Flood Forecasting System for Changjiang River

Transcription

1 长江 Changjiang Flood Forecasting System for Changjiang River Yan Huang Bureau of Hydrology Changjiang Water Resources Commission China 8 Dec, 2009 Geneva, WMO

2 Hydro-meteorological monitoring network Hydrological Gauging Site Network Real time data acquisition Meteorological & Hydrological data Hydrological stations Water level gauging site Rain gauge - 24 Automatic monitoring stations 118 Over 1000 rainfall stations

3 Information management Automatic data transferring Satellite Marian Satellite Huangzhuan Datong Shayang Zhekou 潜江 Yuekou Xiantao Hanchuan Hankou Hank information center Huangshi PSTN GPRS GSM Wuxue Lushui reservoir Lushui transition center 681 transition station Bainiqiao Hongxia chongyang From stations to Hankou hydrological sub-center

4 Short-term real-time Flood Forecasting System Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) Hydrological & Hydraulic models

5 Interactive expert FFS platform Time of forecast

6 A comprehensive decision support system short-term Yangtze Flood Control HQ - DMCS Hydraulic model (middle reach) Data Acquisition AMC RMB BOH RMB FCISS Flood control structures d/b rules, protocols, flood mgt information FMIS OAS (Middle Reach) FFS (Middle Reach) FFS (Upper Reach) HMIS BOH HMS Weather, Rainfall forecast hydro-met forecasting Databases Flood Control LAN and database system Support MM5- QPF D.A.S. Flood control structures Hydro-meteorological Data collection, verification and transfer Decision Support System Flood Forecasting & Impact analysis River Management Bureau Bureau of Hydrology

7 Accurate Flood forecasting Lead time (Day) Accuracy (m 3 /s) % 1~5% 2~5% 5~10% Largely affected by rainfall forecasting Di schar ges at Yi chang Discharge (m 3 /s) Obser ved / 6/ 1 04/ 6/ 8 04/ 6/ 15 04/ 6/ 22 04/ 6/ 29 04/ 7/ 6 Ti me

8 Multiple reservoir operation require longer time forecasting Three Gorges Built and in-building reservoirs Need to improve: 1. Meteorological forecasting technology 2.Middle-long term hydrological forecasting technology, approach, model tec.

9 Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) operation - river morphological change CWRC Need to keep monitoring the river physics and recalibrate models Need to improve updating procedures for modelling work 高高 (m) km downstream 起起起 (m) For flood control, power and navigation Storage capacity 39.3 billion m billion m 3 for flood control Power capacity MW 185 m crest elevation, 2,39.5 m long 高高 (m) km downstream 起起起 (m) Morphology change - Erosion at downstream river channels

10 Unclear Climate change trends & characteristics (unpredictability) 600 径 550 流量 500 (mm) 年径流量 平均值 100 年趋势 80 年趋势 60 年趋势 40 年趋势 20 年趋势 年份 A2: A world of independently operating, selfreliant nations. Continuously increasing population. Regionally oriented economic development. Slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income.

11 Uncertainties lack of reservoir operation information Lack of reservoir operation information current the national and regional flood management headquarter are promoting coordination (with hydropower firms) and cooperation on such issue; Integrated reservoir operation is important for water resources redistribution and management which requires longer lead time, thus (1) Middle-long term flood forecasting accuracy needs urgent improvement; (2) Need to improve Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting accuracy;

12 Need to adapt integrated risk management concepts A modern flood protection policy will consider not only safety but also other aspects such as Environment and economy Need to adapt an integrated approach and sustainable policy risk management Social Aspects Environmental Aspects Economic Aspects Risk Map Inundation map 50Year

13 We would like to learn from advanced We are willing to share our experiences and technology Thanks!