected climate change, are strategic goals in the sphere of conservation of the country s water resources. Issues related to the climate change challenge were fixed in the Water Strategy of the Republic of Belarus until 2020 and the State Program of Climate Change Mitigation Measures until According to the Water Strategy the issues of estimation and use of transboundary watercourses in the river basins with account of European approaches and in the context of the climate change adaptation have not been adequately addressed. The State Program of measures stipulates that the main climate change adaptation activities in the sphere of water resources should include: an assessment of the vulnerability of specific regions to the climate change; development of sectoral climate change adaptation strategies by national bodies of state administration; implementation of these strategies; and mitigation of the impact of climate change-related dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena, including through the elaboration of methods for estimating risks and damage and also scenarios for adaptation to such phenomena. Given the transboundary character of all large rivers in Belarus, the problems related to the impact of climate change on water resources need to be addressed jointly with other states located in these basins. The Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin was developed within the framework of the International Technical Assistance Project River Basin Management and Climate Change Adaptation in the Neman River Basin. It is the first document aimed at improving the management of integrated water resources in the context of the climate change, using the basin approach at the international level. Igar Kachanovsky Deputy Minister, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus

7 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 7 The increasing impact of a changing climate is leading to growing international concern. This effect is very diverse and includes both natural systems and the social sphere. Water resources are also affected by climate change, while their quantitative and qualitative parameters are good indicators of the changes in the climate system. There are no doubts that against the background of this growing threat, it is necessary to take additional measures in the conservation and protection of water resources. The European Union pays great attention to climate change mitigation and displays political leadership in the development of climate change adaptation plans. Two important programmatic documents on adaptation to climate change have been adopted by the European Commission, namely the Green Paper «Adapting to Climate Change in Europe Options for EU action» (2007) and the White Paper «Adapting to Climate Change. European Framework for Action» (2010). The Republic of Lithuania adopted a National Strategy for Climate Change Management Policy in The strategy consists of sections on climate change mitigation and adaptation. The purpose of the strategy is to develop and implement a climate change management policy as well as to identify short, medium and long-term goals and objectives of climate change mitigation and adaptation. In 2013, the Government of Lithuania approved an action plan for the period , which also includes a number of measures for water resources. Problems related to climate change cannot be solved by the efforts of individual countries. Cooperation is necessary among the whole international community. The project River Basin Management and Climate Change Adaptation in the Neman River Basin which resulted in the present Strategic Framework, is an excellent example of transboundary cooperation in tackling problems related to water resources and water quality at the basin level. Without any doubt, the results of the project are important at the national level and promote further cooperation on climate change issues in the Neman basin. Algirdas Genevicius Vice Minister, Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania

8 8 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Preface Sustainable development of industry in the Neman River Basin (NRB) that also ensures the ecological functioning of water bodies can be achieved through an efficient and integrated NRB water resources management strategy, which should rely on medium- and long-term regional climate change forecasts and timely adoption of relevant preventive adaptation measures. These measures should account for and capitalize on the benefits of projected changes as efficiently as possible, and also mitigate the potential adverse effects of climate change, based on climate risk assessment. It is forecast that the climatic changes that have been observed in recent decades in the NRB will persist into the mid-21st century. It is also forecast that the average yearly temperature will increase, the period with seasonal snow cover will be reduced, and annual precipitation will increase, with the increase being more substantial in the first half-year and variations being insignificant in the summer and autumn period. This will entail changes in the river flow, resulting in redistribution of the intra-annual change of flow due to increased risks of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena, including rain floods and droughts. A slight increase in the average annual flow across the NRB is projected, which will result in an increase of the runoff to the maximum in winter seasons and earlier onset of spring floods, the intensity of which is likely to decrease due to snow cover instability. The surface flow is likely to decrease across a larger part of Belarus and to increase on the territory of Lithuania and in Kaliningrad Oblast (Russian Federation). The observed and projected climatic changes will yield both positive and negative consequences for water resources, the population and economy. The NRB territory is characterized by a large population, a high concentration of industrial enterprises and other facilities (including oil/ product/gas pipelines), brisk growth of hydropower engineering and agricultural sectors, and active use of water resources. Given an upsurge of interest among the international community in this region due to its favorable location as a transit route, the region s role and importance are likely to increase. The Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin has been developed in the course of implementation of the International Project River Basin Management and Climate Change Adaptation in the Neman River Basin. The main goal of the Project is to improve the integrated management of water resources using the basin approach in the climate change context, on the example of the Neman River. The Project has facilitated the development of transboundary cooperation between the NRB countries. It was a part of the UNECE Program of pilot projects and used existing platforms for sharing experience between projects and other similar initiatives aimed at developing cooperation for climate change adaptation in transboundary basins. In addition, the Project was implemented with assistance from ENVSEC and UNDP in the Republic of Belarus. The following principal results were obtained in the course of the Project s implementation: the current state of the water resources of the Neman River Basin (quantitative aspects) was assessed, based on an analysis of the impact of economic activities on these resources;

9 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 9 changes in existing climatic characteristics and runoff over the past 50 years were analyzed; climate change scenarios were elaborated and climate change/runoff forecasts were made up to 2050 an overall assessment of the current water quality of surface waters in the NRB was made, based on the agreed assessment system (Belarus Lithuania); estimations and forecasts of the impact of future climate change on the surface water quality were made at the highest level of generalization; hydrometeorological and hydrochemical monitoring systems were analyzed and proposals were developed to optimize these systems for climate change monitoring; a common information platform (online database) was developed, containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate change for the NRB countries; consultations were held to discuss the Project s outcomes and strategies for the NRB countries (Belarus, Lithuania, Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation), with the involvement of representatives of the UNECE, environmental management bodies, international and national experts, water users concerned, and also mass media and the public. The Strategic Framework also includes a list of main potential measures developed, based on an assessment of the possible impacts of climate change on various types of natural resources and industries within the context of their relation to the severity of the impact on water resources. The damage and risks associated with adverse events of climatic variability may not only be reduced, but also specific economic benefits may be derived from the positive effects of this variability, provided that these measures are competently developed and implemented in a timely manner through specific activities and projects. The impacts of climate change are not limited to the administrative boundaries of regions and states. Therefore, developing and implementing adaptation measures requires cooperation and integration between regions, states and industries at all levels. Stakeholders should realize the benefits of mutual cooperation aimed at achieving positive long-term effects, rather than take decisions focused exclusively on short-term benefits. Cooperation and dialogue are key concepts in the process of studying climate variability and managing climate risks. To achieve efficient results, there is a need to implement basin-based principles of integrated water resources management, which implies active international cooperation, information sharing and effective coordination of actions between decision-makers, representatives of the business and academic communities, civil society and the general public at different levels, including local, regional and international. Within this context, it is reasonable to capitalize on the experience and potential of such international organizations as the UNECE, UNDP, UNEP, WMO, ENVSEC, the World Bank and others. Financing mechanisms need to be created for specific facilities, sectors and areas of activity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change, including through the development of a climate change-related risks insurance scheme.

