Need for Paleo Research Manitoba Hydro

Transcription

1 Need for Paleo Research Manitoba Hydro Bill Girling Resource Planning & Market Analysis Manitoba Hydro Presentation at Paleo Workshop University of Regina March 21st, 2003

2 Outline Overview of Manitoba Hydro s System Manitoba Hydro Planning Criteria Ongoing & Future Research projects Climate Change Issues for ManHydro Need for Paleo research

3 Background Hydropower resource planning System capability engineer Bill Girling - CC Impacts & adaptation Bill Hamlin GHG Mitigation strategies

4 Water Supply comes from: four Provinces two US States 95% Hydro - 2nd only to Hydro-Quebec

5 Nelson - Churchill Drainage Basin Alberta Sas kat chewan Upper Churchill Manit oba Lower Churchill Saskatchewan Nelson River Local Mont ana Red North Dakota Winnipeg South Dakota Minnesota

6 Existing Generation Total Installed Capacity 5209 MW Missi Kettle (1232 MW) Laurie River Notigi Kettle Kelsey Limestone Long Spruce Long Spruce (1023 MW) Limestone (1330 MW) Jenpeg (119 MW) Kelsey (213 MW) Jenpeg Grand Rapids (480 MW) Grand Rapids Winnipeg River Stations (570 MW) Brandon Selkirk Pine Falls Great Falls McArthur Falls Seven Sisters Pointe du Bois Slave Falls Laurie River Stations (11 MW) Selkirk Coal (135 MW) Brandon Coal (96 MW) Brandon CT (271 MW) Control Structures (Missi, Notigi)

7 Local Inflow Reindeer Lake 2500 Saskatchewan River Southern Indian Lake 1000 Churchill River Local Inflow Cedar Lake 2450 Grand Rapids Total Average Energy: GW.h Total Energy Storage: GW.h Missi Outflow Kelsey Lake Winnipeg 8050 Lower Nelson River Upper Nelson River Jenpeg Stephens Lake 175 Winnipeg River Local Inflow Local Inflow Winnipeg River Plants Lake of the Woods 2075 Limestone Long Spruce Kettle Average Annual Energy (GWh/yr) English River Local Inflow Local Inflow 4

8 Nelson-Churchill Water Supply Percent of Average

9 Climate change issues facing Manitoba Hydro Impacts of climate change on long term water supply to our integrated system. Implications of a more extreme climate with greater variability on system operation. Estimating climate change impacts on future projects.

10 Potential Impacts of Climate Change Long term water supply higher evaporation, reduced reservoir storage changing precipitation/runoff patterns Extreme weather impact on system operation, major transmission Impact on energy supply/demand balance Extended Drought

11 Drought of Record Annual Deviations from mean inflow to Nelson River (cfs)

12 Planning Criteria for Supplying Load Firm Capacity - minimum of 12% reserve capacity required over forecast peak load demand Dependable Energy - have adequate energy resources to supply the firm energy demand in the event that the lowest recorded coincident river flow conditions are repeated.

13 Definitions of Drought Drought inflow : Monthly flow value less than mean monthly flow. Energy drought : Energy potential less than the energy demand. Energy deficit: Energy potential insufficient to meet demand.

14 Nelson - Churchill Inflows during Drought Alberta Saskatchewan Upper Churchill 70 % Manitoba Lower Churchill Saskatchewan 60 % Nelson River Local 10 % Montana 45 % Red North Dakota 65 % Winnipeg South Dakota Minnesota

15 Why does Manitoba Hydro fund Critical Drought Research? System-Wide Energy Drought is complex: extensive geographic region can t transpose severe drought Critical drought depends on record length More severe droughts before historical record Regional diversity of Hydrologic Extremes Need probabilistic forecasting of drought

16 Ongoing Drought Research Past/Ongoing R&D Projects Statistical approach using stochastic model Tree-ring analysis (Sauchyn, Bonin) Integrating paleo & statistical (Burn) Pothole lake sediment (Leavitt)

17 Other Related Research Investigation of Lake Winnipeg Glacial (Iso-static) Rebound (Lambert) Bayesian Analysis of Uncertainty in Drought Probability Estimates (Rasmussen)

18 Future Research Projects Continue statistical drought probability analysis & uncertainty estimation. Paleo Projects Lake sediment analysis (Cummings) Red River tree-ring studies (St. George)

19 Lake Sediment Research

20 How can Manitoba Hydro use Paleo Research? Enhance statistical predictions of frequency & severity of drought: Currently 100-yr record for drought probability analysis Identification of more severe droughts before historical record Reconstruct past streamflow records

21 What is needed for PER to be useful to Manitoba Hydro? Link Paleo data with GCM s Clim_Change Impact assessment Indication of cyclic patterns Develop regional estimates of past climate & hydrology Link past extremes to climate drivers Natural GHG causes Solar cycles, lunar cycles? Paleo Website (PARC Internet Map Server)

22 Questions?