Developing Country Actions

Transcription

1 Deveoping Country Actions -Current and Potentia Further Efforts in Major Countries- Jake Schmidt, Internationa Program Manager Center for Cean Air Poicy Diaogue on Future Internationa Actions to Address Goba Cimate Change Paris, France Apri 2006

2 Presentation Overview Emissions eves of deveoping countries» Current eves and which countries are the major emitters» Emissions of Top 25 Goba emitters by sector share» Projections Efforts currenty being undertaken by key deveoping countries» Overview of key efforts» Impact on GHG emissions Concusions

3 GHG Anaysis in Brazi, China, India, and Mexico Assisting Deveoping Country Cimate Negotiators through Anaysis and Diaogue project funded by UK DFID and Hewett Foundation Partners in four countries conducting bottom-up anaysis of GHG emissions projections and mitigation cost of various options for key sectors of the economy.» Brazi: Federa University of Rio de Janeiro, Thema Krug, Braziian Agricutura Research Corporation, and Harodo de Oiveira Machado Fiho» Mexico: Mario Moina Center» China: Tsinghua University» India: The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) Considering two reference scenarios which consider emissions eves with:» Poicies adopted before 2000 (pre-2000 case)» Poicies adopted before 2005 (pre-2005 case)

4 Current GHG Emissions Leves* Non-Annex I countries account for ~47% of goba GHG emissions in 2000 WORLD TOTAL Annex I Tota Non-Annex I Tota MMTCO2 Eectricity Unaocated Autoproducers Other Energy Industries Iron & Stee Chemica & Petrochemica Auminum Cement Paper, Pup and Printing Non-CO2 Industria Processes Other Industries Transport Agricuture Residentia & Commercia Other sectors #REF! Unaocated Non-CO2 Gas *Doesn t incude emissions from and-use change (deforestation). Incuding these changes the distribution, see Appendix. Source: Schmidt et a, forthcoming

5 13 of the Top 25 Highest Emitting Countries in 2000 are non-annex I Countries These 13 deveoping countries account for ~28% of goba GHG emissions» The 12 deveoped countries account for ~37% MMTCO 2 e United States China Russia India Japan Germany Brazi Canada United Kingdom France Itay Korea, Rep. of Mexico Indonesia Austraia Ukraine Iran, Isamic Rep. of Poand Spain South Africa Turkey Saudi Arabia Pakistan Argentina Thaiand Source: Cacuation based upon data in Schmidt et a, forthcoming

6 Top 25 Share of Goba Emissions by Sector 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 24% 92% 1% 32% 45% 40% 22% 58 % 55% 71% 47% 48% 62% 28% Eectricity Iron & Stee Chemica & Petroch... Cement* Paper, Pup and Prin... Road Transport LUCF Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Source: Cacuation based upon data in Schmidt et a, forthcoming Share of Goba GHG Emissions

7 Deveoping Country Emissions are Projected to Grow Non-Annex I country CO2 emissions from fue combustion projected to be arger than Annex I around 2015» China wi account for ~18% of word emissions and India ~5%» Korea, Mexico, & Indonesia each ~2% MMTCO 2 e Annex I Non-Annex I Source: IEA, 2004

8 Deveoping Countries Impementing Measures which Reduce GHG Emissions: China Overa: 11 th Five-Year Pan ( ) cas for improving energy per unit of GDP by 2020» Difficut since it has improved by 77% between , but major focus of a ot of effort Eectricity Sector, incuding: Poicy requires that new coa faciities be >300 MW» Ony ~48% of current generation is from faciities >300 MW Shutting down of 14.2 GW of sma therma units» There are approx faciities <50MW Buiding 27 GW of new nucear capacity by 2020; The Renewabe Energy Law (adopted Feb. 2005)» Sets a goa to have 10% of eectricity from renewabes by 2020 (120 GW of new capacity)» requires power grid operators to purchase resources from registered renewabe energy producers and offers financia incentives for renewabe energy projects; Feed-in tariffs for renewabe energy issued in Apri 2005

9 China Eectricity: Impact of Existing and New Poicies Existing poicies reduce GHG emissions by 80 MTCO2 in New poicies coud reduce emissions by further 56 MTCO2 miion metric tons CO Pre-2000 Pre-2006 Mitigation Scenario Source: CCAP and Tsinghua, forthcoming

10 China Emissions Reduction Efforts (cont.) Industria Sector, incuding: Top-1000 Enterprises Energy-Efficiency Program» These enterprises consume 30% of China s energy» 1000 highest energy-consuming enterprises are to benchmark their energy performance, insta efficient equipment, and attain a 20% efficiency improvement by 2010 Cosed hundreds of sma, iega cement pants» In 1999, faciities accounting for production capacity of 42 miion tonnes were cosed Provided government funds, pubic bonds, and bank oans for instaation of New Suspension Heater kin technoogy on cement faciities