10 10 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Chapter 1. Background The data provided in the Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2, 3] indicate that climate change is unequivocal. This is currently evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and the rising global sea level. It is stated that the Earth s average surface atmosphere layer temperature has risen by about 0.8 C over the last one hundred years, while the snow-covered area in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 8 % and the global mean sea level has risen by 17 centimeters. It is noteworthy that warming is proceeding at a somewhat higher rate in the NRB. Over this period, average air temperature increased by 1.1 C throughout the basin, which is characteristic of countries located in the mid latitudes. According to the IPCC s estimates and hydrometeorological observation data, climate change will, in particular, drastically affect the water environment, thereby being responsible for serious vulnerability of water resources to climate change. This may result in widespread consequences for human society and ecosystems. Moreover, major regularities and projections earlier identified by the IPCC s Fifth Assessment Report and by the Summary of Climate Change and its potential impact on natural resources and mankind have been in principle proved and still further substantiated. It should be noted that dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena resulting in both natural calamities and technogenic accidents are becoming increasingly significant. The probability of the onset of these phenomena is increasing significantly, in relation both to substantial warming across the larger part of the planet and to cooling in specific regions; the adverse effects of the former and the latter are also increasing. It is noteworthy that recent IPCC study findings [2, 3] for the Fifth Assessment Report principally agree with the content of the earlier Fourth Assessment Report, whose methodological framework and scenarios served as a basis for making the majority of regional projections and assessments of future climatic changes. Therefore, measures are required to improve water resources management in the context of adaptation to climate change, using the basin approach and a strategic framework common for all NRB countries. To develop the Strategic Framework, regulatory acts and other ecological policy tools of the NRB states (Republic of Belarus, Republic of Lithuania and Russian Federation) and the European Union relating to the management of water resources and adaptation to climate change have been used (see List in Annex A). The Strategic Framework identifies basic approaches, principal areas of activity and a list of measures aimed at improving water resources management in the NRB in relation to adaptation to climate change. These approaches and activities are based on the results of analysis and forecasting of the changes in climate and flows in the basin between 1961 and 2010 and until 2050, as well as on an assessment of the vulnerability to climate change of water resources and other related natural resources and industries. To this end, climate change scenarios common for the entire basin have been used. The main goal of the document is to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on water resources and related natural resources, industries and conditions of vital activity.

11 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 11 Chapter 2. General Characteristics of the Neman River Basin 2.1. Geographical Location and Hydrographic Characteristics The Neman River Basin is located at 56 o o 45 north latitude and 22 o o 10 east longitude on the territory of Belarus, Lithuania, the Russian Federation (Kaliningrad Oblast), Poland and Latvia (Table 2.1, Figures ). The total river length is 914 km [7] and the basin area is 98,200 km 2. Only the upper courses of some tributary streams are located in Poland and Latvia. Table 2.1 Countries on the Territory of which the River Basin is Located Total river Country Catchment basin area, km 2 area, km² Catchment area, % Lithuania ,7 Belarus ,4 Russian Federation ,2 Poland ,6 Latvia 98 0,1 Figure 2.1 Map of the NRB s location 2 2 This map was developed using the information resource php?id=eur&scheme=3;

12 12 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Figure 2.2 Geographical map of the NRB 3 3 This map was developed by Zoi Environmental Network, Geneva, Switzerland, in April 2013 Figure 2.3 The Neman River near Grodno (Belarus) 4 4 Photo: L.N. Gertman. The Neman s largest tributaries (in terms of length and basin area) are the following rivers (in order of distance of confluence from the estuary): Berezina, Shchara, Zelvyanka, Kotra, Svisloch, Myarkis, Viliya (Neris), Nevezhis, Dubisa, Sheshupe, Yura and Miniya. The Neman river is nominally divided into three reaches: upper (to the confluence of the Kotra river); middle (from the confluence of the Kotra river to the confluence of the Viliya (Neris) river); and lower (past the confluence of the Viliya (Neris) river). The river s width upstream is m, midstream it is m, and downstream it reaches up to 500 m. The average slope of the river bed upstream is 0.16, while midstream it is 0.23 and downstream 0.10

13 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 13 Figure 2.4 The Neman River near the settlement of Merkine (Lithuania) 5 5 Photo: Paul Buijs 2.2. Water Resources The NRB s water resources are mainly formed on the territory of three countries: Belarus, Lithuania and Russia. The tributaries, the headwaters of which are located in Poland and Latvia, contribute an insignificant quantity of runoff (about 0.3 %). In the average water year, Belarus accounts for 43.5 % of the total Neman River runoff, Lithuania 50.0 % and Russia 6.2 % 2.3. Climate The climate in the NRB is moderately continental. The Atlantic Ocean is the major factor that affects the climate. Atlantic air masses coming from the west are responsible for cloudy and rainy weather in the summer season and significant warming and thawing in the winter season. Amplification of the continental effect in specific periods increases temperature contrasts: in the summer season it contributes to hot weather, in the winter season to deep freeze, and in spring and autumn it leads to frosts. Flows of Atlantic humid air prevail for most of the year and then gradually transform into continental air, specifically in the western and south-western parts. The mean annual air temperature was 6.8 o C in the NRB area over the period between 1981 and The frost-free period s duration is over 150 days. On average, frosts begin to appear in early October. The transition of the mean daily air temperature to under 5 o C takes place on average in mid-october and to below 0 o C in late November. Mean daily air temperatures go above 0 o C in early March. On average, seasonal snow cover appears in middle December. The average dates of the melting of seasonal snow cover fall in mid- March. As a rule, maximum snow cover depth is cm. The prevailing mean monthly air temperature in the winter season is -2 to -6 o C. During cold winters, the minimum temperature may go below -30 o C. The prevailing mean monthly air temperature in the summer season is o C. The absolute maximum exceeds 35 o C. On average, the mean annual precipitation across the basin is 672 mm, with the maximum value being observed in the summer season.

14 14 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 2.4. Population According to data valid as of 1 January 2009, about 2,242.6 thousand people resided in the Belarusian part of the Neman River Basin. Of them, 1,439.0 thousand (64 %) lived in urban areas and thousand (36 %) in rural areas. The population residing in the Lithuanian part of the NRB numbers 2,710.8 thousand people. Of them, 1, thousand (70 %) reside in urban areas and thousand (30 %) in rural areas. About 120 thousand people reside in the NRB area in Kaliningrad Oblast (Russian Federation), of whom 70 thousand (58.3 %) reside in urban areas and 50 thousand (41.7 %) in rural areas Industry The NRB is characterized by active water use, due to the availability of a large number of industrial and agricultural enterprises as well as oil and product pipelines which are potential sources of water resource pollution. The food, chemical and petrochemical, machine-building and metalworking, forest, wood-working and pulp-and-paper industries, construction materials and consumer goods industries are dominant in the sphere of industrial production in the NRB in Belarus. 10 small hydroelectric power plants (hereinafter HPP ) operate in the NRB in Belarus. Grodnenskaya HPP was commissioned upstream from Grodno, and there are plans to build Nemnovskaya HPP downstream from Grodno at the settlement of Nemnovo. A part of the runoff from the Neman River Basin (the Viliya river) is diverted to the Dnieper River Basin via the Vileisk-Minsk water system about mln m 3 /year. The main consumers are housing and public utilities and amenities, which together account for 65 % of the surface water and groundwater resources. Industry and energy account for about 20 % of the water use. Total water use in the basin makes up 2.75 % of the available water resources. The industries use 2.2 % of the surface flow formed in the basin from the surface water sources. Groundwater use accounts for 3.71 % of the natural ground water resources [8]. The food, wood-working, textile, chemical, metal-working, machine-building, instrument-making and furniture industries are dominant in the Neman River Basin in Lithuania. 32 hydroelectric power plants operate in the NRB in Lithuania, the largest of which is Kaunas HPP. Industry is less developed in the Russian part of the Neman River Basin. Effluents from two large pulp and paper mills located in the towns of Sovetsk and Neman and from facilities in the towns of Kransnoznamensk, Neman, Sovetsk and Nesterov mainly contribute to the anthropogenic impact. These industries use about 5 % of the surface flow formed in Kaliningrad Oblast from the surface water sources and 0.6 % of the total surface flow. The groundwater use makes up 32 % of the useful groundwater resources Ecological Status of Water Bodies An Assessment of the ecological status of surface waters in the Neman River Basin that was performed within the framework of the Project 6 helped draw the following main conclusions [9]: an increased ammonium nitrogen content is generally characteristic of Belarus. As 6 The ecological status assessment was performed using criteria that were agreed upon within the framework of the international Project (Belarus-Lithuania), taking into account Lithuania s experience in the sphere of classification of water bodies by type (based on common morphometric characteristics) and by the quality of surface water (divided into 5 classes of ecological status).

