Experience from the UK: Monitoring, Modelling and Uncertainty

Transcription

1 Experience from the UK: Monitoring, Modelling and Uncertainty Lucy Greenhill Offshore Industries Advisor Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) Symposium: Towards an Environmentally Sound Offshore Wind Energy Deployment, Stralsund, 23 rd January 2012

2 1. Introducing JNCC Statutory advisor to Government on UK and international nature conservation We work on behalf of and in co-operation with the UK s country nature conservation agencies. Marine Area Protection Marine Monitoring Marine Policy Advice Marine Management Advice

3 2. The UK Ambitions - Consented and planned for Round 3 = ~10,000km2 of seabed - Round 4, floating...?

4 CONSENTING PROCESS RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS UNCERTAINTY (Risk) 3. Under Pressure.. EVIDENCE ECONOMIC RECOVERY

5 4. Monitoring Experience in the UK Project specific monitoring required to validate EIA sedimentary and hydrological processes, benthic ecology, electromagnetic fields, noise and vibration, fish, birds and marine mammals. Attached as legally binding conditions to the Licence. Usually consisted of 1 year pre-construction ( baseline ), during construction and 3 years post-construction Before and After Control Impact Studies (BACI)

6 5. Why do we still know so little? Lots of expensive data collected but limited evidence arising. Lack of consistency across projects Objectives poorly defined, lack of focus on issues of concern Difficult to detect change from background variation Lack of scientific review data that has been gathered

7 6. Significant evidence gaps... Impacts to marine mammals (cetaceans and seals) Population level effect of disturbance during piling Impacts to seabirds Actual collision risk Energetic consequences of displacement from feeding areas

8 Risk to marine mammals (cetaceans) - displacement RISK PROGRESS GAP -potential for wide scale displacement over multiple years -Behavioural effects from e.g. Denmark - UK Sound propagation modelling What does it mean at the population level?

9 Characterisation of cetacean abundance and distribution collaborative approach Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling (CREEM)

10 Risk to marine mammals (seals) Modelled cumulative sound exposure levels in the Firth of Forth (Scotland) RISK -Disturbance from haul out sites and important areas (yrs) PROGRESS GAP -Some seal behaviour during construction - Modelling exposure levels not dbht? - Regional population modelling adapted PBR

11 Risk to birds -Displacement from key areas -Collision risk -Gannet 50% displaced... - Collision risk modelling RISK PROGRESS -Avoidance rates -Displacement energetic effects GAPS Sandwich tern density and wind farm proposals, England

12 8. Modelling to bridge the gap 1. Density Estimation 2. Effects modelling 3. Population modelling Estimates of absolute density for basis of EIA Quantifying effects e.g. collision mortality and productivity consequences of displacement 4. Spatial sensitivity models To define thresholds and assess impacts at a population level, with particular focus on Habitats Directive

13 POPULATION MODELLING: PVA / PBR Issues here include: The need for model validation The quality of the information on demographic rates The scale of the population defined within the model Relating impacts on larger populations to SPA colonies to comply with Habitats Directive Need to establish impact thresholds which are compatible with Conservation Objectives.

14 9. Uncertainty We need to get better at managing uncertainty Modelling: Transparent, objective Consenting: Risk management, IPCC guidance on communicating uncertainty 1 Adaptive management approaches Focus on gathering evidence to reduce uncertainty 1 IPCC, July 2005

15 10. Some current research in the UK Avoidance rates turbine mounted cameras Displacement of birds from operational sites using existing data EMF effects on Haddock (results Q3 2012) Population modelling seals in Moray Firth Joint Cetacean Protocol - strategic density modelling of cetacean data

16 11. Recommendations Need more hypothesis driven research to improve evidence base / reduce uncertainty Better collaboration between stakeholders, including Government and industry Develop population models, identify thresholds and acceptability of risk Share ideas for implementation of Habitats Directive to ease consenting processes

17 CONCLUSION Evidence is lacking but we understand the gaps better We need rapid science targeted, robust and collaborative Wider look at Habitats Directive implementation Be certain of uncertainty reduce it, communicate it and manage it

18 Thank you for listening, any questions (now or later...)