11 China Cement: Impact of Existing and New Poicies Existing poicies reduce GHG emissions by 80 MTCO2 in 2020 New poicies coud reduce emissions by further 36 MTCO2 miion metric tons CO Pre-2000 Pre-2006 Mitigation Scenario Source: CCAP and Tsinghua, forthcoming

12 China Iron & Stee: Impact of Existing Existing poicies reduce GHG emissions by 64 MTCO2 in 2020 miion metric tons CO Pre-2000 Pre-2006 Source: CCAP and Tsinghua, forthcoming

13 China Emissions Reduction Efforts (cont.) Transportation, incuding: Vehice excise taxes based on the vehice engine size, ranging from 1-20%» SUVs are now taxed at 20% (~$8,000 tax), up from 3% 20 cities are deveoping bus rapid transit» e.g., Beijing has one and wi begin construction on two more this year; Hangzhou pans an 11-corridor network in the next 15 years Adopted aggressive vehice efficiency standards in 2004 with two phases» First phase went into effect in 2005 for a new vehices Weight-based standard w/ varying requirements according to weight» Second phase to appy to 2008 vehices» Third phase and standard for ight commercia trucks and passenger vehices w/ more than 9 seats under consideration and deveopment Study under way adopt first in the word standard on heavy-duty commercia vehices» China wi be about 50% of the heavy-duty word feet by 2020

14 China s Vehice Efficiency Standard Source: An and Sauer, 2004

15 Brazi Emissions Reduction Efforts Eectricity, incuding: Program to Encourage Aternative Sources of Energy (PROINFA) aims to increase the participation of wind power, biomass energy and sma hydropower (SHP) in the suppy of the Braziian grid system» First phase pans to add 3,300 MW to the interconnected system by 2006 Long-term power purchasing agreements between Eetrobrás and the IPPser Producers (IPPs) Fisca incentives for each type of renewabe energy (e.g., wind energy subsidy of $ /MWh) Industry, incuding:» Conpet which aims to improve energy efficiency of oi and natura gas use by 25% State-owned oi company is responsibe for providing technica, administrative and financia resources to the Program

16 Brazi Emissions Reduction Efforts (cont.) Transportation, incuding: Proacoo Biofues program began in 70 s in response to oi crisis» Pure ethano cars in the market & a gasoine currenty has between 20-25% ethano Fex fue vehices entered the market in 2003 and in February 2006 accounted for ~77% of car saes» By 2020 these vehices are estimated to account for amost a the vehices in the feet (others wi be gasoho vehices)

17 Brazi Transportation: Impact of Existing and New Poicies Existing poicies reduce GHG emissions by 21 MTCO2 in 2020 New poicies coud reduce emissions by further 8 MTCO2 miion metric tons CO Pre-2000 Pre-2006 Mitigation Scenario Source: CCAP and COPPE, forthcoming

18 Concusions Deveoping countries coud account for majority of goba GHG emissions sometime in the next years.but Some deveoping countries have introduced poicies and programs which wi have a significant impact on emissions» Many done for other reasons besides GHGs energy security, air quaity, and continued competitiveness of their industries For exampe:» Achieving China s goa to improve energy-intensity per GDP by 2010 coud be major achievement» Chinese vehice passenger vehice standard one of the most stringent in the word Pans under deveopment to adopt the word s first efficiency standard for freight vehices» Brazi s ethano program is expected to ead to fex-fue vehices accounting for amost 100% percent of the feet

19 References An, F. and A. Sauer Comparison of Passenger Vehice Fue Economy and GHG Emission Standards around the Word. CCAP and COPPE. Forthcoming. Reducing GHG Emissions in Brazi. Resuts of project Assisting Deveoping Country Cimate Negotiators through Anaysis and Diaogue. CCAP and Tsinghua University. Forthcoming. Reducing GHG Emissions in China. Resuts of project Assisting Deveoping Country Cimate Negotiators through Anaysis and Diaogue. Internationa Energy Agency Word Energy Outook. Schmidt, J., N. Heme, J. Lee, M. Houdashet, N. Höhne, E. Worre. Forthcoming. Sector-based Approach to the Post-2012 Cimate Change Poicy Architecture. Center for Cean Air Poicy.

