Fossil Fuel Emissions Information. Fossil Fuel Combustion and the Economics of Energy

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1 Fossil Fuel Emissions Information Fossil Fuel Combustion and the Economics of Energy For more information, please see the emissions readings on the AT76 web site Tabulations of emissions by country: Distribution within country by political subunit and population density Oak Ridge National Lab (Greg Marland) Andres et al (1996) US DoE Energy Information Administration 1

2 Zonal Mean Fossil Fuel Emissions Emissions by Source (EDGAR) Steady increase in most zones Shift toward south over time Developing world Post-soviet collapse Emissions by Source (EDGAR) Emissions by Source (EDGAR) 2

3 Emissions by Source (EDGAR) Emissions by Source (EDGAR) Oil Reserves Oil Consumption billions of barrels Crude Oil Reserves: 21 Sources: Oil and Gas Journal and World Oil to first order, all the oil is in Saudi Arabia (26%) 64% in top 5 countries 88% in these 13 countries US consumption is about 7.3 B bbl/yr billions of barrels 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Oil Consumption: 22 Saudi Arabia Iraq Kuwait Iran nited Arab Emirates Venezuela Russia Libya Mexico China Nigeria United States US Europe Japan Other ermany. Korea Canada France Italy UK 3

4 Oil Consumption by Region US Options for the Future Persian Gulf imports are currently ~ 2 M bbl/day ~73 M bbl/yr) ANWR reserves are 4-12 B bbl (highly uncertain) ~1 years of Persian Gulf supply Source: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Natural Gas Reserves US Natural Gas Consumption trillions of cubic feet Natural Gas Reserves: 21 Sources: Oil and Gas Journal and World Oil Russia and Iran dominate gas reserves World consumption ~ 84 Tcf/yr US uses ~ 22 World reserves ~ 6 yrs of current demand Russia Iran Qatar Saudi Arabia nited Arab Emirates United States Algeria Venezuela Nigeria Other Iraq Indonesia 4

5 Coal Reserves US Electricity Generation 3, Coal Reserves: 21 Sources: Oil and Gas Journal and World Oil US, Russia, and China millions of tons 25, 2, 15, 1, Very different distribution than petroleum goes ~ like land area US uses ~ 1 billion tons/yr 5, World reserves ~2 years of current demand United States ormer U.S.S.R. China Australia Germany India South Africa Poland Canada Indonesia United Kingdom Mexico Others Nuclear Power US Energy Use by Source billions of kw-hrs Fourth consecutive year of record power generation levels during 22, despite declining number of plants No new reactors ordered in US since 1978 (TMI) Capacity: US, France, Japan, Germany 5

6 Emissions and Stabilization Climate Change Technology Program: An Overview Ultimately, net global GHG emissions must sharply decline and even approach zero to achieve stabilization David K. Garman Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of Energy December 3, 22 Emissions Stabilization Carbon Emitting Sources Dominate Carbon-Emitting Energy Sources Oil 39% Natural Gas 24% Coal 23% Non-Emitting* Sources Nuclear 8% Renewable 7% * Not including carbon emissions associated with component manufacturing, uranium enrichment, ethanol production, short-term cycles, etc. Price of electricity from gridconnected PV systems are 2 to 3 /kwh Down from $2./kWh in 198 Compare to avg retail price of electricity today = 6.8 /kwh 22 R&D goal is 6 /kwh Solar Photovoltaic 6

7 Wind Energy Current cost is 4-6 /kwh in best regimes Geothermal Current capacity is roughly 2,8 MW in US; 8, MW worldwide Current cost is 5 to 8 /kwh Down from 15 /kwh in goal: 3-5 /kwh Down from 8 /kwh in 198s) 1.7 /kwh PTC makes wind competitive 21 R&D goal is 3 /kwh (unsubsidized) in class 4 wind areas (present in 37 states) Active Sequestration Biomass Grid-connected capacity 6,5 MW in 2 (mostly forest products industry CHP) Biopower electricity prices generally range from 8 to 12 /kwh Down from 2 /kwh in 198) 21 goal 5.5 /kwh Large Potential Worldwide Storage Capacity 1, 1, Potential Capacity Range 6, 5, Capacity (Gigatons) 4, 3, 2, 1, Deep Saline Depleted Depleted Coal Ocean Reservoirs Oil Gas Seams Reservoirs Reservoirs Storage Option Annual World Emissions 6.2 Gigatons Storage Options: IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Program; Advanced Resources International estimates for coal seams World Emissions: International Energy Outlook 2, Table A1 7

8 Technology Challenges Lower capture and sequestration costs Current costs: $1-3/ton of carbon emissions avoided 215 Goal: $1 or less/ton Assess various methods Active and depleted oil and gas reservoirs Deep brine/saline aquifers Deep coal seams/coal bed methane formations 8