15 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 15 regards this parameter, water bodies are classified as being of the 3 rd quality class (satisfactory quality). Meanwhile, it is not characteristic of Lithuania, since nitrate nitrogen is more often evaluated as being of the 3 rd class (or 4 th class unsatisfactory quality) in this group of substances; in Belarus, the waters of some water bodies (Neman, Viliya, Zelvyanka, Usha, Servech) are classified in terms of their organic and oxidizable matter as 3 rd class in specific years (predominantly by dichromate oxidizability or by biological oxygen demand, BOD); in Lithuania, high biological oxygen demand concentrations are common in some water bodies, which are classified as being of the 3 rd or 4 th quality class; in Lithuania, high total phosphorus and phosphate phosphorus content is characteristic of some water bodies. Therefore, water bodies are classified under these parameters as 3 rd, 4 th or even 5 th class (poor quality), while in Belarus only isolated water bodies are classified as 3 rd class by this parameter. Therefore, different parameters may define the dominant pollutants in the group of biogenic elements in Belarus and Lithuania. This may be due to specific features of the sources of pollutants that enter the water bodies, including effluent discharge, export of pollutants from the catchment area, etc. For the same reasons, the 3 rd quality class (and in some cases the 4 th quality class in Lithuania) in terms of organic and oxidizable matter is characteristic of water bodies both in Belarus and in Lithuania. The following rivers were assessed as undamaged by anthropogenic activity: Chernaya Gancha (transboundary), Svisloch (transboundary), Myarkis, Ula-Pelesa, Veivirzhas, Yura, Miniya, Salanta, Akmena, Shventoyi and Zheizhmyana. The state of water of the Gozhka and Neman rivers (upstream from Grodno) may also be characterized as good, except in the years of 2006 and Environmental Problems The main environmental problems in the Neman River Basin are due to the flow of pollutants into water bodies from point and nonpoint sources of pollution. According to the 2012 State Water Cadastre, 84 enterprises discharging effluents into surface water bodies are located in the NRB in Belarus. 157 effluent discharge outlets to water bodies, including 52 surface wastewater outlets, were on their balance. In 2012, 124,042.0 thousand m 3 of effluents containing pollutants were discharged into surface water bodies in total, including 12,650.4 thousand m 3 of surface wastewater discharged into water bodies via municipal and industrial rain sewerage systems. Of the total effluents discharged into surface water bodies, 108,700 thousand m 3 (87.6 %) were effluents treated to standard quality and 2,140 thousand m 3 (1.7 %) were not treated to sufficient standard; 13,202 thousand m 3 (10.7 %) did not require treatment (given their quality, discharge of these effluents does not adversely affect the receiving water bodies). In 2012, the following quantities of pollutants entered water bodies together with the discharged effluents: BOD 5 1,737.5 tons; oil and petroleum products 11.5 tons; suspended matter 1,650.9 tons; total phosphorus 199,057.6 tons; chloride ion 11,266.8 tons; ammonium ion (in terms of N) tons; nitrate ion (in terms of N) tons; nitrite ion (in terms of N) 31.9 tons; synthetic surfactants 21,103 kg; total iron 52,104.1 kg; copper kg; zinc 1,743 kg; nickel kg;

16 16 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin total chrome kg; lead 66.1 kg; and phenols 264 kg. In Belarus, the 15 largest enterprises in the Neman River Basin (of 84 enterprises located within the basin limits) account for about 86 % of the total household and industrial wastewater discharge within the basin boundaries (according to the data). Out of these 15 enterprises, 10 enterprises are housing and public utility enterprises (Municipal Enterprises of Water Supply and Waste Water Treatment) operating treatment facilities; three are fish farms; one is an industrial enterprise; and one is an enterprise whose main line of business that requires water use is pond-based fish farming ( Narochansky National Park). Analysis of sanitation shows that slightly more than 70 % of the total mass of pollutants in the composition of wastewater discharged by these 13 enterprises enters water bodies with effluents from 6 municipal treatment facilities of housing and public utility enterprises in Grodno, Baranovichy, Lida, Molodechno, Slonim, Volkovysk and also from the treatment facility of the industrial enterprise Grodno Azot OJSC. Given that organic matter evaluated by the BOD 5 test, suspended substances and nitrogen and phosphorous compounds make up the bulk of pollutants in the effluents from these enterprises, it is necessary to take action to more efficiently remove them from effluents before discharge into water bodies. The main load from point pollution sources in the NRB in Belarus that contributes to transboundary pollution is formed within the limits of Grodno (State Unitary Public Utility Production Enterprise Grodnovodokanal and GrodnoAzot OJSC), and directly enters the Neman river bed downstream of the town. Pollution from the remaining point sources mainly enters small rivers (measuring from 5 to 200 km in length) that are the first- or second-order tributaries of the medium-sized Viliya and Shchara rivers, and also of the Neman. The average annual flow in the estuaries of these rivers ranges from 1.2 m 3 / s to 8.2 m 3 / s, which is significantly lower than the water flow in the Neman and Viliya rivers. However, given the predicted climatic changes and possible runoff reduction during specific seasons of the year, low average annual flows may render small rivers extremely vulnerable to climate change due to a considerable anthropogenic impact related to the discharge of effluents and their low degree of mixing with river water. It should be noted that the Usha river, downstream of Molodechno, the Myshanka river, downstream of Baranovichy and the Ditva river, downstream of Lida, are likely to be most vulnerable to climate change. One of the acute problems is inadequate treatment of the surface wastewater discharged into surface water bodies, due to the low performance of treatment facilities as well as the unavailability of such facilities in many settlements (primarily in urban-type settlements). The impact of non-point pollution sources on water quality across the entire territory of the NRB may be dominant in comparison with pollution from point sources. In this case, pollution from non-point sources may be estimated to be between 40 % and 90 % of the total pollution index. It is noteworthy that surface discharge from the territories of these settlements is a sizeable source of pollution in the water bodies. A major problem of the ecological status of the Couronian Lagoon is encountered in the Neman River estuary the Neman River s runoff to the lagoon is over 80 % of the total runoff of rivers discharging into it, which also influences the lagoon s water quality. Hy-

17 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 17 perblooming of potentially toxic blue-green algae is observed in the lagoon, resulting in a deficit of oxygen due to algae accumulation and decomposition and in the adverse effects on the ecosystem [10]. A specific feature of watercourses in the NRB in Kaliningrad Oblast is that their profile and regimes have been changed by human activity: many of them have been straightened and serve as water receivers of multiple irrigation systems and some of them are connected with canals. Climatic conditions in the Oblast are characterized by high dynamics and they significantly influence the river s inflow. Public utility enterprises significantly contribute to pollution of surface waters in a number of the Oblast s districts and in the city of Kaliningrad. In general, the level of deterioration of water supply networks across Kaliningrad Oblast is 70.0 %. The deterioration of sanitation networks is 70.8 %, that of treatment facilities for the water supply system is 61.2 %, and the deterioration of treatment facilities of the sanitation system is rated at 78.0 %. The majority of existing water supply and sanitation networks were built before the Second World War. The systems are characterized by a high depreciation rate and require refurbishment and retrofitting. The available capacities of the water supply systems are significantly overloaded and are not adequate for uninterrupted water supply in many towns and settlements. The unavailability of treatment facilities in a number of the Oblast s towns results in a high content of biogenic elements in watercourses being wastewater receivers [10] Basin Cooperation Bilateral agreements between the governments, ministries and other organizations of the NRB states serve as the basis for basin-wide cooperation. National regulatory and legal acts and other ecological policy tools (strategies, management plans, etc.) in the NRB states stipulate an integrated approach to the utilization and protection of waters and are aimed at fulfilling the provisions of the UNECE Helsinki Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. In addition, amendments and addenda are regularly incorporated into the legislation to harmonize national legislations with the assumed international obligations. International projects, including regional cooperation projects, are among the most significant and efficient tools for basin cooperation Tendencies and Prospects As regards geopolitics at the level of the NRB, it is reasonable to implement the basin principle of water resources management in a stage-wise manner. Given the current situation, it is logical to initially establish an International Basin Council (Commission) as a body to include representatives from the departments and organizations involved in managing water resources, large water users, and academic and non-governmental organizations. Signing an international agreement on the NRB and setting up an International Commission for the Neman River Basin will contribute to the increased efficiency of international cooperation and water resources management in the Neman River Basin.