20 Appendix

21 Current GHG Emissions Leves w/ LUCF* I WORLD TOTAL Annex I Tota Non-Annex I Tota MMTCO2 Eectricity Unaocated Autoproducers Other Energy Industries Iron & Stee Chemica & Petrochemica Auminum Cement Paper, Pup and Printing Non-CO2 Industria Processes Other Industries Transport Agricuture Residentia & Commercia Other sectors LUCF Unaocated Non-CO2 Gas *Incudes emissions from and-use change (deforestation). However, exact deforestation emissions are uncertain and singe year vaues can either be high or ow since deforestation emissions have year to year fuctuations Source: Schmidt et a, forthcoming

22 Top 25 Emitters by Sector Countries TOTAL Countries Eectricity Countries Iron & Stee Countries Chemica & Petrochemica United States 6745 United States 2139 China 290 United States 179 China 4736 China 1291 Russia 91 China 157 Russia 1886 Russia 510 Japan 88 Russia 62 India 1812 India 478 United States 75 India 49 Japan 1253 Japan 326 India 59 Japan 42 Germany 991 Germany 279 Ukraine 38 Germany 41 Brazi 829 South Africa 175 Germany 38 United Arab Emirates 24 Canada 676 Austraia 164 Brazi 25 South Africa 23 United Kingdom 631 United Kingdom 155 South Africa 17 Korea, Rep. of 23 France 524 Poand 150 France 15 Brazi 20 Itay 522 Itay 137 Canada 15 Canada 20 Korea, Rep. of 500 Korea, Rep. of 124 Mexico 14 France 20 Mexico 497 Canada 122 Poand 14 United Kingdom 19 Indonesia 491 Mexico 111 Begium 13 Itay 18 Austraia 487 Ukraine 88 Itay 11 Netherands 16 Ukraine 472 Spain 85 Austraia 9 Mexico 15 Iran, Isamic Rep. of 445 Iran, Isamic Rep. o 68 United Kingdom 9 Iran, Isamic Rep. of 15 Poand 378 Saudi Arabia 65 Czech Repubic 9 Indonesia 14 Spain 373 Turkey 62 Korea, Rep. of 9 Poand 13 South Africa 363 Kazakhstan 58 Spain 8 Venezuea 11 Turkey 353 Indonesia 57 Venezuea 7 Spain 11 Saudi Arabia 333 Czech Repubic 55 Romania 6 Qatar 9 Pakistan 282 Thaiand 49 Netherands 6 Begium 9 Argentina 281 Netherands 47 Indonesia 6 Thaiand 6 Thaiand 249 Greece 43 Turkey 6 Pakistan 6 Top 25 Countries Tota GHG Emissions Annex I Countries Non-Annex I A Top Top 25 Countries Share of Goba Emissions Annex I Countries 37% 55% 47% 48% Non-Annex I 28% 32% 45% 40% A Top 25 65% 87% 92% 88% Source: Schmidt et a, forthcoming

23 Top 25 Emitters by Sector (2) Countries Cement* Countries Paper, Pup and Printing Countries A Transport China 500 United States 51 United States 1721 United States 104 China 23 Japan 253 India 78 Japan 15 China 230 Japan 70 Canada 11 Germany 174 Korea, Rep. of 42 Germany 7 Russia 173 Itay 40 Itay 4 Canada 150 Spain 36 Brazi 4 France 139 Germany 35 France 4 United Kingdom 134 Brazi 33 Korea, Rep. of 4 Brazi 126 Russia 31 United Kingdom 4 India 125 Indonesia 23 Finand 3 Itay 113 Mexico 23 Spain 3 Mexico 100 Thaiand 23 India 2 Spain 92 Turkey 19 Austraia 2 Korea, Rep. of 88 France 18 Indonesia 2 Austraia 75 Poand 15 Russia 2 Iran, Isamic Rep. o 72 Pakistan 14 Sweden 2 Indonesia 62 Egypt 12 Poand 2 Thaiand 46 Iran, Isamic Rep. of 12 Mexico 2 Argentina 44 Greece 11 Austria 1 South Africa 36 Canada 11 Coombia 1 Turkey 35 United Kingdom 10 Switzerand 1 Venezuea 34 Portuga 10 Portuga 1 Netherands 32 Phiippines 9 Netherands 1 Maaysia 31 Saudi Arabia 9 Turkey 1 Saudi Arabia % 71% 58% 24% 86% 95% Source: Schmidt et a, forthcoming

24 Top 25 Emitters by Sector (3) Countries Road Transport Countries LUCF United States Indonesia 2565 Japan Brazi 1373 Germany Maaysia 699 China Myanmar 426 France Congo (DR) 318 India Other Asia* 238 Brazi Zambia 236 United Kingdom Other Africa* 198 Canada Nigeria 195 Itay Peru 187 Russia 99.2 Venezuea 144 Mexico 98.6 Nepa 124 Spain 80.0 Coombia 106 Iran, Isamic Rep. o 71.9 Mexico 97 Korea, Rep. of 65.9 Phiippines 95 Austraia 65.4 Côte d'ivoire 91 Indonesia 56.5 Boivia 84 Thaiand 45.2 Cameroon 77 Argentina 35.9 Canada 65 Venezuea 33.5 Ecuador 59 South Africa 33.3 Guatemaa 57 Turkey 31.4 Other Latin America* 56 Maaysia 30.9 Argentina 55 Saudi Arabia 30.1 Sovak Repubic 54 Netherands 29.1 Nicaragua % 1% 22% 92% 84% 94% Source: Schmidt et a, forthcoming