Adapting to Climate Change in Wisconsin: Implications for the Electric Sector

Transcription

1 Adapting to Climate Change in Wisconsin: Implications for the Electric Sector Dick Bratcher Senior Principal Consultant KEMA, Inc. Presented at the workshop Our Changing Climate and Adaptation: The Energy Industry Perspective Wisconsin Public Utilities Institute 22 Sep 2010

2 Our profile. Incorporated in 1927, 83 years of experience you can trust Headquartered in Arnhem, the Netherlands Locations and representation in over 20 countries Customers on all continents More than 1,600 people Net sales in 2009:! million

3 Our Services & Customers. Services Consulting services, technical & operational services Inspections, assessments, testing & certification Research & innovation Customers Energy supply industry Energy intensive users (Power equipment) manufacturers Transportation and public safety agencies Financial institutions and development banks Authorities and regulators

4 Covering the entire energy value chain.

5 Objectives for This Presentation Provide some structure for thinking about the issue of electric sector adaptation to climate change Stimulate discussion about what electricity companies should be thinking about vis-à-vis adapting to climate change

6 This Issue isn t New Utilities' managers and planners require preliminary estimates of the timing, form and magnitudes of the potential impacts of climate change as a starting point for understanding and management of these risks. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Electric Utilities, Electric Power Research Institute, 1995

7 Perceived Risk Levels Climate Changes Your Business. KPMG. 2008

8 Risk Preparedness Framework (All Risks) Climate Changes Your Business. KPMG. 2008

9 Preparing for Potential Impacts of Climate Change is a Risk Management Issue Risk probability of an event occurring x consequences of the event Management Options Mitigation An action that can reduce probability (or severity) of consequences Adaptation Given that a consequence occurs, an action that reduces negative impact

10 Preparing for Potential Impacts of Climate Change is a Risk Management Issue Risk probability of an event occurring x consequences of the event Management Options Mitigation An action that can reduce probability (or severity) of consequences Adaptation What climaterelated events are important for electricity companies? Given that a consequence occurs, an action that reduces negative impact

11 Preparing for Potential Impacts of Climate Change is a Risk Management Issue Risk probability of an event occurring x consequences of the event Management Options Mitigation How likely are those events? An action that can reduce probability (or severity) of consequences Adaptation Given that a consequence occurs, an action that reduces negative impact

12 Preparing for Potential Impacts of Climate Change is a Risk Management Issue Risk probability of an event occurring x consequences of the event Management Options Mitigation An action that can reduce probability (or severity) of consequences Adaptation Are the consequences severe enough to affect today s asset management Given that a consequence occurs, an action that reduces negative impact or operational decisions?

13 Risk Management Framework Climate change Evaluation Actions Problem/ Context Engage Stakeholders Decisions Risks Options Events? Probabilities? Consequences? Demand-side Supply-side Energy delivery Integration Graphic: Adapted from National Research Council Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process. National Academy Press, Washington,

14 Where are We Now? Problem/ Context Evaluation Engage Stakeholders Risks Actions Options Decisions Graphic: National Research Council Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process. National Academy Press, Washington,

15 Where are We Now? Problem/ Context Evaluation Engage Stakeholders Risks Actions Options Decisions Graphic: National Research Council Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process. National Academy Press, Washington,

16 Where are We Now? Problem/ Context Evaluation Engage Stakeholders Risks Actions Options Decisions Graphic: National Research Council Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process. National Academy Press, Washington,

17 Where are We Now? Problem/ Context Evaluation Engage Stakeholders Risks Actions Decisions Options $ Graphic: National Research Council Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process. National Academy Press, Washington,

18 Where are We Now? Risks? Benefits of Action? Costs? Evaluation Problem/ Context Engage Stakeholders Risks Actions Decisions Options $ Graphic: National Research Council Risk assessment in the federal government. Managing the process. National Academy Press, Washington,

19 Risk Management Options Mitigation Adaptation Reduction in scientific uncertainty Define risks better Define benefits of action better Technology development Reduce costs Risks? Benefits of Action? Costs?

20 WICCI Projections Mid-21 st Century Wisconsin Climate Annual average warming by 4-9 F; most pronounced during winter More very hot days Fewer very cold days More winter precipitation Summer precipitation +/-? More intense precipitation events

21 WICCI Projections Mid-21 st Century Wisconsin Climate Event Annual average warming by 4-9 F; most pronounced during winter Implications Reduced heating loads Increased cooling loads Potential adaptive actions Increase baseload generating capacity

22 WICCI Projections Mid-21 st Century Wisconsin Climate Event More very hot days Implications Increased peak demand T&D losses Potential adaptive actions Add peaking capacity

23 WICCI Projections Mid-21 st Century Wisconsin Climate Event Fewer very cold days Implications Minor reduction in demand Potential adaptive actions Minor changes in dispatch

24 WICCI Projections Mid-21 st Century Wisconsin Climate Event More winter precipitation Implications Increased hydro storage? Potential adaptive actions Increase hydro dispatch

25 WICCI Projections Mid-21 st Century Wisconsin Climate Event Summer precipitation could increase or decrease Implications Depends on which direction Increase may not have much impact Severe decrease could affect power generation due to availability and temperature of cooling water Potential adaptive actions Decrease reliance on once-through cooling

26 WICCI Projections Mid-21 st Century Wisconsin Climate Event More intense precipitation events Implications Flooding of power system facilities Wind damage to T&D facilities Potential adaptive actions Harden infrastructure

27 Indirect Events Increased electrification in response to reducing carbon emissions from other sectors (e.g., transporation) leads to higher overall demand for electricity

28 Electric Share of Primary Energy Source: Electric Power Research Institute

29 Indirect Events Increased electrification leads to higher demand Population shifts back to more northerly states increase demand

30 End sheet Thank you for your attention.

31 Breakout Sessions Land and Vegetation Water Air Temperature Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events