18 18 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Chapter 3 Observable Changes in Climate and Runoff in the Neman River Basin 3.1. Observable Climate Change Analysis and forecasting of the changes in climatic characteristics and runoff in the Neman River Basin were made using data obtained from 23 meteorological stations (8 in Belarus and 15 in Lithuania) and from 25 hydrological regime observation stations (12 in Belarus and 13 in Lithuania) between 1961 and 2010 (Figure 3.1). Figure 3.1 Network of meteorological stations and hydrological regime stations The following climate change tendencies were found over the period from 1961 to 2011: the annual average air temperature rose by 0.9 C across the Neman River Basin with a maximum increase of 2.5 C in the winter season (in January) and of 1.4 C in the summer season (in July) (Figure 3.2); there was a slight increase in average annual precipitation (by 7 %), with the largest increase being observed in the winter season (by nearly 40 % in February), while in the summer season the change in precipitation was assessed as insignificant within the limits of statistical significance of assessments (Figure 3.3).

19 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 19 Figure 3.2 Assessment of air temperature change ( C) in the NRB in (statistically significant changes are marked by arrows) Figure 3.3 Assessment of precipitation change (%) in the NRB in (statistically significant changes are marked by arrows) 3.2. Observable Changes of Runoff By nature of intra-annual water availability distribution, the Neman River falls into the category of rivers with a significant spring flood during the period of intensive snow-melting and low runoff during the rest of the year. Due to its climatic characteristics, drought phenomena, spring floods and summer and autumn rain floods that result in flooding are most relevant to the Neman River Basin. The following tendencies in runoff change were observed in the period : a slight increase in the average annual runoff on average by 2.7 % across the basin (Figure 3.4); a reduction in runoff and earlier onset of the spring flood peak; an increase in winter runoff across a larger part of the NRB area (Figure 3.5); a slight reduction in summer runoff in Belarus and an increase in runoff in the north-western part of Lithuania and in Kaliningrad Oblast (Russian Federation) (Figure 3.6).

20 20 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Figure 3.4 Change in the average annual runoff (%) in the NRB in Figure 3.5 Winter runoff change (%) in the NRB in Figure 3.6 Summer runoff change (%) in the NRB in

21 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 21 Chapter 4 Forecasting Climate Change for the Neman River Basin 4.1. Climate Change Scenarios Long-term climate change forecasts for the Neman River Basin for a period of years ( ) were elaborated, based on CCLM regional climate model calculations and using output data from the ECHAM5 global climate model. To forecast climate change, two emission scenarios are used: A1B (relatively high-emission scenario) a tougher scenario implying relatively high greenhouse gas emissions due to rapid economic and demographic growth up to the mid-21st century, followed by population growth deceleration, rapid introduction of state-of-the-art technologies and balanced utilization of energy resources. B1 (low-emission scenario) a softer scenario implying low greenhouse gas emissions, highly probable abrupt globalization, and a change in the population size similar to that as planned in A1 scenario. However, a rather rapid conversion of the economic system into an information-based system, a model of society that becomes less consumption-oriented, and intensive introduction of novel clean technologies Climate Change Forecasts Generalization of climate change forecasting, subject to two scenarios, has enabled the conclusions provided below to be made. These conclusions may in principle be adjusted and revised by using other scenarios, without any significant change in the tendencies detected prior to The tendency for the air temperature to rise will also persist in the future (until 2050). The annual average air temperature is likely to increase by 1.4 C 1.7 C in accordance with different climate change scenarios, assuming an increase by 2.0 C 2.8 C in the winter season and by 0.7 C 1.1 C in the summer season. Annual precipitation is also likely to increase in the Neman River Basin. More significant changes are expected in the first half-year, while in the summer and autumn seasons these changes will not be so significant. Due to the most significant air temperature rise being in the winter season and given the change of the amount and composition of precipitation, the snow cover will be reduced in the near future. The adjusted climate change forecasts until 2050 for the NRB, elaborated using the results of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble under the four scenarios provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2013 [3], proved the detected forecast tendencies of an average increase on average in air temperature and precipitation in the basin. In addition to the above, an insignificant change in the distribution of the air temperature rise season-wise was found. It is predicted that the

22 22 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin increase in the air temperature in the summer will be more pronounced than that forecast under the A1B and B1 scenarios and less pronounced in winter than that forecast under the above scenarios. The air temperature is also expected to increase to the maximum in winter (Figures 4.1, 4.2). The largest precipitation is forecast in the cold season of the year, while in the second half of summer and also at the beginning of autumn, the precipitation will actually remain unchanged or will even slightly decrease (Figures 4.3, 4.4). Figure 4.1 Air temperature change forecasts using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (according to IPCC 2014) and A1B and B1 scenarios (according to IPCC 2007). Figure 4.2 Most significant air temperature forecast changes, C mean for a year (Figure a), mean for winter season (Figure b) and mean for summer season (Figure c)

23 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 23 Figure 4.2 Most significant air temperature forecast changes, C mean for summer season (Figure c) Figure 4.3 Precipitation change forecasts using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (according to IPCC 2014) and A1B and B1 scenarios (according to IPCC 2007). Figure 4.4 Most significant precipitation forecast changes, %: for a year (Figure a)

24 24 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Figure 4.4 Most significant precipitation forecast changes, %: for winter season (Figure b) and for summer season (Figure c)

25 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 25 Chapter 5 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and other Related Natural Resources and Industries in the Neman River Basin 5.1. The Impact of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources Forecast of Runoff Change The forecast of the changes to runoff in surface water bodies for the period from 2021 to 2050 was elaborated using two methodologically similar hydrological models: the WatBal model with calculations of the evapotranspiration and water balance (WatBal model calculations were made by Lithuanian experts) [11, 12, 13]; the Belarusian model of hydrological-climatic calculations based on simultaneous solution of equations of water and heat energy balance (calculations were made by Belarusian experts) [14, 15]. According to the runoff change forecasts for the period , the tendencies for a slight increase in the average annual runoff throughout the NRB, spotted in , will persist (Figure 5.1). The runoff may increase to the maximum in the winter season (up to +40 %), mainly in January and February, due to increases in precipitation and the frequency of thaw periods (Figure 5.2). The forecast summer surface runoff for may decrease in the Belarusian part of the NRB (maximum runoff reduction may be nearly -20 %), while in the Lithuanian part of the basin and in Kaliningrad Oblast (Russian Federation), it may increase up to +20 % (Figure 5.3). Figure 5.1 Generalized multi-model forecast of annual runoff change

26 26 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Figure 5.2 Generalized multi-model forecast of annual runoff change in winter season Figure 5.3 Generalized multi-model forecast of annual runoff change in summer season Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena One of the climate change-induced adverse effects for the Neman River Basin is a possible increase in the frequency and intensity of adverse meteorological and hydrological phenomena: intense rainfall, drought, late frost, flooding due to rain floods and spring floods, specifically in case of a combination of factors such as snow melting and wetsnow and rain precipitation, as well as possible increases in flood duration (Figure 5.4).

