PIEPC Meeting #1. Resource Options 3:30-5:00

Transcription

1 PIEPC Meeting #1 Resource Options 3:30-5:00

2 Agenda for Resource Options Resource Types Proposed method to development generic resource blocks Review attributes 3/30/05 Page 2

3 Changes in Energy Planning 1960s-1980s Large load growth Comparing a few large resource options that are studied in detail 1990s Lower load growth Some acquisitions from competitive calls BC Hydro maintain inventory of projects BC Energy Plan Development by private sector Acquisitions from competitive calls 3/30/05 Page 3

4 2004 IEP Resource Options Database Resource Types The resource Options Database is published on the web as part of the 2004 IEP Several different types of resources are profiled: Biomass Fuel Cells Geothermal Solar Small Hydro Tidal Wave Wind In addition, it contains more conventional resources: thermal specific BC Hydro projects, and demand side management.. 3/30/05 Page 4

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6 2004 IEP Resource Options Database Resource Types Thermal Fuel type Conventional Steam Turbine Simple Cycle Combustion Turbine Technology Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Internal Combustion Engine Cogeneration Coal!! Fuel Oil!!!! Diesel!!! Natural Gas!!!!! 3/30/05 Page 6

7 2004 IEP Resource Options Database Resource Types As part of the BC Hydro Public Power and Legacy and Heritage Contract Act introduced in November 2003, provision was made for BC Hydro to develop certain existing resources: Large Hydro - Site C (upon application to gov t) Resource Smart - Revelstoke Unit 5 & 6 - Mica Unit 5 & 6 3/30/05 Page 7

8 2004 IEP Resource Options Database Resource Types Demand Side Management Power Smart - Energy Efficiency Projects - Load Displacement Projects Transmission 3/30/05 Page 8

9 Resource Options from workshop Biomass/coal combinations pumped storage flow cells solar thermal pricing initiatives and other policies(rates) management of distributed generation coal gasification gas flaring at production wells Oil sands (Alberta) industrial DSM Alberta passive or active heating systems demand management (curtailment,efficiency,rates, load displacement, load shifting) 3/30/05 Page 9

10 Attributes from workshop dependable capacity (wind) and dispatchability/firm energy social acceptability fixed vs variable costs, location risk (fuel, cost, volatility, regulatory) reliability (large scale vs small scale distributed generation green vs clean First Nations input Footprint a poor proxy progress in technology development/value of learning cost of information cumulative impact on subsurface,water,air or overlapping tenures flexibility to adjust portfolio vs being locked in water consumption for thermal economic development in BC (BC multiplier) monetize green attributes 3/30/05 Page 10

11 2005 IEP proposed use of database Objective: Develop generic resource blocks to be used as building blocks for portfolios Identify large individual projects (>50 MW dependable capacity) Resource Options Database individual projects Generic Resource Types Small Hydro wind biomass Etc. Input to portfolios 3/30/05 Page 11

12 Proposed Screening Criteria - located in BC Legal and meets policy? No Not included in database Yes Potential Project Identif ied Yes Project located within BC? No Project outside of BC, with f irm Transmission? No Not Included in Resource Options Database Yes Yes 3/30/05 Page 12

13 Proposed Screening Criteria - load displacement and CBG Yes Load Displacement project? Yes PowerSmart Projects! Cogeneration projects, e.g. Crof ton and Elk Falls - Power Cogeneration projects! Load displacement projects! NorskeCanada Energy Project No Backup Generation at Site? Yes Backup Generation at Site! Diesel Generator! Oil f ired Simple Cy cle Combustion Turbine! Natural Gas and Diesel f ired Internal Combustion Engine No Portfolio Building Blocks 3/30/05 Page 13

14 Proposed Screening Criteria - net metering / near commercial No Greater than 50kW in size? No Net Metering Projects! Solar! Microturbines Yes Commercial Technology? No Near Commercial Technology Projects! Wav e! Tidal! Fuel Cells Yes 3/30/05 Page 14