27 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 27 Figure 5.4 A spring flood in the Neman River headwaters near Stolbtsy (2011) 7 7 Photo: L.N. Gertman An increase in the irregularity of the intra-annual flow redistribution and increased risks of floods related to sudden thawing in the winter season, earlier onset of spring floods and increased intensity of rain floods (specifically in the Neman headwaters in Belarus and in the western part of Lithuania and in Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation) will result in increased risks of extreme phenomena. Estimated characteristics of the surface flow of water bodies under extreme hydrological phenomena, including the tendencies of their change over the last 50 years and projections for the period are provided in Table 5.1. Table 5.1 Estimated Hydrological Characteristics of the Maximum and Minimum Flow of Main Watercourses of the Neman River Basin, Tendencies of their Change over the Last 50 Years and their Projections for the Period Neman Viliya Viliya Exceedance probability (flow probability) P,% Belarus Stolbtsy Mosty Grodno Vileika Mikhalishky Maximum spring flood runoff 1 % 1,944 2,359 2,317 1,048 1,567 5 % 857 1,456 1, % 540 1,144 1, Change of flow in , % Forecast for , %

28 28 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Summer and autumn low-water runoff 75 % % % Change of flow in Forecast for , % Lithuania Druskininkai Nemanyunai Smalininkai Vilnius Yonava Maximum spring flood runoff 1 % 2,770 2,910 6,140 1,610 2,180 5 % 1,830 2,020 4,680 1,130 1, % 1,440 1,640 4, ,410 Change of flow in Forecast for Summer and autumn low-water runoff 75 % % % Change of flow in Forecast for Based on analysis of tendencies/forecasts, the following conclusions may be arrived at: Spring floods and rain floods The intensity of spring floods and resulting flood inundations in the NRB has substantially decreased over the last 50 years on average, the maximum spring flood runoff in the basin decreased by 27.3 % with an earlier onset of the spring flood peak. Therefore, based on the observed tendencies and elaborated forecasts, spring floods are not a priority problem in the NRB, except the Neman headwaters in Belarus, western Lithuania and Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation. However, despite the fact that the flood problem is not the most urgent as regards the larger part of the NRB, it is relevant since floods cause substantial economic damage, specifically to agricultural production. For example, the river flood plain throughout the larger part of the NRB in Belarus is inundated at least from every 4 10 years. The forecast decrease in the maximum spring flood runoff may be much less substantial compared to the decrease observed over the last 50 years. Flood inundations will, indeed, take place in the future. In this case, inundations of the river flood plain are also forecast, and the damage from these inundations may increase with the increasing intensity of development in the river flood plains. The probability of flash rain

29 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 29 floods occurring will also increase, due to the irregularity of the intra-annual flow redistribution. It should be noted that the intensity of these floods, both during the summer and autumn seasons, as well as during other seasons, may be comparable to the flood intensity in cases of such factors as snow melting and intense rains being combined. Therefore, flood-protection hydraulic engineering structures need to be maintained in good working order and repair. Low-water periods The problem of low-water periods leading to droughts is relevant for the entire Neman River Basin. Although in general, factors leading to scarcity of water resources are currently nonexistent throughout the NRB and are not likely to emerge in the future, the probability of lengthy low-water periods occurring is increasing. The summertime runoff slightly decreased over the last 50 years in Belarus (on average by 4.4 %), while it slightly increased in Lithuania (on average by 6.6 %, with a decrease in runoff in southern areas and a slight increase in northern and western areas). In principle, the above conclusion agrees with the results of a study of dry seasons throughout the Neman River sub-basins that used the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-recommended SDI (streamflow drought index) and SPI (standardized precipitation index) methodologies. However, the probability of low-water periods occurring will increase in the future. The forecast reduction in the minimum runoff in the summer and autumn seasons in Belarus may be more significant in the future than its reduction over the last 50 years. On average, it will be up to 11 % (maximally up to 20 %). A less significant reduction in the minimum runoff may occur in the future in the southern and eastern parts of Lithuania, with a slight increase even possible in the northern and western parts. Low-water periods may result in deterioration of the state of the environment and recreational potential of surface water bodies and adjacent areas. They may also lead to a change of the groundwater hydrogeological regime, soil depletion on the flood plain, etc. In addition to the economic damage (mainly to the agricultural sector), the water supply may be put at risk in rural settlements not connected to the centralized water supply system because of a decline in the groundwater level and water shallowing in wells. In addition, the possible increase in the frequency and duration of dry seasons may increase the risk of a substantial reduction in the summer runoff of small rivers, which would result in lower water levels and deterioration of their water quality and recreational potential Assessment of the Uncertainties in Forecasting the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources The uncertainty in the assessment of the impact of climate change on water resources is associated with many factors, the most significant of which include: 1. Inaccuracies in the identified tendencies of change in meteorological and hydrological characteristics, in light of an assessment of the statistical significance of these tendencies. 2. Uncertainty and ambiguity in the general climate change scenarios and their extremely high level of generalization. 3. Uncertainty of the results of calculations that use hydrological models for runoff forecasting (both Belarusian and Lithuanian), due to errors in the models them-

30 30 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin selves, their verification (validation) and uncertainties in the data and coefficients used (forecast values of air temperature, precipitation, air moisture deficit, soil characteristics, radiation balance components, etc.). In the most general terms, this uncertainty is identified in some discrepancies between the results of forecasts elaborated by Lithuanian and Belarusian experts, with the tendencies identified being generally consistent. 4. Uncertainty in the forecast of socio-economic development and water use in the basin and the forecast of the impact of anthropogenic factors on water resources. However, subject to forecasts, the water utilization by industry in Belarus is likely to increase by %/year according to the optimistic scenario of economic development, which would have an insignificant effect on the surface runoff regime. It has been found that the impact of climate change on the runoff from surface water bodies will be more significant in the NRB in Belarus. Moreover, this change will be related to a greater extent to natural factors than to projected changes in water use: the maximum decrease in surface runoff due to forecast water use may be up to 5 %, while its maximum reduction in the summer and autumn seasons due to climate change-related natural factors may be up to 20 %. The insufficiency of the economic assessment of climate change in terms of water resources protection and utilization is also responsible for uncertainties in the process of elaborating the long-term runoff forecasts in the context of the changing climate and adaptation measures. These forecasts may be updated in the future by adjusting the climate change scenarios, refining the global and regional climate models, and also by extending the timeframe of the initial meteorological and hydrological data, supplementing them in subsequent years and taking into account climate change adaptation measures Forecasting the Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Quality Climate change and the increased air temperature may result in increases in water temperature in surface water bodies. On average, the water temperature is expected to increase by 1 C throughout the Neman River Basin by the mid-21 st century. This may lead to a reduction in the dissolved oxygen in surface waters by an average of 0.25 mg/dm 3 in the summer season throughout the NRB [16, 17]. This is not considered to be a significant reduction in case of high concentrations of dissolved oxygen, but may become significant at low oxygen concentrations. The reduction in the dissolved oxygen content may lead to increased concentrations of biogenic pollutants and also result in the deterioration of hydrobiological indicators of surface water quality. The water temperature rise may increase total mineralization by 3 10 %. Statistically significant correlations between changes in the possible water temperature due to climate change and the values of the remaining indicators of surface water quality have not been found, since the values of the remaining factors affecting water quality, inclusive of natural conditions of surface water quality formation and anthropogenic impact, are more significant than the climate change-related factors.

31 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Summary of the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Table 5.2 Summary of the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Resource Impact (risk) features Adaptation potential Surface water resources Groundwaters High probability of exposure to the impacts of climate change and variability. Tendency towards a slight increase in the average annual runoff across the basin (with a decrease in Belarus). Increase in the intra-annual runoff redistribution. Decrease of runoff and earlier onset of spring flooding. Growth of probability of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena (summer droughts and reduced water levels, summer and autumn rain floods). Increase in risks of damages from floods in the upper reaches of the Neman River on the territory of Belarus, in the western part of Lithuania and Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation, as well as across the basin in general with increased intensity of reclamation of the river flood plains. Increase in water temperatures and possible reduction of the content of dissolved oxygen, deterioration of the hydrobiological indicators of the state of water ecosystems, change in the regime of surface water levels. Increase in periods of rainfall floods and costs of flood-protection works. Risk of significant reduction of the runoff from small rivers (especially in summer), with lowering of water levels and deterioration of water quality as well as recreational potential. Deterioration of water quality in the Couronian Lagoon. Processes of river bank erosion. Accelerated wash-out of biogenic elements in drainage systems due to deterioration of their condition (mainly in Kaliningrad Oblast). Change of groundwater levels, quantity and quality. Medium Low 5.2. General Characteristics of the Impact of Climate Change on Natural Resources and Industries in the Context of Their Interrelation with Water Resources held with stakeholders in the states of the NRB, are provided in the most general manner in Figure 5.5 and in Tables 5.3, 5.4. The probable impacts of climate change in the Neman River Basin, taking into account the results of forecasting and consultations

32 32 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Figure 5.5 Possible impacts of climate change in the Neman River Basi Table 5.3 Summary of the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Natural Resources in the Context of their Interrelation with Water Resources Resource Impact (risk) features Adaptation potential Forest resources Changes in the status of forest resources due to climate change in general (structure and composition of forests, infections, parasites) may affect the formation of surface flow. Loss of productivity and quality of timber (scarcity of moisture and the decrease in ground water may provoke drying and reduction of forest cover). Increase in frequency of forest fires. Degradation of woodlands due to increased precipitation, flooding and inundations. Medium for effective forest management. Lower than medium in Kaliningrad Oblast. Other ecosystems and wetlands Likely deterioration of biodiversity characteristics, including a possible reduction of the habitat of indigenous species due to drying out of habitat areas, degradation of water quality along with an increase in temperature, and introduction of alien species. Fires in terrestrial ecosystems (peat lands). Degradation of floodplain meadows through overgrowing by brush woods. Medium (low for wetlands); at present mainly determined by autonomous adaptation.

33 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 33 Ichthyofauna Deterioration of the state of the Couronian Lagoon ecosystems due to hyperblooming of potentially toxic blue-green algae, resulting in dissolved oxygen deficiency. Change in species composition, depending on the climate change-related temperature regime of water bodies, and a possible increase in invasive species Medium-low; at present determined by autonomous adaptation. Table 5.4 Summary of the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Industries and Conditions of Human Vital Activity Industry Energy Sector of economy Housing and public utilities Impact (risk) features Additional reduction in runoff due to water use may reach up to 5 % in the future; the maximum reduction in runoff may constitute up to 20 % in summer seasons due to climate change. Water scarcity for industry in total is unlikely to occur because of good availability of ground water, but is possible for enterprises using water from the low-water surface sources. Increased contamination of surface waters may occur due to decreased runoff in the summer period. The reduction of runoff in summer periods will not have a significant impact on the development of industry, but may negatively influence water quality in receiving water bodies, considering that water scarcity for dilution of wastewaters will result in deterioration of water quality. The risk of water scarcity for power industry facilities is insignificant, except for hydroelectric facilities, due to a possible reduction of water levels in waterways with hydroelectric power stations in dry periods. Risk of interruption of the normal operation of HPPs, with an increased probability of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena (dry seasons, floods). Risk of increasing the possible impact of nuclear power plants on temperature regime of water bodies. Municipal water supply to settlements in the basin is completely based on groundwater use; the risk of water scarcity due to climate change is low, but water quality may be affected. Deterioration of water supply is possible in settlements without centralized water supply, due to lowering of levels of the first groundwater aquifer and drying up of wells. Adaptation potential Medium in Belarus and in Kaliningrad Oblast for improvement of water use and economic mechanisms, introduction of water conservation and recovery activities. High in Lithuania, mainly due to the use of groundwater by the industry. Medium in Belarus for improvement of water resources management at HPPs, including the effective use of their accumulating reservoirs. Above medium in Lithuania in case of projected minor changes of runoff. High, due to water supply from groundwater sources, improvement of economic mechanisms, systems of water supply and sanitation (also due to centralized water supply in rural areas).

34 34 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Agriculture Fish industry and fish breeding Legal and institutional aspects of water resources management Risk of interruptions to the water supply from surface water sources during dry seasons (mainly for Kaliningrad Oblast). Additional costs for the development of water supply and sanitation systems, rain sewerage and local water treatment to provide water supply and sanitation services. Increase in water use for household water supply to the population during warm seasons of the year. Deterioration of sanitary-and-epidemiologic situation because of air temperature rises in areas where solid household waste is collected and stored. Change in productivity and optimal habitats of agricultural crops, due to possible water scarcity and excess water in soil. Risk of water scarcity for agricultural production is low, except for water users diverting 2-4 million m 3 / year of surface waters in certain dry periods of low-water years. The impact of climate change may increase the pollution of soil and water resources (for example, increases in irrigation agriculture and expansion of irrigated areas will lead to a more intensive migration of nitrogen compounds into groundwaters). Propagation of soil erosion and deterioration of water quality due to sharp increases in the frequency of intense floods. Occurrence of new illnesses among agricultural crops, invasive species of plants and rodents is possible. Possible deficit of water resources in the Neman River s upper and middle reaches for enterprises of the fish industry due to reduction inrunoff and lower levels of surface waters, as well as redistribution among other sectors of the economy. Likely changes may occur in fish fauna; the disappearance or reduction of spawning grounds may provoke a decrease in fish biodiversity. The changing environmental conditions (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, ice regime) will lead to changes in fish production and species composition (including possibilities of new fish species breeding). Deterioration of fisheries and hydrobiological characteristics of the Couronian Lagoon due to the reduction of the Neman River runoff and their improvement with the increase of runoff. Insufficiency of the legal and institutional framework of water resources management (an administrative, but not a basin principle of the water management is used in Belarus; an international agreement on the Neman River Basin does not exist). Medium in case of application of efficient technologies in agriculture. Medium High in case of signing and implementing the Neman River Basin Agreement and stagewise implementation of the basin principles of management.

35 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 35 Transport infrastructure, including water transport Health of population Recreation A possible deterioration of transport infrastructure as a result of intensification of dangerous hydrological phenomena (dry periods, spring floods and summer/autumn rain floods). Changes in the amount of precipitation may render slopes unstable and lead to road soil component failure; extreme heat may reduce road quality due to the melting of asphalt pavements. Deterioration of conditions for water transport in Belarus due to decreased water levels and accelerated accumulation of sediment in water bodies. Reduction of drinking water quality and limited access to water in settlements without a centralized water supply. Increase in water consumption in dry periods. A growing frequency hot and cold periods and increase in the risk of diseases affecting the blood circulation system. Possible deterioration of sanitary-and-epidemiologic situation, occurrence of new illnesses, development of chronic diseases, formation of psychological discomfort in cases of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena. Risk of outbreak of infectious diseases as a result of water flooding and water logging during floods. Risk of deterioration of water quality and emergence of diseases in people and animals in case of growth of the habitat of toxic algae. Possible deterioration of water quality in areas of recreation (bathing). Change of conditions for tourism and recreation, including a reduction in the recreation potential for kayaking in cases of lowering water levels in water bodies. Medium in case of insufficient funding. Medium Medium