15 Proposed Screening Criteria - verified /actively investigated Yes Potential Resource Verif ied? No Portfolio Building Blocks Yes Future Resource Options list! Geothermal (unexplored projects)! Wind projects without monitoring data Project Activ ely Inv estigated? Yes No Generic Resource Blocks! Small and Large Hy dro! Wind projects with monitoring! Geothermal projects with exploration wells! Combined Cy cle Gas Turbines! Coal plants! ResourceSmart Projects 3/30/05 Page 15

16 Results of Screening Criteria 7 groups of projects develop generic blocks for: - Small hydro, medium hydro,wind, biomass, geothermal - Generic blocks include price, volume, other attributes List of individual projects > 50 MW dependable capacity: 3/30/05 Page 16

17 Net-metering Potential Estimated Capacity of Net Metering 12,000 Cumulative Capacity (KW) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Year 3/30/05 Page 17

18 2004 IEP Resource Options Database Small Hydro Supply Curve Small Hydro 140 Unit Energy Cost ($/MWh) Annual Average Energy (GWh) 3/30/05 Page 18

19 Resource Technical Input Data 3/30/05 Page 19

20 Resource Technical Input Data Monthly Energy: example small hydro 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% April May June July August September October November December January February March Coastal Small Hydro Interior Small Hydro Load 3/30/05 Page 20

21 Environmental Input Data Footprint: attribute that accounts for land impacts Database tracks» Inundated Area» Transmission line right-of-way» Pipe line right-of-way» Site footprint» Penstock footprint for small hydro» New roads for access to the site Footprint attribute in portfolios was some of above list Site footprint for wind based on permitted area Site footprint for geothermal based on area available for development (thermal reserve) GHG and Local emissions (NOx, SOx, PM, VOC) (tonnes/gwh) 3/30/05 Page 21

22 Social Input Data Jobs: construction jobs (person years) permanent full-time equivalents 3/30/05 Page 22

23 Resource Cost Input Data 3/30/05 Page 23

24 Unit Cost Calculations Unit Energy Cost (UEC) For resources that predominantly provide energy $/MWh Unit Capacity Cost (UCC) For resources that predominantly provide dependable capacity $/kw-yr Applicable to: Supply and DSM resources BC Hydro and IPP resources 3/30/05 Page 24

25 UEC/ UCC & Portfolios Resource Options Database Resource Options Report IEP Portfolio Analysis Dispatchable Units Capital Cost Operating Cost Firm Energy Average Energy Dependable Capacity Dispatchable Units UEC $/MWh UCC $/kw-yr Dispatchable Units Capital Cost Operating Cost Calculate Dispatch Dependable Capacity Non-dispatchable units Capital Cost Operating Cost Monthly Energy Profile Firm Energy Average Energy Dependable Capacity Non-dispatchable Units UEC $/MWh UCC $/kw-yr Non-dispatchable Units UEC $/MWh Monthly Energy Profile Dependable Capacity 3/30/05 Page 25

26 Unit Cost Adjustments for Resource Options Report to reflect Portfolio Analysis Technical Characteristic Capture as Adjustment to UEC or UCC? Captured in Portfolio Analysis? Dependable Capacity yes yes Energy contribution of Capacity Resources Incremental Transmission Losses Incremental Bulk Transmission System Costs Impact on System Flexibility yes no no no yes yes yes Monthly energy profile: yes Daily/hourly profile : No Dispatchable: Partial 3/30/05 Page 26

27 Planning Site Unit Costs BCUC - planning estimates of +/- 35% 2004 UEC/UCC calculations were complex For propose a simplified planning level process Evaluate based on pre-tax cash flow and discount rate Project Life: Economic Life for BC Hydro Projects Contract Life for IPP projects Provide results on Resource Options Report with and without provincial transfer payments 3/30/05 Page 27

28 Results of Simplified Model vs 2004 IEP Detailed Financial Model Unit Energy Cost $/MWh (real $2003) Detailed IPP Financial model (assumptions: after tax ROI, tax rate, D/E ratios, debt terms, tax deferrals etc) Sample Small Hydro Project $91/MWh Wind project $112/MWh Simplified unit cost model (using pretax WACC) Recommendation: Simplified unit cost method using pre-tax cashflows and pre-tax discount rate is appropriate to planning level studies 3/30/05 Page 28