36 36 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Chapter 6 Assessment of the Vulnerability of Water Resources and Related Natural Resources and Industries to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin The vulnerability assessment is based on a determination of the extent to which a system (natural resource or industry) is exposed to climate change-induced adverse effects and is unable to withstand climate change-related adverse impacts, including climate variability and extreme climate phenomena. Vulnerability depends on the character, order of magnitude and rate of climate change, on those changes that affect the system, and on the system s sensitivity and adaptation capacity. In this case, sensitivity is defined as the degree of the system s response to the estimated climate change that is directly related to the system s adaptation potential (Figure 6.1). Figure 6.1 Vulnerability assessment diagram Impact (probability) low medium (vulnerable) high Impact consequences not very significant medium significant Vulnerability low medium high Adaptation potential low medium high Currently, there are no generally accepted unified approaches to the quantitative assessment of vulnerability of both natural resources and industries to climate change. Many countries worldwide have adopted formal procedures, only outlining the climate change adaptation strategy. Scoring approaches, based on a determination of the degree of vulnerability subject to the impact of climate change, are most frequently used. The Neman River Basin s vulnerability is assessed by assigning scores from one to three depending on the impact of factors as they increase. Vulnerability is assessed in more detail in terms of administrative districts in the NRB

37 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 37 Basin, based on the degree of runoff change for a combination of two climate change scenarios, the general tendencies of which have common features, taking in to account the area of farmland, forests, wetlands, population size (including the rural population), the main industrial sectors and products manufactured, availability of HPPs/CPPs and their capacities, water intake from the surface water bodies, and discharge into the surface water bodies (including water diversion for the fish industry). The degree of vulnerability was assessed in each administrative unit (district), based on the following criteria: degree of runoff change; adaptation potential assessed for various types of natural resources and industries related to water resources; and climate change impacts. The assessment accounted for the outcomes of consultations held in the NRB states. In general, the scale used for the assessment of the vulnerability of industries and natural resources is as follows. Impact probability: low 1; medium 2; high 3. The impact probability is characterized by the extent of utilization of some or other resource in the economy, for example the forested land area or a portion of the reclaimed land in a district. This assessment is limited to physical aspects of vulnerability. Impact consequences: not very significant 1; medium 2; significant 3. Impact consequences are defined by the degree of dependence of the resource used on the runoff change as an element of physical aspects of the vulnerability assessment. The impact consequences may be lower for Belarus, located in the upper part of the basin, than for Lithuania and Kaliningrad Oblast, due to the capacity to control quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the runoff within the country. The downstream regions are dependent to some extent on economic activity upstream. The assessment of impact consequences also includes an analysis of social aspects that involve the possibility of compensation for losses and the availability of reserve funds to protect people s lives and effectively restore infrastructure facilities. Lithuania, as a member of the EU, has more possibilities to reduce impacts of climate change than Belarus. Adaptation potential: low 3; medium 2; and high 1. The adaptation potential is determined based on the results of consultations and in the generalized form provided in Figure 5.5. The adaptation potential is higher, with less significant impact consequences, for Lithuania, as an EU member-state, than for Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation. The vulnerability is rated depending on the total score based on the impact probablity, impact consequences and adaptation potential: low 1; medium 2; high 3. The probable changes in runoff volume and seasonal distribution are considered to be among the critical consequences of climate change in the Neman River Basin. Therefore, the vulnerability was determined based on an assessment of the impact of the surface runoff variation over the limiting period (a respective most significant and characteristic

38 38 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin period) as the major criterion (Table 6c.1). The proposed scoring system from one to three was used, in light of consultations. A number of additional criteria, with consideration being given to the impact probability, impact consequences and adaptation potential (Table 6.2) was also used. The assessment was conducted in the administrative districts of Belarus, Lithuania and Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation using published statistical data [8, 18]. Patterns of vulnerability are shown in Figures 6.2, 6.3. Table 6.1. Assessment of the Impact of Runoff Changes in the Neman River Basin on Industries and Natural Resources* Types of impact / Industries and natural resources 1. Maximum flood runoff - more water 2. Minimum runoff (droughts resulting in substantial water level reduction) - less water 3. Water quality change (related to 1 and 2) 4. Impacts not related to water resources Agriculture Forestry Natural resources (natural ecosystems) Industry and energy Population * Groups of problems directly related to the changes in the regime and state of water resources are highlighted Table 6.2 Additional Criteria for Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Industry / natural resources Agriculture Additional assessment indicators Impact probability Impact consequences (combination of the specified impact probability indicator with the runoff change value) Medium The proportion of farmland in the total structure of land in the area: this conditions the farming intensity as well as pollution supply due to fertilizer application Cadastral valuation of lands the farmland bonitet was taken into consideration the higher the bonitet, the lower the probability of impact of runoff changes The proportion of farmland / August runoff; The proportion of farmland / February runoff when biogenes are washed out from farmland Soil bonitet / August runoff Adaptation potential

39 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 39 Forestry Natural resources (natural ecosystems) Natural resources (natural ecosystems) Industry and energy The proportion of reclaimed land: for changing conditions of spring runoff, availability of an amelioration drainage network is a positive factor reducing the probability of inundation and flooding; during reduced summer runoff periods, drainage amelioration is a negative factor: the probability of fires and droughts increases Availability of an irrigation network as an element that reduces water scarcity at a time of minimum runoff The proportion of forested areas in the total land structure of the area The proportion of wetlands that may be transformed into forested land under conditions of decreased runoff The proportion of reclaimed nonagricultural land where the probability of fires occurring during a significant reduction of runoff is high The proportion of forested areas in the total land structure of the area The proportion of wetlands in the total land structure of the area The proportion of specially protected natural areas in the land structure of the area Structure of industry in the total output this reflects the dependence of industries on the availability of water resources Effluents discharged into water bodies reducing river runoff may increase pollutant concentration due to the reduced diluting capacity of receiving water bodies Availability of HPPs and CPPs and their capacities possibility of producing sufficient electricity during reduced or increased runoff Population Urban and rural population ratio determines the degree of access to various social and economic benefits (drinking water, healthcare, education, etc.) The proportion of reclaimed land / March runoff; The proportion of reclaimed land / August runoff The proportion of irrigated land/ August runoff The proportion of forested areas / August runoff The proportion of wetlands / August runoff The proportion of reclaimed non-agricultural land / August runoff The proportion of forested areas / August runoff The proportion of wetlands / August runoff The proportion of specially protected natural areas / August runoff Dependence of leading industries on the August runoff Discharged effluents / August runoff Availability of HPPs / August runoff Availability of CPPs / August runoff Share of the rural population / August runoff Medium Medium Medium High Medium

40 40 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin Figure 6.2 Generalized map of vulnerability to climate change in the Neman River Basin with account of industries and natural resources Figure 6.3 Maps of vulnerability to climate change in the Neman River Basin: a - agriculture; b forestry a b

41 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 41 Figure 6.3 Maps of vulnerability to climate change in the Neman River Basin: c industry; d - natural resources (natural ecosystems) с d An integral assessment of areas by degree of vulnerability generally differentiates the basin territory into 3 sections: an upper reach, where a significant downward trend in the runoff is forecast; a middle reach, where areas with an average degree of vulnerability and or a low degree of vulnerability (in Lithuania) prevail; a lower reach, where areas with a high degree of vulnerability are located. The integral vulnerability assessment, which combined an assessment of the vulnerability of the main industries and natural resources, indicated a certain azonality and proximity of areas with high and low vulnerability. However, according to the assessment, the areas in which a significant reduction of runoff during the summer is forecast are most vulnerable. This factor is most critical for the development of industries and natural resources, primarily due to significant deviations from the current indicators. Areas with a low degree of vulnerability are located in te zone with minimum estimated runoff changes. However, analyzing in detail the contribution of each component to the integral assessment allows the identification of additional criteria that greatly contribute to the overall picture of the vulnerability of areas to changes in runoff. As for the Belarusian forestry industry, a combination of the reduced runoff and a large wetland area in the Shchara river basin may yield a positive effect, manifesting itself in a possible increase in the forested area and enhanced adaptability of this industry to the changes that are likely to occur [20, 21]. Alternatively, with increasing runoff, the probability of the forested land being transformed into waterlogged areas or wetlands increases the vulnerability of the forestry industry and identifies vulnerable areas in Lithuania. The eastern parts of Belarus, where a significant reduction of summer runoff is forecast and

42 42 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin a well-developed drainage amelioration network is available, are prone to increased occurrence of fires on the drained land, thereby increasing the vulnerability of areas even to a relatively slight reduction in the runoff. In Kaliningrad Oblast, where forested land makes up less than 10 %, the runoff change-related vulnerability of the forestry industry sharply decreases [22]. To assess the vulnerability of industry, the volume of discharged wastewater proved to be a critical factor that contributed to a significant increase in the vulnerability of Belarusian areas to the change in runoff, specifically in the context of the estimated changes in runoff in the summer and autumn. Therefore, industry is rendered highly vulnerable in more than half of the Belarusian areas as its operation is dependent on surface runoff. This necessitates the introduction of advanced water-use technologies in these areas, primarily to increase the efficiency of water recirculation and reuse systems at enterprises. transformed into waterlogged areas under the increased runoff conditions. As for the agricultural sector, apart from a substantial area of farmland, a critical factor is an estimated increase in runoff in specific periods of the year which, all other things being equal, may result in increased vulnerability of the areas in the middle reaches of the Neman River in Belarus. The reduction in the August runoff is a dominant factor for areas in the upper part of the basin in Belarus. As a rule, in areas with a high cadastral valuation of lands, the ratio of ploughed land is over 60 %, which offsets the advantage of high soil bonitet when assessing vulnerability. For Lithuania, where the ratio of ploughed land is significantly smaller compared to that of Belarus, this helps to identify areas of low vulnerability under conditions of a slight change in runoff. As regards the Lithuanian areas with a low degree of vulnerability for industry in the context of the estimated runoff increase, the development of the hydropower industry is a positive factor due to the possibility of reducing flood peaks and also accumulating surface runoff during high-water periods for use during low-water periods in the future. The combination of wetlands and a slight reduction in the runoff helped in the identification of specific low vulnerability areas in Belarus for natural ecosystems. The high vulnerability of other areas in the upper part of the Neman River Basin is related to a high degree of transformation of wetlands into forested land under reduced runoff conditions, while in the middle and lower parts of the basin there exists the risk of forested land being

43 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 43 Chapter 7 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change 7.1. General Principles of Adaptation and Existing Tools in the Sphere of Water Resources Management and Climate Change Adaptation Adaptation to climate change is an essential prerequisite for managing water resources. This requires the formulation and implementation of effective strategies. The basic and most relevant approaches to the identification of strategies for adapting the international Neman River Basin to climate change govern that: the policy of adaptation should be formulated in the context of the integrated water resources management concept, which requires planning at the river basin level, close intersectoral cooperation, involvement of the public and water use optimization ; and also that adaptation is not a one-off measure, but rather an on-going and long-term process integrated into all planning levels [5]. Therefore, the basis for the adaptation of the NRB to climate change resides in the use of a basin approach, subject to which the problems and needs of the basin as a whole are the focus of attention irrespective of their spatial distribution and regardless of which department and territory they are specific to. In addition, basin cooperation mechanisms are proposed to identify and resolve those problems. This provides a broader view of the sources of risk and methods for solving problems in the context of common interests. The principles of climate change adaptation mainly imply that countries, territories and sectors should implement most basin adaptation measures within the framework of their own development and climate change adaptation strategies, also using other national ecological policy tools. For example, the importance of studying climate change is stipulated in the National Strategy of Sustainable Socio-Economic Development in the Republic of Belarus until According to this document: the strategic goal in the field of conservation of the country s water resources consists in enhancing the efficiency of utilization of water resources and improving their quality, whilst maintaining a balance with public needs and possible climate change. Climate change issues are also dealt with in the Water Strategy of the Republic of Belarus until According to the Water Strategy: issues pertaining to the assessment and use of transboundary watercourses within the river basin with consideration for the European approaches and in the context of the climate change adaptation are not fully settled. The National Strategy of Lithuania on Adaptation to Climate Change until 2050 defines basic principles and adaptation goals, including short-term (until 2020), medium-term (until 2030) and long-term (until 2050) goals. The main federal-level ecological policy tools of the Russian Federation in the field of climate change adaptation include the Water Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020 and the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation and Comprehensive Plan for Its Implementation until The principal provisions of the Regional Climate Strategy for Kaliningrad Oblast a strategy for adaptation to climate change were formulated in 2014.

44 44 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin National and regional programs and plans, most of which aim to develop the respective industries at the national level, may be considered as practical mechanisms of climate change adaptation. This includes environmental protection, the housing and public utility sectors, industry, energy, emergency response, and engineer operations to reduce flood-related risks and damage (including by siting new hydraulic engineering structures and retrofitting existing ones) and to develop the monitoring network. To finance their activities, these programs use both the states own resources and funds from international finance organizations. However, both transboundary basin interests as a whole and existing and future climatic trends are not adequately accounted for in these programs. Therefore, a critical goal of adaptation throughout the NRB consists in accounting for the basin-wide interests associated with changing the degree of risk related to climate change within the frameworks of existing mechanisms and processes pursuing their own goals, although these goals may somewhat differ from those related to the adaptation of the entire NRB. Another critical goal is to identify and stimulate a range of actions whose implementation would directly contribute to an increase in stability and climate change adaptation in the basin. Actions that may be implemented using existing and future mechanisms of basin coordination and cooperation are of particular importance in both cases. Therefore, to implement them, there have been proposals not only of strategies and measures based exclusively on national strategies and other ecological policy instruments, as well as national and regional programs, but also those which would contribute as far as possible to resolving the problems associated with adaptation at the basin level. Bilateral agreements between the NRB states that serve as a basis for bilateral cooperation are of great importance in the field of climate change adaptation. These include the following: Agreement between the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus and Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection (signed 14 April 1995); Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and Government of the Republic of Lithuania on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection (29 June 1999); Technical Protocol on Cooperation in the Field of Monitoring and Exchange of Data on Transboundary Surface Waters (signed in 2008 between the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus); Agreement between the Lithuanian Geological Service of the Ministry of Environment and Republican Unitary Enterprise Belarusian Research Geological Exploration Institute (RUE BelNIGRI ), General Characteristics of the Strategic Framework The Strategic Framework has been developed taking into consideration analyses and forecasts of the climatic and hydrological characteristics of the Neman River Basin and the tools in the sphere of water resources management and climate change adaptation that are available with the basin states.

45 Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Neman River Basin 45 In the course of developing the Strategic Framework (Tables 7.1, 7.2), three rounds of consultations were held within the Project. These involved international workshops and an assessment tour of the NRB with the participation of representatives of the UNECE, environmental management bodies, international and national experts, water users concerned and also the mass media and public. The consultations were held in Belarus (Grodno, October 2012; Minsk, March 2013); in Lithuania (Druskininkai, October 2012; Vilnius, May 2013); and also in Kaliningrad Oblast (Kaliningrad, January 2014). Figure 7.1 Workshop in Grodno, Belarus, (October, 2012) Table 7.1 Strategies of Adaptation for Water Resources and Other Related Natural Resources to Climate Change Natural resources Surface water resources Adaptation strategies Effective management of water resources and optimization of water consumption, including regulation of requirements related to agricultural and urban development activities in the river floodplains, in order to reduce the risk and damage from floods and droughts. Monitoring of the situation in the basin, including improvement of the monitoring system for hydrological, hydrodynamic and hydrochemical regimes as well as automation of the monitoring points. Organization of information exchange between the countries on a regular basis. Development of management plans for water resources and flood risks across the basin and regular mapping of the risk of flooding. Development of action plans for emergency situations, implementation of early warning systems, distribution of information (including across the borders) about the danger of floods, and city planning according to flood risk maps. Reduction of pollution from point and non-point sources. Monitoring and retrofitting of hydraulic installations. Rehabilitation of the irrigation and polder systems. Bank stabilization measures. Awareness-raising among the population. Technical re-equipment of hydrologic networks [23].